The Redskin Defense is Star-Studded, or So I'm Told

I can't stand it, but the Redskins seem to dominate the news with their absurdity, even in their slowest time of the year. Today's news is that Brian Orakpo and London Fletcher will be joining D******* Hall at the Pro Bowl. Usually I would say 'La dee frickin da!', but instead I am just confused, and not the only one to notice that this doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

For those of you who stomached the Skins this year (or maybe wised up and just read the stats), you know we had the #31 ranked defense in the league, and the #18 offense: that is a horrendous defense and a mediocre offense. Sure, there are no obvious big names on the offense who probably deserve to 'go to the Island', but 3 guys from an awful defense? Are we the most underachieving unit ever and Jim Haslett is the anti-christ? Are the selections on name recognition to blame? Remember, Laron Landry played like a stud too before getting hurt, so could be a 4th selection with a couple more games under his belt.

I actually have an explanation....

You already know my feelings on Hall and I shouldn't need to tell you that his Pro Bowl selection is absurd, so I will skip to Rak and Fletcher. Just look at the Pro Bowl rosters, I count 26 guys who have been selected but are not playing! LFB as a Pro Bowler sounds great, but he has actually only been designated as one of the top 6 middle linebackers in the game. There are maybe 40 starting MLBs in the league, and only maybe half (total guess) play close enough to a full season to be considered for 'the island.' So LFB in the top-6, sure, and really not that impressive, he is better than mediocre, but certainly not being judged as elite.

Along the same line, Rak is gaining recognition as one of the top 9 OLBs in the league, which is slightly more impressive given that there are 64 starting OLBs (not including however many missed significant time with injury).

So 3 players from the 31st ranked D is crazy, but don't look at the Rak and Fletcher selections as the source of the absurdity. You should look at the 3rd guy, who is completely undeserving, but overall, these selections are not as prestigious as they sound, and if you remove Hall, having 2 guys as late additions to the game from an abysmal D is not insane, even if you want to include Landry as being recognized for a fantastic season.

Though the recognition should be mooted, this is a direct reflection of the lack of a supporting cast and the greatest issue that has plagued the Skins for years - going after big names and players at the expense of depth. The Skins should take this to heart, but probably will just chase Carson Palmer and Herschel Walker(!). At least Herschel's comeback would entertain me for what is shaping up to be another rough season DC.

(Image courtesy of goslingphotographyblog.com)

Redskins Season Tickets Offer - Fan Response

DC Sports Bog was all over this, but the video pretty much sums up how everyone feels about the team.

Dan Snyder, if you are reading, just to be clear, this is not just a 1 or 2 year thing, this disinterest and anger has been building ever since you took over this team. For the record, this is the first year since childhood that I will not attend a Redskins game.

Maybe the Skins will always make boatloads of money and always sell almost all of their tickets, but maybe, just maybe, the little protests will add up and affect your bottom-line. You are truly testing our passion.

The Opposite of Michael Vick Against the Redskins

While on the subject of us being right, here's an early DCLS post on why the Skins should have chased Vick 1.5 yrs ago.

Originally posted May 27th, 2009

***

As if Snyder Needs Convincing: The Case for Vick on the 'Skins

Listen, I'm no Redskins apologist. I hate Dan Snyder with all but two fibers in my being (the two that realize that he's better than this guy). I hope Vinny Cerrato chokes on a danish, or better yet, is fired. FedEx is Hell on Earth. Also, I love puppies, and the worst harm I'd ever inflict on one would be to boot a really tiny loud one off a bridge.

But the Redskins had better dig their star-horny claws into Michael Vick and never let go. And not just because the jersey sales will correlate to an illogical 45% rise in FedEx concession prices. It will work for the Redskins on the field and if you remember, that's the point. Several reasons:

1.) The Redskins' Offense needs an ATHLETE. 'Skins fans lament the lack of a #1 receiver and it's hard to disagree. And some think JC17 isn't the answer behind center. But what's really lacking is a guy who can simply make tacklers miss. Vick's presence alone means the other team has to account for him, game plan for him, think about him before the game. If you've made D-Coordinators think that much harder, you've improved your offense that much...harder. What position exactly? We'll get to that....

Imagine the Opposite of This

2.) We've yet to see the Zorn Star work magic with a Shiny New Wand. In 2008, Zorn adjusted his westcoast pass-happy offense to suit his personnel, which is the mark of an intelligent coach. The result was a bland running based game, due to bland running based personnel. Enter insane athlete. Now, Zorn has studied the Wildcat diligently this offseason and admitted the 'Skins don't have the personnel to make it happen. Yet. Why? "Cleveland, with [Josh] Cribbs....probably did the best, but he's got a real acceleration." So we need someone with real acceleration, preferably with QB experience? Hmmm....

I'm not saying Vick should become the new 'Skins QB. Far from it; I think his unique skills are best utilized in various roles at various times. Sometimes that might mean some QB snaps. Mostly though, he needs plays designed for him specifically in some quasi-hybrid tailback role, a la 1920s football. There has never been an athlete like Vick in the NFL - why not make up a position that's never existed?

3.) Vick will be cheap. I know I know, the Redskins are salary cap wizards and yes, there might not be a cap after this year...but the 'Skins are still paying Mark Carrier like $4.3 million per and contract terms will be critical. Vick's market value is going to be around Bear Sterns' right about now - which for those of you who don't read the Wall Avenue Journal means Vick will be getting dick for salary, and for one or two years tops. Low risk (cap room wise)/high reward is the idea here.

4.) Vick will be motivated. There are just plain ruthless murderous sociopaths, and there are ruthless murderous sociopaths with 10-figure debt and the whole world watching their every move. True: you have to be collossally stupid to squander what Vick had circa 2006, and I wouldn't be surprised if he, Portis, Haynesworth and Smoot were caught financing an underground squirrel-fighting ring or something. But he has to have learned from this. Maybe not in that moral, soul-saving way...but in a superficial my-job-and-life-is-on-the-line way, which is good enough for me. Maybe he'll still have the urge to strangle a labradoodle at first sight - but I get the feeling he'll resist this time. He's in survival mode at this point.

5.) Despite pleas from fans, the 'Skins are determined to win now and delay a rebuild. To most logical fans, 14 years of consistent mediocrity with an aging roster is a sure sign that the talent has been maxed out. To Vinny Cerrato and Dan Snyder, it's a never-ending indication that the 'Skins are one player away from winning it all. I'm not saying Vick is that guy. I'm saying given the right circumstances, a healthy year on the offensive line, and basic progress from JC17, a well-utilized Vick could help put up enough points to make the offense respectable again. The 'Skins D and running game remain their strong points, and if healthy could do some postseason damage. It's getting there that's the issue. So as long as we're stuck with a front office and owner playing this game, Vick is worth a look.

6.) The offense needs hope. If there was one thing that defined the Redskins offense in the second half of 2008 - other than three-and-outs - it was the look and feeling of hopelessness. Early in the year the group was unstoppable, and they had the swag. As passes starting slipping through hands, Jansen opened the Sack Gates, and Portis' injuries caught up to him finally, they lost it. And what have they done since the disastrous 2008 finale? Precisely dick. Unless you believe in UFOs, you realize that Devin Thomas is a joke and Malcolm Kelly's knees are made of peanut brittle and there's no such thing as an NFL offense with two tight end weapons. The cavalry isn't coming from those three.

But inject Vick into a locker room with stable vets and leaders and it's an instant spark. Suddenly you have a guy turning heads in practice, adding that 'wow' factor, that extra ingredient that Randel El was supposed to provide but can't, since he is 5' 2" in real life and was never that good. Sometimes that's all it takes for a football team to make it over the hump.

Now Vinny, get on the phone with the Falcons and send next year's 1st, 3rd, and 5th into oblivion and make this happen. Even if Gooddell doesn't reinstate, what do we have to lose? They're just draft picks.

***

 So maybe we had the position thing wrong, and maybe Vick couldn't survive in the Redskin player development wasteland, but he was definitely worth a shot. And apologies to dog lovers, but considering their pasts, I have a harder time rooting for McNabb than I do the Vick resurrection story.

(Image courtesy of www.sportsfanlive.com)

The Thinking Man's Take on the McNabb Contract

A loss like that almost makes you forget that the Skins made a franchise-altering decision by giving Donovan McNabb an extension. But really, this contract holds much greater importance for the franchise than Michael Vick looking like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl.

Unfortunately for us long suffering fans, this decision is an absolutely awful one, and a reflection that past mistakes are continuing. The idiocy behind this decision goes way deeper than money.

First, I want go back to this summer, when the Skins decided to drop Jason Campbell and trade for McNabb. The Skins stubborn refusal to rebuild seemed poised to change with a new GM and Coach, but as we all know, there is something in the water around Ashburn...and by something in the water I mean Dan Snyder's kool-aid.

The Skins were 4-12, low on draft picks and in obvious of an absolute teardown. Instead? The team decided to trade a 2nd and what I believe will be a 4th round pick for a 33 year-old quarterback who ranked as very mediocre last year. By Football Outsiders metrics, in 2009, McNabb ranked 20th on a per play basis and 16th in total production. By the less telling quarterback rating, McNabb ranked 12th last year. You can sell the leadership angle all you want, but 33 years old and mediocre with declining production is not a good idea. There is no rejuvenation machine.

Meanwhile, the Skins already had a mediocre guy in JC. A 28 year old who in 2009 was 25th on a per play basis, 20th in total production, and 15th in QB rating. Campbell's 2009 numbers are worse than McNabb's, but he was playing with one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. If you want to bring up McNabb's leadership, then you have to be open to the counter that Campbell might have more growth left in him than the average 28 year old QB, as someone whose literally had to learn a different offense for every of his football life since his freshman year at Auburn. I could go into some guestimating that Campbell and McNabb's respective performances last year were not very different, while Campbell was/is cheaper and younger.

Fortunately, Football Outsiders decided to tackle this very subject the day before the McNabb deal was signed. For those of you without Insider, FO uses 'similarity scores' to find comparable players, and Campbell's 2007-2009 stretch shows a lot of players, "on the verge of something great, or at least prepared for multiyear stretches with high levels of performance." Meanwhile, McNabb's 2007-2009 compares to a bunch of guys who, "were about to see serious downturns in starting time and overall production." These are not 100% predictive measures, but strong indicators. As FO states, "Is McNabb headed for a similar downturn? Prorated to a 16-game schedule, his 2010 stats certainly indicate it." Yeah, we noticed. But wait, there's more,

"The Redskins may have wished for the McNabb who came of age a decade ago, but again, it could be argued that they already had that player and let him go. When running similarity scores for McNabb's three-year period from 2002 through 2004 -- you know, the one that included three conference championships and ended in a Super Bowl -- the comparisons are even more interesting. Behind the Steve McNair of 2001, the second-closest comparison sticks out like a sore thumb: Jason Campbell, 2009."  

Wow. It would have been nice to bring this to our attention 8 months ago. You get the impression though that FO's article could have been planted on Snyder's desk this Spring and it wouldn't have made a smidgen of difference.

This is a prime example of the biggest problem with the Redskins in the Snyder era, and that is a refusal to rebuild with youth. It doesn't get more clear cut than the veteran McNabb blocking a younger Campbell. So Campbell may have been slightly worse, but to give up 2 high draft picks and take a 33 year old over a 28 year old is outrageous for a 4-12 team.

That is why this contract's atrocity goes beyond the money. Furthermore, the one thing the the Redskins have done well over the years is manage the salary cap. This team has never really been inhibited in the ability to sign someone to a contract, and continually throws money around. The problem with this team has never been the execution in signing these guys, but rather the plan in going after veterans at the expense of youth and rebuilding. The money the Skins gave McNabb is indeed outrageously high for a player of his caliber, but it doesn't matter.

What does matter is that we are committing to McNabb. I know the Skins have an out after this season, but you are kidding yourself if you think McNabb isn't going to be the starting Redskin QB for at least next season. As FO concludes,

"This situation may not affect the Redskins in the long term; McNabb is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2010 season is done, and he may take his talents elsewhere in the offseason. But if the Redskins actually do succeed in signing McNabb to a long-term deal, past and present trends indicate that it could be a dangerous risk ... and that Campbell may have been the smarter choice all along."

Even worse than being saddled with a bad QB when we had a better and cheaper option in-house, is what this deal shows about the franchise direction: the Redskins are again refusing to admit a mistake and rebuild. We never should have expected otherwise, as Jamie Mottram of MisterIrrelevant.com and Jack Kogod pointed out, 'The McNabb contract was the inevitable conclusion of the McNabb trade.' Admitting a mistake is difficult, especially in an organization with a high turnover rate, but the trade is a sunk cost and this floundering team should cut its losses.

Not only is the rebuild delayed (I know, any chance of a rebuild under Snyder, ever, is optimistic), but as long as McNabb is the QB of this team, we will not be good; the Monday night loss underscored the state of the franchise. What this contract really means is that the next few years will continue to be excruciating if we are not already numb.

(Campbell and McNabb image couresty of inewscatcher.com and McNabb image courtesy of bleacherreport.com)

Week 2: Texans 30 - Redskins 27: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is finally upon us! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking has finally commenced. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the second game of the season:

31, 9, 11, 16, 25, 23. I only wish those were the Redskin point-scoring totals of our last 6 games. Those are actually the rankings of the Redskins special teams from 2004-2009, the years Danny Smith has been in charge. Let me throw another number at you: 9. That's the Skins special teams ranking in the year before he arrived. How does Danny Smith still have a job?!? Just because he seems so peppy, but the special teams have only gotten worse since he arrived, and generally been awful. Instead of slowly bleeding us to death, we got stabbed in the heart. I know that the blocked FG was not the only play to cost us the game, but seriously, enough is enough. Dan Snyder, in his infinite wealth, could lure just about any guy he wants, but sticks with Danny freaking Smith, astounding.

• Double-move and D******* Hall were victimized pretty equally today. Kevin Walter wrecked double-move.
• Rak has to do more than that. I know they doubled him quite a bit, but other than the one sack he seemed pretty quiet to me. The stats show a couple QB hits, a TFL, and the one pass he tipped, but he wasn't the constant terror we need.
• Laron Landry had a modest 11 tackles, but still had a great game. I only see 1 sack in the stats, but thought he had 2. I noted that he did missed plugging a hole on one of Foster's better runs, but made a lot of important tackles and has all over Schaub.
• The corpse of Joey Galloway ghosted downfield on that 62 yard reception and the oh-so-slight McNabb overthrow. That is the good, but 3 catches in 7 targets is not, and those 4 incompletions were among only 10 thrown by McNabb.
  
• I was in Portis' corner, but this has to get better. We win that game if we can run down the clock with a few first downs on the ground.
  
• Larry Johnson really thinks he can bounce backward and then around the entire defense?
  
• I thought we all agreed McNabb wouldn't throw to Mike Sellers anymore.
• I am still not a big McNabb believer, and he missed a few throws today, but Campbell never makes any of those long throws.
• On the game-deciding 4th down play, how about we double team the best WR in the league with the best guys we've got instead of leaving the short white guy who can't cover on him. I realize Phillip Buchanon should have been there, but why is our #3 corner on Andre Johnson!
  
• Free safety is a major area of concern. Doughty and Horton are not good enough.
• Trent Williams better be okay. I was surprised the Texans didn't switch Mario Williams to going against Heyer on the left side on every play after the injury.
  
• Ovie in this Capital One commercial definitely is helping me stay sane:

• The TV show Airwolf, was on when I immediately clicked off the game, and was actually the primary reason I didn't jump off of my balcony. One hilariously bad thrill ride. I'd never heard of it, but immediately turned it on after reading the description in my TV guide, "The better of two helicopter shows (1984)." There were multiple helicopter shows in 1984?
  
• Looking at the schedule ahead and considering what I've seen from 2 weeks of football, I have the Skins going 9-7 right now. We are also still in first place, and St. Louis next week should be the cure for what ails.

(Image courtesy of Hogs Haven)

Redskins 2011 and Beyond Truths

So I left a not-so-insignificant piece out of my last post on how the Skins should only be favored to win a wild card spot, but are in good position to win the NFC East. That not-so-teeny tiny piece is that the Skins have once again sacrificed all future gains for short term glory, or in our case, short term decency. The season hasn't even started, but I can't help but look further down the road, particularly as someone who panned the McNabb trade. I refer you once again to the Football Outsiders preview:

"This year’s Redskins have an alarming number of players who are about to simultaneously grow old, and that’s not even counting lunatic acquisitions like Galloway. McNabb, Portis, Johnson, Parker, Santana Moss, Rabach, Philip Daniels, and London Fletcher are all at or approaching the downside of their careers, with Andre Carter and Derrick Dockery not far behind them. There are few obvious successors to these key players on the roster, and with training camp bloated with Galloway and Holliday types, it will be hard for the team to find and develop quality replacements. In a few years, Shanahan will be fired, McNabb will return to Philadelphia to retire with the Eagles, and Snyder will stand next to Urban Meyer heralding the start of another new era.

There are two sad elements to the Redskins plight. The first is that some in the Redskins organization will feel vindicated when the team loses in the second round of the playoffs. Snyder and others will convince themselves that they made all the right moves. There will be a lot of backslapping for a very small accomplishment. And of course, that will only encourage Snyder and company to climb back on the horse. The second is that so many of the Redskins problems are obvious and avoidable. Anyone who looks carefully at the roster can see long-term disaster brewing, and it doesn’t take much imagination to find healthier alternatives to the path the Redskins chose. The Redskins could have Jake Delhomme or Derek Anderson as their starting quarterback, with second-round pick Jimmy Clausen waiting in the wings. Or, they could have given Campbell another year, used their second-round pick on a defensive playmaker like Sergio Kindle, and let their defense win a few games while Shanahan made tough decisions on offense. Heck, they could have pulled the trigger on the McNabb deal but held off on all of the Parker-Johnson-Galloway nonsense, increasing their odds of finding a great young back or receiver who will improve as McNabb fades. The Redskins just can’t do that. They keep seeking short-term dividends that aren’t worth the long-range consequences.

Of course, that’s exactly the kind of trade-off addicts make. In March, it looked like Allen and Shanahan could make a difference. Now, they’re stuck in the same web that snared Gibbs, Schottenheimer, Spurrier, and Zorn. Snyder drags good football people down with him. This year, the high will last past August, but the crash will come before February. And next year’s hangover will be as bad — or worse — than the last ten."

The scene in Adams Morgan Tonight/Metaphor for the Future of the Redskins Future

Let's skip ahead to what our roster will look like in 3+ years, and remember that we have the worst group of under-25 year old talent in the NFL. WARNING: Hide the women and children.
On offense we have:
QB: Zippo, not even a developmental guy. Nice to know we got rid of Chase Daniel, who is one of FO's top prospects...
RB: Nada
WR: Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly (syke!)
OL: Trent Williams, old Jammal Brown
TE: Cooley and Fred Davis
Overall, this is pathetic, we need another couple O-linemen, a QB, and a WR who is healthy and can beat out a 39 year old. Other than that, doing swell.

On defense:
DL: Golston, Carriker (maybe)
LB: Orakpo, Rocky, and maybe HB Blades.
CB: D******* Hall (I don't see double-move sticking around this long). You know who is missing here? FO's #5 prospect, Justin Tryon.
S: Landry (hard to count, but could be a new man in the box this year, although his missed tackle on the huuuge LDT run says otherwise), Kareem Moore
Overall, there are some bodies here, but no cornerstones except for Rak.

Next year's draft doesn't offer a ton of hope, as we already missing our 3rd and 4th round picks. Good thing I only put a down payment on tickets for this year's Super Bowl....

(Image courtesy of deadspin.com and my friend's cell phone)

Spilling Snyder's Kool-Aid - Skins Worst Young Team in NFL

I have been in a state of confusion since Matt Capps was the winning pitcher in an All-Star game, and the NL won the midsummer classic despite their horribly chosen roster (just wait 2 years from now when you'll see that and say 'Matt Capps was an All-Star?'). Then Football Outsiders came and threw a nice glass of ice water in my my face with their article on ESPN.com ranking all NFL teams in terms of their under-25 year old talent. For those of you without Insider Access, well firstly you should get it, but I probably don't have to tell you that the Redskins finished dead last at #32.....shocker.... In Bill Barnwell's words,

"Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan have inherited a wasteland from Vinny Cerrato, who used his draft picks to acquire "has-beens" and "never-weres." As a result, the Redskins only have four "young" starters, and two of them (wideout Devin Thomas and safety LaRon Landry) have been professional flops. Outside linebacker Brian Orakpo was extremely effective last year, and rookie tackle Trent Williams should start on the left side from Day One. The only notable young players behind them are tight end Fred Davis and backup linebacker H.B. Blades."

But we got Orakpo still right? The good news is that FO also released their list of top-25 prospects, which only ranks players that meet the following criteria:
• Be in the second, third or fourth year of their pro career
• Have been drafted in Rounds 3 to 7 or signed as an undrafted free agent
• Have started fewer than five career games in the NFL
• Still on their rookie contract

Sure enough, Justin Tryon is #5, as in the 5th best 'prospect', wow. In FO's words,

"...While DeAngelo Hall allows countless completions and LaRon Landry overruns play after play, the team unearthed a bona fide starting corner in the fourth round of the 2008 draft. Tryon only started two games during his second year in the league, but he played like he belonged in the Millionaires' Club. According to the Football Outsiders game charting project, Tryon allowed 5.8 adjusted yards per attempt, nearly a half-yard better than any other Redskins corner. Despite spending time in the slot, Tryon didn't allow receivers to get open deep; passes at him were only thrown an average of 7.8 yards away from the line of scrimmage, the lowest figure -- by far -- among Redskins corners. He took Fred Smoot's job away during the year, and while he has to beat out Phillip Buchanon for the nickel job in camp (spoiler: he will), he may have Carlos Rogers' starting job in his back pocket by the end of the season."

Too bad Tryon is 26 and doesn't count in FO's team rankings....That said, I am not sure how much stock to put into current under-25 talent as a predictor of future success. The clearest example is the San Diego Chargers, who are considered to have an extremely desirable roster (particularly by FO's metrics), but come in at #31 in this list thanks to trading away a few recent draft picks. I think the problem is that we are drawing an arbitrary line at age 25, and overlooking the roster turnover in the NFL. The NY Jets are another team that seems to be building for sustained success, but they only came in at #23, partly because Nick Mangold and D'Brickashaw Ferguson just miss the age cutoff in this relatively absurd exercise. The article is simply titled 'Organizational Rankings', which makes this list appear to be something much more significant than it is, and another reason to hate the piece despite my love of FO.

The bottom line is that I don't need some metrics to tell me that the Skins suck, I know we suck and need to do some serious building (not rebuilding, because Snyderrato never built anything). Having the Redskins at the bottom of the 'Organizational Rankings' is no surprise and I know our lack of young talent is a major issue, but showing me that the Skins suck is easy, there are millions of ways to do that.

(Image courtesy of realredskins.com)

What Is Our LeBron Equivelant?

LeBron's a douche.

See, doesn't that feel good? Say it out loud. One, two, three, maybe even four times.

I don't know what it is about LeBron. Maybe it's because he beat the Wizards in three consecutive playoff series, or that he complains more than my little sister when it's her time of the month, or that he created his own three-step "crab dribble" which was eventually adopted by the NBA and put into its rulebook. You know, just for him.

It could be any one of those things but in all likelihood it's every one of them, combined with the self-fellating ego-maniacal spectacle that was last night's traitorous announcement to the world that "The Chosen One" would be taking his talents to South Beach.

Before he made his announcement I didn't really care what team he'd select. I was so LeBronned out after a week of LeBronning by ESPN that I just couldn't take it anymore.

But of course I watched. I mean, everyone and their infant baby watched, and I'm sure the ratings for the announcement were sky high. And when he announced he was leaving Cleveland, doing so in that fashion, on prime time national television and dragging "The Decision" out like it was a goddamn "American Idol" episode starring Jim Gray as Ryan Seacrest, it struck a cord in me.

D.C. is a depressing sports town. We've gone over its merits before. But Cleveland? They haven't won a title since the Browns brought home the bacon in 1964. That's unheard of.

And to have their hearts and souls ripped out from them by this 25 year old arrogant prick wearing a picnic table button down shirt because he wanted to go play with his buddies in Miami - which effectively ruined his legacy - was just too much to take.

It got me thinking: what would be our equivalent to what LeBron did to Cleveland fans last night? Nothing really compares, but I have some ideas.

• John Wall demands a trade before the season starts, holding the Wizards hostage and refusing to show up to practices. Contract be damned! The kicker: he's demanding to be traded to Miami.
• The year is 2016. Stephen Strasburg has won two straight MVP's and is easily the best pitcher in the land. He spends his free agent summer being courted by every team out there, but anyone who knows anything can tell you that there are really on three options: staying with the Nationals, signing with the Yankees, signing with the Red Sox. Knowing full well the Lerners aren't stupid enough to fork over the kind of dough that Boston and New York are glad to (ballpark estimate ~ 10 years $790 million), he could put Nats fans out of their misery early by making his priorities clear. Instead, he inspires hope, says it's not about the money, only to bail at the last second in a nationally televised one-hour special devoted to him for a star-studded team that can carry him to the promise land. What a nightmare.
• Alex Ovechkin demands a trade, but only two teams make his list: the Flyers and the Penguins. And he does so immediately after we win a Stanley Cup, and then leads the team he's traded to to five consecutive Stanley Cups.
• Daniel Snyder murders a small child for complaining about the price of hot dogs at Fedex Field and gets away with it by framing John Riggins, who spends the rest of his life in prison paying for a crime he didn't commit. Are you still with me, or did I take it too far?
• Joe Gibbs comes out of retirement to sign a life-time contract with the Dallas Cowboys. If you didn't think it could get worse, it does. After winning several championships with the Cowboys, he withdraws from the Hall of Fame completely, only to get nominated a few years later as coach of the Dallas Cowboys. He is elected first ballot, and they erect a shrine of Joe Gibbs in all his Cowboys glory.

Ever been kicked really hard in the nuts? That's what those bizarre hypothetical scenarios feel like. I can't even imagine how Clevelanders feel this morning. I'm assuming 90% of the workforce called in sick. Or just angry.

ESPN Knows DC is The Most Depressing Sports City

I already posted on this subject on Bullets Forever, but ESPN released their Ultimate Team Standings for 2010 a few days ago and the results are about as nice as today's 106-degree weather for DC. For those who haven't heard of these 'Standings' before, ESPN ranks every pro franchise across the four major American sports yearly, 1-122, by using using a nationwide survey to determine aspects of a franchise such as 'affordability', 'fan relations' and 'winning titles'.

I didn't notice this article posted online before receiving my ESPN The Magazine, and like any DC sports fan, had the following reactions when I saw the Standings mentioned on the cover:

• I know my teams suck, and don't need rankings to tell me they suck
• Because my teams suck, I have no desire to skip to the rankings

To top it off, once I got to the rankings, I automatically scanned downward to work from the bottom-up to find the DMV teams. You know your teams suck when you start from the bottom and it didn't take long to find our boys......the Nationals, Orioles, Redskins, and Wizards come in at #s 94, 102, 105, and 120......out of 122 teams! Fortunately, the Caps are #11, and as we all already know, the 1 shining light in the DMV these days.

On the surface, nothing really surprised me except that the Wizards are below the Redskins. But reflecting on having 4 of our 5 teams be in the bottom 28 made me realize how jaded I have become. Seriously, I know we have Strasburg, and used to have Matt Wieters and Fat Albert Haynesworth (nope, still pissing me off, nevermind), but all of these teams are depressingly bad and have no championship in site. I already figured we are the worst sports city at this point when you consider the number of awful teams, and this ranking only furthers the notion.

What about Cleveland or Atlanta you say? Ha! The only city on the list to rival DC is actually NYC. The Knicks, Mets, Rangers, Giants, and Yankees, and Jets finished at 119, 107, 104, , 66, 62, and 50. I realize that the Caps pull our average ranking above that of any NYC combo, but our bottom 4 is worse, and the only reason NYC teams are so low is because of 'affordability'. Sure, I prefer that my team is affordable, but winning trumps everything and the Giants and Yankees have recent titles, and the Rangers won one about the same time as the last major DMV sports team. Making things worse is that the 'shining light of DC', the Caps, gave the DMV a collective kick in the balls by losing in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Maybe Shanahan turns things around in Ashburn, maybe Leonsis can do for the Wizards what he did for the Caps, maybe Pitching Jesus can carry the Nats, and maybe the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays will cease to exist for the sake of the Orioles. For now though, there can't even be much of a debate that we are the most depressed sports city in the country.

(Images courtesy of deadspin.com and ryanberding.com)

Dan Snyder Never Ceases to Hurt Me

“I learned – and I think this has to do with Joe Gibbs – the most important thing for me personally is to have a head coach who is extremely competent, that’s what I’ve got with Mike. It creates an opportunity for me to be extremely hands off and not have to worry. I’m just enjoying myself. It’s been a lot of fun for me. It’s been effortless on my part."

-Dan Snyder to Alex Marvez of foxsports.com

Unbelievable, he is just full of surprises.............I don't even know where to begin..................I mean, is he serious?!? This idiot only realizes now that after seeking out the best professionals to improve your extremely valuable entity, you should just let them do their jobs and not meddle?!? Jim Zorn was maybe in a little over his head, but Joe Gibbs and Marty Schottenheimer!!! Clearly those guys needed your complete and utter lack of football experience. I can just see how the creator of 'Marty-ball' and 'Camp Schottenheimer' would step back and say, 'You know what, I think maybe I need to change my ways; we need some outside perspective from someone who has never played, coached, analyzed, or even written about the game, and this Snyder guy really has a fresh take.' 11 years! I want the last 11 years of my football life back!

Lavar Arrington and Chad Dukes were on this today, and I think they put it best by saying this is akin to having a broken air conditioner, then hiring a repair man to fix the issue, but instead of relaxing and letting the repair guy work, you completely stress over the repair because you decide to step in and do it yourself.

In a bit of fairness, Lavar made a great point that Snyder is an entrepreneur, and as anyone who has worked for or been an entrepreneur knows, there are a lot of control issues in running a business. More specifically, many entrepreneurs are complete control freaks, and Snyder is no different. As Lavar also noted, that does not mean being controlling in every situation is right, but you can at least understand Snyder's perspective a little bit. That said, it's been 11 years of constant public derision and a clear lack of success on the field; he clearly should have gotten the message and changed his ways awhile ago.

The good news is that Dan Snyder finally appears to be hands-off with the Skins front office. He may still be more involved than most people would like, but he appears to have learned something from these loooooong 11 years. Rehashing the incompetence makes me absurdly angry and frustrated, but maybe, just maybe, we really have reached a turning point. Now it's just up to Shanahan.......

(Image courtesy of misterirrelevant.com)

Redskins Draft Recap

The options: Trent Williams (OL), Russell Okung (OT), Eric Berry (S), Jimmy Claussen (QB)
Drafted: Trent Williams #4. Berry went #5 to the Chiefs, Okung #6 to the Seahawks, and Claussen #48 to the Panthers.

The trend-starting hug

It appears that the Skins didn't want to invest heavily in a QB who wasn't Sam Bradford. Given the slides of Claussen and Colt McCoy, we could have easily traded up for 1 of them. I think the Eric Berry interest was a smokescreen to try to entice someone to trade for our pick. There were a few O-linemen who graded out as similar, so no team was likely to trade up for Okung, Bulaga, or Williams. Berry, however, was the unique player in that spot who some team may have loved so much that they'd make the rare top-10 draft pick trade.

I think a team should almost always take the best player available because football is the ultimate team sport, and I think Eric Berry is Ed Reed with speed. Leaving metrics aside, the best safeties in the NFL have had extremely productive college careers and fell to the later portion of the first round due to a perceived lack of athleticism and safety not being a premium position. This group includes Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders, and Brandon Meriweather, which is a list of some, if not all, of the best safeties in the league. Eric Berry was extremely decorated and productive at Tennessee, but also has incredible measurable athleticism and was tutored by an NFL defensive guru. I have trouble seeing him fail, and I have trouble seeing him not become a perennial all-pro. That said, there is always uncertainty about whether a player will succeed, OT is such an incredible need for the Skins, and Williams not a reach, so I have no problem with the pick.

My other notes:

• I'm glad we took the 1st OT, just because it proves that we got our #1 rated OT.
• 'Silverback' sounds awesome, but for a black man to promote his nickname as a type of monkey is probably not the best idea. I think this would be like a white guy nicknaming himself 'saltine'.
• The hug Williams gave Goodell started a trend, which was cool and then immediately weird when everyone else started hugging the commish too. I like that our guy started the hug.
• Gerald McCoy crying as he was getting announced as the 3rd pick is an example of why drafts can be so awesome. Just a reminder that this is the culmination of a lot of blood, sweat, and tears for these guys.
• Wrist game! I rewound my tivo to examine Gerald McCoy's watch (and bracelet) at least 3 times, but was not privy to these other fine images of the new rich's wristwear. When I grow up, I want to be an NFL first round pick. Here is our man Trent Williams' choice of accessories:   If athleticism fails, Trent can always try to literally blind his opponents with wrist game

• Jimmy Claussen sliding sounds like it might not have happened if Vinny Cerrato was calling the shots. He still is on the payroll at Redskins Park, but thankfully wasn't in the war room.
  
• Let's not give the Skins adding extra picks and finishing with 6 draftees. 3 of those guys are 7th rounders and unlikely to make the team this year or ever play a down in the NFL.
• The Skins, however, should not be criticized for only having 4 picks entering the draft, as Jeremy Jarmon is part of this draft class. Adam Carriker should also be considered part of our haul. Mr. I has a nice article with our real 'draft class'.
  
• I would much rather have Colt McCoy, Jason Campbell, and a 4th round pick next year than Donovan McNabb.
• I would much rather have a 4th rounder for Jason Campbell than nothing at all!
• I think the Bucs, Texans, Jets, and Ravens had the best drafts.
• I really like the 3 day format, much easier for those of us who want to watch all 7 rounds.
• I have too much free time.
  

(Images courtesy of gambling911.com and Gerald McCoy's twitter account)

Redskins Draft Hindsight - What Almost Was

With the NFL draft tonight, I thought the best way to preview a team with few draft picks is to go back and see how the Skins did with the picks they had over the past 3 years. Specifically, I want to examine how the guys we picked with our highest picks performed compared to some of the guys who also piqued the Redskins' interest. I understand that one can go back and cherry-pick the success stories, but I want to make this realistic and thus only consider players that would have been 'reasonable' picks. I also realize that the guy running the show for the past 3 years is now just on the ESPN show, so past record should not be any indication toward predicting the future. The list of 'almost Skins' draftees is generated solely by my memory and based only off of rumors and reports, so there is obviously no telling how close to drafting these players the Skins came and maybe the rumors were just smokescreens. Then again, the idea of Snyderrato pulling off smokescreens is comical.

2007 The options: Laron Landry (S), Jamaal Anderson (DE), and Amobi Okoye (DT)
Drafted: Landry #6 overall (which gives the beefcake the distinction of being the last guy drafted before Adrian Peterson). Anderson and Okoye were selected 8th and 10th overall, respectively.

Oh right, we passed on him....

As bad as Landry was last season, he was not a horrible player and still exhibits potential, although he has likely peaked as a body builder. So did we make the right pick amongst those 3 players? Anderson, in the words of the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, "has bust written all over him", and that was before another bad season that saw him move from DE to DT. Anderson's career sack total is 2.5, and the track record for guys with that few sacks in their first 3 seasons suddenly becoming good pass rushers is atrocious. FO also writes on an espn.com Insider article that, "while he's got competition from JaMarcus Russell and Buster Davis, it appears that Anderson may very well become the first player selected in the opening round of the 2007 NFL draft to be released. The Skins definitely made the right move avoiding this disaster.

Okoye is a bit more difficult to evaluate thanks to his age. Although Okoye was not productive by FO's metrics going into last year, with FO saying Okoye, "has yet to show any ability to command a double-team and makes few plays himself." Okoye is still only 22, so there is still time for development, but last season has not changed the perception that he is merely an okay player, and not a difference-maker. As much as I like his upside, Landry at least gave the Skins some good performances in his first and second seasons, leading FO to proclaim he "looks solid going forward." I know last year was an awful one for Landry, but I still think the Skins made the right pick here.

2008 The options: Phillip Merling (DE), Jeff Otah (OT), Devin Thomas (WR), Jordy Nelson (WR), Fred Davis (TE), Malcolm Kelly (WR)
Drafted: Thomas #34, Davis #48, and Kelly #51. The Skins original pick was #21, and Otah went #19, Merling #32, and Nelson #36.

This is a much more difficult group to analyze because the Skins moved down in the draft, and bringing trade options into the analysis opens up a wealth of possibilities and permutations. That said, it actually looks like we did okay, but just okay. Otah was picked before our selection, so would have required us to trade up to get him and was thus virtually improbable to get. That said, he was the starting RT as part of a great Panther line in 2008, and an okay Panther line in 2009; he clearly could have been a great pick for the Skins.

Merling was pretty bad in 2008 by FO's metrics and managed only 2.5 sacks in 2009 despite being a starting DE. Merling has 'bust' written all over him.

Jordy Nelson seemed primed for a breakout year on a strong Packer offense in 2009 after a solid rookie campaign, but managed to have a sophomore slump despite strong metrics. He has been more productive than either Thomas or Kelly over the course of 2 seasons, but last year is what should really count, and Thomas and Kelly were as good by raw stats last year, and better when you consider the awful Redskin offense. Thomas and Kelly had serious issues getting up to speed in their first season, and the metrics didn't love them last year, but they are both comparable to Nelson at this point, although I am willing to bet that FO will pin Nelson as a breakout player for 2010 thanks to strong metrics in limited opportunity. Fred Davis has to be considered the best player of this receiver group, so that is not even worth a discussion. Of the 4 receivers considered plus Merling, the Skins picked the best of the bunch and avoided the worst, with spots 2-4 TBD based on the next couple years. Amongst the options considered, the Skins appear to have made the right moves.

My problem with this draft, however, stems from a couple of guys we didn't consider but were at the same positions. Sam Baker (OT) ended up going #21 to Atlanta, with the Skins original pick. Despite injury problems, Baker was considered to be very good in his rookie season, and was again part of a good Falcon line in 2009. It is very possible the Skins could have swapped Baker for Thomas and Kelly, which is a trade I can only dream about now. The other big miss was DeSean Jackson, who we didn't consider because he is similar to Santana Moss and we wanted a bigger receiver. Jackson is now terrorizing the NFL returning kicks and catching passes, and went #49, so we actually passed on him twice, amazing. How do NFL GMs consistently screw up the idea that drafting the best player available is usually the best way to go? Because of these misses, this draft currently sits in the FAIL column, although if Thomas or Kelly really proves that they are a legit starting WR in this league and Davis continues to develop, that could change.

2009
The options: Brian Orakpo (DE), Michael Oher (OT), Mark Sanchez (QB)
Drafted: Orakpo #13. Sanchez #5 and Oher #23.

Rak gets the bigger picture

The Skins were bit more cryptic about what they wanted to do with this pick other than use it to draft 'the Sanchize'. Everette Brown and Ray Maualuga were also mentioned, but both ended up being 2nd round picks. Rak is clearly a great player and cornerstone of the franchise and makes this decision a smashing success, so I will keep this brief.

Sanchez is being called a success already, but he ranked 38th, 37th, 35th, and 35th in FO's 4 key metrics last year, so was actually pretty awful behind an excellent offensive line. QBs are hard to predict, but the metrics didn't like him out of college, and I'm still not sold he will even be as good as JC. I also hated him all along, so there's that too.

Oher was an anchor on the #4 OL in the NFL by FO's metrics, and by consensus had an excellent rookie season. His speech immediately after being drafted was also my favorite draft moment of all time, when he said 'I don't care where I got picked, I'm ready to get started' (have never been able to find youtube of this). Rak still looks like the better pick after one year, with my only wish being then and now that the Skins somehow traded into the back of the 1st round to snare Oher in addition to Rak.

The big question mark for me is why we didn't consider Brian Cushing if we intended to switch Rak to OLB all along? Cushing went one pick after Rak and was rightfully named the defensive ROY. Now that we are switching to a 3-4, I think Rak could still have a brighter future than Cushing, but the idiocy of not picking Cushing at the time is astounding. Rak playing at DE full time could be something special, or even at 3-4 OLB, but not the 4-3 OLB for which he was drafted. If not for the defensive system change, it is hard to argue that Cushing would not have been the better pick as long as Rak stays at OLB.

Tonight? I hope we stay put and take our #1 OT, who is likely Okung. I trust Shanahan in drafting linemen, as he took Ryan Clady a couple years ago, so will not panic if the pick is Trent Williams or another OT. The ideal situation would be sliding back a couple spots and still taking the first OT, but we might miss our first choice and we need to hit on an OT with this pick.

(Facts and stats courtesy of Football Outsiders, espn.com, and wikipedia. Images courtesy of nbcsportsmedia1.msnbc.com, washingtonpost.com, and espn.com )

Say It With Me: Donovan McNabb is the Washington Redskins' Newest Starting Quarterback

I can only assume he is starting, because why else would you give up a 2nd round pick AND a third or fourth round pick next year during a "rebuild" unless you thought you were getting a starter? Right?

Regardless, we're all gonna have to get used to loving supporting a guy we've been programmed to hate for the last 11 years. Although, I've hated him less and less over the last few as my fear of him has decreased. Early in his career, he tore the 'Skins to shreds on the ground. In his prime a few years ago, he just tore everyone to shreds. The last few years, he's only been able to tear the grass to shreds, specifically those patches 10 yards behind Kevin Curtis.

Exact scientific rendering of what McNabb will look like in a 'Skins uni. Get used to it.

My brain is just about ready to explode with confusion. My gut reaction is that this is horrible, so I'll just go with that. I mean, haven't we seen this movie before? Overpaying (in the form of undervalued draft picks, which the Eagles are now assuredly going to turn into perennial All-Pros) for the washed-up vet? The former Pro Bowler who will never again be an All-Pro after donning the curse that is the B&G jersey? And what the hell, Shannahan and Allen!?!?!?!? I thought you were supposed to be DIFFERENT! It's like there's something in the water in Ashburn that turns every formerly successful NFL coach into some variation of a Snyder-esque doofus. This Campbell undermining and acquiring of declining stars is just Cerrato 2.0.

Judging by either conventional stats or the metrics, McNabb was barely better than Campbell last season - and McNabb actually had an offensive line and some explosive receivers to work with. Numbers aside, he's never been known to have the intangibles of a leader. For some reason, every Eagles fan seemed to hate him. Then again, Eagles fans are dumb.

He does have a winning record in his career, and he is automatically the best QB the 'Skins have had since '99 Brad Johnson, and he knows the WCO and....HEY STOP IT FALSE OPTIMISM! YOUR SORCERY WILL NOT WORK ON ME!

Anyways the best part of the trade is this signals the end of the flirtations with Notre Dame QB Jimmy Claussen and the increased likelihood we'll draft much needed OT stud Russel Okung with the #4 pick. I'd rather root for McNabb for a minute than Claussen ever. The worst part is that poor Rex Grossman just lost his best chance at a starting position for the rest of his life. That makes me sad.

Anyways, bye bye Campbell. I will be rooting for you wherever you land, so that you can stick it to the idiot haters.

UPDATE: Just posted on my facebook wall from the one Eagles fan I am "friends" with: "Enjoy Donovan." So, yeah.

UPDATE 2: Just got this e-mail from another Eagles fan friend: "Hope you enjoy our washed-up waste of money choke artist QB." Safe to say Philly consensus is they come out ahead on this one, no?

Glad We Got Rid of THAT Guy

Redskins Insider had a report today that the former bane of Redskin fan existence, Vinny Cerrato, is a big fan of Jimmy Clausen, aka the guy we should not be drafting with the #4 pick. Whew! Good thing we don't have to worry about him anymore, huh? Our draft preview(s) will be posted in the near future, but every Skins fan who has any clue realizes we need to draft an offensive lineman with our top pick unless Bo Jackson's Tecmo Bowl character is suddenly made draft-eligible and slips to #4. We have a QB who is at least mediocre, but an absolute abomination of an offensive line that is at least 2 good players away from being competent. Until we get these 2 or more o-linemen, anyone we put behind center, except maybe Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson as a running QB, wouldn't have a chance.

Which leads to our draft pick, where maybe Sam Bradford, who is top QB prospect in the draft for at least the past 2 years, slips to #4. I still think it's a bad move drafting him because he will be eviscerated behind 'Stephen Heyer's untapped ability', which will possibly ruin his development, let alone have any chance to succeed anytime soon. Even worse would be reaching for a QB with a lot of question marks in Jimmy Claussen at #4. We should draft offensive linemen with our first two picks, it's that simple.

Given that Clausen hasn't been entirely ruled-out as our guy at #4, Vinny's comments still give me the shakes, but at least make me realize that I'd feel much worse if Vinny was still here. Until the current regime does something stupid (d'oh!), I will give them the benefit of the doubt, but that 'benefit' will cease to exist if we draft Jimmy Clausen per Vinny's 'expert opinion'.

(Image courtesy of i122.photobucket.com)

Redskins Sign the Worst RB in the NFL, and Not the Cool LJ

I thought I new era was upon us when the Skins didn't throw money and draft picks at Julius Peppers and Darren Sproles, and then go after an overvalued QB in the draft. Instead, we actually let a free agent leave Ashburn without a contract for wanting too much money and signed a giant man who fits a need at Nose Tackle and whose last name kind of looks like 'I'm-a-eat-u' (Kemoeatu). Even better, Sam Bradford's ascension to likely #1 pick means the Skins are almost forced to draft an OT (cough, or seriously reach for Claussen, cough).

All was well and good until we signed Larry Johnson. No, not the cool one from the Grandmama commercials:

But the over-the-hill RB who is a douchebag. Sure, he has a big name, but Herm Edwards destroyed him by overusing him in KC. Unfortunately for RBs, there is no fountain of youth, and the crappy LJ is even worse than most people realize. How bad? By Football Outsiders' metrics, he was the 2nd worst RB in the league last year! He was 64th out of 65 RBs with 100+ carries. On the bright side, he was the the 97th best pass-catching RB, although he was really only ahead of a few fullbacks. So instead of following the seemingly smart plan used by the Eagles, Chargers, and few other teams of taking a young RB to groom and split carries, we basically signed a locker room cancer who might be the worst at his position in the league. Even worse, we just gave him a lot of money and more than 1 year!

If we draft Claussen, we just reclaim our offseason champs title.

(Image courtesy of sportsbybrooks.com)

The Offseason Dynasty: Will the Stupidity Continue?

Let me start by saying that I am not totally opposed to the Redskin strategy of throwing money at free agents. I realize that this has only brought us a decade of mediocrity, but I think that signing Albert Haynesworth, who is the best defensive player in football, is a good move. I think our problems stem from undervaluing draft picks, having constant coaching turnover, and spending resources to strengthen the secondary, receiving corps, and just about everything ahead of the offensive line.

The Skins have already been the talk of the league this offseason by hiring Mike Shanahan, but we are apparently just getting started on our annual plunge into stupidity (although Snyder got a head start with this sweet shirt). In the words of Pro Football Talk, the "Peppers-to-Redskins rumors go to full boil." Yes, Peppers is an uber-talented pass rusher who can be dominant on his day, but let's take a step back to the 2009 NFL draft. The Skins, sitting at #13, were desperately in need of help at defensive end/rushing the passer, and lo and behold, have the best defensive player and best pass rusher in college football fall into their arms, awesome. Even the Snyderrato train wreck couldn't screw up that pick, but oh, we did. After drafting this incredible defensive end, we decided to move him to linebacker! Not even 3-4 linebacker, but a 4-3 linebacker! Rak proceeded to be an unstoppable force whenever he was allowed to rush the quarterback, but play a generally mediocre linebacker, which everyone except the Redskins saw coming. I know Rak made the Pro Bowl, but that was based on his sack total and those few plays where he was allowed to do what he does best; God forbid we actually put a promising young player in a position to succeed (see Campbell, Jason). If you want any proof that the pick is stupid as long as Rak plays OLB, then consider that Brian Cushing went 2 picks after Rak, and ended up as the ROY as an OLB in a 4-3 defense. The bright side is that Rak could make a great 3-4 OLB, but I still would prefer to see him in his 'natural' position.

Now fast-forward back to this free agency class and Julius Peppers, who will command a monstrosity of a contract. Putting aside questions about his consistency and desire after getting this new contract, the Skins are trying to sign an elite defense end and move him to OLB! I have seen this movie before and it doesn't end well! I understand that Peppers is supremely athletic (like Rak), has the talent to play LB and DE (like Rak), and the immediate need is for his unnatural position (like Rak), but that doesn't mean that this is a good move. Peppers is going to get a record contract because of his performance and ability as a DE, not because he might be a really good OLB. In this case, really good won't be good enough for the money we are potentially about to spend. I have plenty of questions about whether Peppers will be a dominant enough DE to live up to a huge contract, but now to basically need him to be the best defensive player in the league as a 3-4 OLB? Not to mention rumors of us going after Brandon Marshall, aka instant locker room aids. Meet the new regime, same as the old regime.............

(Image courtesy of www.mkrob.com)

Super Bowl Pick: The Joy of Rooting for Other Teams

What would it be like to not be a Skins fan? Supporting the Skins has brought us fans years of pain and anger, and this season, above all, was so bad that the final game brought me a sense of relief rather than frustration that Skins came up short again. So when the playoffs started, I needed to find another team to support to keep myself fully engaged.

Usually gambling does the trick, but my Skins anger boiled-over to the point that I had a strong rooting interest against almost all of the teams in the postseason; let's call these teams "Snyderratos". These teams include the Cowgirls, Iggles, Cardinals (Russ Grimm coulda/shoulda/woulda been our coach), Jets (Sanchez needs to have a bad career to prove Snyderrato wrong), Ravens (geographically close), San Diego (Norv Turner), and Minnesota (I can't stand Favre-mania). Add that up and you get 7 of the 12 playoff teams! With so many Snyderratos in the playoffs, along with the general bad karma for Skins fans, these playoffs were poised to be a continuation of the suckfest that was this season.

After wild-card weekend, things only got worse, as there were 8 teams left in the playoffs, and only 2 of them would not severely anger me by winning a Super Bowl; I prepared a pot of boiling water, vinegar, and exacto-knives accordingly. But then, a funny/amazing thing happened......the Snyderratos were all crushed. Check out the game-by-game results; every game went exactly as a Skin fan could have hoped. The Cards, Cowboys, and Ravens were all annihilated, Norv Turner lost a close playoff game to an underdog, and then Saints and Colts took care of Favre-hysteria and the extreme remorse I'd have that the Skins should have hired the Wisenhunt-Grimm combo. I had no idea how amazing it is to root for anybody who isn't the Skins. All these other teams don't crush my hopes and even exceed expectations. This leaves me with mixed feelings, as I enjoyed the ride of all of our enemies losing, but now realize, more than ever, just how pathetic it is being a Skins fan.

So who does a Skins fan root for on Sunday? I have no problems with the Colts, as they have no Redskin ties, but I have wavered on the Saints. Should I feel nauseous or proud that we almost beat the potential best team in the league? Should I hate any success of Gregg Williams, or support him because he was screwed by Snyderrato? Do I hate Mark Brunell for his 2 year suckfest in DC, or should I support him for his honorable service and the 1 year he led us to the playoffs? I don't really care about Brunell, he's just a holder, but Grilliams, aka Man Boobs, I have to support. I'd be upset if Man Boobs was having success as a head coach, but as a D Coordinator? He got jobbed by not succeeding Gibbs, and now lives separately from his family, who still live in VA. How can you not root for him? He's one of us! So I think Skins fans have to ride the Saints bandwagon on Sunday...........until Brunell enters the game.

The standings (with pushes excluded and differences in total games picked a result of us using slightly different spreads.):
Sports Guy: 1-1 last week 137-122 overall (52.9%)
FO: 1-1 last week, 132-126 overall (51.2%)
DCLS: 1-1 last week, 117-127 overall (48.0%)

New Orleans +6 over Indianapolis - That spread is huge, but get this, the metrics like the Saints straight-up! Not barely, but at 56%, which is significant. FO has the Saints as the better overall team, by 2 spots in their rankings. All that said, FO 'only' has this as a reasonable pick, despite the better team getting almost a touchdown.

So sit back and enjoy the fact that regardless of which team wins, Redskin frustration is over..................at least for 2 months until we draft a QB..................

(Image courtesy of coltsgab.com)

Kiper Tabs Bradford as Skins QB of the Future...

...for now, at least.

From Mel Kiper's Mock Draft 1.0 (must be an ESPN Insider to read the full article):

4. Washington Redskins 

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Mike Shanahan and the Redskins can get a quarterback here who might have been the top player taken had he opted to come out last year. The Redskins need to find their franchise quarterback, and when healthy, Bradford is an exceptionally accurate passer with an underrated arm. Shanahan also hit on his last QB selection when he drafted Jay Cutler in Denver.

How do I feel about this? Not great. Not quite sure what Kiper is getting at with that last sentence, either. Since when was Jay Cutler considered anything but a mediocre quarterback? Oh, that's right, last summer when Snyderrato nearly traded for the little douche.

If Shanahan/Allen really want to draft a QB, then I guess I'm okay with that. But please not with the 4th pick, and please not if Russell Okung - or the Offensive Lineman du jour - is available.

A better idea - trade LaRon Landry for a 5th round pick, then trade our 4th overall pick back for LaRon Landry! I jest...

Divisional Round Picks: Tony Romo Will Not Cry

So last week I had to endure reality that either the Cowboys or Eagles would win a playoff game. Now? All I want is for the Cowboys to get embarrassed. The problem is that I just don't see it happening.......

The Vikings played a soft schedule and were exposed at the end of the season (not that Giants game when they 'exposed' the G-Girls). As much as it pains me, I think the Cowboys are moving on, and we will not get to see Romo cry. Sure, the Vikings can win, and are even favored, but I'm thinking that I should just prepare myself for the happiness that will come from not having to hear about Brett Favre eating breakfast. Just like last week, this game will make me mad regardless of what happens.

As for the other games, they stoke a lot of bad feelings for DC. I still hate Norv Turner, so am rooting against the Chargers, but also hate Mark Sanchez because I want Snyderrato proven wrong that he was the right move. Just like the Cowgirls-Vikings, I lose either way.

I also hate watching the Cardinals have success with Russ Grimm there. I definitely am rooting for the guy, but in some twisted world think that he could be having the same type of success had we hired him. I also lost a lot of money last week picking the Packers thanks to Kurt Warner's deal with the devil. As for the Saints, I don't like them because the Skins almost beat them, and I somehow think that they show what the Skins could be.................I haven't slept a lot this week.

I am also not one of those fans who hates the Ravens and views them as a rival, but some strong success by our neighbors would also be tough to swallow. Now the Colts, well I have nothing. I like watching Peyton Manning play and act, check and check, I keep thinking Orakpo is the next Dwight Freeney, so also like watching him succeed, check, no bad ties to the Redskins, check again! I think I found a team to not hate!

On to the picks..........FO's 'locks of the week' are 10-14 with 1 'lock' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 32-40, and their 'stay away' picks are 88-68. Please note that differences in total games picked is a result of us using slightly different spreads.

The standings (with pushes excluded):
Sports Guy: o-4 last week 133-120 overall (52.6%)
FO: 3-1 last week, 130-122 overall (51.6%)
DCLS: 2-2 last week, 114-124 overall (47.9%)

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence with home teams in CAPS.

1. New York Jets +8 over SAN DIEGO - The surprise of the week? FO has the Jets straight-up! I hate going against the Bolts and going with Dirty Sanchez, but this is a lot of points and a great matchup for the Jets. FO has the Jets are their #7 team, and the Bolts as their #3, but let's not forget that the Jets have thee #1 pass defense in the league to counter the Bolts #1 passing offense, and run the ball well, which could cause problems for the Charger defense that is 25th in the league in run defense.
   


2. Arizona +7 over NEW ORLEANS - First team to 50 wins! I know the Saints might be a sleeping giant, but FO notes that the Cards have actually been the better team recently by weighted numbers, with the Cards as the #8 team, and the Saints at #12. I should mention that the Cards got a little lucky last week, played a great game, and still have no defense going against an absolute offensive juggernaut.
   


3. Baltimore +7 over INDIANAPOLIS - Unibrow wasn't great last week, but the Ravens were and that is a lot of points to pass-up for FO's #1 team. That said, I don't want to get too excited about 1 great game from the Ravens, and think Peyton makes every defense look bad. Flacco under pressure? I'll give the points, I think Indy is charging right to the Super Bowl and has to be the favorite.
   


4. Dallas +3 over MINNESOTA - It kills me, but I'm buying the Cowboys and think the big secret of the NFL this year may be that the Vikings aren't particularly good. According to Aaron Schatz, aka football metrics Jesus, the Vikes are the worst team left in the playoffs and the Cowboys the 2nd best, but FO has the Vikings straight-up. Why? As Schatz discussed in his podcast with Sports Guy this week, he really doesn't fully understand, but the metrics favor the Vikings straight-up once the splits and matchups are input. That said, I still think the Cowboys are the pick, and will gladly take the points. On the bright side, I want both of these teams out of the playoffs with 'death to Favre-mania' being #2 on my remaining wishlist for the playoffs. Also, a Cowboys win means Wade Phillips probably keeps his job, which is good news for anyone playing the Cowboys, ever.

To recap, 3 of these games will have outcomes that piss me off, regardless of who wins. If you're a DC fan, I think you have to like the Colts right? Or maybe the soft spot for Russ Grimm makes you a Cards 'fan'?

(Image courtesy of slog.thestranger.com)

Don't Get Your Hopes Up

Finally, a Redskins offseason in the hands of a competent pair (Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen) instead of a dimwitted duo. A pair that will have a plan, implement it, draft wisely, demonstrate patience, and develop players. Or will they?

We all know that Shanahan (138-90 career W-L, 8-5 Postseason record) and Allen have been successful on their own. But can they coexist together, with Snyder, and within the NFC East? I'm not so optimistic.

The new power structure atop the Redskins organization is bizarre and disaster already foreseeable. Bruce Allen was hired as GM, but all the football decisions are being left to Shanahan. Um, what? Per Adam Schefter, who appears once every 4 minutes on ESPN, Snyder is leaving all football decisions in the hands of his two new hires. Sure, Adam. So basically, Bruce Allen is in charge of the team, except when Shanahan says otherwise, and except when Snyder decides to sign Free Agent Y for $800 million over the next 17 seasons. This is going to be fun.

And I'm not so optimistic about Shanahan as a coach/personnel guy. Shanahan inherited the Broncos Super Bowl rosters, and then after Elway retired built his teams around smaller and quicker zone-blocking offensive linemen, and zero defense. Everyone in DC is clamoring with Hogs-nostalgia for a sturdy offensive line that will take us into the 2020s. Will Shanahan adapt to the bruising NFC East style or try to impose his zone blocking scheme on it? Or will it be an awkward mix that completely fails? One offseason, the last place Browns cut their entire defensive line, and Shanahan signed them all one by one. The Broncos remain one of the league's worst defenses year-to-year, and that's all thanks to Shanahan.

When newcomers arrive in DC, fans become impatient and Snyder's deep pockets tempt those in charge to make the quick fix. But we need something different. We need a team built soundly and developed patiently. This will require three giant egos to coexist, will require Allen and Shanahan to work together towards constructing a sound and deep roster on both sides of the ball, and will require unprecedented patience on Snyder's part. Making it work won't be automatic. It will take time, and it might fail. If recent history has taught us anything, it probably will.

Don't be tempted by the big-name hire. It doesn't mean anything until we see the results.