The Thinking Man's Take on the McNabb Contract

A loss like that almost makes you forget that the Skins made a franchise-altering decision by giving Donovan McNabb an extension. But really, this contract holds much greater importance for the franchise than Michael Vick looking like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl.

Unfortunately for us long suffering fans, this decision is an absolutely awful one, and a reflection that past mistakes are continuing. The idiocy behind this decision goes way deeper than money.

First, I want go back to this summer, when the Skins decided to drop Jason Campbell and trade for McNabb. The Skins stubborn refusal to rebuild seemed poised to change with a new GM and Coach, but as we all know, there is something in the water around Ashburn...and by something in the water I mean Dan Snyder's kool-aid.

The Skins were 4-12, low on draft picks and in obvious of an absolute teardown. Instead? The team decided to trade a 2nd and what I believe will be a 4th round pick for a 33 year-old quarterback who ranked as very mediocre last year. By Football Outsiders metrics, in 2009, McNabb ranked 20th on a per play basis and 16th in total production. By the less telling quarterback rating, McNabb ranked 12th last year. You can sell the leadership angle all you want, but 33 years old and mediocre with declining production is not a good idea. There is no rejuvenation machine.

Meanwhile, the Skins already had a mediocre guy in JC. A 28 year old who in 2009 was 25th on a per play basis, 20th in total production, and 15th in QB rating. Campbell's 2009 numbers are worse than McNabb's, but he was playing with one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. If you want to bring up McNabb's leadership, then you have to be open to the counter that Campbell might have more growth left in him than the average 28 year old QB, as someone whose literally had to learn a different offense for every of his football life since his freshman year at Auburn. I could go into some guestimating that Campbell and McNabb's respective performances last year were not very different, while Campbell was/is cheaper and younger.

Fortunately, Football Outsiders decided to tackle this very subject the day before the McNabb deal was signed. For those of you without Insider, FO uses 'similarity scores' to find comparable players, and Campbell's 2007-2009 stretch shows a lot of players, "on the verge of something great, or at least prepared for multiyear stretches with high levels of performance." Meanwhile, McNabb's 2007-2009 compares to a bunch of guys who, "were about to see serious downturns in starting time and overall production." These are not 100% predictive measures, but strong indicators. As FO states, "Is McNabb headed for a similar downturn? Prorated to a 16-game schedule, his 2010 stats certainly indicate it." Yeah, we noticed. But wait, there's more,

"The Redskins may have wished for the McNabb who came of age a decade ago, but again, it could be argued that they already had that player and let him go. When running similarity scores for McNabb's three-year period from 2002 through 2004 -- you know, the one that included three conference championships and ended in a Super Bowl -- the comparisons are even more interesting. Behind the Steve McNair of 2001, the second-closest comparison sticks out like a sore thumb: Jason Campbell, 2009."  

Wow. It would have been nice to bring this to our attention 8 months ago. You get the impression though that FO's article could have been planted on Snyder's desk this Spring and it wouldn't have made a smidgen of difference.

This is a prime example of the biggest problem with the Redskins in the Snyder era, and that is a refusal to rebuild with youth. It doesn't get more clear cut than the veteran McNabb blocking a younger Campbell. So Campbell may have been slightly worse, but to give up 2 high draft picks and take a 33 year old over a 28 year old is outrageous for a 4-12 team.

That is why this contract's atrocity goes beyond the money. Furthermore, the one thing the the Redskins have done well over the years is manage the salary cap. This team has never really been inhibited in the ability to sign someone to a contract, and continually throws money around. The problem with this team has never been the execution in signing these guys, but rather the plan in going after veterans at the expense of youth and rebuilding. The money the Skins gave McNabb is indeed outrageously high for a player of his caliber, but it doesn't matter.

What does matter is that we are committing to McNabb. I know the Skins have an out after this season, but you are kidding yourself if you think McNabb isn't going to be the starting Redskin QB for at least next season. As FO concludes,

"This situation may not affect the Redskins in the long term; McNabb is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2010 season is done, and he may take his talents elsewhere in the offseason. But if the Redskins actually do succeed in signing McNabb to a long-term deal, past and present trends indicate that it could be a dangerous risk ... and that Campbell may have been the smarter choice all along."

Even worse than being saddled with a bad QB when we had a better and cheaper option in-house, is what this deal shows about the franchise direction: the Redskins are again refusing to admit a mistake and rebuild. We never should have expected otherwise, as Jamie Mottram of MisterIrrelevant.com and Jack Kogod pointed out, 'The McNabb contract was the inevitable conclusion of the McNabb trade.' Admitting a mistake is difficult, especially in an organization with a high turnover rate, but the trade is a sunk cost and this floundering team should cut its losses.

Not only is the rebuild delayed (I know, any chance of a rebuild under Snyder, ever, is optimistic), but as long as McNabb is the QB of this team, we will not be good; the Monday night loss underscored the state of the franchise. What this contract really means is that the next few years will continue to be excruciating if we are not already numb.

(Campbell and McNabb image couresty of inewscatcher.com and McNabb image courtesy of bleacherreport.com)

Redskins Draft Recap

The options: Trent Williams (OL), Russell Okung (OT), Eric Berry (S), Jimmy Claussen (QB)
Drafted: Trent Williams #4. Berry went #5 to the Chiefs, Okung #6 to the Seahawks, and Claussen #48 to the Panthers.

The trend-starting hug

It appears that the Skins didn't want to invest heavily in a QB who wasn't Sam Bradford. Given the slides of Claussen and Colt McCoy, we could have easily traded up for 1 of them. I think the Eric Berry interest was a smokescreen to try to entice someone to trade for our pick. There were a few O-linemen who graded out as similar, so no team was likely to trade up for Okung, Bulaga, or Williams. Berry, however, was the unique player in that spot who some team may have loved so much that they'd make the rare top-10 draft pick trade.

I think a team should almost always take the best player available because football is the ultimate team sport, and I think Eric Berry is Ed Reed with speed. Leaving metrics aside, the best safeties in the NFL have had extremely productive college careers and fell to the later portion of the first round due to a perceived lack of athleticism and safety not being a premium position. This group includes Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders, and Brandon Meriweather, which is a list of some, if not all, of the best safeties in the league. Eric Berry was extremely decorated and productive at Tennessee, but also has incredible measurable athleticism and was tutored by an NFL defensive guru. I have trouble seeing him fail, and I have trouble seeing him not become a perennial all-pro. That said, there is always uncertainty about whether a player will succeed, OT is such an incredible need for the Skins, and Williams not a reach, so I have no problem with the pick.

My other notes:

• I'm glad we took the 1st OT, just because it proves that we got our #1 rated OT.
• 'Silverback' sounds awesome, but for a black man to promote his nickname as a type of monkey is probably not the best idea. I think this would be like a white guy nicknaming himself 'saltine'.
• The hug Williams gave Goodell started a trend, which was cool and then immediately weird when everyone else started hugging the commish too. I like that our guy started the hug.
• Gerald McCoy crying as he was getting announced as the 3rd pick is an example of why drafts can be so awesome. Just a reminder that this is the culmination of a lot of blood, sweat, and tears for these guys.
• Wrist game! I rewound my tivo to examine Gerald McCoy's watch (and bracelet) at least 3 times, but was not privy to these other fine images of the new rich's wristwear. When I grow up, I want to be an NFL first round pick. Here is our man Trent Williams' choice of accessories:   If athleticism fails, Trent can always try to literally blind his opponents with wrist game

• Jimmy Claussen sliding sounds like it might not have happened if Vinny Cerrato was calling the shots. He still is on the payroll at Redskins Park, but thankfully wasn't in the war room.
  
• Let's not give the Skins adding extra picks and finishing with 6 draftees. 3 of those guys are 7th rounders and unlikely to make the team this year or ever play a down in the NFL.
• The Skins, however, should not be criticized for only having 4 picks entering the draft, as Jeremy Jarmon is part of this draft class. Adam Carriker should also be considered part of our haul. Mr. I has a nice article with our real 'draft class'.
  
• I would much rather have Colt McCoy, Jason Campbell, and a 4th round pick next year than Donovan McNabb.
• I would much rather have a 4th rounder for Jason Campbell than nothing at all!
• I think the Bucs, Texans, Jets, and Ravens had the best drafts.
• I really like the 3 day format, much easier for those of us who want to watch all 7 rounds.
• I have too much free time.
  

(Images courtesy of gambling911.com and Gerald McCoy's twitter account)

Redskins Trade Jason Campbell for...Nothing at All?

Since we all saw it coming, it wasn't so hard to deal with the news that the Jason Campbell era officially closed today. Sports are funny like that. You pour your heart and soul into fiery debates about the merits of a player, to the point where you become emotionally attached. Or so you think. Because then the day comes that he is traded, and all you care about is: "what did we get in return?"

Apparently, a 4th-round pick in 2012. That is, according to the Washington Post, CSN, Fanhouse, Yahoo!, and the rest of the modest handful of news sources covering the NFL draft.

Except for ESPN's John Clayton who slipped this interesting tidbit into his "Winners and Losers" post-NFL draft column:

Al Davis got it right this year. He added to a solid draft by picking up Campbell for a conditional fourth-round pick, whose conditions appear to be unachievable. For the Redskins to get that fourth-round pick, the Raiders would either have to make the playoffs or Campbell would have to go to the Pro Bowl.

That last sentence really jumps out of the page, doesn't it? I hope Campbell succeeds, but that's just not happening in Washington West. If this is true, the Redskins have forfeited a 2nd and 3rd/4th round pick and an average at worst starting QB for 28 more passing yards per game if we're lucky. Was the market for veteran starting quarterbacks so bad that this was the best the Redskins could do? And isn't a guaranteed 5th/6th/7th-rounder better than a never-gonna-happen 4th?

If this turns out to be true I think Shanahan and Allen were asleep at the wheel on this one. A nonchalant attitude towards draft picks got us into this mess in the first place. Between this and the questionable merits of their other big decisions (alienating the team's best defensive player, signing running backs without legs, overpaying for McNabb) it's not unreasonable to feel nervous. I hope I'm wrong.

Week 17: Chargers 23, Redskins 20 - Knee Jerk Reactions

Quick recap of today's game, as the sooner we rid ourselves of this version of a professional football team the better:

• I've heard people say the Redskin DB's hands are made of stone, but that's a generous criticism. Fred Smoot and Justin Tryon had a bad case of Carlos Rogers Syndrome today, a disease which appears to be specific to the DC region. Go figure.
• Malcolm Kelly's 84 yard catch and run - which was pretty sweet, by the way - accounted for 23% of his career receiving yards (365). Welcome to the NFL, dude. I guess.
• Antwaan Randle El sighting on a punt?! Good Lord, a random kid in China must have exploded, too.
  
• Jason Campbell was his usual self. Pretty damn good, but not great, but not bad. Some big plays, some missed plays. Some pluses, some minuses. More or less it was much of the same. Take it or leave it. I'll just stop right now.
• So what if Jim Zorn can't coach? On this team, it's all about style, and he's got that in shades spades.
  

And thus concludes the shoddiest game recap of all time, a fitting way to end the worst Redskins season since 1994.

I guess I'll drink to that? Whatever.

Malcolm Gladwell on Jason Campbell

Nope, that is not a misprint. In an exchange with Bill Simmons on ESPN.com this past week, the best-selling author of The Tipping Point, Outliers, and Blink actually brought JC into the conversation.

"What we're talking about is what are called capitalization rates, which refers to how efficiently any group makes use of its talent. So, for example, sub-Saharan Africa is radically undercapitalized when it comes to, say, physics: There are a large number of people who live there who have the ability to be physicists but never get the chance to develop that talent. Canada, by contrast, is highly capitalized when it comes to hockey players: If you can play hockey in Canada, trust me, we will find you.......Case in point: Everyone always says what an incredible advantage it has been for Peyton Manning to have had the same offensive coordinator and the same offensive system his entire career. Football offenses are so complex now that they take years to master properly, and having one system in place from the beginning has allowed Manning to capitalize on every inch of his talent. On the other hand, someone like Jason Campbell has had a different offensive coordinator in virtually every season of his pro and college career (and I'm guessing he'll get another this offseason). I'm not convinced that it's possible to say, with certainty, that Campbell has less ability than Manning. I'm only sure we can say that Campbell has not been in a situation that has allowed him to exploit his talent the way Manning has. We just don't know how good he is capable of being -- and we may never know."

With all the good vibes going around DC this week, one cannot forget that we are in for yet another complete overhaul and a lot more uncertainty. We all should know by now to never drink any of the Kool Aid that Snyder is serving.

(Images courtesy of i.cnn.net and pigskinlovinglady.com)

Week 13: Saints 33, Skins 30 (OT) - Knee Jerk Reactions

For a few hours today, there were positive vibes coming out the wazoo. The team was clicking, points were being scored at an unimaginable rate, and the best team in football looked like they had fallen into a trap.

But, alas, I was the one who fell into the trap. I got emotionally involved when I promised myself I wouldn't. Again. And my Skinnies let me down. Again.

I'm not sure at what point a loss ceases to be encouraging, but I am sure that we're close. The last three games have been particularly hard to stomach - seven points separate us from a 6-6 record right now.

There were three excruciatingly frustrating plays today that stick out in my mind (aside from every significant challenge that the Redskins lost): Shaun Suisham's miss, Kareem Moore's fumble, and Kevin Barnes' muffed punt. It's too painful to talk about each of those in depth so I will defer to the comments section for anyone brave enough to chime in.

Here are some additional thoughts on the game:

• The secondary's susceptibility to the double move is an old joke - predictable and no longer funny.
• LaRon Landry had a decent game, aside from the aforementioned long balls. Yet I can't help but hate him when he mugs for the camera after EVERY SINGLE PLAY, positive or not. After he broke a pass up in the endzone, Byron Westbrook looked to give him a high five, but Landry decided waving to the crowd and mugging for the cameras was more appropriate. He left Westbrook hanging. Dude, you ain't that tight. Shut your mouth and play some football.
• I just purchased a Devin Thomas hype machine. He was everywhere today and absolutely phenomenal returning kicks, covering kicks, and catching balls from JC17. Add a solid game from Fred Davis and your typical mediocrity from Malcolm Kelly and the 2008 Draft class is making Vinny Cerrato almost look competent. Almost.
• Offensive line was great in pass protection with their first 0-sack game of the year.
• I'm very intrigued by the Rock Cartwright/Quinton Ganther duo. They've got a jump in their step that I haven't seen in a while.
• JC17 was excellent today and will continue to be excellent for many years. Too bad it probably won't be with the Redskins.

Raiders next week. They beat the Steelers this week. Ain't no such thing as a cupcake in the NFL.

Adam Jones is Golden and So is JC

Since most DC fans have stopped caring about baseball since, oh 1997, just thought I would break the news that Oriole CF Adam Jones was officialy awarded his first Gold Glove today. Although he isn't deserving, he had a good season in the field and deserves it more than Derek Jeter or Torii Hunter. This is also the type of award that once you win, you will keep winning, so get ready for a string of these if Jones can stay healthy. Also remember that the Orioles lost 98 games last year and that a string of gold gloves will only make Jones more costly for the O's to keep. My stomach hurts...


The other good news for DC fans today is that Aaron Schatz, the founder and head of Football Outsiders, stated on the 11/9 BS Report with Bill Simmons of espn.com that his surprising fact of the season is that, "Jason Campbell is, at worst, a league-average quarterback." JC has obviously caught tons of flack for this season's shit show, currently sits at #26 in the FO QB rankings, and FO's metrics have trouble separating QBs from the teams they play on (with an example being the performance of Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler after switching places), so what gives?
Schatz notes that JC has clearly been the victim of an awful offensive line and is still setting career highs in completion percentage and yards-per-pass. Schatz also notes that even JC's worst season has been better than replacement level. Considering everything that JC has gone through, it is frustrating to think about what he could have become had he been in a decent and consistent sytem with NFL-caliber linemen for the entirety of his career. The bad news? As Schatz says, "...he will go somewhere in free agency, and if he goes somewhere that has an actual offensive line and some pieces around him, he will probably shock people.....that guy has been put through the ringer." Amen brother.

(Images courtesy of balorioles.mlblogs.com and tailgate365.com)

Week 7: Eagles 27, 'Skins 10 - Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is in full swing! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking is in full force. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the seventh game of the season:

-4th and goal with 5 minutes to go. The snap doesn't even make it to Campbell. Mike Tirico says: "and that summarizes the Washington Redskins." Yes it does.

-Play-calling: not so bad, and obviously, not the problem. Jim Zorn, vindicated, sort of.

-Gruden was announcing like he wants the 'Skins job. Not a negative word, which is pretty telling considering how hard it is for every other human watching this game to not notice how bad they are.

-Jaws hates Campbell.

-I feel bad for Campbell. He has been absolutely brutalized physically, mentally, emotionally. Even so, he is better than half the starting QBs in the NFL. Just remember this fact when we're trotting out washed up re-treads for the next few seasons.

-Cooley done. Awesome.

-Devin Thomas and Fred Davis with receiving TDs and career highs!

-Malcolm Kelly with diddly poo!

-The only member of the secondary who didn't completely suck today was D******* Hall. Go figure.

-ARE should never, ever, ever return a punt in football, ever again. Talk about a momentum killing moment.

-Not that we ever had a chance, but why doesn't the offense show a little URGENCY and PACE in drives in the 4th quarter? This has been a problem for years and it drives me absolutely crazy.

-Every Redskins loss makes me more sad than I've ever been in my life, and every loss this season just gets sadder and sadder. That means, every time you see me after a Redskins game, that's the saddest day of my life.

[Image via ESPN.com]

Portis on the Current Locker Room Dynamic

At this point in the season, only humor preserves my sanity in regard to the Redskins. Apparently, that's Clinton Portis' saving grace as well. Via Redskins Insider:

"[I] can't do nothing but handle it with humor. I can't keep moping around and everybody's sad and don't talk to each other. A couple of my teammates didn't even speak to me. I walked in, [wide receiver Santana Moss] didn't even speak to me. And [quarterback] Jason [Campbell] tried to let the door hit me in the face. I don't know what the ... I watched him look at me and then let the door slam in my face."

Campbell denied the incident, calling it a misunderstanding, but still...does this sound like a comfortable locker room to you?

The Redskins are a circus. Try to enjoy the show. Just try.

[Image via Invisible Blog]

Week 6: Chiefs 14, Redskins 6 - Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is in full swing! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking is in full force. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the sixth game of the season:

-Channeling Conan O'Brien here: "Watching the Redskins. Some say a waste of time. Others say: an incredible waste of time."

-I no longer have the energy to feel anger. Only sadness. At this point, what do we have to hope for? That one day Snyderrato will magically flip the switch from "incompetent meddling idiots" to "patient efficient and clever"? That our ridiculous long-term salary commitments will disappear, or that the players with these contracts will improve as they inch towards football senility? It's going to be a long and brutal 5-10 years at least. Probably longer. Hence, sadness.

-If Zorn makes it past the bye week still employed, I will post a naked picture of myself on this blog. And I'm not saying that just to attract more readers, even though that's a probable consequence (I am a beautiful specimen).

-Haynesworth and Golston were beasts inside, and Carter played great again. And the silverware on the Titanic was top-notch.

-Orakpo rushing from end is a beautiful thing. We've said it before, we will say it until we're blue in the internet face: it's not rocket science. PLAY HIM AT END PERMANENTLY. Christ on a crutch.

-Did you see that play where D******* Hall tackled a slow, plodding QB late in the game before he was dragged 8 yards for a first down? I nearly peed my pants.

-Campbell was absolutely horiffic. And all you Collins-lovers out there, how'd he do replacing JC17?

-Heyer does not belong in the NFL. Mike Williams is not completely awful though.

-Portis not getting in the end zone on the long run is another in a long line of signs that he is washed up. Why can't he cut it inside and take it to the house? You and Sellers and one guy to beat and you can't get past him????? And did anyone NOT foresee a field goal after he was tackled?

-Speaking of Portis, I was a big fan of benching him to light a little fire under him. Lasted for one play.

-Landry is a clown. I'm not really on the fence with him anymore. He overpursues more than a cougar at closing time.

-Did anyone else see that the TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS SCORED 21 POINTS? And that the Saints put up 34 on the Giants in the first half alone? We have to have the longest streak without 20 points in the NFL. I know, I'm so greedy.

-How 'bout that CBS feed cutting out for a solid 15 minutes? Feel free to share in the comments what you did during these 15 minutes. Or any jokes about why it happened.

-2-14 is the goal for me now. High draft pick, and an ever-so-slight chance that Snyder wakes up and realizes how bad Vinny Cerrato is, and actually fires him. That's when the next adventure starts. Remember, adventures can often suck, though they can also end in glory.

[Image via Mr. Irrelevant]

Campbell Deserves the Benefit of the Doubt

I meant to post this a few days ago, but exams and mononucleosis decided to join forces and kick my butt. Seriously. It's sore. Anyway, it's not that important, just like most things I post aren't, but still...I need to get this off my chest.

Dan Steinberg wrote a very interesting article the other day on Jason Campbell. The gist of it, for those too lazy or without the balancing skills to read two blog entries simultaneously, is that teammates are fully behind JC17 and are practically begging him to get out of his own head - to 'unleash himself', as Steinz puts it. This came following Sunday's turnover laden 16-13 victory over the woeful Bucs, in which Campbell fumbled on the team's first possession and threw three interceptions to Aqib Talib.

My question, directed at nobody in particular, is how the hell can Campbell get out of his own head when we - fans, media, uninformed idiot bloggers - lock him in there?

The fact is we are never happy with his play.

Could he be putting up better numbers? Absolutely.

Could he be putting up better numbers in this system with this offensive line, with this receiving core, with this uninspiring playcalling? I really don't think so.

Campbell is the fall guy. Let's face it. That's what he is. And nothing he does will ever be good enough for us, at least until the rest of the offense exhibits competence. Sometime in the year 2013 is my guess.

The first three games? Campbell was too conservative, checking down way too often, too afraid to go for the jugular, a la Colt Brennan Brett Favre.

Last game? Campbell took too many risks, trying to make plays that weren't really there which resulted in turnovers.

To his critics: you can't have it both ways!

Is it important for him to find a medium? Of course. But without sufficient help from his teammates and coaches, he is being forced to find this balance on his own, a pretty daunting task. Yea, I know, he makes millions of dollars a year, blah blah blah, but he's also human. It's damn near impossible to exceed already unrealistic expectations in a failing context. And that's exactly what this is - a failing context.

So next time Campbell does something less than perfect, try to give him the benefit of the doubt. He's better than you think he is. No, he's not Peyton Manning, but he ain't Danny Wuerffel.

At least he's got his teammates' support, and hopefully that positivity will breed some success.

From Clinton Portis following the game: "That was the best thing that happened today, seeing Jason throwing the ball around and having turnovers and bouncing back and continuously fighting and everyone kept fighting with him."

Portis' pockets is straight, and we know that. Maybe with some success, Campbell's will be too when it's all said and done.

Are the Redskins Horrible, or Horribly Unlucky?

The Skins have had a lot of problems this year, but the most glaring one has been the offense's impotence in the red zone. I just finished reading Football Outsiders (FO) Almanac 2009, only about 1 month too late, and sure enough, one of the last articles in the book is about deciphering red zone performance.

I have read the article, and I have a radical solution for the Redskin red zone problems: do nothing. Per FO: "On a year-to-year basis, there's essentially no relationship with regards to the difference between a team's red zone Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and their overall DVOA, on either side of the ball." In non-geek terms, red zone performance over time should mirror performance over the rest of the field. So, yes, a team can over or underachieve in the red zone during a single season, but any disparity is likely a fluke. When the Skins moved the ball incredibly well between the 20s against the Rams, and then stalled in the red zone, that was just bad luck, at least according to the FO metrics.

The numbers are pretty easy to analyze. The correlation between 2 numbers can range from 1 to -1, with 0 meaning there is no correlation, and 1 or -1 meaning there is a perfect correlation. FO shows that year-to-year, the correlation between defensive performance in the red zone is 0.01, and offensive performance is 0.09, so there ya go.

That is not to say red zone performance is not important, it is actually a vital aspect of team success; a team that performs well in the red zone will overachieve. Red zone performance, however, is not something a team can specifically improve or be good at on either side of the ball. As the book states at the conclusion of the article, "A team almost always needs to be good in the red zone to succeed, but the way to ensure success in the red zone is to have a good team."

So while everyone piles on Zorn, Campbell, Portis, etc. it seems that if we just keep playing the way we have, we will score touchdowns in the redzone. If you need some other statistics, according to FO, the Redskins were ranked 14th in successful short-yardage and goal-line running last year, and our running ability should be similar this year, so we should have a perfectly adequate ability to run in the red zone.

The bright side of this is that we dominated that Rams, despite what the final score says. In Detroit, we missed an opportunity on our first drive and only scored 14 points, but the bigger problem was that our defense was unable to stop the Lions consistently. 3rd down conversion rate is another fluky stat by FO's metrics (take my word here) that disproportianately influences game outcomes, and sure enough is an area the Lions dominated (we were 2-for-10, they 10-for-18). Now, I'm not saying we put forth great performances in either of these losses, but I am saying that we have had some bad luck and aren't the trainwreck some people think. So if you need to criticize (and you probably should) look at the offensive and defensive performance over the entire field, not just the last 20 yards.

(Image courtesy of slog.thestranger.com)

Skins @ Lions, 1:00 ET

When the schedule-makers penciled Washington in for a game in Detroit for the second consecutive year, most Skins fans thought it was Christmas come early.

Here we are, though, only two weeks into the season, and the Skins are the popular pick to help the Lions snap their 19 game losing streak. Neat.

Here are some things to remember from last year's game in Detroit, which I attended:

• Detroit fans are extremely hospitable. Not one fan harassed or heckled me and my buddies, in full Skins attire. In fact, the guys in front of us were so drunk they passed out in the second quarter, while the guys behind us wore fake mustaches, t-shirts that said "2008 Preseason Champions!", and signs that said "Re-Hire Matt Millen!" The Detroit Lions, ladies and gentlemen.

• We gave up the the Lions' first 1st-quarter points of the season. Ouch.
  

• Jim Zorn and Clinton Portis mixed it up on the sidelines for the first of what has seemed like many times. Portis ended the day with 126 yards.

• Santana Moss dominated the game, with a 50-yard TD reception and unbelievable 80-yard punt return for TD in the 4th quarter that made everyone think, "Why again are we employing Antwaan Randle-El?"

• Game was over when London Fletcher clocked Calvin Johnson behind the first down marker to end their game-tying desperation drive. Skins won, 25-17.

There are a few things we need to remember to mentally prepare ourselves for today's game:

1. The Redskins haven't played anywhere near the level they're capable of playing at during the first two games of the season.
2. The Redskins [usually] play better when everyone is betting against them.
3. Again, THE LIONS HAVE LOST 19 CONSECUTIVE GAMES!

I'm putting my money where my mouth is - the Skins will make it 20. Not only that, but they'll cover the spread, too. JC17 and co. are gonna have a breakthrough day, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD out of the defense. Just too much on the line in this one to fall in Detroit.

Rico's prediction: Redskins 34, Lions 17

POST-GAME UPDATE: I am either delusional or retarded. Or both.

Week 2: Redskins 9, Rams 7 - Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is under way! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking has returned in full force. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the second game of the season:

-This was a win that felt like a loss. The Rams are horrendous, and thanks be to God for that. It's disconcerting to say that, because I don't know how you'd have been able to tell the teams apart today without the different uniforms. Small and steady gains on offense, bend-but-don't-break defense, stalled scoring drives...can you tell who I'm describing?

-Football Outsiders' theory is that blowing out a bad team is a better indicator of future success than barely beating a good team. So, yeah.

-What a boring game.

-Zorn's play-calling was pretty bad. On the goal line in the 3rd quarter, he gave Campbell zero chances to throw it. The kid basically already threw two TD passes, which were dropped (Thomas and Sellers). Let him get his stats! And Jimmy baby, don't call a sweep to the weak side with Betts (STAY IN BOUNDS) when all you need to do is bleed the clock. And don't go for it on 4th and 1 at the end there, that's just asinine. Take the field goal.

-Landry missed Jackson big-time on his long run.

-What's with the fumble-itis? Every other play the ball is squirting loose "after" we're down. Twice in two weeks (Cooley last week, Santana this week), we've been saved by the refs missing actual fumbles. Not to mention the actual, real, documented fumbles.

-Santana Moss is screwing my fantasy team.

-The Three Stooges: Malcolm Kelly (4 rec., 41 yards); Devin Thomas (1 dropped TD); Fred Davis (1 rec. -2 yards). I hate you Vinny Cerrato.

-Randle El is our most consistent wideout to this point.

-Cooley is our best offensive player to this point.

-It's time for television to embrace the video game view. I am aching to know what Campbell is seeing down the field. Is that vaunted Rams secondary shutting everything down or does he just not see open guys? Unless we're at these games, we'll just never know.

-The stats don't lie, to an extent: Campbell was efficient and had his castmembers held on to the ball, he'd have two TDs to show for it.

-More shotgun please.

-A big play please.

-A touchdown please.

-Rogers was charged with shutting down Donnie Avery, their best wideout, because Rogers is our best cornerback, by far. And he succeeded. Meanwhile, big $$ Deangelo Hall got burned again for 7 catches and a touchdown to some guy named Robinson.

-Carrot Top

-Dear Fellow Fans: You boo for bad efforts, not bad execution. I didn't see bad efforts. Dear Fellow Fan sitting by me at bar: Colt Brennan is on IR, and cannot possibly replace Campbell, not to mention how stupid it would be to replace your starting QB while he is having a decent game.

-At the end of the day, the 'Skins are what the scoreboard says. We "almost" had some touchdowns, but good teams don't bother with "almost." They hold on to the ball and punch it in after long drives. They don't let the friggin' Rams convert 50% of their third downs. *sigh* 1-1 heading to Detroit, let's make it an easy one for once, huh?

Week 1: Giants 23 - Redskins 17: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is finally upon us! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking has finally commenced. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the first game of the season:

-DeAngelo Hall is garbage. Not just overrated, but noticeably bad at football. He got schooled all day by the likes of the other Steve Smith and he tackles like a fourth grader. You can't tell me the 'Skins aren't better off with 47-year-old Shawn Springs for 10 games a season.

-Smoot is losing it. This makes me sad. The Manningham TD was unacceptable.

-I've been on the fence about Laron Landry for the past year now, what with his knuckleheaded off the field behavior (snubbing signings and fans) and often on-the-field knuckleheaded behavior. Today did not help sway me to the positive side. Missed tackles, idiotic penalties...he needs to rein it in and soon.

-The Giants are built from their lines out. Their O-Line gives Eli all day to throw, and it's why a QB with his marginal abilities can get it done with marginal RBs and WRs. The three times the 'Skins actually hurried him? Sack, fumble, interception, and one 15 yard completion. Meanwhile the Giants D-line is a handful. Besides the opening run, Portis had nothing all day. Vinny Cerrato, please take notes.

-When your starting wideouts combine for 3 catches and 12 yards, you're not going to win.

-Campbell had an awful game. The forward-pass interception was bone-headed, the fumble was careless, and he missed some guys. Was Malcolm Kelly really NEVER open?

-The much-maligned O-line held their own against the Giants for the most part.

-ARE, who I thought I hated after his poor decision making on the end-around option, turned it around and was our best offensive player all day. He belongs in the slot.

-Zorn made some gutsy calls (the end around option, the fake FG), but mostly timid ones. What ever happened to throwing down the field?

-If the 'Skins want to do anything this year, the D needs to be better with the game on the line in the 4th.

-The offense is, overall, exactly the same as it was in the second half of last year: limited. Run left, dink and dunk, Cooley over the middle, one deep bomb attempt a game. It's a formula for, I don't know, 17-ish points per game.

-CAMPBELL. SHOTGUN. CAMPBELL. SHOTGUN. CAMPBELL. SHOTGUN. CAMPBELL. SHOTGUN. If I don't hear those two words at least 20 times a game from the announcers, I will be an angry man.

-While we're at it, let's try the hurry up earlier in the game, no? Yes, the Giants were in the prevent, but Campbell looks comfortable when he is in a rhythm like that. I like what JC does when he is comfortable, don't you?

-Orakpo was quiet.

-Fletcher is a tackling machine. 11 solo, 7 assists, a pass defended. If he gets hurt, call it a season.

-Big Al did what he got paid to do.

Mostly bad things happened today. But it's just one game, against a Super Bowl contender, in their house, on opening day. It could have been worse. Some might say it should have been, and the score doesn't really reflect how easily the Giants dominated this game.

More analysis to follow from the rest of the DCLS crew.

DC Takes Collective Swig of Whiskey - ESPN Lists JC as the #25 QB in NFL

Using a system similar to that used by Baseball Prospectus to project player performance by using performance trends by players with similar statistic profiles, Football Outsiders provided ESPN with a piece on career projections for the top-35 current NFL QBs. Bare in mind that this is not based on current ability, so longer-tenured guys who have already massed a career's worth of yards will rank highly, such as Favre, Collins, and Culpepper.

For those of you without an ESPN The Mag Subscription, here is the list in order of projected career passing yards:

1) Peyton Manning

2) Brett Favre

3) Drew Brees

4) Tom Brady

5) Carson Palmer

6) Donovan McNabb

7) Jay Cutler

8) Kerry Collins

9) Philip Rivers

10) Ben Roethlisberger

11) Kurt Warner

12) Matty Ryan

13) Matt Schaubb

14) Eli Manning

15) Matt Hasselbeck

16) Tony Romo

17) David Garrard

18) Aaron Rodgers

19) Joe Flacco

20) Marc Bulger

21) Daunte Culpepper

22) Jake Delhomme

23) Chad Pennington

24) Trent Edwards

25) Jason Campbell

26) Matt Cassel

27) Vince Young

28) Derek Anderson

29) Shaun Hill

30) JaMarcus Russell

31) Michael Vick

32) Kyle Orton

33) Byron Leftwich

34) Matt Leinart

35) Kellen Clemens

The article's blurb for JC says, "Most comps had long careers, but as backups (O'Donnell, Jon Kitna)." This is interesting, as it is in stark contrast to FO's career forecast for JC based on his college stats, and their 2009 take that the rest of the offense made his numbers look bad last year.

All we know for certain about JC right now is that his GF is smokin', and not much else.

(Image of JC's smokin' hot GF courtesy of giftqb.wordpress.com/2009/08/01/qb-weekender)

The Cult of Colt Survives, I Think

The news has just been leaked, the big Redskins 3rd qb question has finally been answered: Chase Daniel will be cut, which leaves Colt Brennan and the Cult of Colt to the spoils.............well, kinda.......Colt will actually not see the field either this season, as he is being placed on injured reserve.

So basically the whole preseason 3rd qb battle was much ado about nothing, as the Skins will only have 2 qbs on the active roster. To me, this sounds like the Skins have found a way to cheat the system. Brennan sounds like and looked like he is physically able to play (awful performance aside) and thus be part of the 53-man roster. I think the Skins are putting Brennan on IR to give them 1 more season to evaluate him without using precious roster space on a guy they do not want playing in a real game. I am actually dissapointed that Redskins Insider Jason Reid has yet to discuss this distinct possibility; I don't think Jason La Canfora would have let the Skins slide. Jason Reid is pretty new at this gig, so maybe he is scared of his ruining his relationships with key Redskin sources at the expense of good journalism.

This seems like a clever move by the Skins, but does leave us thin at qb behind a creaky offensive line. The Colts did this recently, but have a much better o-line and the best qb on the planet. So what happens if, knock on wood, Campbell tears his knee? We would need to sign someone to backup Collins, and my guess is that Chase Daniel would have to be considered for that job given that he is the only guy available who has spent time in the system.

Keeping 2 qbs is also great news for local-boys Marcus Mason and Bryon Westbrook, as well as LB Darrel Young.

(Image courtesy of hogshaven.com)

The Redskins Look.........Good?

Okay, so we don't totally suck. I also realize now that last week's Ravens game wasn't boring because the presason is boring, it was boring because the Zornstar and co. walked out at the beginning of the game and took a huge dump on the 50 yard line (actually, that would have been really exciting).

For those of you who missed it, the game opened with a wimpy 3-and-out against the full-strength defending Super Bowl champion defense. But then, a moment of inspiration from Zorn, who had made it relatively clear that he wanted the first-team offense to get a good amount of reps tonight: a fake punt. Not something we would normally want to practice or show, but it allowed JC, CP, and the bunch to get a few more plays...and man did we take advantage. We marched right down the field, having little trouble with the Steelers' rush. Yes, Ladell Betts was stuffed on 2nd and 3rd down from close, but that would usually be Portis, and I wouldn't let those two stuffs override an otherwise great drive against the best team in the league last year. Going for 6 seemed like an easy decision, but I think Zorn wanted to finally get some points on the board and ensure we kept the momentum. The 2nd drive was back to a wimpy 3-and-out, but there was a more than enough there to make me believe in this offense.

The first-team D kept that momentum going from the FG, albeit against a Steelers offense that is far from prolific when full strength, and downright bad without Big Ben...and this is me trying to blockout Byron Leftwich torching us last year. The D line was all over Charlie Batch, with Haynesworth looking well worth his contract. Rak continued to look great with the first teamers. The D also was shredded by the pass on the 2nd drive, but again, you can see this D being an absolute terror.

Yeah, it's the preseason, and the first units each only went 1-for-2, but against a similar opponent from last season, it's hard not to see the strides of progress to the point that we can at least compete with anybody in this league. That all-too familiar taste for Skins fans is hope, but maybe this time we don't have to take it with a grain of salt.

Other notes:
-Kick/punt coverage and returns were awful. This is particularly embarassing when you realize that guys are playing for their jobs on these units.

-Orakpo continues to shine rushing the qb.

-Malcolm Kelly has the best hands on the team.

-Devin Thomas still doesn't look ready and he is running out of time to figure it out.

-DJ Hacket had to make that catch at the end of the 2nd quarter. If he isn't playing teams, and his birth certificate is legit, then he needs to be great as a WR. I am a believer, as he has been a Football Outsiders metric king in the past with great success rates in limited opportunities, but injuries have prevented him from getting taking the next step.

-Marko Mitchell has been getting love from the Wapo and apparently his teammates for the 5th receiver spot, and looked pretty damn good on that TD catch. Even though his feet were a bit sloppy, it was a nice catch.

-Colt Brennan is going to get a run for his money for the 3rd qb spot from Chase Daniel.

-I don't know him personally, but I have to think Fred Davis needed that forced fumble and TD.

(Image courtesy of the AP via ESPN.com)

Hey Colt Brennan! Your Nice Warm Glass of SHUT THE HELL UP is Ready

One thing Joe Gibbs never did as a coach was allow his intentions or back-up plans leak to the public. Especially not through quarterbacks. Which is why it's sort of unnerving to hear these words come from Colt Brennan's mouth. Per PFT (transcribing a radio interview):

"I gotta step in this year. They've already made it clear that they're going to play me a ton in the pre-season and we gotta play four very talented teams and talented defenses and that's going to be my test.

"Right now it seems like it's in everyone's hands. For Jason Campbell it's his last year, it's in his hands to go out and earn that second contract and earn that for him. And for me in the preseason it's my chance to go out there for the second year and prove that I belong and have a great preseason and show that I belong and maybe could be a starter one day."

At cursory glance, no real surprises here. A recently drafted QB should get a chance to play in preseason games. Brennan is still an unknown commodity and what if, god forbid, Campbell and Collins go down?

Colt Brennan destroying 6th-stringers in 2008 preseason. Image via MonkeyinmyMind.

On the other hand, Colt, shut the hell up. This is not the time, nor the team, nor the QB situation, to say anything other than: "Jason Campbell is the starter. I suckle at his teet of awesome. I'm preparing to be the best back-up/third stringer I can be. Do not go out and buy my jersey."

There's a time and a place for QB swagger. I'm glad to see Colt's still got it - lord knows you need it to suceed in The League. I just don't think that time is now. Look Colt: your #1 QB has an 800 pound gorilla of expectations on his back, is playing for his career, and is coming off of an off-season in which his owner and GM went and stabbed him in the back. Twice. His coach has hardly given him ringing endrosements and - et tu, Brute? - met with Sexy Mark Sanchez in a pre-draft dinner with Snyder & Co. You've got a modest following fans just clamoring to get rid of Campbell and have you start, so you know anything you say will cause a stir. What are you doing?

Now you've got idiots like PFT's Mike Florio speculating that you're in the plans for the regular season, that Zorn is so afraid of Snyder's wrath that he'll try to appease Snyder by irrationally benching Campbell at an inopportune time. Say, midseason. And how can you fault such speculation? Snyder has proven his taste for meddling with personnel, and spent this whole offseason undermining Campbell. Is it a stretch to take a harmless quote from the young QB waiting in the wings and run with it? This is the sort of thing Gibbs worked hard to avoid. Your starting QB just doesn't need more noise out there about his job than he's already dealing with.

And hey, maybe it's all true. Maybe the coaches are whispering to Colt that they expect him to be the starter by Week 8. But that shit needs to remain in house right now. I'm glad to see Brennan has ambitions - I'd be worried if he didn't. But sometimes you just shut your trap and support your teammates. If there's a time to do that it's now, and if there's a player who needs the support desperately, it's Jason Campbell.