Showing posts with label Hanta Yo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hanta Yo. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Caps/Habs: What We've Learned Through Three Games

Since we're at about the midway point of this series no matter how it turns out, let's see what we've learned so far, with the Caps leading 2-1.

Tomas Fleischmann is even more worthless in the playoffs than he is in the regular season.

We're gonna have to run through this one game by game:

-Game 1: 0 goals, 0 assists, 1 shot on goal, -1 rating in 16:21 of ice time, 2:59 of which came on the PP. Was set up on at least two occasions in front of the net, unable to bury backhands past Jaroslav Halak. Going 50% on 10 draws was the only positive for Fleischmann in this one.

-Game 2: 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 shot on goal, +1 rating in 15:18 of ice time, 3:09 of which came on the PP and 1:20 on the PK. This was by far Flash's most productive game of the series, which isn't saying much. He sprung Eric Fehr on a breakaway for the first goal of the game, essentially a layup pass after Montreal's turnover in the Caps' defensive zone. Otherwise, Flash was practically non-existent.

-Game 3: 0 goals, 0 assists, 2 shots on goal, even rating in 15:14 of ice time, 4:09 of which came on the severely struggling PP and 0:29 on the PK. Game 3 was easily Flash's worst of the series. He made three consecutive awful plays for the Caps: 1) an atrocious offensive zone penalty; 2) failure to shoot the puck from right outside the crease, instead missing the trailer pass to Semin, leading to a Montreal 2 on 1 the other way; 3) fanning on a shot from the point, leading to another odd man rush for Montreal.

While his playing time is ever so slowly decreasing, the fact that he's even seeing 15 minutes per game is perplexing. Especially when you consider that...

Eric Fehr has been an absolute monster in minimal ice time.

This one we actually learned in the regular season, as Fehr was once again in elite company in goals per 60 minutes of ice time. It's always nice when these stats are backed up in the playoffs, and that is exactly what Fehr has been doing. I can say confidently that he is the Caps' best forechecker. Two examples: 1) his goal in Game 3, where he banked a pass to himself off the left sideboards, laid it off for Brooks Laich, crashed the net, and buried the rebound; 2) Laich's goal in game 3, where Fehr deftly played the puck along the wall behind the net while absorbing contact, skated to the front of the cage, and screened Halak as Laich shot the puck into the back of the net. Players like these win you playoff games, and Fehr's aggressive and effective forechecking may be the best way to beat the trap. I never thought I'd say this, but the two Alex's could learn a thing or two from Eric Fehr.

The Montreal goaltending is easily beatable.

Jaroslav Halak: 1-2, 4.07, .887. A shaky glove hand. A shaky water bottle hand. Has allowed 9 goals in his last 50 minutes of play! Most likely will be benched in Game 4 for...

Carey Price: 0-0, 3.87, .913. These numbers come in limited ice time (31 minutes in Game 3) so take them with a grain of salt. His regular season numbers against the Caps might be more telling: 2-1-1, 3.39, .899.

There's no use in being quiet anymore: the sleeping giant hath awaken, and the pressure is all on Halak and Price to put it to bed.

The Power Play is struggling mightily but it does NOT need an overhaul.

The raw stats are ugly: 0 for 14, including a horrendous 0-7 clip in last night's Game 3. It almost seems as though Montreal is getting more scoring chances on our PP than we are, and a lot of that blame has to be pinned on pointmen Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green. When they are not getting shots off from the point, the power play is just not the same. Countless times in Game 3 Nicklas Backstrom had the puck near the right faceoff circle, looking for his pointmen to thread a pass to. But the pass was never there, and as much as we'd like Backstrom to shoot the puck in that situation every single time, he's just not going to do it. Bruce Boudreau seemed fed up with Alex Ovechkin's point play at various points in the game, electing instead to play Joe Corvo and move Ovie down low, a wise decision if you ask me. This will eliminate some of the turnovers and simplify the power play, as Corvo has no problems firing shot after shot from the point. I predict a breakout game for the power play unit in Game 4. And maybe, just maybe, some of Flash's power play minutes will be replaced by Eric Fehr.

Canadiens fans who booed the American National Anthem are a disgrace.

I wasn't at Game 1 or Game 2 at the Verizon Center, so I'm not 100% on this, but I doubt many people in the crowd were booing the Canadian National Anthem. Habs fans booing the Star Spangled Banner doesn't even make sense, anyway! It's not like the Caps are flooded with American players. In fact, there is only one fewer American player on the Habs (Gionta, Gomez, Gil) than on the Caps (Poti, Corvo, Carlson, Steckel), unless John Carlson counts as three players, which he might. Just truly classless by the Bell Centre fans.

Warning to the NHL: Semyon Varlamov has returned.

Absolutely phenomenal performance by Varlamov to stand on his head (especially in the first period) in front of a raucous Bell Centre crowd. The Caps seemed overwhelmed in the first period, almost reeling a bit, and Varlamov kept them in the game until Boyd Gordon was able to subdue the crowd and kill any momentum with his shorthanded goal.

Uh-oh, NHL?

One of my few bold predictions that came true, Varlamov started Game 3 and crushed it. He will start Game 4, and if the Caps win, he'll start Game 5. Sorry, Theo. You just don't match up well with the Canadians for whatever reason.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs is far and away the best postseason in all of sports.

But you knew that already, right? Right. Play this on repeat if you don't...or if you do.
 

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Caps vs. Canadiens: Five Bold Predictions

Perhaps not all of these are bold predictions, but a lot of them are baseless! So I'll format them in bold just in case the distinction isn't clear.

1. The Caps PK unit will surprise you - in a good way.

Second best PP at 21.8% versus 25th ranked PK at 78.8%. Allowing 5 PP goals in 14 opportunities in head to head matchups with the Canadiens on the year. Mismatch, you say? On paper, yes. But something tells me the Caps PK unit will buckle down. It has to. Bruce Boudreau will make the adjustments necessary to thwart the Habs' power play, which will most likely be missing the services of former Cap and PP specialist Glen Metropolit for the entire series, out with a separated shoulder. Jose Theodore will be the Caps' best penalty killer, a little extra motivation not hurting his cause. Which brings me to my next point...

2. Semyon Varlamov will start at least one game.

Not because Theodore will struggle; rather, because Bruce Boudreau has stuck with a system all year, rotating his goalies in and out even during hot streaks, and that system led to 54 wins and a team record 121 points. If it ain't broke, why try to fix it? If I'm a betting man, Varlamov starts Game 3 in Montreal, the site of his NHL debut, a 2-1 Caps victory.

3. Eric Belanger will be a healthy scratch at some point.

He's currently slotted as the 3rd line center between Eric Fehr and Jason Chimera, a role he's well suited for. But Belanger never got into an offensive groove with the Caps, aside from his sweet goal in the last game of the season and a nice cross ice pass to Tomas Fleischman in OT against the Canes. Six points in 17 games while logging over 14 minutes of ice time is a massive underachievement for a guy like Belanger, even if the Caps offense does not necessarily need him to score. With Brendan Morrison likely on the bench for Game 1, Belanger is replaceable should he struggle.

4. The "other Alex" will be the most dominant player on the ice.

Alex Semin's career playoff numbers: 21 games played, 8 goals, 14 assists. The maddening inconsistencies we're accustomed to seeing from Sasha in the regular season usually dissipate in the postseason. As strange as it sounds, he almost seems to relish the physical play in the playoffs. It brings out the best in him because it focuses him. Alex Ovechkin will garner most of the attention, and rightfully so, but Alex Semin will quietly be the Caps best offensive player. Count on it.

5. John Carlson will play like a seasoned veteran.

He has been for quite some time. You'd suspect a rookie in his first playoff experience, especially one with only 22 NHL games to his credit, to make a few mistakes that you simply attribute to youth and nerves. Don't expect this from Carlson. He plays with maturity well beyond his years and is already one of the Caps' top four defensemen (if not higher), even if his minutes don't necessarily reflect this. Without any power play time, don't expect many points. What you should expect are crisp passes, solid defensive positioning, and physical play that make you scratch your head and say, "Why the hell is Tom Poti skating 6 more minutes per night than John Carlson?!" Oh, and maybe just one unbelievably clutch goal.





Bonus Prediction: Caps in 6.


Let's do this. Hanta yo.