What You Don't Realize about the Redskins - We Still Stink

While everyone keeps talking about McNabb's greatness and our pathetic running game, the horrid performance of the defense is being completely overlooked. I know we seemed to hold the Cowboys, but we are dead last in total yards against, giving up 453 yards per game! This mostly comes from having the 2nd-worst passing D in the league. Here is my imaginary exchange with everyone drinking the kool-aid.

The Skins are middle of the league in terms of points allowed thanks to holding the Cowboys and even scored a defensive TD!
That is a product of luck. Football Outsiders (FO) makes the point clear by ranking us as the #31 defense, with the #30 pass D and #24 run D...ouch. That defensive TD thing is a fact, but also pure luck. I thought our defense would take a step back after last season thanks to the switch to a 3-4 and the fact that the scheme is not a great fit with our personnel. I should also note that any grandiose ideas D******* Hall has about being on the level of Revis are just absurd. He might be our best cornerback, and certainly putting him, instead of Phil Buchanon, on Andre Johnson in certain situations would have helped, but he is not elite by an measure except in ego.

So what, we are in first place and obviously heading to the Super Bowl behind heroic D-Mac's heroics! 
FO actually has us as the #25 ranked team overall! The reason that is possible is because the Cowboys outplayed us in week 1, but lost because of several mistakes and unlucky plays. The offense has indeed improved, but it is not clear how much just yet.

Well at least we can beat the Rams! 
Not so fast, we are actually going up against FO's #23 team, and on the road. It should be noted if you combine FO's preseason projections with actual performance, we come out as the #13 team in the league, so we have that going for us.

It's only 2 games into the season, so who knows what will happen!
Fair enough, we are only 2 games into the season, but don't be surprised if we lose on Sunday and are headed for a 6-10 season......not that we ever get our hopes up.....

(Image courtesy of media.timesleader.com)

Grandmama Leaves the Building!

Hallelujah! The Redskins finally admitted a mistake today and cut RB Larry Johnson. Maybe the offensive line isn't producing holes for the running game, but fact is that Larry Johnson stinks. As I wrote when we signed him,

"...LJ is even worse than most people realize. How bad? By Football Outsiders' metrics, he was the 2nd worst RB in the league last year! He was 64th out of 65 RBs with 100+ carries. On the bright side, he was the the 97th best pass-catching RB, although he was really only ahead of a few fullbacks. So instead of following the seemingly smart plan used by the Eagles, Chargers, and few other teams of taking a young RB to groom and split carries, we basically signed a locker room cancer who might be the worst at his position in the league."

You're damn right I just quoted myself. See that picture in the top right? LJ looks pretty slick there but is actually running backwards for what would be a 10 yard loss. He appears to think very highly of himself and is a world-class dick on top of his pathetic performance.

I know he only had 5 carries, which is a tiny sample size, but has already been the 3rd worst RB in the league on a per play basis. There is no fountain of youth, LJ was a horrifically bad signing from the start. His roster spot should have been used on a better player (just about anyone) who is young with some upside.

The running game can only go up from here, and almost anyone taking LJ's place will be an improvement. Good riddance!

(Image courtesy of www.washingtonpost.com)

Week 2: Texans 30 - Redskins 27: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is finally upon us! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking has finally commenced. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the second game of the season:

31, 9, 11, 16, 25, 23. I only wish those were the Redskin point-scoring totals of our last 6 games. Those are actually the rankings of the Redskins special teams from 2004-2009, the years Danny Smith has been in charge. Let me throw another number at you: 9. That's the Skins special teams ranking in the year before he arrived. How does Danny Smith still have a job?!? Just because he seems so peppy, but the special teams have only gotten worse since he arrived, and generally been awful. Instead of slowly bleeding us to death, we got stabbed in the heart. I know that the blocked FG was not the only play to cost us the game, but seriously, enough is enough. Dan Snyder, in his infinite wealth, could lure just about any guy he wants, but sticks with Danny freaking Smith, astounding.

• Double-move and D******* Hall were victimized pretty equally today. Kevin Walter wrecked double-move.
• Rak has to do more than that. I know they doubled him quite a bit, but other than the one sack he seemed pretty quiet to me. The stats show a couple QB hits, a TFL, and the one pass he tipped, but he wasn't the constant terror we need.
• Laron Landry had a modest 11 tackles, but still had a great game. I only see 1 sack in the stats, but thought he had 2. I noted that he did missed plugging a hole on one of Foster's better runs, but made a lot of important tackles and has all over Schaub.
• The corpse of Joey Galloway ghosted downfield on that 62 yard reception and the oh-so-slight McNabb overthrow. That is the good, but 3 catches in 7 targets is not, and those 4 incompletions were among only 10 thrown by McNabb.
  
• I was in Portis' corner, but this has to get better. We win that game if we can run down the clock with a few first downs on the ground.
  
• Larry Johnson really thinks he can bounce backward and then around the entire defense?
  
• I thought we all agreed McNabb wouldn't throw to Mike Sellers anymore.
• I am still not a big McNabb believer, and he missed a few throws today, but Campbell never makes any of those long throws.
• On the game-deciding 4th down play, how about we double team the best WR in the league with the best guys we've got instead of leaving the short white guy who can't cover on him. I realize Phillip Buchanon should have been there, but why is our #3 corner on Andre Johnson!
  
• Free safety is a major area of concern. Doughty and Horton are not good enough.
• Trent Williams better be okay. I was surprised the Texans didn't switch Mario Williams to going against Heyer on the left side on every play after the injury.
  
• Ovie in this Capital One commercial definitely is helping me stay sane:

• The TV show Airwolf, was on when I immediately clicked off the game, and was actually the primary reason I didn't jump off of my balcony. One hilariously bad thrill ride. I'd never heard of it, but immediately turned it on after reading the description in my TV guide, "The better of two helicopter shows (1984)." There were multiple helicopter shows in 1984?
  
• Looking at the schedule ahead and considering what I've seen from 2 weeks of football, I have the Skins going 9-7 right now. We are also still in first place, and St. Louis next week should be the cure for what ails.

(Image courtesy of Hogs Haven)

Week 1: Redskins 13 - Cowboys 7: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is finally upon us! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking has finally commenced. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the first game of the season:

HAIL! So this is extremely belated, but I've been traveling for my real job with no internet access. These are not as half-baked as usual, and is an expanded edition thanks to my extreme productivity on the plane ride back. I'm even throwing-in some Texans preview as interest.

• The Cowboys lost that game more than the Skins won it. We were outgained 380 yards to 250.
  

• D******* Hall will get credit for making a play on Tashard Choice's fumble, while Carlos Rogers will get criticized for dropping what would have been a game-ending interception, but that sis absurd. The Cowboys were targeting Hall, and by my count only threw at Rogers 3 times (if you include that lob that Double-Move dropped). Hall gave up quite a few completions, and was not particularly good. Bare in mind that Romo was 31-47.
• The Cowboys play calling was awesomely bad. The short passes against a suspect pass rush were fine to start the game, but after awhile it was clear the protection was good enough to go downfield, especially considering we didn't have anyone capable of staying close to Miles Austin. In addition, after a couple big runs by Marion Barber (4.9 YPC), the Cowboys inexplicably stopped using him.
• Blame Alex Barron all you want Cowboy fans, but he was up against O-Sak-Po all game. That said, even though Rak had no sacks, he drew 3 holding penalties on Barron (one was declined).
• Landry did seem to be in on a lot of plays, but it looked like quite a few of the tackles were from piling-on. He also missed an open shot on Romo, so I am not entirely convinced he has turned over a new leaf.
• Reed Doughty was not good enough, and we can only hope Kareem Moore's coverage skills are better.
• Joey Galloway might as well not have shown up.
• Mike Sellers should not have a pass thrown to him the rest of the season.
• Is Anthony Armstrong just be a preseason All-Star?
• The defense appeared to play better with Fat Albert on the field, but standing apart from the huddle was not a good move. He also still appears to be overly aggressive and not understand that his job is to be a brick wall instead of a knifing penetrator.
• Galloway's disappearing act makes it odd that Fred Davis was also non-existant. Cooley should be the #1 TE, but isn't Davis our 3^rd best pass catcher? Davis should not just be a redzone guy. Can one of them split out wide, or can we play more 2 TE sets?
• Casey Rabach was destroyed by Jay Ratliff. A tough assignment, but for an aging mediocre player, that is not a good sign. Drafting a center already sounds like a great idea.
• On the other hand, Trent Williams is going to be a pro-bowler in the not-too-distant future. Silverback looked only okay in his first game, but Demarcus Ware is the toughest assignment in the league. Ware averages about 3 sacks+hits+hurries per game, while getting game planned around, and I believe had exactly that many going 1v1 with Silverback. Williams did lappear to miss a couple blitz pickups where he took the outside guy instead of a delayed inside rusher, but I am not sure those were missed assignments. In the meantime, his athleticism was a cause for excitement. The Skins should leave him on an island the rest of the season and never look back.
• Apparently no one but me noticed Jammal Brown missed a bunch of plays in the 2^nd quarter when Heyer stepped in, but was back after halftime. I just found the explanation here.
  
• Lebron James, Cowboy fan. I think he is trying to suck. Just scroll down this DC Sports bog article for exactly how I feel.
  
• Larry Johnson is like the player in Madden who no matter how fast you hit the speed burst doesn't go anywhere (text message from my friend Adam).
• McNabb was Campbellesque (text message from my friend Adam).
  
• Before the season, I had the Texans as a team we needed to beat to go at least 8-8. I think we just need to go 2-2 through these first 4 games to be in position for a wild card, and play the Rams next, so this game is not absolutely needed. That said, if we are projecting out to 8 wins, this game could be the difference between making the playoffs and sitting at home in January. I am going to take a few Ambien now.

(Image courtesy of DC Sports Bog)

Redskins 2011 and Beyond Truths

So I left a not-so-insignificant piece out of my last post on how the Skins should only be favored to win a wild card spot, but are in good position to win the NFC East. That not-so-teeny tiny piece is that the Skins have once again sacrificed all future gains for short term glory, or in our case, short term decency. The season hasn't even started, but I can't help but look further down the road, particularly as someone who panned the McNabb trade. I refer you once again to the Football Outsiders preview:

"This year’s Redskins have an alarming number of players who are about to simultaneously grow old, and that’s not even counting lunatic acquisitions like Galloway. McNabb, Portis, Johnson, Parker, Santana Moss, Rabach, Philip Daniels, and London Fletcher are all at or approaching the downside of their careers, with Andre Carter and Derrick Dockery not far behind them. There are few obvious successors to these key players on the roster, and with training camp bloated with Galloway and Holliday types, it will be hard for the team to find and develop quality replacements. In a few years, Shanahan will be fired, McNabb will return to Philadelphia to retire with the Eagles, and Snyder will stand next to Urban Meyer heralding the start of another new era.

There are two sad elements to the Redskins plight. The first is that some in the Redskins organization will feel vindicated when the team loses in the second round of the playoffs. Snyder and others will convince themselves that they made all the right moves. There will be a lot of backslapping for a very small accomplishment. And of course, that will only encourage Snyder and company to climb back on the horse. The second is that so many of the Redskins problems are obvious and avoidable. Anyone who looks carefully at the roster can see long-term disaster brewing, and it doesn’t take much imagination to find healthier alternatives to the path the Redskins chose. The Redskins could have Jake Delhomme or Derek Anderson as their starting quarterback, with second-round pick Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings. Or, they could have given Campbell another year, used their second-round pick on a defensive playmaker like Sergio Kindle, and let their defense win a few games while Shanahan made tough decisions on offense. Heck, they could have pulled the trigger on the McNabb deal but held off on all of the Parker-Johnson-Galloway nonsense, increasing their odds of finding a great young back or receiver who will improve as McNabb fades. The Redskins just can’t do that. They keep seeking short-term dividends that aren’t worth the long-range consequences.

Of course, that’s exactly the kind of trade-off addicts make. In March, it looked like Allen and Shanahan could make a difference. Now, they’re stuck in the same web that snared Gibbs, Schottenheimer, Spurrier, and Zorn. Snyder drags good football people down with him. This year, the high will last past August, but the crash will come before February. And next year’s hangover will be as bad — or worse — than the last ten."

The scene in Adams Morgan Tonight/Metaphor for the Future of the Redskins Future

Let's skip ahead to what our roster will look like in 3+ years, and remember that we have the worst group of under-25 year old talent in the NFL. WARNING: Hide the women and children.
On offense we have:
QB: Zippo, not even a developmental guy. Nice to know we got rid of Chase Daniel, who is one of FO's top prospects...
RB: Nada
WR: Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly (syke!)
OL: Trent Williams, old Jammal Brown
TE: Cooley and Fred Davis
Overall, this is pathetic, we need another couple O-linemen, a QB, and a WR who is healthy and can beat out a 39 year old. Other than that, doing swell.

On defense:
DL: Golston, Carriker (maybe)
LB: Orakpo, Rocky, and maybe HB Blades.
CB: D******* Hall (I don't see double-move sticking around this long). You know who is missing here? FO's #5 prospect, Justin Tryon.
S: Landry (hard to count, but could be a new man in the box this year, although his missed tackle on the huuuge LDT run says otherwise), Kareem Moore
Overall, there are some bodies here, but no cornerstones except for Rak.

Next year's draft doesn't offer a ton of hope, as we already missing our 3rd and 4th round picks. Good thing I only put a down payment on tickets for this year's Super Bowl....

(Image courtesy of deadspin.com and my friend's cell phone)

Redskin 2010 Season Truths

Believe it or not, the NFL season is less than 3 days away. With the help of Football Outsiders Almanac 2010, it is high time to tell you exactly what is going to happen our Skin this season.

My initial thought was that suck, won 4 games last year, and haven't improved much. Our defense has been our strength for several seasons, and as excited as I am about a new defensive coordinator, our personnel are better suited for a 4-3, and think the D might be slightly worse this year. Sure, we got McNabb, but he is only marginally better than Campbell, and we haven't upgraded anywhere else on offense. I think Kyle Shanahan helps too, but only see a modest upgrade here. Balancing the D and O together, I see a team that might be slightly improved, but not much different from last year. If we won 4 games last year, 2 more wins seems about right, when accounting for the upgrade on Jim Zorn.

That was until I read FO's tasty tidbit:

"The Redskins should reach the playoffs this year: They are better than they were last season, and they weren’t as bad last season as their record suggests. They fell well below their Estimated Win total of 7.3 in 2009, underperforming because of Zorn’s dreadful coaching and some special teams lapses. Zorn’s ineffectuality as a leader and strategist was evident in early season losses to the woeful Lions (the Redskins were 2-of-10 on third downs, committed 97 yards in penalties, and allowed three straight drives for a combined 41 Lions offensive plays) and Chiefs (eight three-andout drives against an opponent that couldn’t score a touchdown). If Shaun Suisham could kick straight, the Redskins would have beaten the Cowboys in Week 11, and a special-teams fumble provided the margin of victory for the Saints in Week 13. The switch from Zorn-Campbell to Shanahan-McNabb will get the Redskins to snap back to that seven-win level and then buy them an extra win or two. A schedule full of Rams, Buccaneers, and Lions gives them another boost...The Redskins will have an offense close to league average and a solid 3-4 defense that has the right personnel for the system...Barring a Week 1 McNabb injury, the Redskins are a safe bet to compete for a wild card, if not win their division.

Holy crap! That's right, with a semi-competent coach and normal luck, we would have won 7 games last year. FO agrees with me that this team will be about 2 games better, but is using a much higher baseline. Running through the schedule though, I still having trouble finding 9 wins. Let's say we beat the Rams, Bucs, Lions, Bears, and Jags, and go 2-4 in the division given that Dallas is a superior team, and the Giants and Eagles are no pushovers. Then let's assume we lose to the Colts, Packers, and Vikings (although Viking injuries might push them into the W column). That gives us a 7-7 record with games against the Texans and Titans not counted. Maybe the Skins beat the Texans at FedEx and lose at Tennessee to go 8-8. We still need to find 1 more win, and that is if we don't slip up against any of the supposedly inferior teams. Maybe we go 3-3 in the division, or can sneak out a game in Tennessee or against the Vikings, but 9 wins is a stretch for me. That said, in the metrics and I trust, and with McNabb ready for week 1, this team can legitimately talk about playoffs.

Contenders for the NFC East crown - just when I thought I was out, they pull me right back in! Don't look now, but it's Dallas week!

(Image courtesy of harryhogfootball.com)

Redskins on Hard Knocks - D******* Hall is No Cromartie

I watch Hard Knocks anyway, but with the Jets playing the Skins on this week's episode, I was downright giddy. For those who haven't been watching, you should be. Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromartie have been can't miss, most notably this now infamous Cromartie scene describing all of his children. If you've seen it, watch again:

Antonio Cromartie And His Kids - watch more funny videos

There wasn't much Redskin talk before the game in the Jets camp except that they seem to think they are the most talented team in the league and all that ra ra stuff. Nick Mangold did get on Fat Albert after one of the first plays of the game:
Mangold: "You're looking spry out there with all that conditioning."
Fat Albert: They're trying to kill me right now."

Okay, maybe we shouldn't be on Hard Knocks next year..... However, there was a gem dropped by Rex Ryan on D******* Hall. At the end of LaDainian Tomlinson's huge 1st quarter run (which I replayed several times and believe the biggest culprit to be Laron Landry), D******* Hall finishes an Andre Carter tackle at the 50 yard line. That much was already seared in my brain, but what I didn't notice on Friday was when getting up, Hall gets a little feisty and starts going after Jet WR Jerrico Cotchery, right near Rex Ryan. The Jets massive coach then drops this:

"Hey, tackle him at the line of scrimmage, you can't tackle him 50 yards down the field. Hey, you ain't here to tackle nobody, what are you talking about? That's why my brother got rid of your ass."

Splendid! Ryan is referring to his brother Rob Ryan, the former D-Coordinator in Oakland. Hall did get a little redemption by picking off a Dirty Sanchez pass later, but he will never get redemption for being cut 8 games into his $70 million contract by the Raiders!........oh wait, we gave him 6 years and $55 million? Crap.

Quotes courtesy of my DVR box

The New John Wall Dance

I've seen this video of John Wall spontaneously dancing at the NBA rookie photo shoot on a couple other other blogs, but not with the importance of the episode truly appreciated:

I've watched the video several times in the most creepy way possible, and I think John Wall might just have a new dance. That thing he does with the hand behind the head, a la Deion Sanders, with the other hand waving in front of his face, a la Deshawn Stevenson, just might be the new John Wall Dance.

He already has his own shoe, shot, and dance, but just when it seemed John Wall had it all, he done did it again with those fresh moves. My friend's girlfriend also said he's a good dancer, so he's that going for himself too.....

John Wall: Uniting DC Sports

For those of you who missed the 42-17 demolition of the hapless Bills in the Skins season opener, there was 1 beautiful moment in the game, that just got me excited for the season...........................the Wizards season (Sports Bog beat me to this).

After Fred Davis caught a a 2nd quarter TD pass from Sexy Rexy, he proceeded to do his usual endzone dance:

I said to all my friends watching, "How awesome would it be if he'd done the John Wall dance instead?" My friends all laughed hysterically at my tremendous question, but little did we know that this was not such a crazy idea. For when rookie WR Brandon Banks took a punt 77 yards to a land that will be entered frequently (the Bills' endzone), he may have won the job as our punt returner, in addition to my heart:

John Wall was in the house for this, and as the Sports Bog points out, and John Wall tweeted, Banks and Wall are boys from growing up in Raleigh.

The other best part of the game was Doc Walker referring to Rex Grossman as "Sexy Rexy" on more than 1 occasion. I can't find video, but trust me, it happened, and if his producers have a stick up their ass, we may not get to witness that glory again.

Let's just hope these aren't the best Skins highlights of the year.

Wale - The Black & Gold, Complete With D.C. Shoutouts Aplenty

Can you spot 'em? I'm going on record saying this song is dope.