The Robbery is in Progress! Pirates Stealing our Orioles Cavalry Nickame

When I nicknamed the bevy of Oriole pitching prospects in the minors "The Cavalry", over a year ago, little did I know I would that it would become so internationally popular. Okay, well not exactly popular with Oriole fans or about the Orioles per se, but now the Pittsburgh Pirates radio network has decided to steal the nickname for the "slew" of prospects they are graduating to the majors (I am pretty sure the guy on the right is the culprit). Not only do I already hate Pittsburgh, but we came up with this one year ago!

We have been tracking The Cavalry's progress here and here, as well as referenced the nickname many times. This is not the first time a nickname of ours has been stolen, see the battle for "Baseball Jesus" which has now been decided by Matt Wieters becoming "Blue Balls" and Stephen Strasburg confirming that he is the Messiah. Now the Pirates radio network is getting publicity on an ESPN.com (insider) article by Kevin Goldstein. That coulda been us?!? Well, maybe not.....

(Image courtesy of mlb.com)

The Other Prospect Wins First Start: Hope in the DMV?

While everyone was busy tracking Stephen Strasburg's between game routine and rehashing his historic debut, Jake Arrieta quietly had his own long-awaited debut tonight for the Orioles.....and Jake did not dissapoint. No, it was not 14 Ks in 7 innings, but he had 6 ks in 6 innings and defeated the Yankees.

The first start for any pitcher can mean very little, but this is significant for Arrieta and the O's. While everyone is freaking out about the Nats having Strasburg and Bryce Harper, the Orioles now have their 'big 3' of Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Arrieta all pitching in the bigs. Although Zach Britton may yet prove to be the best of the cavalry, these 3 were the top Oriole prospects going into Monday's draft, and will need to come through for this team to have any chance of catching the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in the not-too-distant future. Any chance for the DCLS nickname 'The Cavalry' of catching on depends on these guys!

The O's are 6.5 game out of 2nd-to-last place in the entire MLB and have almost locked up the right to draft 3B Anthony Rendon in 2011, but 3 of every 5 games are now must see for fans. Although the Nats are closer to contention than the Birds and have Strasburg, this Orioles fan sees a lot more to keep his interest for the remainder of the season in Baltimore.

(Image courtesy of camdenchat.com)

Oriole Cavalry Update: Hope or Blue Balls?

Don't look now, while the world is busy waiting for pitching Jesus to grace Nationals Park, the Orioles have quietly cut the deficit behind the Astros to 2.5 games.........for last place in the entire league. Although we have the inside track on the #1 pick in 2011, there does not appear to be a Bryce Harper or pitching Jesus. There has to be hope somewhere, right?!?

Let's see, the OPS's of Ma-not-so-kickass, Pacman, and Baseball Jesus, and Nolan Reimold currently sit at .839, .674, and .656 and .639. Nope, those aren't slugging % figures, those are slugging + on-base %......kill me. I've started calling Baseball Jesus "Blue Balls", because I get so excited to watch him hit every time, and all he's brought me is disappointment and pain. Even the O's top-2 hitting prospects are struggling at triple-A!

I do have some hope though, in the form of the cavalry, the O's bevy of pitching prospects that are poised to lead us to the promised land (aka slightly ahead of the Blue Jays). Here is a list of the talented group:

Brian Matusz - After a hot start, he has cooled-down considerably, but is still posting a better than 2:1 K-to-BB ratio, while allowing less than 1 HR every 10 innings. He is still just 23, and still looks like he will be an absolute beast. Now we just need 3-4 more starters and 9 hitters and we'll have something....The nickname Obi-Won for being our only hope still fits pretty damn well.

Brad Bergeson - Huuuuge disappointment here. I didn't exactly have him pinned as a future star, but thought we had a #3-4 starter after last year. His K/BB ratio has plummeted from 2.03 to 0.81, not good. He's also given up 8 HRs in 9 starts, whereas he gave up 11 in 19 starts last year. He is also just 24, but this is a large step in the wrong direction.

David Hernandez - Just put him in the bullpen already, he dominates the minors and gets shelled in the bigs. His funky delivery can only play in the pen.

Chris Tillman - The former #1 prospect of this group pretty thoroughly dominated triple-A to the tune of almost a 4/1 K-to-BB ratio. He still is susceptible to the long ball, which was evident in him giving up 2 HRs in his debut this season, but I know am moderately interested to watch at least 2 out of every 5 O's games.

Jake Arrieta - His star faded a bit last year, but that is a distant memory now. In a recent ESPN Insider article, he was listed as the #9 prospect for the remainder of this season. His K/BB ratio is only slightly below 2.0, but he has made up for it by only allowing 3 HRs in 71 innings of work (or as the ESPN.com guy who probably hasn't watched him play said, 'he's keeping the ball down'). He will be up this season for a look eventually, which will mean all of our 'big 3' will be up, and maybe to stay by the end of the year.

Troy Patton - He has been more of the same at triple-A, a 2:1 K-to-BB ratio and a low KK rate. The problem is that he has been giving up a lot of HRs this year, so is not ready for the bigs just yet, and definitely not ready to be the 4th or 5th starter on the O's next championship team. Yeah, I said it.....He is turning 25 this year, so the clock is starting to tick....

Brandon Erbe - He has a similar line to Patton, but an astounding 0-8 record. Fortunately, that is only slightly worse than the usual record for the MLB O's, so not a concern. He is only 22, but still is likely a bullpen guy long term.

Zach Britton - Arguably a better prospect than Tillman or Arrieta, he is 22 and doing just fine thank you at double-A. He is not ready for the big time, posting just over a 2/1 K-to-BB ratio and 4 HRs allowed in 59.2 innings. Remember that Britton is the same age as Erbe, just without the arm problems and crazy delivery.

It is still hard to say how any of these guys will turn out (see Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, and any pitching prospect ever), but you still have to think that from Matusz, Tillman, Britton, and Arrieta we have the makings of a strong and cheap future rotation. Now if Blue Balls could go back to being Jesus.....

(Stats courtesy of espn.com, Norfolk Tides website, and Bowie Baysox website. Image courtesy of Baltimoresun.com)

Not Even Baseball Jesus Can Save the Orioles

Today's game notwithstanding, the Orioles have been absolutely destroyed by their early season schedule and life isn't getting any easier with 12 straight games against the Yankees and Red Sox starting on Friday. Not only are we the worst team in baseball by our 2-11 record, but after only 13 games, we are 2.5 games behind the 2nd-worst team!

We're certainly not 0-18 bad, but here are the quick stats:

• 2nd-worst run differential in the league
• 23rd in OPS
• 17th in ERA
• 26th in batting average against

The huuuge caveat amidst the depression is that this season is about developing our young talent, but our savior, Matt Wieters, has a .673 OPS, 1 homerun, and 0 times impatiently homering from the on-deck circle. Nick Markakis is doing nothing to prove last year was a fluke by posting a .771 OPS, and Adam Jones is at .675. Down on the farm, Chris Tillman is 0-3 with a 8.38 ERA despite a solid K/BB ratio of 10/4 and not allowing any HRs. Jake Arrieta, meanwhile, has a K/BB ratio of 7/6, and Brandon Erbe is 7/4 with a 7.45 ERA.

As far as bright spots, Felix Pie has continued to show he may actually be an okay hitter and major leaguer and our new hope and savior, Brian Matusz has been awesome, leading the AL in K's and trailing only Lincecum in all of MLB, having a K/BB ratio of 23/7, not allowing 1 HR, and improving his ground ball/fly ball out ratio with each game. Billy Rowell has finally started hitting in Frederick, and Zach Britton is off to a good start in Bowie, but that's about it.

We need this Cal Ripken coup ASAP.

(Image courtesy of misterirrelevant.com)

O's: A Growing Threat in AL East

A few days ago, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports wrote a great piece on the emerging Baltimore Orioles, with mentions of the Balticore, The Cavalry, and of course, DCLS favorite Baseball Jesus.

Here's an excerpt below, but be sure to check out the the entire article. Promising stuff.

The praise, almost universal, always comes with a disclaimer. Scouts love the Baltimore Orioles. They want to peg them as baseball’s great darkhorse of 2010, the latest team that can turn homegrown talent into long-term success. Only the scouts won’t go so far, not without a seven-word postscript.

If only they weren’t in that division.

Such is life in the American League East, baseball’s iron maiden, where even the most well-run upstart finds itself trapped underneath the enormity of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The Orioles have spent a dozen miserable seasons thrashing about, the vortex of mismanagement sucking the life out of what once stood as a model franchise. And only now, under general manager Andy MacPhail’s stewardship, is the cannonball hole in the bow fixed and the ship ready for righting.

Oriole Season Recap: Are We Still on Track to Contend?

So I was flipping through the channels the other day and lo and behold, the baseball playoffs had started. Which is funny because you know what I haven't done since 1997?........Watch my team play postseason baseball..........The start of the postseason signals the end of the season for the O's and Nats, so it is high time we wrote our season recaps.

I have gone back and forth about the O's this year. As hard as it sounds, you have to look past the 98 losses and only examine the core young players who will be with the team in a few years. All that matters from this season is not the epic ineptitude of Jason Berken, but rather the individual performances of players such as Baseball Jesus, Nick Markickass, and Chris Tillman. For quite some time, the realistic expectation for this team has been to reach the playoffs come 2011. In order to avoid wasting time with the Melvin Mora's, I will go player-by-player amongst the guys we think might be a part of the next great Orioles team.

***

Brian Roberts - Here is the best Oriole from 2009. He pretty much lapped the field in Baseball Prospectus' VORP, which is his value, in runs, over a replacement level player at the same position. He finished as the 5th best 2B in baseball, but VORP only accounts for hitting, and Roberts' fielding fell off a cliff last year. This leads me to the biggger point: Roberts is clearly a good player, but he will be 32 at the start of next season. That means he will be 33 at the start of our hopeful Oriole revival season. So...can we count on him? His trade value diminishes by the minute, but that does not mean trading him is the wrong move. He suffered his first drop in OPS since his post age-27 season (his career year, and career year for most baseball players), and could be headed straight for mediocrity next season. His Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections next season will be interesting, but I am skeptical that he will help the team much in 2 years.

Nick Markickass - We may have to remove the "kickass" from his name soon enough. This is a guy who has taken dramatic leaps forward in production each of the past 2 years, and was another dramatic leap from literally being an MVP candidate, according to BP before this season. Well, about that leap......this year he lept backward. He was not a bad player by any stretch, but was the 14th best RF by VORP, which is the definition of mediocore. This was a time when he was supposed to be improving, so it was particularly hard to stomach. His struggles were not limited to the plate either; after being one of the better RFers in the league, he dropped to slightly below average. Nick the Greek will still only be 26 at the start of next season, and presumably in his peak year in 2011, so there is still a lot of room for growth, and he should be a 'good' player on the O's for many years. The question has now become whether this year is an aberration, or has his ceiling dropped a bit to the point that he will only be a part of the next great O's team as apposed its centerpiece?

Adam Jones - His phenomenal start to the season led many to think he was having his breakout year, but that lasted about as long as I do in bed. Jones' performance declined by month and he ultimately finished the season on the DL. His fielding has remained a huge plus, and should get better with age. The final result was a solid year, but one that did not live up to the expectations he created with that hot start. That said, the performance is not bad, and he is still on track to be a great player. He is only one year younger than Markickass, and this past season has raised the same question about whether he will be very good, or great. In the meantime, I have been trying to figure out a nickname for him that is not "Pacman". My so-bad-it's-funny idea is "The Carpenter"...because he has all the tools...

Baseball Jesus (Matt Wieters) - We covered his season pretty thoroughly recently, so I will keep this as brief as I can. His slow start caused me a lot of sleepless nights, but he heated up and finished as one of the top catchers in baseball. He is only 23, so what does the future hold? He is clearly on track to be fixture in the midsummer classic, but what about the absurd ceiling that last year's minor league performance created? For those of you who (unlike me) don't think about Matt Wieters during your most intimate moments, he had the best season of any pro baseball player in the last 40 years, at any level. While his first major league season was very good, his ceiling has dropped a bit from the once-in-a-generation talent that impatiently homers from the on-deck circle. Nevertheless, he is still a special player and will be a leader on the 2011 team, so feel free to purchase a Wieters jersey and ponder whether his granite balls chafe, or are sanded to a glossy finish so that they swish gently across his knees.

Nolan Reimold - Aha, finally a guy who exceeded expectations. Reimold looked like a future solid LFer before this season, but had a huge season and now looks to be much better than just solid. This year he was already in the top-half of MLB LFers, with the only downside being that he is already 26, so his growth potential is not as great as the others. He is also not a good fielder, but can at least be spotted by Felix Pie in late innings.

Josh Bell - If watching George Sherril move on to more successful pastures made you upset, take heart in that we got a very good prospect in return who looks very much like our 3B of the future.

Brandon Snyder - After dominating double-A ball he had some struggles in triple-A, but still looks like a major leaguer in the near future. He lacks superstar potential, but the O's will be more than happy if he can hold down the regular 1B job.

Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz - We covered these guys througout the season and while it is hard to judge young pitchers, Matusz appeared to live up to the hype as Tillman seemed a bit shaky. Both of these guys are still on track to be front-line starters, however, so let's just hope for a little more Justin Verlander and a little less Phil Hughes.

Jake Arrieta - He had a somewhat dissapointing season, lagging behind Matusz and Tillman, but his upside has merely dropped from a number 2 to number 3 starter, so no big concerns here.

Brad Bergeson - I had to include him after having the biggest breakout season on the team this year. He is 23 and was probably the best rookie pitcher in baseball after J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, and Andrew Bailey until injury shortened his season. He may not be a future star but is an example of the ability of the Oriole army of pitching prospects to fill out a very good and very cheap rotation in the very near future.

Zach Britton - This guy was not even listed in BP's 2009 book, but has arguably become the best non-MLB prospect in the organization. He still has a ways to go but looks to be a future MLB starter.

***

Here is how the 2011 (and beyond) Orioles are shaping up:

C - Matt Wieters

1B - Brandon Snyder

2B - Brian Roberts?

3B - Josh Bell

SS - ?

LF - Nolan Reimold

CF - Adam Jones

RF - Nick Markickass

Utility - Felix Pie

DH - ?

SP1 - Brian Matusz

SP2 - Chris Tillman

SP3 - Zach Britton

SP4 - Jake Arrieta

SP5 - Brad Bergeson

RP - Brandon Erbe

***

As you can see, we have almost an entire cheap team in place, which leaves a lot of money to fill only a few holes. There is almost no doubt that this will be a solid team, with a potentially elite pitching staff and Wieters, Markickass, and Jones the offensive centerpieces. The question is whether this team will be solid or perhaps great enough to compete with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox? From where I stand I see a lot of good players, but when the Yank's roll out A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, etc. you need more than just good. Wieters is on the cusp of superstardom, but he appears to be the only potential elite hitter in this lineup, meaning the team may have to be carried by its pitching staff.

The biggest hurdle for the O's may be that they have to play the Yankees and Red Sox 18 times each per season. Their record against those teams last year was 7-29! If they had played those two teams as well as they did the rest of the league, they would have had another seven wins. Those seven extra wins would have only pushed 'em to 71 wins last season. A team needs about 85 wins to get into the playoffs, so having 71 last year, and conservatively projecting a six win per year improvement over the next two seasons puts the O's at 83 wins in 2011 - and right in the playoff race.

Unfortunately, the Yankees and Red Sox have shown no signs of falling back to earth, and we only won 64 games, not the 71 we would have won in this theoretical world where my life as a baseball fan does not suck. After years of endless 'rebuilding', even a solid team would be a joy to watch. But I still hold out hope that this team could reach much greater heights.

[Image courtesy of nachofoto.com]

Oriole Cavalry Slowling Comes Marching In

We posted about the small army of Oriole pitching prospects a few months ago, and are finally ready for an update. The reason for the delay is that Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz made Christmas come a little early for Birds fans by being called-up to the big leagues, so tracking their stats seemed like stating the obvious.

That said, the Oriole pitching army goes beyond Tillman and Matusz, so here is a quick glance at each prospect's stats at his current level (note that the minor league season has ended, so all non-MLB stats are final, and this does not include Tillman's 27 k's perfect game that will happen tomorrow night). For the non-Sabermatricians, ERA and Wins are excluded because they are not the most performance indicators, the best indicators are Ks, BBs, and HRs allowed:




The quick notes:

• The golden arm, Tillman, has had a rough start, but is still only 21 and is considered less polished than Matusz, so I wouldn't worry too much about his MLB stats so far. BTW, his triple-A stats were phenomenal and he probably still has 'the force'.
• Matusz has been great after a rocky start to his MLB career, but you probably already knew that.
• Hernandez has had a rough time, and continues to look like a bullpen guy long-term. On the bright side, he has inspired all non-steroid abusers that they have HR power.
• Bergesen was not included in the first article, but has been the surprise this year. His K/BB ratio and HR-allowed rate are solid, but his K/IP isn't great so his upside is still much lower than that of Tillman or Matusz, despite already having a solid MLB season under his belt.
• Arrieta hasn't exactly dominated triple-A, but has done well and is in line to be with the O's in 2010. His ceiling has dropped a little, but his performance has not been a huge concern, just a little slower than I had hoped.
  
• Troy Patton is struggling mightily in triple-A, so much so that I'm leaning towards nicknaming him TP. His chances of being the 5th starter are all-but gone, maybe a bullpen role could work.
• Erbe overcame an early season arm injury and has pitched well. He hasn't been overwhelming, but very good, and should be a strong performer in double-A at age 22.
• Zach Britton has steadily become perhaps our most promising prospect outside of the majors. Still only in single-A, but his numbers have been great, and at age 21 has at least caught Erbe in terms of prospect status.

I know pitching prospects are like lottery tickets, but it is not hard to see Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, and Bergeson being future rotation pitchers. Tillman and Matusz have the chance to be special, and Hernandez, Patton, and Erbe, haven't set the world on fire, but could certainly be great relievers. As we said a few months ago, the O's have some depth in arms, so our chances of filling a good and cheap rotation are very high; this is not like the Nats pinning their hopes on 1-2 guys. Yeah, I'm optimistic, but this is the most promise we've had in the gonorrhea capital since Brady Anderson's timed his steroid cycle perfectly and that fat yutz Maier ripped our season from Tony Tarasco's glove.

In other news, the O's are a tidy 34 games out of first place and the sun set in the West tonight.

(Stats courtesy of the Frederick Keys, Bowie Baysox, Norfold Tides, and ESPN.com)

This Just In....Oh, I Already Knew That....

Just finished the WaPo sports section and came across a funny little table that lists MLB team pitching statistics by team ERA, and well, whaddya know? The Nats are the worst staff in the NL, and O's are the 2nd worst in the AL, boy didn't see that coming.

Details on the Nats:
-2nd-to-last in strikeouts in the NL, ahead of only the Pirates.
-2nd-to-last in walks, only the Mets have issued more.

Orioles:
-Worst in the league in HRs surrendered, a whopping 11 ahead of the next-to-worst Angels.
-Worst in strikeouts.
-Last in the league in shutouts, with 2 on the year.

The Anchorman and the cavalry can't come soon enough.

(Image courtesy of cardboardkings.com)

Here Comes Gandalf (Chris Tillman) To Save The Day!

Tonight the Orioles' #1 starting pitching prospect Chris Tillman debuts against the Royals. He joins fellow rookie starters Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and Jason Berken in the rotation hopefully through the end of this season and beyond. Like Gandalf, he will lead the charge that will eventually wipe out the evil armies of the AL East with some nasty curveballs and 94 MPH heat.

Here are his AAA stats:

18 games started, 8-6 (W-L), 2.70 ERA, 96.2 IP (5.1 Innings/start), 99 Ks, 22 BBs, 1.15 WHIP.

Erik Bedard Erik Shmedard. Gimme Tillman, Jones and George Sherill any day. Hail MacPhail!

"The Cavalry Is Coming": The O's Pitching Prospects are Horses

Yeah, the O’s are in last place, Matt Wieters’ slugging percentage is what I thought his batting average would be, and there is a general lack of Oriole Magic these days, but there is still reason for hope in Baltimore. An army of Orioles starting pitching prospects have been performing like thoroughbreds this season, and just added 5th overall pick Matt Hobgood to an already promising stable. As the innings mount up this summer we'll be keeping an eye on their progress but here are the numbers through the first two months :

This is basically the globe of lottery balls from which the Orioles will select their future starting rotation. All of these dudes have been drafted recently, some even by the O's scouting staff! Dave Tremblay noted at the beginning of the season that "the cavalry is coming" and he's lookin' prophetic right now. Most of these guys will get a whiff of Camden grass this year or next so let's get further acquainted with Baseball Jesus' future disciples, shall we?

"The Cavalry"

Leading the pack is future ace Chris Tillman, who is treating triple-A like Carl Lewis in the special Olympics. Beyond the stats, Baseball Prospectus 2009 notes that that, “scouts and opposing hitters say he has it,” which I think is slang for “The Force”. He should be up with the Birds by the end of the season and in the rotation for good early next year; he projects as a #1 frontline starter.[image via MLB.com]

#2 Prospect Jake Arrieta was called up to AAA Norfolk last week and killed it in his debut, striking out 6 and allowing just one run on 2 hits. He started slowly in AA Bowie this season but had dazzled on the mound more recently, and looks every bit a future top 2-3 starter. If he continues his momentum in AAA the Orioles would be thrilled to give him a shot this summer, but the safe bet is on the O's taking it slow with these kids. Expect Arrieta to start in AAA next season.[image via SI.com]

The Orioles 3^rd best pitching prospect is currently plying his trade in single-A, Brian Matusz. When the O's took him 4th overall last June he was considered the safer pick due to his consistency if not domination at UC-San Diego. His upside is Cole Hamels, downside is a solid lefty arm which is always helpful. After a brief pro-level adjustment period he's come on of late and will be in AA Bowie soon. He'll hopefully start next year in AAA Norfolk and if all goes smoothly will get a shot with the O's. [image via College Baseball Prospects Blog]

David Hernandez, who has led single-A, double-A and triple-A in strikeouts, has never been considered an elite prospect because he relies on a deceptive delivery to mask average stuff (source: Baseball Prospectus 2009). He shined brightly in his big league debut a few weeks ago, but has flattened out a bit in his last two outings. Major League hitters figured out Hideo Nomo and his tornado wind-up pretty quickly so hopefully that's not happening to Hernandez already (cough, Dontrelle Willis, cough...some puke just came up). I think if we keep our expectations low here, we could be pleasantly surprised. We'll see if he has starter stuff. [image via baltimoresun.com]

The fifth pitcher of interest is Troy Patton, who was acquired in the Tejada trade and appeared in two games with Houston in '07. The O's have been more patient with him, and he just made the jump to AAA with Arrieta but hasn't pitched in Norfolk yet. He's projected more as a Jamie Moyer type (a "crafty mid-rotation lefty."), especially after having missed all of '08 with a labrum tear. If he can quell injury concerns he could debut with the O's as soon as this summer. [image via masn.com]

AA Bowie prospect Brandon Erbe was projected by baseball Prospectus 2009 as a future relief pitcher due to having only 2 pitches, and that projection looks pretty good now that Erbe has been sidelind with “shoulder fatigue” after only 20 innings pitched. Shoulder problems at that age are troubling, so hard to see him not moving to the pen this season where he could begin to compete for the future closer role.

The last pitcher I will mention has not been a big name in talks of prospects, but he's the O's Lebron. Literally. His name is Luis Lebron, and I am feeling good about my ‘find’ here. He's been moved to the 'pen, but looks ready for a promotion to AA Bowie this season.

***

Pitching prospects are notorious for being ‘hit and miss’, but it is hard to see the Orioles not getting a great rotation out of these nine: Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen, Hernandez, Patton, Hobgood and a Random Free Agent Fill-In. Then again, it was hard not seeing Ben McDonald becoming the next Jim Palmer in 1989 - at least the odds are better this time around. I think. I have to lie down now after banging my head on the wooden desk as hard as I could.