Will Andre's Giants Crush the Cult of Colt?!?

So I already ran a piece comparing Colt Brennan to Chase Daniel, but the new kid on the block felt left-out, and my Mom always told me I should include the new guys who don't know anybody.

Enter Andre Woodson, maybe just a source of information on the Giant offense for week 1, but also maybe the Redskins next young QB (shutup Coughlin, you brought in Nemo in a blatant attempt to dig up some intel). At least according to the Zornstar, we considered taking him instead of Colt, until the G-women scooped him up. Instead of the Cult of Colt, would it have been Andre's Giants, but I digress?

As mentioned before, the 2 key stats from Football Outsiders for projecting college QBs are games started in college and completion %. Here are the numbers:

-38 games started (3 year starter), a career 61.9% passer(791/1278), and age 25 in 2009.

The games started figure is nice to see, but the completion % isn't exactly eye-popping. Woodson's predecessor and succesors don't supply much context either, as he was preceeded by a running QB, Shane Boyd, who only completed 52.5% of his passes Woodson's Freshman year. Last year, the Wildcat QBs collectively mustered a pathetic 54.7%. So Woodson did outperform his comparables, but it is hard to say exactly if that difference is significant. In 2008, Football Outsiders indicated that Woodson was a bit rough around the edges, but would have time to develop on the defending Super Bowl Chumps. This year, FO prophetically stated,

"Woodson still has a great arm, but efforts to change his mechanics and speed up his delivery while improving his accuracy haven't taken. With the existing coaching staff sour on him, Woodson's likely to lose his roster spot to Rhett Bhomar in training camp."

Woodson's profile is actually very similar to that of Chase Daniel: both started for 3 years, outperformed their comparables by about 5% in completion rate, were preceeded by a running QB that makes analysis difficult, and were the QB of the best team in their respective school's history. That said, the 'eyeball scouting' flaws couldn't be more different. Woodson is big and athletic, and suffers from a huge windup, a little like younger JC and a lot like Byron Leftwich. Woodson's other big flaw is that the offense he ran at KU was remarkably simple, but this is also something Chase Daniel is fighting, as the Mizzou offense was completely different from a pro-style offense, which is part of what hurt Jeremy Maclin on draft day.

What does this all mean? The metrics for all of these guys are similar, with the only big differentiator being age; Daniel is 2 years younger than Woodson, and 3 years younger than Colt. Overall, I'd say that given Woodson and Colt have already struggled in the NFL and won't be getting a significant chance to play until they are at least 26 and 27, I don't see either of them amounting to much. Chase Daniel wasn't Johnny Unitas this preseason, but he has a few more years to figure things out, and is already playing on a similar level to the other 2.

Woodson could provide the key to beating the Giants ("....Eli can't stand being called a chubby chaser..."), but is not an improvement over what we already have in Colt, and is a bit of a downgrade, long-term, over Chase Daniel.

Should the Skins Not Have Chased Daniel?

Embarrassingly bad wordplay aside, for those of you who do not read Football Outsiders (FO), firstly, you should start reading them, and secondly, the writers have devised an accurate system for predicting the pro success of college QBs, called the Lewin Career Forecaster. The system is actually pretty simple; after running all kinds of ideas through regression analysis, it turns out that games started in college and completion percentage are the 2 stats that matter, that's it. Not TD passes, wins, INTs, or anything else, and to be clear, completion % is relative to that of other QBs at the school to account for consistently high-scoring spread offenses or QBs coming from bad teams. The system is only applied to QBs selected in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft, so as to incorporate some eyball scouting.

This metric system isn't foolproof: FO did list Colt Brennan as the top QB prospect going into the 2007 college season due to his absurd production at Hawaii, but did note that his production could only go down in his senior season. The 2007 FO annual book also said about JC, "This year he is ready to make the leap to Pro Bowl-level performance, firmly establishing himself as the best quarterback to come out of the 2005 draft." His weak competition from that draft (Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) aside, maybe this is one of the reasons the rookie QB projection was dropped from the 2009 edition of the FO book. In 2008, FO was still bullish on Colt, particularly as a fit in a West Coast Offense, but does note that the system works best for QBs taken in the top-2 rounds of the draft. This year, FO states "...there is room for encouragement.", but also notes that Brennan "...doesn't have the the arm, or feel for play-action..." to play outside of a West Coast Offense.

Using this system, we should be able to determine whether the Skins made the right choice in dropping Chase Daniel. Unfortunately, FO only ran their projections for college QBs in the 2006 and 2007 editions of their book, so I did a little research to create this comparison:

Chase Daniel - 40 games started (3 year starter), 68.0% (1094/1584), age 23 season in 2009
Colt Brennan - 37 games started (3 year starter), 70.4% (1115/1584), age 26 season in 2009

Not much difference looking at the stats, the biggest difference is the age, which indicates that Colt is running out of time to 'figure it out', whereas Daniel has a season or 2 to learn the ropes.

Both of these guys have great completion rates, but how do they compare to the QBs preceeding them? Colt followed a guy whose name might ring a bell, Timmy Chang, who holds the NCAA all-time passing yardage mark, but what concerns this discussion is just his completion %. Chang's last 2 seasons where 58.7% in 2003, and 59.5% in 2004. In 2008, Colt was followed primarily by Greg Alexander, who was up to 62.9%, although the Hawaii QB group as a whole combined for 59.2%. These are all solid completion rates, but well below the standard set by Colt.

Chase Daniel is a bit tougher to evaluate, as his predecessor was Brad Smith, who is in the NFL, but as a WR for the Jets. Smith managed 59.4% in 2005 and 51.8% in 2004, but was a running quarterback, so not comparable to Daniel. Blaine Gabbert, a top recruit is following Daniel now, and was at 75.8% in his first game this season and should provide a much better barometer of Chase Daniel's collegiate performance.

In conclusion, we have 2 qbs with similar collegiate stats. Colt Brennan significantly outperformed his predecessor and successor, whereas Chase Daniel does not have a basis for comparison yet. On the other hand, Chase Daniel is 3 years younger than Colt Brennan, and the history of QBs suddenly putting it together with limited experience at age 26 or later is not strong.

My take is that the Skins didn't love either guy but have a fan-favorite and teammate-favorite who has experience in the system. But what if Chase Daniel had been around last year to become the fan favorite 3rd QB (always happens), and garner the friendship and trust of his teammates? Daniel has the better chance of success given his age, and will now learn the ropes behind fellow undersized QB Drew Brees in New Orleans. I don't think we just let go of the next Tom Brady, but we probably did hold on to the wrong guy. Colt had an "injury" that allows us to keep him without using a roster spot - couldn't we invent an injury for Chase Daniel?

(Image courtesy of wai.redskins.com)

The Cult of Colt Survives, I Think

The news has just been leaked, the big Redskins 3rd qb question has finally been answered: Chase Daniel will be cut, which leaves Colt Brennan and the Cult of Colt to the spoils.............well, kinda.......Colt will actually not see the field either this season, as he is being placed on injured reserve.

So basically the whole preseason 3rd qb battle was much ado about nothing, as the Skins will only have 2 qbs on the active roster. To me, this sounds like the Skins have found a way to cheat the system. Brennan sounds like and looked like he is physically able to play (awful performance aside) and thus be part of the 53-man roster. I think the Skins are putting Brennan on IR to give them 1 more season to evaluate him without using precious roster space on a guy they do not want playing in a real game. I am actually dissapointed that Redskins Insider Jason Reid has yet to discuss this distinct possibility; I don't think Jason La Canfora would have let the Skins slide. Jason Reid is pretty new at this gig, so maybe he is scared of his ruining his relationships with key Redskin sources at the expense of good journalism.

This seems like a clever move by the Skins, but does leave us thin at qb behind a creaky offensive line. The Colts did this recently, but have a much better o-line and the best qb on the planet. So what happens if, knock on wood, Campbell tears his knee? We would need to sign someone to backup Collins, and my guess is that Chase Daniel would have to be considered for that job given that he is the only guy available who has spent time in the system.

Keeping 2 qbs is also great news for local-boys Marcus Mason and Bryon Westbrook, as well as LB Darrel Young.

(Image courtesy of hogshaven.com)

Hey Colt Brennan! Your Nice Warm Glass of SHUT THE HELL UP is Ready

One thing Joe Gibbs never did as a coach was allow his intentions or back-up plans leak to the public. Especially not through quarterbacks. Which is why it's sort of unnerving to hear these words come from Colt Brennan's mouth. Per PFT (transcribing a radio interview):

"I gotta step in this year. They've already made it clear that they're going to play me a ton in the pre-season and we gotta play four very talented teams and talented defenses and that's going to be my test.

"Right now it seems like it's in everyone's hands. For Jason Campbell it's his last year, it's in his hands to go out and earn that second contract and earn that for him. And for me in the preseason it's my chance to go out there for the second year and prove that I belong and have a great preseason and show that I belong and maybe could be a starter one day."

At cursory glance, no real surprises here. A recently drafted QB should get a chance to play in preseason games. Brennan is still an unknown commodity and what if, god forbid, Campbell and Collins go down?

Colt Brennan destroying 6th-stringers in 2008 preseason. Image via MonkeyinmyMind.

On the other hand, Colt, shut the hell up. This is not the time, nor the team, nor the QB situation, to say anything other than: "Jason Campbell is the starter. I suckle at his teet of awesome. I'm preparing to be the best back-up/third stringer I can be. Do not go out and buy my jersey."

There's a time and a place for QB swagger. I'm glad to see Colt's still got it - lord knows you need it to suceed in The League. I just don't think that time is now. Look Colt: your #1 QB has an 800 pound gorilla of expectations on his back, is playing for his career, and is coming off of an off-season in which his owner and GM went and stabbed him in the back. Twice. His coach has hardly given him ringing endrosements and - et tu, Brute? - met with Sexy Mark Sanchez in a pre-draft dinner with Snyder & Co. You've got a modest following fans just clamoring to get rid of Campbell and have you start, so you know anything you say will cause a stir. What are you doing?

Now you've got idiots like PFT's Mike Florio speculating that you're in the plans for the regular season, that Zorn is so afraid of Snyder's wrath that he'll try to appease Snyder by irrationally benching Campbell at an inopportune time. Say, midseason. And how can you fault such speculation? Snyder has proven his taste for meddling with personnel, and spent this whole offseason undermining Campbell. Is it a stretch to take a harmless quote from the young QB waiting in the wings and run with it? This is the sort of thing Gibbs worked hard to avoid. Your starting QB just doesn't need more noise out there about his job than he's already dealing with.

And hey, maybe it's all true. Maybe the coaches are whispering to Colt that they expect him to be the starter by Week 8. But that shit needs to remain in house right now. I'm glad to see Brennan has ambitions - I'd be worried if he didn't. But sometimes you just shut your trap and support your teammates. If there's a time to do that it's now, and if there's a player who needs the support desperately, it's Jason Campbell.