The Redskin Defense is Star-Studded, or So I'm Told

I can't stand it, but the Redskins seem to dominate the news with their absurdity, even in their slowest time of the year. Today's news is that Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher will be joining D******* Hall at the Pro Bowl. Usually I would say 'La dee frickin da!', but instead I am just confused, and not the only one to notice that this doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

For those of you who stomached the Skins this year (or maybe wised up and just read the stats), you know we had the #31 ranked defense in the league, and the #18 offense: that is a horrendous defense and a mediocre offense. Sure, there are no obvious big names on the offense who probably deserve to 'go to the Island', but 3 guys from an awful defense? Are we the most underachieving unit ever and Jim Haslett is the anti-christ? Are the selections on name recognition to blame? Remember, Laron Landry played like a stud too before getting hurt, so could be a 4th selection with a couple more games under his belt.

I actually have an explanation....

You already know my feelings on Hall and I shouldn't need to tell you that his Pro Bowl selection is absurd, so I will skip to Rak and Fletcher. Just look at the Pro Bowl rosters, I count 26 guys who have been selected but are not playing! LFB as a Pro Bowler sounds great, but he has actually only been designated as one of the top 6 middle linebackers in the game. There are maybe 40 starting MLBs in the league, and only maybe half (total guess) play close enough to a full season to be considered for 'the island.' So LFB in the top-6, sure, and really not that impressive, he is better than mediocre, but certainly not being judged as elite.

Along the same line, Rak is gaining recognition as one of the top 9 OLBs in the league, which is slightly more impressive given that there are 64 starting OLBs (not including however many missed significant time with injury).

So 3 players from the 31st ranked D is crazy, but don't look at the Rak and Fletcher selections as the source of the absurdity. You should look at the 3rd guy, who is completely undeserving, but overall, these selections are not as prestigious as they sound, and if you remove Hall, having 2 guys as late additions to the game from an abysmal D is not insane, even if you want to include Landry as being recognized for a fantastic season.

Though the recognition should be mooted, this is a direct reflection of the lack of a supporting cast and the greatest issue that has plagued the Skins for years - going after big names and players at the expense of depth. The Skins should take this to heart, but probably will just chase Carson Palmer and Herschel Walker(!). At least Herschel's comeback would entertain me for what is shaping up to be another rough season DC.

(Image courtesy of goslingphotographyblog.com)

Todd McShay's Mock Shows Redskins Fans No Mercy

Here we go again with Todd McShay's latest (first?) mock draft. This has been out a few days, but I just found it:

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

This is another reach for a quarterback, but the Redskins have parted ways with Donovan McNabb, and Rex Grossman is clearly not the answer. There's no doubt Newton has the physical tools, and coach Mike Shanahan and his staff believe in their ability to develop quarterbacks, but he's still a long-term project as a pro-style passer.

Stop, it hurts.

When has a developmental QB actually developed? Tony Romo is the only guy I can think of.......At least Newton isn't Jake Locker. I made my thoughts on the Heisman winner at #10 clear already, so won't rant endlessly. To be clear, I support keeping Sexy Rexy for at least another year while we build the offensive line and other parts of the team.

The other train wreck we all can see coming stems from Carson Palmer demanding a trade. I guess the Skins constitute an upgrade over the Bengals at this point given we had a better record last year, but Carson is finished. If one good thing comes of the McNabb trade maybe it will be that we don't trade for Carson Palmer.Someone needs to step in and stop the madness, so consider this my application for the Redskins common sense/voice of the fan. Here's an opening letter:

Dear Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder,

I can give you extensive notes on an offseason plan, but here are some basics:

-Don't draft a QB at #10
-Don't trade for Carson Palmer.
-Try to trade down and draft one of the 3 best interior linemen available (Pouncey, Hudson, or Wisniewski)
-Also stop, just stop

Yours truly,

Disgruntled Redskins Fan

(Image courtesy of voice.regisjesuit.com)

The State of the Capitals - A Discussion - Part 2

Here is the 2nd half of a lengthy email chain's discussion about the state of the Caps that I decided to turn into a blog post (2 actually).

Red Rover: I'm calling it right now (I actually was convinced of this in December): Jason Arnott will be a Cap by March.

Future Capital? Picture this but with a Caps Jersey

Bushwood Bushwacker: Yeah, you made that point before and I meant to agree. We are definitely playing a strategically different and more conservative game, even if Ovie and Semin still float and we are slanted towards offense, and of course the PK has been (magically? luckily? BB influenced?) tight. These are clearly changes for the team, and you could say they are playoff-y team skills. It's hard to disagree. At the very least it's trading some offense potency for defense... might as well change it up since the old style couldn't get it done.

RR: Green and Ovie need to be benched on the PP. Put in Carlson instead. The power play has gone from once-in-a-generation to absolutely unwatchable in 8 months. I don't understand.

BB: The pp is mystery/shit show. Ovie on half wall with Semin on the point? Who knows maybe BB just sucks and can't fix them.

Polish Sausage: I definitely concur with the idea that our overall more defensive game makes us better built for the playoffs, but star output is worrisome. Aside from pp, which needs Ovie on the short boards, I think we are coming into our own and set to peak at playoff time. Mojo has been very good I think, better than meh. Hannan has been meh, Carlzner is awesome. That said, how do we acquire Arnott?

RR: Since he's a UFA end of season he can probably be had relatively cheap, but a bidding war could drive up his price. Worst case scenario: we lose Perrault, but ideally 2nd rounder would do it.

PS: Sounds like a perfect move, I like Perrault and his scrappiness but his contributions are limited in the long term. It would be great to pull a Flash type trade and grab up a solid dude like Arnott. 

(Image courtesy of devils.nhl.com)

The State of the Capitals - A Discussion - Part 1

I was privy to a lengthy email chain last week that started with some basic mockery of the Islanders drawing 9,000 fans, which quickly moved onto remembering attending an Orioles-Tigers game on a rainy Wednesday night at Camden yards maybe 7 years ago when the Tigers were historically bad - the game went down as the lowest attended in Camden Yards history until last season, but the actual attendance due to the rain has to make it the lowest actual attendance. We sat in centerfield and when we yelled, the batter could definitely hear us. Oh memories..

Anyway, the email chain turned into a serious discussion about the state of the Caps, so I decided to turn everyone's thoughts into a blog post. This was a long email chain, so I am breaking this into two posts and haven't edited almost anything.

Polish Sausage: Who else likes this years team for the cup more than last (aside from the fact that Bruce continues to strand Ovie on the point during the PP...)?

Red Rover: I vascillate (Ed. Note: we use dictionary words in our spare time). On the one hand, we are not a very good team right now, like, at all. Not good on the power play, not good at possessing the puck, not outshooting the other team, our best players are not our best players right now, and there is a general feeling of flatness/malaise that feels like it's rotting this team from the inside out.

On the other hand, when I thought we were dominant last year, we crapped out in the playoffs, so it would appear that nothing in the regular season matters at all, and i mean nothing. Also we are now able to execute boring, ugly gameplans, where you can win without high-flying goal scoring, and we've seen a few games (Winter Classic, for example) where when you couple that boring defensive gameplan with 100% effort you can win 3-1 and look good, and that's what the playoffs are like and i don't see anything less than 100% effort happening come playoff time, but i've been wrong before about that. And we now have a shutdown D pairing that can also score (Carlson and Alzner) which is quite a luxury, plus if (knock on wood) Varly remains healthy, he's absolutely awesome. Then there's the hope that the law of averages damn will break come April and Ovi, Backstrom, Laich and Semin will all start scoring again in bunches, when it counts.

Then I watch a game again and I'm like goddamn, this team is not very good.

Bushwood Bushwacker: I had basically the same thought process the other night watching the Isles. I thought, "this team HAS to be better than the team we put on the ice last year - there is no way around it. there's no way the core did any worse than maintain, and all of the younger guys MUST have improved (plus obvious steps forward for Karlznerson, though you could say Carlson was really pretty nasty down the stretch last year, and this is just the continuation...) and we replaced Flash, Belanger, Theo and Corvo, with Hannan, Nuevlamoth 2.0, and Perrault/MJo. granted those guys minus the goalies have all been pretty meh, but all we really lost was Flash. and then i thought, well... this isn't the playoffs. maybe these guys have been burnt so badly by the overachieve-in-season/flop-postseason shitck that they just can't do it again. they are playing like an old, veteran NBA team, pacing themselves. Plus, there's the fact we did get pretty lucky last year looking at our shooting %. Maybe this is closer to the true talent of the team. But, I'm guessing not, since a lot of the missing production is Ovie/Back/Green, and those guys are sure as hell going to bounce back.

I have the feeling that as soon as the hockey world counts these guys out of the playoffs, and puts them outside of the circle of serious contenders, is when this team is going to play the best hockey they've played.........ever. Kind of a microcosm of that feeling is how often we come from behind and win games. For whatever reason, this team is a bunch of slackers who probably turned their theses (if they ever went to college...) in 30 seconds before the deadline.They just are built to perform best when they have the fire lit under their asses.
 

Gotta love being the underdog when you really shouldn't be, those teams are always dangerous.

I have hope.

 

RR: I do too, but the issue of course is WHEN that fire lights their asses. There will come a point when it's too late.
 

But like I said, the defensively oriented style is better built for a playoff series because it's more likely to lead to victories when they're not playing their best or when the other team is. The playoffs tighten everything and every team together in performance and ability; last year that meant the Caps' death knell because when their power play went bankrupt they had nothing else to lean on. So with this foundation in place now, we just await that give-a-shit spark to ignite (and the stars to pick it up, which we're all assuming is an inevitability).

 

*****

The 2nd half will posted soon...thought you might need some time to digest....

(Image courtesy of dcprosportsreport.com)

Let Me Show You How Exciting John Wall Is

While you were waiting for the posting to pick back up, I was busy doing some work with the website Thuuz (pronounced like I am en-THOOZ-iastic about Nick Young's 'Thriller' hair) on excitement statistics - you're damn right I just used excitement and statistics in the same sentence.

The site has developed an algorithm to measure the excitement of a sporting event. The main idea they have now is to let you know if a game you have DVR'ed is worth watching (without telling you the score), and when the best time is to start watching. The algorithm takes into account factors such as the game's pace, novelty, and how close the score is. The output is supposed to be the excitement an unbiased individual would get from the game.

They approached me back in November, after I wrote about the Wizards-Pistons game in Detroit for Bullets Forever. The game registered a perfect 100 score in the Thuuz system and it turns out that these guys can do a lot with the algorithm and statistics. I got them to do a breakdown of each player's contribution to the game's excitement. They have done their best work with basketball, but measure the excitement of other sports as well.

For the table below, the only heading needing explanation is 'Impact.' This is a measure of the number of plays a player makes that contribute directly to the game's outcome - I believe this is something close to points, assists, rebounds, etc. The reasoning behind this measure is that the excitement rating would not highly rate a player on a good team, because a team that increases their lead is boring, not exciting, so a measure is needed for these types of players. I hope that makes sense. Without further adieu, the numbers for the Wiz-Pistons game:

		Washington vs. Detroit			11/21/2010
Player	Play Time	Impact	Excitement	Impact/Minute	Excitement/Minute
Arenas	42.80	43	35.32	1.00	0.83
Hinrich	39.40	25	-2.95	0.63	-0.07
Thornton	31.32	17	-3.94	0.54	-0.13
Blatche	43.88	37	-19.97	0.84	-0.46
McGee	42.27	39	-42.98	0.92	-1.02
Armstrong	10.63	4	-14.10	0.38	-1.33
Young	30.68	20	5.92	0.65	0.19
Booker	9.15	4	0.99	0.44	0.11
Martin	14.67	9	-9.43	0.61	-0.64

Not surprisingly, Gil was the Wizards most impactful and exciting player. The interesting thing about this game though, is that John Wall did not play. So what happens when you add JWow to the mix? Fortunately, the Wiz played another game just 2 days later that also was a 100 on the excitement scale, this time with the Future. Here are the numbers:

		Philadelphia vs. Washington			11/23/2010
Player	Play Time	Impact	Excitement	Impact/Minute	Excitement/Minute
Arenas	41.98	21	114.67	0.50	2.73
Hinrich	34.85	21	58.08	0.60	1.67
Thornton	8.17	0	6.28	0.00	0.77
Blatche	42.70	37	62.35	0.87	1.46
McGee	45.85	61	22.88	1.33	0.50
Armstrong	5.45	1	-8.99	0.18	-1.65
Wall	35.93	33	135.84	0.92	3.78
Martin	6.40	1	12.74	0.16	1.99
Young	31.75	27	74.61	0.85	2.35
Booker	11.87	9	7.30	0.76	0.62

Granted, it was a huuuge game for JWow, but look at his excitement rating! This is only 1 game, but the bottom line is that Wall was the most exciting player from any team in either game. This also gives a nice little comparison of how the team looks in terms of impact with Wall on and off the court.  I obviously sat on this data way too long, and any comparison with Gil Arenas is now moot with him off the team. If you are wondering why the Wizards have more total excitement in the 76ers game, it is because the rest of the excitement is accounted for by the opposition, so the Wizards drove the excitement in game #2.

Thuuz is starting to do a lot more with all of their data, so I just wanted to give you a taste of what they do as I begin to post their data more regularly. I have discussed with them what types of stats and metrics would be most interesting and useful, so let me know any and all ideas. The next step is for Thuuz to get larger sample sizes for individual players so we can truly track who is exciting over the course of a season........that way we'll have proof when John Wall becomes the league's most exciting player.

Mel Kiper Thinks The Offseason Dynasty Will Continue

I first of all should say that the break in blogging was because I was swamped by a lot of personal 'stuff', but am back and refreshed or something like that.........

I can't say I didn't see this coming, but Mel Kiper's first mock draft came out today and, well, I can't say I didn't warn you:

10. Washington Redskins
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
A gifted athlete, Newton has good arm strength and size, has developing accuracy and continues to show that the more you ask him as a passer, the more he'll develop. This spot might be a bit high based on his current grade in the eyes of scouts, but Newton's skill-set is such that personnel people are going to become more enamored, if they already aren't. Newton has character questions that need to be answered, but the Redskins have a long-term need at this position and the prospect of developing Newton is a tantalizing one.

Pleaselordno.

I could give you the whole whole running QB thing being a bad idea, especially while our offensive line is a gaping hole of suck, but let's look at this more rationally and use some metrics. Football Outsiders has found a way to predict college quarterback performance in the pros with 2 simple stats: games started and completion percentage. I understand he put together the best individual season in recent memory, but for metrics, well he only started 1 full season. 66% completion  rate is great, but that figure is relative to others in the same school supposedly in a relatively similar system, and the immortal Chris Todd managed over 60% in 2009, so 66% is not that impressive. The overall metric indication on Cam Newton is: pleaselordno.

Soooo, what should the Skins do? Ryan Mallett actually has terrific metrics thanks to starting 2.5 years and would be a better QB pick. Even better though? Well, I have some bad news. I am a nut about the NFL draft, and Kiper's mock highlights the fact that there is a big dropoff after the first 9 players - and guess who picks #10!

Clearly, the Skins should trade back, take an o-lineman, Ryan Mallett, or just about anybody not named Cam Newton, even if we get to call him 'Killa Cam.' On the bright side, drafting the controversial Heisman trophy winner would continue the offseason dynasty that almost no team can take away from us.

(Image courtesty of mobilephoneunlimited.com)

Better Than The Capitals Power Play

This sound.



Yea, I'm completely fucking frustrated.

/Throws Ovechkin bobblehead against the wall which, coincidentally, is WHERE HE SHOULD BE ON EVERY SINGLE MAN ADVANTAGE.

Start Your Office Pools: When Will the Wizards Get Their First Road Win?

Oh and fifteen 

0-15

Zero for 15

29 games into the season, the Wizards are 7-22, holding worst record in the East, and 2nd-worst in the entire league ahead of only the 5-23 Kings (one of those 5 Kings wins was over the Wiz too). That is bad, but 0-15 on the road is a turd sandwich. For those of you curious, according to wikipedia, the worst road record ever also belongs to this franchise: the '53-'54 Baltimore Bullets went 0-20 on the road. What is it about changing that name back?

Eh, isn't 0-20 coming up soon?

This season has long been chalked up (down?) to rebuilding, so I say we should enjoy the futility while we can......with a pool! Pools are good for babies, March Madness, swimming, they never fail. The Wiz 'only' have 27 road games left, so get started!

Call me crazy, but I think the Wiz may actually win a road game soon, and I don't mean by the end of the season. We get the 76ers on January 5th, and have 2 of our 7 wins against them already, and then follow that game with a trip to Charlotte on the 8th, and then 8-24 Minnesota on the 13th. After that, our next good shot is February 13th against the Cavs, but that's the 2nd night of a back-to-back, so scratch that one. If we don't win one of the Philly, Charlotte, or T'Wolves games, then this could get very hairy very quickly.

Will we be favored in any of those games? Hell no! If anyone gets a pool going though, put me down for Philly.

(Image courtesy of commons.wikimedia.org)

Week 16: Redskins 20, Jaguars 17: Knee Jerk Reactions

The Redskin's season is almost mercifully over! Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the penultimate game of the season:

This seriously felt like a preseason game until the 4th quarter. The Skins were playing almost all backups, and the Jags were missing MJD and a few other guys. There just wasn't an intensity today, which is odd when you have so many guys playing for their future in the league.

I know this win hurts our draft position and thus may bad in the long term, but you can't help but think this group needed a W with all the drama going around.

• Sex Cannon's record as a starter in the state of Florida counting his college days has got to be something like 47-2.
• The gator chomp? Rex, seriously?
• Brandon Banks in the wildcat should be the focus of our offense next week. It would keep my interest and get the Banks Pro Bowl train back at full speed.
• Kevin Barnes at safety could merely be necessity, but also maybe a sign the teams doesn't think he will be a decent corner.
• The Jags look awful, how are they a potential division winner?
• Speaking of the opposition, maybe the Skins should take a page out of their book and spend our first 2 picks on o-linemen.
• Anthony Bryant may have played himself onto the roster for next season.
• Casey Rabach needs to go ASAP.
• Going for it on 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line with the game on the line is the right call. Not only is it statistically the right move, but we are 5-9, so who cares! 
• Joe Joseph? As in Joseph Joseph? Wow.
• The o-line was not awful today, but not great. Hicks and Dockery/Licht*&#$& all still need to be replaced.
• We are no 4-4 on the road, and 2-5 at home, hmmmm. Almost makes me feel guilty for never going to games...

(Image courtesy of 1800-sports.com)

Redskins - Jaguars Live Chat on TBD.com

If you are watching today's game alone, it will probably feel a little bit like drinking alone - but fear not! Come join the TBD.com live chat and drink, err chat, with fellow devoted fans. I will be there as a panelist along with a few other Redskins bloggers.

Check it out here: Redskins-Jaguars Live Chat