Saturday, September 12, 2009

Redskins Season Predictions

Skins season begins tomorrow, and man are we excited. Giggles.

To get things kicked off, here's a rundown of the schedule and our predictions - no, guarantees - of what will happen week-by-week, with no provided explanation because a) I don't have any and b) I DON'T OWE YOU NOTHIN' SON. I expect no less than 4 angry comments after each game recap:

1
Sun, Sep 13
4:15 PM
W 31-20
2
Sun, Sep 20
1:00 PM
W 31-13
3
Sun, Sep 27
1:00 PM
W 21-10
4
Sun, Oct 4
1:00 PM
W 26-24
5
Sun, Oct 11
1:00 PM
L 13-17
6
Sun, Oct 18
1:00 PM
W 29-17
7
Mon, Oct 26
8:30 PM
W 14-13
8
BYE WEEK
9
Sun, Nov 8
1:00 PM
L 10-31
10
Sun, Nov 15
1:00 PM
W 28-6
11
Sun, Nov 22
1:00 PM
L 12-25
12
Sun, Nov 29
1:00 PM
L 20-31
13
Sun, Dec 6
1:00 PM
W 19-17
14
Sun, Dec 13
4:05 PM
W 38-3
15
Mon, Dec 21
8:30 PM
L 17-23
16
Sun, Dec 27
8:20 PM
W 23-20
17
Sun, Jan 3
4:15 PM
W 24-14

So, for those of you keeping score at home, that's 11-5. Yup, 11-5.

Preemptive apologies for all jinxes I may have inflicted on the team but shoot, come Week 13, how else am I supposed to prove that I knew a LaRon Landry pick-6 in the fourth quarter would propel the Skins to victory over New Orleans in a vicious fight for playoff positioning. And you wanna be my latex salesman.

And quickly, my predicted end of season standings in all NFL divisions (*wild card teams):

NFC EAST
1. NYG
2. WAS*
3. PHI
4. DAL

NFC NORTH
1. MIN
2. GB*
3. CHI
4. DET

NFC SOUTH
1. NO
2. ATL
3. CAR
4. TB

NFC WEST
1. SEA
2. ARI
3. SF
4. STL

AFC EAST
1. NE
2. BUF
3. MIA
5. NYJ

AFC NORTH
1. PIT
2. BAL*
3. CIN
4. CLE
Bold
AFC SOUTH
1. HOU
2. IND*
3. TEN
4. JAX

AFC WEST
1. SD
2. KC
3. OAK
4. DEN

NFC Playoffs:

-WAS over SEA
-MIN over GB
---NO over WAS
---NYG over MIN
-----NYG over NO

AFC Playoffs:

-SD over IND
-BAL over HOU
---BAL over NE
---SD over PIT
-----BAL over SD

Super Bowl: BAL over NYG

DC Takes Collective Swig of Whiskey - ESPN Lists JC as the #25 QB in NFL

Using a system similar to that used by Baseball Prospectus to project player performance by using performance trends by players with similar statistic profiles, Football Outsiders provided ESPN with a piece on career projections for the top-35 current NFL QBs. Bare in mind that this is not based on current ability, so longer-tenured guys who have already massed a career's worth of yards will rank highly, such as Favre, Collins, and Culpepper.

For those of you without an ESPN The Mag Subscription, here is the list in order of projected career passing yards:

1) Peyton Manning

2) Brett Favre

3) Drew Brees

4) Tom Brady

5) Carson Palmer

6) Donovan McNabb

7) Jay Cutler

8) Kerry Collins

9) Philip Rivers

10) Ben Roethlisberger

11) Kurt Warner

12) Matty Ryan

13) Matt Schaubb

14) Eli Manning

15) Matt Hasselbeck

16) Tony Romo

17) David Garrard

18) Aaron Rodgers

19) Joe Flacco

20) Marc Bulger

21) Daunte Culpepper

22) Jake Delhomme

23) Chad Pennington

24) Trent Edwards

25) Jason Campbell

26) Matt Cassel

27) Vince Young

28) Derek Anderson

29) Shaun Hill

30) JaMarcus Russell

31) Michael Vick

32) Kyle Orton

33) Byron Leftwich

34) Matt Leinart

35) Kellen Clemens

The article's blurb for JC says, "Most comps had long careers, but as backups (O'Donnell, Jon Kitna)." This is interesting, as it is in stark contrast to FO's career forecast for JC based on his college stats, and their 2009 take that the rest of the offense made his numbers look bad last year.

All we know for certain about JC right now is that his GF is smokin', and not much else.

(Image of JC's smokin' hot GF courtesy of giftqb.wordpress.com/2009/08/01/qb-weekender)

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Testing Football Outsiders Metrics - NFL Week 1 Picks

Here is an incredibly unoriginal idea, pick NFL games against the spread. Everyone does this, so I added a twist by arming myself with the Football Outsiders (FO) picks against the spread (available to premium subscribers only). I am rolling up my sleeves and competing with FO, so we will track these picks over the year, and can even throw in some other 'celebrity' pickers, such as Bill Simmons of ESPN.com.

The FO "Picks against the spread" are based on an equation that combines the preseason projection and (except in Week 1) current DVOA (using certain specific splits, not just each team's total) as well as weather and injuries. These picks are listed in order of confidence based on the lines listed. " Last year, FO finished with a 53.8% success rate against the spread during the regular season, and I finished at 53.1% (I have proof) which are both okay, but one needs 55%+ to make money if one were to engage in such an illegal activity as wagering with these picks.

I will now list the FO picks in order of confidence, and then bold a team wherever I differ.
  1. Chicago +3.5 over GREEN BAY - They love Chicago, but I'm shocked this is the FO lock of the week. Even straight-up, Chicago is their #4 pick. Partly to show I'm not fellating FO as I write this, I'm taking GB with the new D.

  2. Detroit +13 over NEW ORLEANS - High spread is driving this pick, that and NO's defense still stinks, but Stafford, child please!

  3. NEW ENGLAND -11 over Buffalo - Easiest pick on the board. Remember when they used to annihilate everyone, well, this could be like 2 years ago. Over/under on disgruntled TO shots, I say 2.5.

  4. Kansas City +13 over BALTIMORE - This line is incredibly high for week 1 in the parity-driven NFL, but KC without Cassel makes this a blowout, and he's probably not playing, and definitely not playing at 100%.

  5. San Diego -9.5 over OAKLAND - 2nd easiest pick on the board.

  6. St. Louis +8.5 over SEATTLE - FO has St. Louis as a big sleeper, at least relative to last year's performance, but I think Housh and Deion Branch (healthy for this game at least) will shred that pathetic secondary.

  7. HOUSTON -4.5 over NY Jets - Houston should be a playoff team is Schaub plays at least close to all 16 games.

  8. Tennessee +6.5 over PITTSBURGH - This line is too high for an obvious defensive struggle.

  9. Jacksonville +7 over INDIANAPOLIS - Jax always plays Indy close.

  10. San Francisco +6.5 over ARIZONA - FO hates Zona', mostly because their metrics think Kurt Warner will get hurt or fall flat on his face because of his age. Too bad their metrics don't account for him being from Krypton and not adhering to their petty metrics.

  11. NY GIANTS -6.5 over Washington - The Orioles will win the World Series bef0re I'll pick against the Redskins.

  12. Minnesota -4 over CLEVELAND - I think this is one of the easier games on the board, but perhaps Favre's adaptation to Minny will slow their O-down a little.

  13. Philadelphia -1.5 over CAROLINA - Can't get over Delhomme's playoff meltdown.

  14. Miami +4 over ATLANTA - Atlanta can't improve much more, but I don't like Miami. That said, the reason a lot of people are down on Miami is their schedule, not their ability.

  15. CINCINNATI -4 over Denver - Ochocinco could have a huge year, but not this week against Champ Bailey.

  16. Dallas -6 over TAMPA BAY - Tampa has a shot and is probably better than most people think, but I want to see 'it' first.
Sports Guy has Cousin Sal, and FO has their metrics, but a wise man once said to me, "All you do is drink beer and pick winners!" Bring it on!

(Image courtesy of bostonsportsmedia.com)

Oriole Cavalry Slowling Comes Marching In

We posted about the small army of Oriole pitching prospects a few months ago, and are finally ready for an update. The reason for the delay is that Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz made Christmas come a little early for Birds fans by being called-up to the big leagues, so tracking their stats seemed like stating the obvious.

That said, the Oriole pitching army goes beyond Tillman and Matusz, so here is a quick glance at each prospect's stats at his current level (note that the minor league season has ended, so all non-MLB stats are final, and this does not include Tillman's 27 k's perfect game that will happen tomorrow night). For the non-Sabermatricians, ERA and Wins are excluded because they are not the most performance indicators, the best indicators are Ks, BBs, and HRs allowed:




The quick notes:
  • The golden arm, Tillman, has had a rough start, but is still only 21 and is considered less polished than Matusz, so I wouldn't worry too much about his MLB stats so far. BTW, his triple-A stats were phenomenal and he probably still has 'the force'.
  • Matusz has been great after a rocky start to his MLB career, but you probably already knew that.
  • Hernandez has had a rough time, and continues to look like a bullpen guy long-term. On the bright side, he has inspired all non-steroid abusers that they have HR power.
  • Bergesen was not included in the first article, but has been the surprise this year. His K/BB ratio and HR-allowed rate are solid, but his K/IP isn't great so his upside is still much lower than that of Tillman or Matusz, despite already having a solid MLB season under his belt.
  • Arrieta hasn't exactly dominated triple-A, but has done well and is in line to be with the O's in 2010. His ceiling has dropped a little, but his performance has not been a huge concern, just a little slower than I had hoped.
  • Troy Patton is struggling mightily in triple-A, so much so that I'm leaning towards nicknaming him TP. His chances of being the 5th starter are all-but gone, maybe a bullpen role could work.
  • Erbe overcame an early season arm injury and has pitched well. He hasn't been overwhelming, but very good, and should be a strong performer in double-A at age 22.
  • Zach Britton has steadily become perhaps our most promising prospect outside of the majors. Still only in single-A, but his numbers have been great, and at age 21 has at least caught Erbe in terms of prospect status.

I know pitching prospects are like lottery tickets, but it is not hard to see Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, and Bergeson being future rotation pitchers. Tillman and Matusz have the chance to be special, and Hernandez, Patton, and Erbe, haven't set the world on fire, but could certainly be great relievers. As we said a few months ago, the O's have some depth in arms, so our chances of filling a good and cheap rotation are very high; this is not like the Nats pinning their hopes on 1-2 guys. Yeah, I'm optimistic, but this is the most promise we've had in the gonorrhea capital since Brady Anderson's timed his steroid cycle perfectly and that fat yutz Maier ripped our season from Tony Tarasco's glove.

In other news, the O's are a tidy 34 games out of first place and the sun set in the West tonight.

(Stats courtesy of the Frederick Keys, Bowie Baysox, Norfold Tides, and ESPN.com)

Sporting News Manages to Be Even More Full of Crap Than ESPN

While perusing the DMV on Mr Irrelevant this morning, I came across this embarrassing article from the Sporting news on the top-100 players in the NFL. This list did come from a supposed panel of experts, but come on, this is awful, and I'm not just saying that because it is very different from the DCLS Redskin rankings, which used far different criteria. Age is excluded here, but name-players are far and away overvalued, although I do enjoy seeing Fat Albert as the #1 defensive player (and also find it hard to believe that he isn't as good as Fitzgerald or LDT right now).

Some of the lowlights:

  • Ray Lewis #11.
  • Brees behind Big Ben.
  • Nnamdi Asomugha is the #8 defensive player, yet is probably the best player in the league relative to his position; he is head and shoulders above every other CB.
  • Brian Dawkins at #39. Maybe he ranked there about 8 years ago. Find me the GM who thinks he is better than LaRon Landry and I will show you the Cincinnati Bengals.
  • TO at #33 is probably the most egregious listing. There is a place for over the hill receivers like him, Dancing With The Stars, not a list of top-100 NFL players this season.
  • No wait, Vick at #88 is just absurd. He hasn't played in 2 years and is a 3rd string QB. Wow. Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Homo did not make the list.
I could run Football Outsiders metrics for days explaining the horror of this list, but I'm getting dizzy just trying to wrap my head around its logic. Maybe they used some votes from a few years ago to boost the old guys...

(Image courtesy of thebestgspot.com)
Not So Breaking News Bulletin: World Wide Leader Doesn't Know ANYTHING!

I just thought this list, actually published TODAY, was so ridiculous it deserved its own news bulletin. I'll preface it with this: the unsigned Michael Crabtree is a more notable Week One rookie to watch than Brian Orakpo, or Matt Stafford for that matter. I've lost all faith in humanity.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Will Andre's Giants Crush the Cult of Colt?!?

So I already ran a piece comparing Colt Brennan to Chase Daniel, but the new kid on the block felt left-out, and my Mom always told me I should include the new guys who don't know anybody.

Enter Andre Woodson, maybe just a source of information on the Giant offense for week 1, but also maybe the Redskins next young QB (shutup Coughlin, you brought in Nemo in a blatant attempt to dig up some intel). At least according to the Zornstar, we considered taking him instead of Colt, until the G-women scooped him up. Instead of the Cult of Colt, would it have been Andre's Giants, but I digress?

As mentioned before, the 2 key stats from Football Outsiders for projecting college QBs are games started in college and completion %. Here are the numbers:

-38 games started (3 year starter), a career 61.9% passer(791/1278), and age 25 in 2009.

The games started figure is nice to see, but the completion % isn't exactly eye-popping. Woodson's predecessor and succesors don't supply much context either, as he was preceeded by a running QB, Shane Boyd, who only completed 52.5% of his passes Woodson's Freshman year. Last year, the Wildcat QBs collectively mustered a pathetic 54.7%. So Woodson did outperform his comparables, but it is hard to say exactly if that difference is significant. In 2008, Football Outsiders indicated that Woodson was a bit rough around the edges, but would have time to develop on the defending Super Bowl Chumps. This year, FO prophetically stated,

"Woodson still has a great arm, but efforts to change his mechanics and speed up his delivery while improving his accuracy haven't taken. With the existing coaching staff sour on him, Woodson's likely to lose his roster spot to Rhett Bhomar in training camp."

Woodson's profile is actually very similar to that of Chase Daniel: both started for 3 years, outperformed their comparables by about 5% in completion rate, were preceeded by a running QB that makes analysis difficult, and were the QB of the best team in their respective school's history. That said, the 'eyeball scouting' flaws couldn't be more different. Woodson is big and athletic, and suffers from a huge windup, a little like younger JC and a lot like Byron Leftwich. Woodson's other big flaw is that the offense he ran at KU was remarkably simple, but this is also something Chase Daniel is fighting, as the Mizzou offense was completely different from a pro-style offense, which is part of what hurt Jeremy Maclin on draft day.

What does this all mean? The metrics for all of these guys are similar, with the only big differentiator being age; Daniel is 2 years younger than Woodson, and 3 years younger than Colt. Overall, I'd say that given Woodson and Colt have already struggled in the NFL and won't be getting a significant chance to play until they are at least 26 and 27, I don't see either of them amounting to much. Chase Daniel wasn't Johnny Unitas this preseason, but he has a few more years to figure things out, and is already playing on a similar level to the other 2.
Woodson could provide the key to beating the Giants ("....Eli can't stand being called a chubby chaser..."), but is not an improvement over what we already have in Colt, and is a bit of a downgrade, long-term, over Chase Daniel.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

DC's Most Classy Franchise Soon To Be Associated With Television's Douchiest Franchise

Red Rover emerges from his law school slumber to report that at least one castmember of The Real World DC is working for the Caps as an "intern", as part of the show's meager attempts at instilling respectability in its usually vapid and unlikeable castmembers.

If you haven't heard, MTV's hit franchise, The Real World, is currently filming its 574th season in DC. If you're unfamiliar with the show, they usually find a local company looking to garner some publicity in the 14-year-old-non-stop-text-messager demographic by providing "jobs" for the cast. One year they had members of the show make smoothies (Miami?), another year they worked at a surf shop (Hawaii), another year they were party publicists (Vegas). That job actually made sense though, because it trained them well for their post-Real World careers making paid appearances at terrible bars around the country. ("Hey, I saw DARREN from REAL WORLD SANTA CRUZ at LIBATION STATION in POUGHKEEPSIE last weekend, it was soo sweet braaaa!! We're facebook friends now!")

Because the Real Worlders are unequivocal failures when it comes to basic adulthood, in most cases they are given minimal responsibility. In the actual real world, lower case r, lower case w, that's called being unemployable; to MTV and the organizations that "employed" these dinkuses, that's great entertainment and publicity, respectively.

So for a classy organization like the Caps to bring these MTVers into the fold, I can only hope they have their wits about them. If this guy "Ty" is given any more responsibility than to count the leaves on the trees outside Kettler, I'm blaming any season henceforth that does not end in a Stanley Cup victory on Viacom, Inc., and bringing suit, and according to these law books I have to read every night, I just might have a legitimate claim.

[Image via DC Sports Bog]

Should the Skins Not Have Chased Daniel?

Embarrassingly bad wordplay aside, for those of you who do not read Football Outsiders (FO), firstly, you should start reading them, and secondly, the writers have devised an accurate system for predicting the pro success of college QBs, called the Lewin Career Forecaster. The system is actually pretty simple; after running all kinds of ideas through regression analysis, it turns out that games started in college and completion percentage are the 2 stats that matter, that's it. Not TD passes, wins, INTs, or anything else, and to be clear, completion % is relative to that of other QBs at the school to account for consistently high-scoring spread offenses or QBs coming from bad teams. The system is only applied to QBs selected in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft, so as to incorporate some eyball scouting.

This metric system isn't foolproof: FO did list Colt Brennan as the top QB prospect going into the 2007 college season due to his absurd production at Hawaii, but did note that his production could only go down in his senior season. The 2007 FO annual book also said about JC, "This year he is ready to make the leap to Pro Bowl-level performance, firmly establishing himself as the best quarterback to come out of the 2005 draft." His weak competition from that draft (Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith) aside, maybe this is one of the reasons the rookie QB projection was dropped from the 2009 edition of the FO book. In 2008, FO was still bullish on Colt, particularly as a fit in a West Coast Offense, but does note that the system works best for QBs taken in the top-2 rounds of the draft. This year, FO states "...there is room for encouragement.", but also notes that Brennan "...doesn't have the the arm, or feel for play-action..." to play outside of a West Coast Offense.

Using this system, we should be able to determine whether the Skins made the right choice in dropping Chase Daniel. Unfortunately, FO only ran their projections for college QBs in the 2006 and 2007 editions of their book, so I did a little research to create this comparison:

Chase Daniel - 40 games started (3 year starter), 68.0% (1094/1584), age 23 season in 2009
Colt Brennan - 37 games started (3 year starter), 70.4% (1115/1584), age 26 season in 2009

Not much difference looking at the stats, the biggest difference is the age, which indicates that Colt is running out of time to 'figure it out', whereas Daniel has a season or 2 to learn the ropes.

Both of these guys have great completion rates, but how do they compare to the QBs preceeding them? Colt followed a guy whose name might ring a bell, Timmy Chang, who holds the NCAA all-time passing yardage mark, but what concerns this discussion is just his completion %. Chang's last 2 seasons where 58.7% in 2003, and 59.5% in 2004. In 2008, Colt was followed primarily by Greg Alexander, who was up to 62.9%, although the Hawaii QB group as a whole combined for 59.2%. These are all solid completion rates, but well below the standard set by Colt.

Chase Daniel is a bit tougher to evaluate, as his predecessor was Brad Smith, who is in the NFL, but as a WR for the Jets. Smith managed 59.4% in 2005 and 51.8% in 2004, but was a running quarterback, so not comparable to Daniel. Blaine Gabbert, a top recruit is following Daniel now, and was at 75.8% in his first game this season and should provide a much better barometer of Chase Daniel's collegiate performance.

In conclusion, we have 2 qbs with similar collegiate stats. Colt Brennan significantly outperformed his predecessor and successor, whereas Chase Daniel does not have a basis for comparison yet. On the other hand, Chase Daniel is 3 years younger than Colt Brennan, and the history of QBs suddenly putting it together with limited experience at age 26 or later is not strong.

My take is that the Skins didn't love either guy but have a fan-favorite and teammate-favorite who has experience in the system. But what if Chase Daniel had been around last year to become the fan favorite 3rd QB (always happens), and garner the friendship and trust of his teammates? Daniel has the better chance of success given his age, and will now learn the ropes behind fellow undersized QB Drew Brees in New Orleans. I don't think we just let go of the next Tom Brady, but we probably did hold on to the wrong guy. Colt had an "injury" that allows us to keep him without using a roster spot - couldn't we invent an injury for Chase Daniel?

(Image courtesy of wai.redskins.com)

Monday, September 7, 2009

Ranking the Top 25 Redskins

Picture this extremely unmagical and highly unrealistic scenario:

The Redskins were suddenly contracted.

What would happen next is a dispersal draft would take place, relocating our beloved Redskins one-by-one to different cities around the league.

Obviously, teams would draft in consideration of a number of variables such as team needs, ability, character, age, contract status, etc.

For the sake of this blog post, and the big board below, we have decided to disregard all things contractual in an attempt to assess the true value of each player on the football field.* However illogical it may be, for the moment try to imagine if every player made the league minimum, was signed to a life-time contract, and the Skins were no more. Which current Redskins possess the most value in a dispersal draft in this super messed up circumstance?

1. Albert Haynesworth - This one is pretty much a no-brainer, although the fact that he has only played the full 16 games once in his career is somewhat of a concern. Still, he's the most dominating DT in the game and certainly acts the part.
2. Brian Orakpo - The 13th overall pick in the 2009 draft is making the 12 teams that passed on him look like dinguses. Maybe one of them would learn from their mistake in the dispersal draft? He has the tools to become scary good.
3. LaRon Landry - From a very biased (obviously) standpoint, he is quite possibly the most physically gifted safety in the league. Whether he puts it all together and becomes the star most scouts envisioned when he was drafted still remains to be seen, but he's only 24. I like his chances.
4. Jason Campbell - All you haters can suck it. He's a quarterback. He's the epitome of class. He's got a cannon for an arm. He's only 27. He's big. He's mobile. His teammates love him. Disliking him is an impossibility. He has value, and he has a lot of it.
5. Carlos Rogers - Yea, he drops passes that are thrown right at him. But there's plenty of value in a shutdown corner, which Rogers can be when he's on top of his game. Oh, and there's this.
6. Chris Cooley - He's got great hands, runs good routes, blocks like a champ, never goes down after first contact, and has a smokin' hot wife.
7. DeAngelo Hall - He's only 25, which is weird, because it seems like he's been in the league for about 10 years. He still has elite speed and big play ability. He also still has questionable character and can be inconsistent in coverage. So...
8. Santana Moss - Homerun hitter that can go the distance every time the ball's in his hands. Unfortunately those hands are questionable, as is his ability to stay healthy.
9. Clinton Portis - Ranking this low is no knock on Portis, whom I love in a borderline heterosexual way. But his age (28) and career carries (2,052) aren't headed south any time soon, and the wealth of good young running backs around the league makes him somewhat expendable in this scenario.
10. Chris Samuels - Slowly on the decline but still able to protect the blindside, and pretty well at that. Should have a few more excellent seasons left in the tank.
11. Chris Horton - He had a better rookie season than anyone could have envisioned. He's not the most physically gifted player but always seems to find the ball and make plays.
12. London Fletcher - His age is somewhat a concern but his durability is not, having NEVER missed a game in 11 years. Jesus. Great defensive quarterback who also happens to be a tackling machine.
13. Derrick Dockery - Above average guard who excels in the running game. He turns 29 in a few days, so he's not old, but he's also not young...I don't really have much to say about Derrick Dockery.
14. Casey Rabach - He's 32 but a good center cannot be undervalued. Plus, centers have been known to have pretty long careers.
15. Mike Sellers - He's one of the best fullbacks in the game, Redskins fan or not. He can catch out of the backfield, plow through you, or screw it, leap over you. But most importantly, he is a bruising blocker and a scary-looking dude, the two prerequisites to being a great fullback.
16. Andre Carter - He's 30 years old, by no means a star, and most likely on the decline, but he's still got some value in his underrated speed off the edge. Would probably benefit by not being the primary guy.
17. Malcolm Kelly - Still somewhat of a mystery, although an excellent preseason has restored some of the previous hype. Good hands, GREAT flow.
18. Kedric Golston - He's only 26 and massively underrated, IMHO. Would be a starter on most teams in the league, especially those without the guy ranked first on this list occupying their d-line.
19. Rocky McIntosh- Injuries have slowed him considerably, but he's still tackles like a champ when healthy.
20. Stephon Heyer - He's still very raw but looks to have the size to succeed at right tackle. Wouldn't be an exciting pick, but also wouldn't be baseless or impractical.
21. Devin Thomas - See Kelly, Malcolm, but subtract a few tenths of a second off the 40-time, and add the words "lacks" and "focus" right next to one another.
22. Antwaan Randle-El - Has a lot of value as a slot receiver and emergency quarterback. Can return punts for you if you're not big on production.
23. Cornelius Griffin - Makes the list in spite of his age (32) because of his career body of work and the respect he commands as a defensive leader.
24. Lorenzo Alexander - He's only 26 years old and is without a definite position, but his size and versatility - plays offense, defense, and special teams - and willingness to do whatever is asked of him gets him on this list.
25. Ladell Betts - How many of you knew he is actually 2 years older than Clinton Portis? In football years, however, he's probably about 6 years younger, and has proven to be a more than servicable feature back. In other words, seems like he's got a lot left in the tank.

Guys who just missed the cut: Anthony Montgomery, Kevin Barnes, Rock Cartwright, Marko Mitchell, Colt Brennan

[Images via SI.com, Sean Conroy Blog, and Bleacher Report]

*This also may not be too impractical an exercise as the NFL seems to be headed toward an uncapped season in 2010-2011.

Chris Cooley Takes Over Furburgers (and Hot Clicks)

In lieu of Furburgers this weekened, we will let Mr. Cooley take over our links by posting his work from Friday's Hot Clicks from SI.com.

And I don't think I've mentioned this, but I met Cooley once and asked him about being called "Captain Chaos," he said he hates it, doesn't know why, but hates it. I think the man needs a new nickname.

(Image courtesy of Chris Cooley's smoking hot wife)