Week 14 Picks: We are Barely Favored to Win!!!

We coulda shoulda woulda beat the Saints, and all we give is 1 point to the Raiders!?! Amazing, and either Vegas/the general public knows something, or the Skins are finally being underrated by the point spread. Maybe we play down the competition, but how can you not like our odds tomorrow? Is the pressure on us to win? This is an unfamiliar feeling.......

The standings (with pushes excluded):

Sports Guy: 4-12 last week, 108-88 overall

FO: 7-9 last week, 92-96

DCLS: 4-12 last week, 90-99 overall

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence, and I have bolded a team wherever I differ (home teams in CAPS). Please note that differences in total games picked is a result of us using slightly different spreads.

1. DALLAS -3 over San Diego
2. Philadelphia +1 over NEW YORK GIANTS
3. Buffalo -1 over KANSAS CITY
4. Washington -1 over OAKLAND
5. Pittsburgh -10 over CLEVELAND
6. Seattle +6 over HOUSTON
7. Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO
8. Denver +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
9. BALTIMORE -14 over Detroit
10. Cincinnati +7 over MINNESOTA
11. ATLANTA +10 over New Orleans
12. St. Louis +13 over TENNESSEE
13. New York Jets -3 over TAMPA BAY
14. Miami +3 over JACKSONVILLE
15. NEW ENGLAND +14 Carolina
16. SAN FRANCISCO +3.5 over Arizona

(Image courtesy of blogs.westword.com)

Speaking of our Poll.....

Quinton Ganther was officially named the starter for Sunday's game against the Raiders.


As much as everyone loves Rock, he just isn't a very good NFL running back, so this move is welcome for a guy who is putting up great numbers behind a hopeless offensive line. Against the #25 run defense, maybe a breakout game is coming......

(Image courtesy of www3.pictures.zimbio.com)

Unbelievably-Super-Awesome Screen Capture

The Wizards nearing the Quarter Pole: A Pattern I Don't Like

The Wiz season is following a depressing pattern. I projected the Wiz to win 45 games, that is until we outplayed a 50-win team from last year, on the road, in the season opener. 50 wins definitely looked like a distinct possibility. Eh, not so much..........we then won only 1 of our next 8, and that 1 win was over the Nets, who may end up as the worst team in history. Those 9 games were the ones where we were without Cybertawn.

The Cybertawn portion of the season commenced with a win over the Cavs in game #10, so all is good again right? As in the season opener, it turned out to just be a tease, because since that win, we have gone 4-5 and currently stand at 7-12. So what's the problem and what does the rest of the season hold?

Bullets Forever beat me to it with this nice article, but the problem is that the star players aren't performing. Jamison has been good, so has Haywood, Blatche, Miller, but Agent-0 and Tough Juice have not been good enough. Yeah, they've been good, but we need them to be All-Stars. As I wrote in my season preview, "As much as I'd like to talk about X-factors and other improvements, this team will only go as far as Agent Zero will take it." There have been a lot of positives this season, but the poor performance is on the shoulder of Gil and Caron, that's the end of the discussion as to what the problem is. How to fix it or why this problem exists is a different story.

I think the reason for the struggle is the new coach/system and that these guys have not played together for awhile (remember, Gil has missed almost 2 full seasons). Caron is clearly struggling to find his role in this offense; he understood his job as the #1 guy the past couple years, but is having trouble being as efficient and productive as a #2. Gil, meanwhile, seems to be lacking some of his aggressiveness. I understand that Flip Saunders wants him to be more of a pure PG, and Gil is making an effort to curtail his boyish personality, but I don't like it. A hobo in Chinatown once told me, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Who cares if he is a fun-loving guy with a big mouth? I don't know who told Gil that 'acting mature' would make him a more valuable player, but right now that advice is looking terrible. I want the blogging, aggressive, Hibachi-calling locker room prankster back, and the Wiz are probably thinking the same thing too.

Gil and Caron have never been great defenders, but it is actually on the offensive end where they are struggling. John Hollinger has us ranked 20th in defensive efficiency, and 24th in offensive efficiency. Although the 20th best defense is nothing to brag about, we are certainly improved on that end of the floor, and enough so that if we had the offensive efficiency of the healthy Hibachi years, we'd be looking at a dangerously good team. As a comparison, Atlanta is ranked 4th in offensive and 17th in defensive efficiency and have been one of the top-5 teams in the league thus far.

As for the bright spots other than the defense, let's start and end with Young Sushi. After writing him off early in the season, he was given a 2nd chance and has clearly thrust himself back into the rotation. The Wiz are 4-3 with him as a starter, although I will say that the good record probably has more to do with Jamison being back than Young Sushi in the starting lineup. The highlights of these 7 games include 3 20-point performances and, more importantly, great defensive performances. He's held Andre Iguadala to 2-10 from the field, D-Wade to 6-19, and Stephen Jackson to 4-12. The defense is particularly interesting because his metrics have indicated that Nick is an above-average defender, but the 'eyeball test' has said otherwise. Well, maybe our eyeballs are deceiving us; just because he doesn't have a mean streak and isn't pesky like Bruce Bowen does not mean he is not performing at a high level. Nick isn't a defensive stopper by any means, but is proving that the metrics are right.

Nick still needs to learn to pass a little more often, holding a 10:11 assist to turnover ratio in these 7 games, but Deshawn Stevenson should not leave the bench for anything other than garbage time at this point. I don't think Nick's a versatile defender, but against perimeter shooters and slashers, he can be effective enough to take some of Mike Miller's minutes. The interesting thing now is that with the Wiz needing offensive help more than defensive, Miller may actually be the better fit. Even if Nick does lose some minutes in the near future, he can still provide moments like this:

So where is this team headed? John Hollinger thinks we will be shedding salary at the trade deadline, but I'm not so sure. After the top-4 teams in the East, the 5th seed in the East is a mere 3.5 games ahead of us, standing at 11-9, and may never be that far ahead of us. That said, we will need to win at least 43 games to get that 5th seed, and we are already 2.5 games under .500. With 63 games left, that means we will need to win at least 36 of those (36-27) to be .500. Even though we look like a .500 team since Jamison's return, and certainly have room for improvement, going 36-27 the rest of the way is not realistic at this point. A more realistic 40-41 wins will likely get us into the playoffs, but just make us first-round cannon fodder for the Celtics, Magic, or Cavs. Ummmm, I'll just pretend I didn't do that math and replay the belt slap video a few times........

(Image courtesy of media.nowpublic.net/)

Week 13: Saints 33, Skins 30 (OT) - Knee Jerk Reactions

For a few hours today, there were positive vibes coming out the wazoo. The team was clicking, points were being scored at an unimaginable rate, and the best team in football looked like they had fallen into a trap.

But, alas, I was the one who fell into the trap. I got emotionally involved when I promised myself I wouldn't. Again. And my Skinnies let me down. Again.

I'm not sure at what point a loss ceases to be encouraging, but I am sure that we're close. The last three games have been particularly hard to stomach - seven points separate us from a 6-6 record right now.

There were three excruciatingly frustrating plays today that stick out in my mind (aside from every significant challenge that the Redskins lost): Shaun Suisham's miss, Kareem Moore's fumble, and Kevin Barnes' muffed punt. It's too painful to talk about each of those in depth so I will defer to the comments section for anyone brave enough to chime in.

Here are some additional thoughts on the game:

• The secondary's susceptibility to the double move is an old joke - predictable and no longer funny.
• LaRon Landry had a decent game, aside from the aforementioned long balls. Yet I can't help but hate him when he mugs for the camera after EVERY SINGLE PLAY, positive or not. After he broke a pass up in the endzone, Byron Westbrook looked to give him a high five, but Landry decided waving to the crowd and mugging for the cameras was more appropriate. He left Westbrook hanging. Dude, you ain't that tight. Shut your mouth and play some football.
• I just purchased a Devin Thomas hype machine. He was everywhere today and absolutely phenomenal returning kicks, covering kicks, and catching balls from JC17. Add a solid game from Fred Davis and your typical mediocrity from Malcolm Kelly and the 2008 Draft class is making Vinny Cerrato almost look competent. Almost.
• Offensive line was great in pass protection with their first 0-sack game of the year.
• I'm very intrigued by the Rock Cartwright/Quinton Ganther duo. They've got a jump in their step that I haven't seen in a while.
• JC17 was excellent today and will continue to be excellent for many years. Too bad it probably won't be with the Redskins.

Raiders next week. They beat the Steelers this week. Ain't no such thing as a cupcake in the NFL.

Caps Destroy Sucker-Punchers For 2nd Straight Game

I was going to post a basic recap, but the Caps just sent a message out to the league so I'll just post it here in case you didn't get it yourself.

"Dear Rest of NHL:

You are now on notice. If you continue to try any of this bush-league, sucker-punching stuff on us, we will make you pay.



They say a fight will really get your team going sometimes. Unfortunately for you, if you fight dirty, you're gonna get the wrong team going. Result: Washington 8 - Philadelphia 2.

We thought we'd made this clear 2 nights ago against the Panthers, when some guy named Duco jumped Giroux from behind and started wailing on him.



We thought our thorough 6-2 beating sent the message. I guess it didn't get through.

We now lead the league in goals and sit atop the Eastern Conference standings, a point ahead of Pittsburgh.

Oh, and Ovechkin returns Monday. And he's pissed. Haters beware.

Good luck trying to stop us.

Signed,

The Caps"

Week 13 Picks

Marion's Crackpipe is day-to-day with a router, so I'll be relaying his weekly NFL Picks. Expect a significant decrease in effort and analysis.

The standings (with pushes excluded):
-Sport's Guy: 6-8 last week, 96-75 overall (56.1%)
-Monkey throwing shit at a dart board: 86.5-86.5 overall (50%)
-DCLS: 8-7 last week, 86-87 overall (49.7%)
-Football Outsiders: 86-87 overall (49.7%)

Below are FO's picks listed in order of confidence, and a team is bolded whenever Marion's Crackpipe differs. Their only lock of the week is Buffalo, who is getting 3 points tonight at home against the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!

1. BUFFALO +3 over New York Jets - I think I just hate 'the Sanchize'.
   
2. Philadelphia -5.5 over ATLANTA - No healthy Matt Ryan means no picking the Dirty Birds.
   
3. CINCINNATI -13 over Detroit - You think Roger Goodell is cringing at the though of Calvin Johnson picking up marketing tips from Ochocinco?
   
4. Tampa Bay +6.5 over CAROLINA - I think the Bucs have moved into the 'frisky' category.
   
5. Dallas -1.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS - This is the perfect game for the Giants to turn around their season, against division rival that is inconsistent. That said, I think the Giants just aren't that good, and this turnaround game isn't happening.
   
6. TENNESSEE +7 over Indianapolis - The first true test of whether this VY-led version of the Titans is for real. I like Indy to win, but these games always end up being close dogfights, so I'll take the points. I'm intrigued to see how both teams stack-up and have this as my #1 game to watch this week.
   
7. Minnesota -4 over ARIZONA - The Vikings look like they're on a collision course to meet the Saints in the NFC Championship. This should be another awesome game to watch.
   
8. Denver -5 over KANSAS CITY - FO finally comes back down on KC. The Broncos had a long week of rest, and may be back to their early-season form.
   
9. PITTSBURGH -13.5 over Oakland - Even with Dennis Dixon at QB this line should be safe.
   
10. CLEVELAND +13 over San Diego - The Bolts have been playing well and are in a fight for their division title, so this looks like a blowout to me.
    
11. SEATTLE pick 'em over San Francisco - Turmoil and general suckiness in Seattle is pushing me to coaching Jesus.
    
12. Baltimore +3 over GREEN BAY - I see a close defensive game here, so am tempted by the points, but the Ravens struggling against the Dennis Dixon Steelers was not impressive.
    
13. WASHINGTON +9.5 over New Orleans - I think this counts as progress, a few weeks ago this line would have been over 12 points. Maybe the Saints will have a bit of a letdown, but even that may not be enough.
    
14. JACKSONVILLE pick 'em over Houston - Does this count as a game with big playoff implications, or just a game between mediocre teams?
    
15. CHICAGO -9 over St. Louis - Even a douchebag can shred the Rams.
    
16. New England +5 over MIAMI - Yeah the Pats were shredded last week, but the Dolphins O isn't going to challenge that weak secondary.
    

Tiger is...human?

It truly sucks when someone's dirty laundry is broadcast for the entire world to see, but it's a small price to pay when your celebrity also nets you millions upon millions of dollars.

When you're the most recognizable athlete on the planet and perhaps one of the greatest of all-time, and are committing indiscretions, it is important to cover your tracks. Which is exactly what Tiger Woods tried to do in this voicemail he left his mistress about a week ago. Which had the exact opposite effect of what he intended. Which only made things way, way worse for Tiger.

Listen for yourself:

[Video removed]

This just...sucks. That's really the only way to describe it.

DCLS on the Road: Caps vs. Canadiens in Montreal

Ever wondered what a black hole would sound like if one materialized before you? Here's my guess: it would sound something like the noise emitted by the 20,000 French Canadians at Bell Centre on Saturday night.

When Eric Fehr scored the game-tying goal in the closing seconds of regulation, the disbelief was palpable; the utter vacuum of sound that swallowed up the seating bowl was pierced only by the screams of the elated Capitals and Washington loyalists scattered throughout, including your DC Landing Strip correspondent.

The view from section 401 during the anthems.

The Hockey Night in Canada crowd was 15 seconds away from celebrating a satisfying come-from-behind victory in which they had kept the high-octane Caps to a measly 11 shots on goal through 40 minutes; it was all erased, thanks to some guy named Fehr, who nudged a rebound backhanded through Carey Price's pads. It was a thoroughly undeserved victory for the Caps, and it was friggin' awesome.

Some additional thoughts on the Bell Centre experience:

• We know Ovechkin's a league-wide star, but I didn't realize the magnitude of his appeal until I was treated like a returning war hero while wearing my red No. 8 sweater in the upper bowl. "You're from Washington?" a disbelieving, awestruck teen in a white Ovie sweater asked me after we exchanged some pro-Capitals pleasantries. "Yeah," I replied, "what about you?" "I'm from here," he said, "I just love Ovechkin." Similar exchanges happened more than once.
• "Washington Suck!" Try saying that in your best (worst) Francophone dialect and you'll know how I felt during one or two rare occasions.
  
• That being said, I've endured my share of heckling while wearing enemy colors before; I experienced almost none at Bell Centre on Saturday. The fans couldn't have been more knowledgeable, good-natured and welcoming to a visitor.
  
• The Montreal faithful still haven't forgiven Jose Theodore.
  
• The Habs sure do love their history: their pre-game video began with more than 10 minutes remainging on the center ice scoreboard, and they scrolled the names of each of the more-than 700 players who have donned le bleu, blanc et rouge over the team's 100 seasons.
• The upper deck is extremely roomy, like sitting in first-class compared to the Verizon Center's coach.
• The ice surface in Montreal is mic'ed by a series of suspended microphones; even if you're sitting in the second-to-last row of the building, you can hear every scrape, stick tap and tape-to-tape pass like you're sitting on the bench. How about it, Ted?
  
• "You'll notice, we don't hang Eastern Conference Champion banners here in Montreal."
• As for the game-day atmosphere, Centre Bell is no louder during a 0-0 game than Verizon Center, but here's the difference: every scoring chance or key save is met by a sharp, immediate outburst by nearly everyone in the stands. Everyone is paying attention at all times. Number of fans I saw on the BlackBerry during gameplay? Zero.
• At the same time, I was disappointed to see the Montreal faithful start "The Wave."
• Three Stars: Eric Fehr and Alex Ovechkin both skated onto the ice and acknowledged the crowd after being announced as the third and first stars of the game. When was the last time a visiting player took a spin on the ice at VC after getting a star?
• Concourse clocks indicate how much time remains before the end of intermission. Nice touch.
  

All in all, it was a good night for the Capitals in a game they surely did not deserve to win. Regardless of the result, if you have the opportunity to catch the Capitals (or any team) in Canada, you owe it to yourself to see how the nation that invented the sport presents it for the faithful.

Week 12: Eagles 27, Redskins 24 - Knee Jerk Reactions

Yeah the game hurt, but again, who didn't see this coming? Up 5, I was happy, but once we kicked that FG instead of going for the jugular everyone saw the inevitable.

At least the Skins are back to not totally sucking. Even with the gimme first TD, we played with the Eagles that whole game. Sure we were outgained, but this was not a case of us just getting lucky.

Additional thoughts:

• That interception at the end of the 1st half was beyond awful. Firstly, why are the Skins even attempting to run a play? We know we can't protect our QB, were scared to run any plays once in FG range a week ago, but suddenly want to keep throwing from our own 37 on 3rd and 8 with 1 timeout? Secondly, JC just can't get picked there and he has to know that. The objective at that point is to have a worst-case scenario of maintaining the current lead, giving Philly an easy 3 points is the worst possible thing that could happen and probably cost us the game.


• That last offensive play was definitely roughing the passer, just an egregious non-call. We would have been on our own 40-yard line with 1:04 left in the game and no timeouts. Suisham stinks, but we would have needed only need about 25 yds for him to have a shot. A point to note, however, is that Campbell blacked-out after that hit, so getting those 25 yards would have been even more difficult than usual.


• The Zornstar is the king of pained faces. He looks perpetually unhappy, until he throws-in an awkward fist pump. I am all for a Zorn camera.


• Fred Smoot, I love you, but that was an afternoon I won't soon forget. Carlos Rogers appeared to play well because he never got picked-on, but when the other corners are Tryon and Smooty (aka giant bullseyes), it is easy to look like you are shutting down half the field.
  
• Quinton Ganther is good. Rock Cartwright is not good. I am a big fan of letting Ganther get the bulk of carries next week.


• London Fletcher was terrific, covering sideline to sideline and making several key tackles. Rocky McIntosh also had a solid game.


• The 2nd round pass catching trio of Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and Fred Davis definitely had an impact and were a big reason this game was close.


• Devin Thomas appears to be our best kick returner, so why not have him try returning punts too?


• Redskins record when Brian Orakpo gets a sack? 2-4, when he doesn't get one (including today)? 1-4. Okay that didn't go anywhere, but he was quiet today in terms of big plays, despite playing a decent game.


• Funny how Andre Carter and O-Sak-Po suddenly look human without Fat Albert in the game.


• Yeah the o-line was better than usual, but the performance still stunk. JC was under fire all day despite the lack of sacks. Running lanes were also minimal.

Call me crazy, but I think we have showed enough the past 3 weeks that we will beat someone other than Oakland before the end of the season. As Fat Albert said earlier this week, these last few weeks are important, and he meant that it is important for us to turn around the losing culture and get back to respectability; one modest step taken in that direction today.

(Image courtesy of the AP via espn.com)