Caps vs. Canadiens: Five Bold Predictions

Perhaps not all of these are bold predictions, but a lot of them are baseless! So I'll format them in bold just in case the distinction isn't clear.

1. The Caps PK unit will surprise you - in a good way.

Second best PP at 21.8% versus 25th ranked PK at 78.8%. Allowing 5 PP goals in 14 opportunities in head to head matchups with the Canadiens on the year. Mismatch, you say? On paper, yes. But something tells me the Caps PK unit will buckle down. It has to. Bruce Boudreau will make the adjustments necessary to thwart the Habs' power play, which will most likely be missing the services of former Cap and PP specialist Glen Metropolit for the entire series, out with a separated shoulder. Jose Theodore will be the Caps' best penalty killer, a little extra motivation not hurting his cause. Which brings me to my next point...

2. Semyon Varlamov will start at least one game.

Not because Theodore will struggle; rather, because Bruce Boudreau has stuck with a system all year, rotating his goalies in and out even during hot streaks, and that system led to 54 wins and a team record 121 points. If it ain't broke, why try to fix it? If I'm a betting man, Varlamov starts Game 3 in Montreal, the site of his NHL debut, a 2-1 Caps victory.

3. Eric Belanger will be a healthy scratch at some point.

He's currently slotted as the 3rd line center between Eric Fehr and Jason Chimera, a role he's well suited for. But Belanger never got into an offensive groove with the Caps, aside from his sweet goal in the last game of the season and a nice cross ice pass to Tomas Fleischman in OT against the Canes. Six points in 17 games while logging over 14 minutes of ice time is a massive underachievement for a guy like Belanger, even if the Caps offense does not necessarily need him to score. With Brendan Morrison likely on the bench for Game 1, Belanger is replaceable should he struggle.

4. The "other Alex" will be the most dominant player on the ice.

Alex Semin's career playoff numbers: 21 games played, 8 goals, 14 assists. The maddening inconsistencies we're accustomed to seeing from Sasha in the regular season usually dissipate in the postseason. As strange as it sounds, he almost seems to relish the physical play in the playoffs. It brings out the best in him because it focuses him. Alex Ovechkin will garner most of the attention, and rightfully so, but Alex Semin will quietly be the Caps best offensive player. Count on it.

5. John Carlson will play like a seasoned veteran.

He has been for quite some time. You'd suspect a rookie in his first playoff experience, especially one with only 22 NHL games to his credit, to make a few mistakes that you simply attribute to youth and nerves. Don't expect this from Carlson. He plays with maturity well beyond his years and is already one of the Caps' top four defensemen (if not higher), even if his minutes don't necessarily reflect this. Without any power play time, don't expect many points. What you should expect are crisp passes, solid defensive positioning, and physical play that make you scratch your head and say, "Why the hell is Tom Poti skating 6 more minutes per night than John Carlson?!" Oh, and maybe just one unbelievably clutch goal.





Bonus Prediction: Caps in 6.


Let's do this. Hanta yo.

Nicklas Backstrom's Shift in Five Frames

Nicklas Backstrom's second shift of overtime began when he hopped the boards with 2:40 remaining in yesterday's Ovechkin-less 4-3 comeback victory over Chicago. His shift begins innocently enough, as he sends a feed by Mike Green wide of Antti Niemi from the slot.

The puck comes back down ice before it's turned over in the Washington zone by Chicago's Troy Brouwer; Backstrom recovers the loose puck and skates toward center, when he slows and waits for his line-mates to complete a shift change. Brouwer reads Backstrom's intent beautifully, intercepts his attempted pass and breaks in on José Theodore.

Here's where one of the season's best shifts becomes special.

Now 40 seconds into his shift, Backstrom turns tail and back-checks ferociously, intercepting Brouwer just as he reaches the front of the net.

In one swift motion, Backstrom lifts Brouwer's stick and clears the puck from danger by banging it toward the vacant corner. Even though Tom Poti is closer to the loose puck, Backstrom accelerates in front of Poti and collects the carom off the dasher.

Backstrom builds up a head of steam through the neutral zone. After that near-fatal turnover and 45 seconds into his shift, Backstrom might have been tempted to dump the puck for a line change. But he knows Brouwer and Dustin Byfuglien are trapped in his wake while Chicago's D are in the middle of a change. With plenty of room through center and Poti and Mike Knuble on his flanks, he decides to push it.

Poti and Knuble drive toward the net on the 3-on-2 while Backstrom dangles the puck in front of Brent Seabrook, inducing him to sprawl for an attempted shot block. Seabrook's Canadian Olympic teammate Duncan Keith is preoccupied by the onrushing Poti and Knuble, while the backchecking Byfuglien is too slow to do anything but watch. Backstrom toe-drags around a kneeling Seabrook and has a lane to the net the size of West Madison Street. Keith realizes this an instant too late.

Backstrom slips the puck between the legs of Niemi just before he's cleaned out by Byfuglien. It might never have happened had Brouwer not intercepted Backstrom's pass in the neutral zone.

Shifts like these mean everything to the Capitals, who showed a national television audience they have another superstar whose name isn't Alex.

It also means two things in particular to Backstrom: more Selke talk and more dollar signs.

[Thanks to YouTube user OvechkinW for uploading the video]

Do You Realize How Good Nicklas Backstrom Is?

After Ovechkin received his game-misconduct early in the 1st period today, the NBC announcers left the Caps for dead. They kept harping on how this is Ovi's team, and they lacked spark without him, and the outlook seemed hopeless, and yada yada yada. All of it was true. One salient fact was overlooked, however: Nicklas Backstrom was on the ice.

There are a handful players in hockey who you can tell immediately what kind of game they're going to have; but only a few where you can tell that kind of game is going to involve total domination. Backstrom is one of those elite few, and he had that jump in his step today. The announcers didn't seem to realize this.

Even through the sluggish first two periods, he was the most noticeable player on the ice. He skated hard every shift, challenged the vaunted 'Hawks defensive corps one-on-one and had the puck on a string all game long. When it mattered most he grinded out an ugly rebound goal to cut the deficit to 1. Then in OT, he stifled a 'Hawks scoring chance on the doorstep and turned it up ice before absolutely OWNING two Canadian Olympians (Seabrook and Keith) with a curl-and-drag for the game-winner. Oh and he added an assist for good measure.

Backstrom is one of only two NHL players in the top 5 in points, assists and +/-. He is quietly one of the best defensive forwards in the league. He won a completely unwinnable game almost single-handedly. When Eric Belanger skated off the ice after the game, he told Pierre McGuire: "we never did that in Minnesota." That's because you never had a guy like Nicklas Backstrom on your team. Ovechkin for good reason overshadows him, but world, you are on notice: Nicklas Backstrom is an unstoppable hockey machine too.

Welcome to the Squad, Scottie

Put yourself in the shoes of a Boston Bruins fan for a moment, if you will. Quickly get over your disgusting beer gut, bald head and poor hygiene and imagine it is May 10, 2009, Game 5 of the East Semifinals against the Carolina Hurricanes. You're up 4-0 and sitting pretty. Out of nowhere, some little fourth-line weasel sucker punches one of your top 4 blueliners. WHAT A ####### &*%#)*&@ BASTARD!! you think. HE'LL DEFINITELY BE SUSPENDED.



It will only get worse my bizarrely accented friend. Because the arbitrary wheel of NHL justice decided to kick your Nomaaah-lovin' butts where it hurts: no suspension. Now cut to overtime of game 7 when that same said weasel decides to score his first ever playoff goal and end your magical season forever and ever:



Ladies and gentlemen of Boston, Scott Walker just owned you. Ok, now you can be a Caps fan again.

On thursday night Mr. Walker, a.k.a. Wild Thing, just welcomed himself to D.C. with total awesomeness. In his first game in the red, white and blue, Walker notched two late third period goals, both of which were grind-em-out backhanded rebounds, one of which served as the game-winner against a hungry Tampa Bay team that had just clawed its way back into the game.

These are exactly the types of goals the Scott Walkers of the world are paid to score. The ones that happen when you need them most, when you least expect them, and by the guy the other team wants to squash like a bug. He is precisely the type of fourth-line spark plug who kicks butt in the playoffs. Eric Belanger, Joe Corvo and Milan Jurcina are technically better players, but Scott Walker might prove to be the most valuable trade deadline addition. Between he and Matt Bradley other teams will have their hands full with the feisty clutch grinder department.

There are certain hockey players who make you think "I hate that guy...but I'd love to have him on my team." Scott Walker is one of those guys. Welcome aboard, Scottie.

[Image via Getty/ESPN]

The Perfect Day of Hockey - The Symbolic Hit

USA wins, Ovie crushes Jagr, Backstrom scores, and Crosby stinks, what else can I ask for? We've had some great days of hockey recently, but in case you have been living in a bombshelter, the American men pulled off a major upset of Canada, 5-3, thanks to 42 saves from Ryan Miller. I know, I know, not everyone around is rooting for the most powerful country in the world, but most of us Caps fans are American, and have to dislike Canada for keeping Mike Green off of the team. This is only the first round, so lets not begin putting this in the same sentence as 'the Miracle on Ice', which pitted amateurs against pros in a knockout game. But for us DC fans, seeing team Canada crash and burn without the help of Mike Green is sweet; it also is satisfying to see the guy who made the team ahead of LamborGreeny, Drew Doughty, somehow lead Canada in ice time and generate nothing on the scoresheet except for a -1. Even sweeter is seeing Sidney Crosby post an embarrassing -3, which included deflecting the first American goal into his own net. You know what I realized tonight? I am happy Crosby is not American, so I don't ever have to cross my allegiances because of him.

On top of that, Ovie is making headlines for his open-ice destruction of Jaromir Jagr.

This massacre is already being called "The Hit", which is funny because the play is not something completely out of the ordinary for the best hockey player in the world. My favorite part of the hit is not just that Ovie is garnering all the love for being a badass, but that he crushed Jaromir freakin' Jagr, aka public enemy #2 of Caps fans, behind Crosby. Of all the players in the world, Jagr may even be the guy I want Ovie to crush the most; the beautiful symbolism of the Caps successful present and bright future crushing the bad memory of the past is just too perfect.

Note: the original video posted was removed, the best clip I could find is the attached one and I have no idea why a cat playing the piano is involved.

(Image courtesy of media.nj.com)

The Caps, In Video Form

That's 10 in a row now. Ten wins against good teams, great teams, Cup champs, bad teams, bubble teams, desperate teams, lazy teams, hard-working teams, defensive teams, offensive teams, hot goalies, smart coaches and all teams between. And most of them in dominating fashion.

They're 12-1 since Ovie was named captain. On a game like today's you just knew he'd come through with the GWG when it was 2-2 in the third.

Let's hope the Olympic break doesn't derail this momentum. I can't remember a world where the Caps looked beatable.

Confessions of a Half-Hearted Wizards Fan

So Gilbert Arenas has been suspended for the remainder of the 2009-2010 NBA season. Who cares?

I might have had a different response had this news dropped between the year 2005 and October 27, 2009 which was the last time I was hopeful about the Wizards as a playoff caliber team. Man did they look good that day. Teamwork, ball movement, defense, scoring depth, consistency and, most importantly, a dominant Alpha Dog: Agent Zero looked like he was back!

In the modern NBA, if you don't have that, you have nothing. I've painstakingly constructed this Rico Fantastic-style chart* of NBA squads over the last 20 years who have won it all without a top-5 player:

Team Season
Pistons 2003-2004

*Chart not scientific.

I thought Gilbert could be that top-5 guy the Wizards never had. Due to some freakish psychosis, Gil has always been at his best when he is pissed, which he's found reason to be throughout his career. He was knocking on that top-5 door before his injury; I was certain as of October that he would emerge from his latest bout of adversity ready to knock that door down for good. I took his media silence to mean quiet determination.

He seemed pissed at the world, didn't he? Am I alone on this? I was ready to witness (pardon the term) his final leap from shoot-first All-Star to transcendent team player: the guy who made everyone around him better, unafraid to put away the slow-bleeders with a 3-point dagger, game winning steal, or to sink those 4th quarter foul shots courtesy of the NBA's star-treatment system. If for no other reason than to show us wrong.

The days when hope reigned. *sigh*

That same freakish psychosis I hoped would mature him into the best instead manifested itself as immaturity that has made him, frankly, the worst. The worst teammate, the worst defensive player in the league, the worst franchise player in a league riddled with terrible ones, and now the worst contract. Instead of taking advantage of the deepest roster and best coach he has ever had, he let his weakest of his teammates bring out his dark side. Even before the guns it was clear this season that I'd be wrong. The gun incident confirmed it; this suspension is just another drop in the bucket.

Without that hope, I can't bring myself to care about the Wizards anymore. It's the nature of the NBA. Any other sport there is always hope for next year. Without LeBron or Kobe or Wade or Duncan there is none in basketball. With the Caps currently bludgeoning the league into submission, I've got enough to occupy my fan energy, anyways. I'm drooling like a Pavlovian dog at the latest Redskins off-season hire previous negativity notwithstanding. I'm busy. So someone wake me when the Wizards luck into the next NBA Superstar. Until then...yawn.

Whew! That Was Close

The Nationals got it done, as 1st overall pick Stephen Strasburg agreed to terms at literally the 11th hour: 4 years, $15.67 million. The deadline was midnight last night.

The cash monies blew away the previous record contract doled out to a draft pick ($10.5 million for Mark Prior), and yet, Scott Boras is crying and stomping around his office like mommy wouldn't let him get rainbow sprinkles on his ice cream. Com-pro-mize?

And now, consider me a Nats fan. Where do I get my membership card?

Loser Red Sox Fans Leave Camden Yards in Shame After Historic O's Comeback: Birds 11, Sawx 10

That made my week.

Nick Markickass hit a go-ahead two-run double in the bottom of the 8th to cap the O's 9 run comeback Tuesday night, the largest since the franchise became the Baltimore Orioles. And it couldn't have come against a better team, literally, karmically and schadenfreude-ally.

The Sawx thought they had this in the bag and were all smug about it. In the bottom of the 5th 6th they jogged back to the dugout after two outs thinking it was their turn to bat, and had a teeheehahahahhaLOL good laugh about the blunder, but not so fast you arrogant fucks. A pair of five-run Orioles innings in the 7th and 8th did them in, and it felt great. That kind of abrupt explosion usually does for me.

And Wieters was a part of it this time. In an eerie repeat of a recent scenario against the Mets, he came to the plate with the bases loaded and the O's down 10-6. Tonight he came through with the RBI single instead of a GIDP to cut the Sawx lead to 3. Clutch.

The O's won't be contenders for awhile, so these are the kinds of wins we cherish in the meantime: 10-run comebacks with hordes of invading fans in the stands dying a little on the inside. And that's the beauty of baseball, isn't it? Watching the enemy die on the inside slowly and painfully during hour long 8th innings. It must have felt like forever for them. I don't know what that's like, because I root for a team that only gives up 6-run leads usually.

[Image via AP/Nick Wass]

Obligatory Matt Wieters Update

Baseball Jesus' season splits, courtesy of ESPN and the buttons on my keyboard that when pushed together perform a "print screen" function:


He's clearly starting to get big league pitching, and he seems to be more comfortable (at least based on these stats) from the left side of the plate. It took a little longer than expected, but as we mentioned earlier, anything he does this year is purely a bonus.

If he continues to play like he has the past week - .333/.368/.778, 2 HR, 6RBI, and one clutch rally-starting double - for an extended period of time, I see no reason why he can't walk away with AL Rookie of the Year Honors.

And here I am getting ahead of myself.

March of the Prospects Continues: O's Sweep Jays thanks to Reimold's 3-run Walk-Off

It's a walk-off.

Rookie LF Nolan Reimold (4 HRs in 13 games!?!) blasted a 3-run shot in the bottom of the 11th to send the reeling Jays back to Toronto with their 9th straight loss. That's the second day in two in which a rookie Oriole totally kicked some Blue Jay butt, after pitching prospect Jason Berken gave up 2 runs in 5 IPs to beat the Jays on Tuesday. Reimold, quite the bargain at his $0 salary this year (no wonder Angelos likes him) is making O's fans forget about Larry Bigbie and salivate over the prospect of a Markickass, Jones, Reimold outfield for the next decade.

Fellow rookie and baseball volunteer (really, ESPN? $0 salaries?) David Hernandez is set to make his pitching debut tomorrow against Detroit, marking the 47th time this year an O's pitching prospect has debuted thanks to their historically shitty starting rotation. But as they say, necessity is the mother of invention, and the O's are currently inventing a dynasty built on a rich prospect pool and Baseball Jesus. You listening Lerner?

Oh and for the heathens out there, Baseball Jesus = Matt Wieters, and if you haven't yet found a branch at which to worship yet consider the Landing Strip your newest freshest connection to Him. Did we mention we're excited for Friday?

[Pic via AP by way of ESPN.com]

ZAUN Wins One for Baltimore: O's 4, Jays 1

In legendary fashion, Gregg ZAUN hit a tie-breaking game-winning RBI single in the 4th inning on Sunday, sending 800 Orioles' fans home happy on a rainy Memorial Day.

ZAUN reached base 3 times in all against his former team, inducing a walk and getting hit by a pitch to go along with his clutch 4th-ininning single. In the process, he managed to raise his BA from .210 to .215, putting what some might call a stranglehold on the starting catcher position. Sorry, Chad Moeller.

ZAUN declined to comment for this post, but made me promise to plug his website. Reminder to pump up the volume.

Additional thoughts on the game:

• The Jeremy Guthrie we've embraced as our "ace by default" for the last couple years finally showed up. It was only his 3rd Quality Start of the year. He had 19 last year. It'd be nice if he put together a few more of those, no?
• George Sherrill hasn't let up a run in 9 consecutive appearances. Don't worry, though - the trade deadline is two months away. Ample time for him to tank and decrease his value.
• Melvin Mora is a very mediocre defensive third baseman. He is also a very mediocre offensive third baseman. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Baltimore Orioles!
• You get the feeling Markakis and Jones are cooling off a little. If I were Dave Trembley I'd swap their places in the lineup and see what it does for them. Markakis was great in the 2 spot last year, and Jones' gap power could pay huge dividends hitting behind him and Roberts.
• ZAUN.

Next up: Toronto (Romero) @ Baltimore (Undecided), 5/26, 7:05 PM