Redskin 2010 Season Truths

Believe it or not, the NFL season is less than 3 days away. With the help of Football Outsiders Almanac 2010, it is high time to tell you exactly what is going to happen our Skin this season.

My initial thought was that suck, won 4 games last year, and haven't improved much. Our defense has been our strength for several seasons, and as excited as I am about a new defensive coordinator, our personnel are better suited for a 4-3, and think the D might be slightly worse this year. Sure, we got McNabb, but he is only marginally better than Campbell, and we haven't upgraded anywhere else on offense. I think Kyle Shanahan helps too, but only see a modest upgrade here. Balancing the D and O together, I see a team that might be slightly improved, but not much different from last year. If we won 4 games last year, 2 more wins seems about right, when accounting for the upgrade on Jim Zorn.

That was until I read FO's tasty tidbit:

"The Redskins should reach the playoffs this year: They are better than they were last season, and they weren’t as bad last season as their record suggests. They fell well below their Estimated Win total of 7.3 in 2009, underperforming because of Zorn’s dreadful coaching and some special teams lapses. Zorn’s ineffectuality as a leader and strategist was evident in early season losses to the woeful Lions (the Redskins were 2-of-10 on third downs, committed 97 yards in penalties, and allowed three straight drives for a combined 41 Lions offensive plays) and Chiefs (eight three-andout drives against an opponent that couldn’t score a touchdown). If Shaun Suisham could kick straight, the Redskins would have beaten the Cowboys in Week 11, and a special-teams fumble provided the margin of victory for the Saints in Week 13. The switch from Zorn-Campbell to Shanahan-McNabb will get the Redskins to snap back to that seven-win level and then buy them an extra win or two. A schedule full of Rams, Buccaneers, and Lions gives them another boost...The Redskins will have an offense close to league average and a solid 3-4 defense that has the right personnel for the system...Barring a Week 1 McNabb injury, the Redskins are a safe bet to compete for a wild card, if not win their division.

Holy crap! That's right, with a semi-competent coach and normal luck, we would have won 7 games last year. FO agrees with me that this team will be about 2 games better, but is using a much higher baseline. Running through the schedule though, I still having trouble finding 9 wins. Let's say we beat the Rams, Bucs, Lions, Bears, and Jags, and go 2-4 in the division given that Dallas is a superior team, and the Giants and Eagles are no pushovers. Then let's assume we lose to the Colts, Packers, and Vikings (although Viking injuries might push them into the W column). That gives us a 7-7 record with games against the Texans and Titans not counted. Maybe the Skins beat the Texans at FedEx and lose at Tennessee to go 8-8. We still need to find 1 more win, and that is if we don't slip up against any of the supposedly inferior teams. Maybe we go 3-3 in the division, or can sneak out a game in Tennessee or against the Vikings, but 9 wins is a stretch for me. That said, in the metrics and I trust, and with McNabb ready for week 1, this team can legitimately talk about playoffs.

Contenders for the NFC East crown - just when I thought I was out, they pull me right back in! Don't look now, but it's Dallas week!

(Image courtesy of harryhogfootball.com)

Redskins on Hard Knocks - D******* Hall is No Cromartie

I watch Hard Knocks anyway, but with the Jets playing the Skins on this week's episode, I was downright giddy. For those who haven't been watching, you should be. Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromartie have been can't miss, most notably this now infamous Cromartie scene describing all of his children. If you've seen it, watch again:

Antonio Cromartie And His Kids - watch more funny videos

There wasn't much Redskin talk before the game in the Jets camp except that they seem to think they are the most talented team in the league and all that ra ra stuff. Nick Mangold did get on Fat Albert after one of the first plays of the game:
Mangold: "You're looking spry out there with all that conditioning."
Fat Albert: They're trying to kill me right now."

Okay, maybe we shouldn't be on Hard Knocks next year..... However, there was a gem dropped by Rex Ryan on D******* Hall. At the end of LaDainian Tomlinson's huge 1st quarter run (which I replayed several times and believe the biggest culprit to be Laron Landry), D******* Hall finishes an Andre Carter tackle at the 50 yard line. That much was already seared in my brain, but what I didn't notice on Friday was when getting up, Hall gets a little feisty and starts going after Jet WR Jerrico Cotchery, right near Rex Ryan. The Jets massive coach then drops this:

"Hey, tackle him at the line of scrimmage, you can't tackle him 50 yards down the field. Hey, you ain't here to tackle nobody, what are you talking about? That's why my brother got rid of your ass."

Splendid! Ryan is referring to his brother Rob Ryan, the former D-Coordinator in Oakland. Hall did get a little redemption by picking off a Dirty Sanchez pass later, but he will never get redemption for being cut 8 games into his $70 million contract by the Raiders!........oh wait, we gave him 6 years and $55 million? Crap.

Quotes courtesy of my DVR box