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I can't say I didn't see this coming, but Mel Kiper's first mock draft came out today and, well, I can't say I didn't warn you:
10. Washington Redskins
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
A gifted athlete, Newton has good arm strength and size, has developing accuracy and continues to show that the more you ask him as a passer, the more he'll develop. This spot might be a bit high based on his current grade in the eyes of scouts, but Newton's skill-set is such that personnel people are going to become more enamored, if they already aren't. Newton has character questions that need to be answered, but the Redskins have a long-term need at this position and the prospect of developing Newton is a tantalizing one.
I could give you the whole whole running QB thing being a bad idea, especially while our offensive line is a gaping hole of suck, but let's look at this more rationally and use some metrics. Football Outsiders has found a way to predict college quarterback performance in the pros with 2 simple stats: games started and completion percentage. I understand he put together the best individual season in recent memory, but for metrics, well he only started 1 full season. 66% completion rate is great, but that figure is relative to others in the same school supposedly in a relatively similar system, and the immortal Chris Todd managed over 60% in 2009, so 66% is not that impressive. The overall metric indication on Cam Newton is: pleaselordno.
Soooo, what should the Skins do? Ryan Mallett actually has terrific metrics thanks to starting 2.5 years and would be a better QB pick. Even better though? Well, I have some bad news. I am a nut about the NFL draft, and Kiper's mock highlights the fact that there is a big dropoff after the first 9 players - and guess who picks #10!
Clearly, the Skins should trade back, take an o-lineman, Ryan Mallett, or just about anybody not named Cam Newton, even if we get to call him 'Killa Cam.' On the bright side, drafting the controversial Heisman trophy winner would continue the offseason dynasty that almost no team can take away from us.
(Image courtesty of mobilephoneunlimited.com)
Agree on all points: 1)Newton has bust written all over him for all the points you've mentioned, 2)I've been mulling over the "best QB available at 10" issue for a couple weeks now and come to the same conclusion, Mallett is not only the best option but in my opinion the best QB in the draft. In addition to his number of starts and completion% he has maintained a TD-Int ratio of over 3-1 the past two seasons while still posting a YPA over 9. The YPA is the main factor that separates Mallett from Gabbert (statistically) who has had a YPA of 6.7 and 8 the past two years, ouch! I have read some interesting research on YPA as another important factor in college QB prospects and Mallett looks great in this regard.
ReplyDeleteEven though it is most likely that the Skins will stand pat and take a QB at 10, I also concur that we should trade down (maybe with Jags or Dolphins in the middle of the round? They both could be interested in snagging a QB at 10, then we could pick up Mike Pouncey at 15 or 16 and anchor the line for the next decade with Silverback...) and rebuild through high picks in o-line, d-line, and maybe a project QB later in the draft.
So given the assumption that we don't budge from 10, I offer another option, Julio Jones (if still available). The 2nd best WR in the draft looks to be a stud in all regards with the exception of inconsistent hands. He looks to me like a Terrell Owens type sans attitude problems. That works for me. WR is a huge need for the skins and he would allow us to get by on another year or so of Rex "Dr. Adequate" Grossman while we develop a late round QB project or even take a QB in the 1st round of 2012. I mean can you argue with this:
http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/651/431/107160287_display_image.jpg?1295494422
or this:
http://blog.al.com/tidecorner/2008/08/medium_julio-jump.jpg
or this:
http://secfb.neswblogs.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Julio-Jones.jpg
I would rather have a sick WR target and solid o-line in place before putting a young developing QB in the firing line.
Cam Newton is the only 1 player in the draft that could immediately make our team potential winners early on (even though he is a likely bust). He is also the only player that could make our team watchable for the next 2 years. We are terribly bad and horribly boring to watch.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, he is a terrible choice. We need to suffer for a few years and build through the draft an o-line, d-line, receiving corps, qb and rb to make this work. I think the idea of a Julio Jones pick is great. He could mature when our future QB (whoever that may be) will mature.
With our success or lack of it picking WR's in the first round, no way do I think it should be a WR. I am all for trading back, picking up a mid to late 1 and another 2 and using that 1 and those 2's all on oline and dline picks. Better to pick up a couple WR's in free agency if we can.
ReplyDeleteJulio Jones would be outstanding. Also, there are no attitude problems. I think that's way off base.
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of trading down and getting additional picks, though.