We are all Witnesses to Something Special

There are great debuts, and there are times when you know that you are watching something special; amidst the unprecedented hype, Stephen Strasburg stepped up and delivered a performance worthy of telling my grandkids. Sure, he did this against the perpetually awful Pittsburgh Pirates, but this was not like any debut that has been witnessed by any of us. He got stronger as the game went on and his 4-pitch repertoire and absurd velocity simply overwhelmed the opposition. He struck out the last 7 batters he faced, and 9 of the last 10, and finished with 14 Ks in 7 innings, and no BBs. He really only had 1 bad inning, in which he gave up 2 hits before the HR, but only had 1 other ball hit extremely hard the entire game (by the first batter he faced). He tied for the most Ks in one game this season, and had the first 14+ K/0 BB game, I believe ESPN said, since 2007.

The stats just don't do justice though to what we just witnessed. This was no fluke, Strasburg is an immediate star worthy of every ounce of hype. My choice of the word 'witness' is no coincidence, as the last time I can remember someone having a debut so unprecedented was that of Lebron James. Before King James, every high school draftee had taken 2-3 years to become at least a solid NBA player. It was pretty clear that something special was being 'born' when Lebron went off for a 25-9-6 line in his first game, and made it appear like this was going to be pretty standard for him.

I am proud to say I was in the building tonight, and although Nats fans did their best to dampen the experience by booing obvious called balls and not understanding the rhythm of strikeout claps, I know I witnessed a special performance, and one that will be the first of many by Stephen Strasburg.

(Image courtesy of media.timesleader.com)

Top-5 Most Popular DC Athletes Right Now

I know, I know, this post has already been run by Steinz over at the WaPo (a voting in which I participated), but SB Nation DC also had a list today, so I thought it would only be fair to jump on the bandwagon and chime-in.

The term 'popular' is left vague so there is room for interpretation, but here is how I define it - as a combination of recognize-ability (name recognition), and being well liked; I believe that a notorious person can still be popular. My initial list for Steinz a few weeks ago was this:

1. Ovechkin
2. McNabb
3. Orakpo
4. Backstrom
5. Zimmerman

My logic:

• Ovie is widely known and loved and has to be #1. That said, the overwhelming popularity of the Redskins in this town pushes football players to greater heights. I realize McNabb has not played a game, but he is more widely recognized than Ovechkin; as Chad Dukes and Lavar Arrington said on WFAN a month or so ago, if you put McNabb and Ovie in a mall, McNabb would be the one who more easily creates a mini-riot. As much as I hate him and that the Skins acquired him, he is a close #2.
• I skipped Portis and Gil because I thought they were not generally well liked.
• I should have replaced Rak with Cooley, but thought Cooley's injury removed him from the spotlight too much.
• Strasburg had not played a game and was not as widely recognized as he is right now.
  
• Backstrom was fresh off of a season where the Caps elevated themselves to the #2 team in the DMV, so was very newsworthy.
  

Ah, how quickly things change......my list for today would look like this:

1. Ovie
2. McNabb
3. Cooley
4. Portis
5. Strasburg
6. Backstrom
   

• I ranked 6 because at this moment, Strasburg is #5, but his hype will likely die down after about 2 months, and I expect him to drop a few slots. The only way he stays that high is if he puts up All-Star/Cy Young candidate numbers immediately. When
  
• Rak was a mistake the first time, I should have put Cooley in that spot; Rak is just not as widely known as the man formerly known as Captain Chaos.
• Portis is not completely well-liked, but my Dad, who is not a sports fan, knows him, which puts him in select company.
• Ryan Zimmerman is having a terrific season but struggling for All-Star votes, so it is hard to put him anywhere near my top-5 anymore. He just isn't widely recognized, and won't be until the Nats contend, or he does something outlandish like gets a tattoo on his face.

My only major differentiation from the Steinz and SBNDC lists are the omission of Gilbert Arenas, but come on, isn't he closer to the least popular athlete in DC? I can see John Wall, London Fletcher, and Mike Green pushing for honors, but I think that list of 6 is head and shoulders above the rest right now.

(Image courtesy of misterirrelevant.com)

There's A New Site You Should Check Out...

It's called SB Nation DC, and it is le awesome. Be sure to stop by and stay a while, as I will be contributing as the weeknight editor there.

Again, apologies for the lack of substantive posting here recently. Real world jobs, trips to Vegas, my DC Landing Strip salary ($0), that damn blister on my foot, the fact that it's the summer, and preparation for SB Nation DC have set me back quite a bit.

But you're not a complainer, so go take a John Wall shot. Blue vodka, sprite, and sour mix. It's as bad as it sounds.

Oriole Cavalry Update: Hope or Blue Balls?

Don't look now, while the world is busy waiting for pitching Jesus to grace Nationals Park, the Orioles have quietly cut the deficit behind the Astros to 2.5 games.........for last place in the entire league. Although we have the inside track on the #1 pick in 2011, there does not appear to be a Bryce Harper or pitching Jesus. There has to be hope somewhere, right?!?

Let's see, the OPS's of Ma-not-so-kickass, Pacman, and Baseball Jesus, and Nolan Reimold currently sit at .839, .674, and .656 and .639. Nope, those aren't slugging % figures, those are slugging + on-base %......kill me. I've started calling Baseball Jesus "Blue Balls", because I get so excited to watch him hit every time, and all he's brought me is disappointment and pain. Even the O's top-2 hitting prospects are struggling at triple-A!

I do have some hope though, in the form of the cavalry, the O's bevy of pitching prospects that are poised to lead us to the promised land (aka slightly ahead of the Blue Jays). Here is a list of the talented group:

Brian Matusz - After a hot start, he has cooled-down considerably, but is still posting a better than 2:1 K-to-BB ratio, while allowing less than 1 HR every 10 innings. He is still just 23, and still looks like he will be an absolute beast. Now we just need 3-4 more starters and 9 hitters and we'll have something....The nickname Obi-Won for being our only hope still fits pretty damn well.

Brad Bergeson - Huuuuge disappointment here. I didn't exactly have him pinned as a future star, but thought we had a #3-4 starter after last year. His K/BB ratio has plummeted from 2.03 to 0.81, not good. He's also given up 8 HRs in 9 starts, whereas he gave up 11 in 19 starts last year. He is also just 24, but this is a large step in the wrong direction.

David Hernandez - Just put him in the bullpen already, he dominates the minors and gets shelled in the bigs. His funky delivery can only play in the pen.

Chris Tillman - The former #1 prospect of this group pretty thoroughly dominated triple-A to the tune of almost a 4/1 K-to-BB ratio. He still is susceptible to the long ball, which was evident in him giving up 2 HRs in his debut this season, but I know am moderately interested to watch at least 2 out of every 5 O's games.

Jake Arrieta - His star faded a bit last year, but that is a distant memory now. In a recent ESPN Insider article, he was listed as the #9 prospect for the remainder of this season. His K/BB ratio is only slightly below 2.0, but he has made up for it by only allowing 3 HRs in 71 innings of work (or as the ESPN.com guy who probably hasn't watched him play said, 'he's keeping the ball down'). He will be up this season for a look eventually, which will mean all of our 'big 3' will be up, and maybe to stay by the end of the year.

Troy Patton - He has been more of the same at triple-A, a 2:1 K-to-BB ratio and a low KK rate. The problem is that he has been giving up a lot of HRs this year, so is not ready for the bigs just yet, and definitely not ready to be the 4th or 5th starter on the O's next championship team. Yeah, I said it.....He is turning 25 this year, so the clock is starting to tick....

Brandon Erbe - He has a similar line to Patton, but an astounding 0-8 record. Fortunately, that is only slightly worse than the usual record for the MLB O's, so not a concern. He is only 22, but still is likely a bullpen guy long term.

Zach Britton - Arguably a better prospect than Tillman or Arrieta, he is 22 and doing just fine thank you at double-A. He is not ready for the big time, posting just over a 2/1 K-to-BB ratio and 4 HRs allowed in 59.2 innings. Remember that Britton is the same age as Erbe, just without the arm problems and crazy delivery.

It is still hard to say how any of these guys will turn out (see Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, and any pitching prospect ever), but you still have to think that from Matusz, Tillman, Britton, and Arrieta we have the makings of a strong and cheap future rotation. Now if Blue Balls could go back to being Jesus.....

(Stats courtesy of espn.com, Norfolk Tides website, and Bowie Baysox website. Image courtesy of Baltimoresun.com)

Jake Arrieta Throws Stinky Cheddar Cheese

Because MASN sucks, I can't embed the video here. Why the hell would they want free advertising on UNBELIEVABLY POPULAR blogs such as this?

So here's the link to a little video profile of Jake Arrieta's pitching repertoire.

He's been impressive this season, to say the least, going 6-2 with a 1.77 ERA in AAA Norfolk in 11 starts.

Can he save the Orioles? Ha, nobody can!

But it's worth noting that he's gassy. He's got that "cheeeeeese. Theeeeeeeeee stinkyyyyyyyyy cheddarrrrrrrrr!"

Livan Hernandez: Strikeout Pitcher Extraordinare

First off, we apologize for the lack of anything resembling even a short blog post recently. Work duties call for all. I'd like to say it will never happen again, but who am I kidding? It probably will.

Livan Hernandez has never been considered a "strikeout pitcher". His effectiveness, especially in the late stage of his career, has been largely due to some craftiness, tough off-speed stuff, and the thing people like to call "intangibles" because they don't really know what it is. He just gets it done, simple as that.

So last night, as I was watching the first half of the Nats-Giants tilt, I was amazed as I saw Livan register 4 K's through 4 innings of work.

The strikeout pitches lacked...what is that word? Heat. They lacked heat, to say the very least.

I went onto MLB.com for confirmation. What exactly was he throwing? Why couldn't Juan Uribe hit anything?!

K1 (Aubrey Huff, looking): 70 MPH curveball
K2 (Juan Uribe, swinging): 64 MPH curveball
K3 (Andres Torres, swinging): 79 MPH changeup
K4 (Juan Uribe, swinging): 65 MPH curveball

Let's for a moment forget that Livan had his first forgettable outing of the season. I guess he was due.

What non-knuckle-ball pitcher incorporates so much off-speed stuff in his repertoire? Nobody as effective as Livan, and that's why we love his guts.

Wizards Biggest Win Since 1978

The Wizards won the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery. They had a 10% chance (5th best odds). That means that something unexpected and good happened to DC sports, instead of predictable and bad. I am speechless. Thus the short sentences and lack of exclamation points. John Wall, welcome to DC.

Sidney Crosby is a Choke Picasso

So let's get this straight.

Ovechkin scored 5 goals, 5 assists and was a +5 against the Canadiens in 7 games, before bowing out in Game 7 at home in a tight one-goal game. The Caps blew a 3-1 series lead. As a result, notable national media members called Ovechkin a choke artist (Wilbon, on PTI).

Crosby scored 1 goal, 4 assists and was a -1 against the Canadiens in 7 games, before bowing out in Game 7 at home while being dominated 5-2, in which he took an awful penalty early allowing Montreal to open the scoring with a PP goal. The Pens blew a 3-2 series lead. Notable national media members have yet to weigh in. So allow me to fill in the gap.

If Ovechkin's performance makes him a choke artist, and Crosby's performance was marginal - nay, fractional - by comparison, and against the same Canadiens team playing WITHOUT THEIR 4 BEST DEFENSEMEN, doesn't that make Crosby a CHOKE PICASSO!?!? You know my answer.

Sidney Crosby: Choke Picasso. Seen with two of his lesser-known works: Malkin and Fleury.

UPDATE: Since the point of this post is being horribly misconstrued, I'll state it explicitly: it's absurd to pin team successes and failures on one player, isn't it? You can't give Crosby the credit for winning a Cup and a Gold in order to deride Ovechkin for choking, unless you're also willing to blame Crosby entirely for the Pens losing. There is a logical fluidity here that the anonymous fly-by Pens fans are having trouble with in the comments. Consider yourself learned.

Habs @ Pens: OMG, Who Do I Root For?!

The Penguins of course, because as a Caps fan, if you root for a team in an important Game 7, all your hopes and dreams will inevitably fall from their comfortable perch on Cloud 9 and shatter into a million tiny little pieces on the asphalt.

But if I root for the Penguins half-heartedly, the Hockey Gods will surely pick up on my agenda and the Penguins will win!

Then root for the Canadiens, so you can trick the Hockey Gods into believing you're a Penguins fan only rooting for the Canadiens because of the Game 7 dream-crushing-asphalt-cloud-9 theory mentioned above. The Canadiens will surely win!

But if I root for the Canadiens to trick the Hockey Gods into believing I'm a Penguins fan masquerading as a Canadiens fan so the Game 7 dream-crushing theory will apply and the Penguins will lose, won't I just piss said Hockey Gods off? The Penguins will surely win then!

Good point; root for the Penguins so as not to offend the Hockey Gods, but at the same time tricking them that you are a Penguins fan masquerading as a Canadiens pretending to root for the Penguins who really wants the Canadiens to win, only because of the aforementioned Game 7 dream-crushing-asphalt-cloud-9 theory.

And if the Hockey Gods figure that out, I'll be shocked. Because not only did I confuse myself and all of you, but surely them too.

Nats and O's, By the Numbers

Raise your hand if you predicted that the Nats would be three games above .500 and two games out of first place in the NL East by May 10, with their best player missing 8 games, their second best player working his way through the minors, and an imposing opening schedule to boot.

Put your hand down - you're lying and nobody can see you anyway.

What makes the Nationals' early season success so interesting is that they've seemingly switched places with the Orioles, known for their early season hot starts and infamous for their late season collapses. The Orioles sit 30th among 30 MLB teams at the moment and the season's only relative bright spot, Brian Matusz, got lit up yesterday.

How do the Nats keep winning ball games? I'm gonna unscientifically say timely hitting interspersed with the occasional quality start and an absolutely LETHAL late inning pitching combination, courtesy of Tyler Clippard and Matt Capps.

For fun, I decided to compare the Nationals and Orioles in terms of their places in the standings and their offensive and pitching statistics. MLB rankings are applied in parentheses where appropriate (click tables to enlarge).

The Nats are 2 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and 1.5 games behind the Giants for the NL Wild Card; the Orioles are 13.5 games behind the Rays in the AL East and 13 games behind the Yankees for the AL Wild Card.

**BONUS Fun Fact: The Orioles have the 2nd worst home record and the worst road record in the MLB!

Now a look at the teams' offensive outputs (ed. note: the O's actually have 107 runs but I'm too lazy to go back and fix the tables):

Both teams are far from elite offensively, but the Nats are getting on base at a much higher rate and manufacturing a lot of runs because of that. Ten of the Orioles' 30 HR have come off the bat of journeyman Ty Wigginton. Expect a regression to the mean from that guy fairly soon.

**BONUS Fun Fact: The Orioles are hitting .220 with runners in scoring position (29th in MLB) and the Nats are hitting .264 (12th in MLB)!

Finally, some pitching statistics:

Only one thing stands out here, and you can't underestimate its importance: the Nats are 13/17 in save opportunities compared to the Orioles' 6/12 mark. How many consecutive years have the bullpens of these clubs been their Achilles heels? Too many for me to even try to count. Tyler Clippard and Matt Capps have solidified the back end for the Nationals. Mike Gonzalez has solidified his position as Dany Baez 2.0 for the Orioles, a solid relief pitcher who cashed in on a good contract year and couldn't handle 9th inning pressure.

**BONUS Fun Fact: Mike Gonzalez is worthless!

***

Can the Nats keep this up? Let's hope so. Can the O's turn things around? Probably not.

But we have all summer to do nothing but find out. Thanks, Caps.