Don't Get Your Hopes Up

Finally, a Redskins offseason in the hands of a competent pair (Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen) instead of a dimwitted duo. A pair that will have a plan, implement it, draft wisely, demonstrate patience, and develop players. Or will they?

We all know that Shanahan (138-90 career W-L, 8-5 Postseason record) and Allen have been successful on their own. But can they coexist together, with Snyder, and within the NFC East? I'm not so optimistic.

The new power structure atop the Redskins organization is bizarre and disaster already foreseeable. Bruce Allen was hired as GM, but all the football decisions are being left to Shanahan. Um, what? Per Adam Schefter, who appears once every 4 minutes on ESPN, Snyder is leaving all football decisions in the hands of his two new hires. Sure, Adam. So basically, Bruce Allen is in charge of the team, except when Shanahan says otherwise, and except when Snyder decides to sign Free Agent Y for $800 million over the next 17 seasons. This is going to be fun.

And I'm not so optimistic about Shanahan as a coach/personnel guy. Shanahan inherited the Broncos Super Bowl rosters, and then after Elway retired built his teams around smaller and quicker zone-blocking offensive linemen, and zero defense. Everyone in DC is clamoring with Hogs-nostalgia for a sturdy offensive line that will take us into the 2020s. Will Shanahan adapt to the bruising NFC East style or try to impose his zone blocking scheme on it? Or will it be an awkward mix that completely fails? One offseason, the last place Browns cut their entire defensive line, and Shanahan signed them all one by one. The Broncos remain one of the league's worst defenses year-to-year, and that's all thanks to Shanahan.

When newcomers arrive in DC, fans become impatient and Snyder's deep pockets tempt those in charge to make the quick fix. But we need something different. We need a team built soundly and developed patiently. This will require three giant egos to coexist, will require Allen and Shanahan to work together towards constructing a sound and deep roster on both sides of the ball, and will require unprecedented patience on Snyder's part. Making it work won't be automatic. It will take time, and it might fail. If recent history has taught us anything, it probably will.

Don't be tempted by the big-name hire. It doesn't mean anything until we see the results.

John Carlson's OT Game Winner

To beat Canada, 6-5, in the World Junior Championship. This is one Caps prospect we are super excited about. USA, baby!

Our New Captain

Caps Half-Season Poll Results

The majority of you put the Caps in the A/A- range, with a few of you none too pleased by their recent trend (see B, B-, and C), and one asshole who is clearly a Penguins fan weighing in with his unwanted opinion (F).

The average GPA they received from DCLS viewers was a 3.57, just below an A-. In consideration of DC's misery the past decade, anything resembling this type of performance the second half of the season would be a major accomplishment.

Assuming, of course, it precedes a Stanley Cup.

Tonight: Canadiens @ Caps, 7 ET

Hoping for a Felony

A few days ago, I was about to write something on how it is time to give up on the season and this team, and start the rebuilding process. I have actually been calling for a rebuilding for the past 2 seasons, and the run of close losses to bad teams had put us at a record of 10-20, which was only 3-4 games out of a playoff spot, but about 14 games from being in contention to do anything in the playoffs.

I am of the 'championship or bust mentality' and as many of you know, the Wiz are in an awkward situation because we need to rebuild to have a chance for a championship, but have 1 albatross of a contract that is preventing us from doing so. That 1 contract, of course, belongs to a nut-job named Gilbert Arenas, aka Hibachi, aka Agent Zero (as I said, nut-job).

Outside of the Pistons a few years ago, and the Celtics a couple years ago, every NBA championship team and contender has a top-5 or top-10 player. These elite players are generally acquired at the very top of the draft, so a team stuck in mediocrity is unlikely to ever get one of these guys. My opinion has thus been that the Wiz should trade away all of the other players on the team and try to get a few pieces in place before Arenas's contract expires in 4.5 years. This method is certainly unorthodox, but at least the rebuilding effort will have started. We will have a few bad seasons and thus lottery picks through this method, and maybe will hit the jackpot in the draft lottery in the next 3 years. This rationale is why I freaked out when the Wiz essentially gave up Ricky Rubio and Dajuan Blair in the draft. Sure, we'd have some veterans, but I think Rubio and Blair could combine with Blatche, McGuire, Young, and McGee to give us a few parts of an elite rotation. When you consider that we could get even more young talent from trading Jamison, Tough Juice, and Haywood, the idea suddenly gets very exciting.

That problem is that this young core would have to play with Agent Zero, who in addition to his atrocious contract, also poses the issue of preventing the team from truly tanking enough to likely get a top draft pick. My theory/hope was that there is always the slight chance that the Wiz will somehow be able to rid themselves of Agent Zero's contract, hopefully through him playing well enough to attract anybody to take him in a trade. Now, everyone has seen the news, and I don't want to jinx anything, but Gil might actually be so stupid that after duping the Wiz into giving him this $111 million contract, he's giving us a way to get out from under all that money. You want to know my first thoughts after reading that it was Gil involved in that 'standoff'? First, I thought, 'what an idiot, this team is a train wreck', and then I thought, 'hey, will this allow us to somehow get out of Gil's contract?'

I don't exactly have a law degree, but it has been well-reported that if Gil can be pinned with a felony, then the Wiz can void his contract and jumpstart the rebuilding process. A felony seems to be a stretch, but Gil has already been in trouble with the league and law for possessing a gun, and I can always dream.

Gil has been a light in the dark of DC sports for a few years, and even provided hope while injured, but I can't help but root against him here. Not only is his performance undeserving of that contract, but anyone stupid enough to put 4 guns in public view does not deserve that kind of money. A misdemeanor seems likely, but will not be enough to change the fortunes of this team. Call me an asshole, but I'm rooting for the worst for Gil, which will be the best for the Wizards.

(Image courtesy of www.sitv.com)

Week 17 Picks (Late Edition): Happy New Redskins Season!

Just one awful game today, and we were are finally free and back to being offseason champions. I was away and unexpectedly without internet access for the weekend, so was unable to post picks. Better late than never I say (see Cerrato, Vinny), so here are the picks even though all but 1 of the games have already happened. I know this sounds ridiculous and pointless, but if you are gambling on week 17 in any game that does not have playoff implications for both teams, then you are probably really excited right now.

On to the picks..........FO's 'locks of the week' were 9-11 with 3 'locks' this week, their 'reasonable' picks were 30-38, and their 'stay away' picks were 80-65. FO does take into account that starters will sit. Please note that differences in total games picked is a result of us using slightly different spreads.

The standings (with pushes excluded):
Sports Guy: 8-7 last week 123-111 overall (52.5%)
FO: 11-4 last week, 119-114 overall (51.1%)
DCLS: 7-8 last week, 111-122 overall (47.6%)

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence with home teams in CAPS. Given that I did not post my picks before any of the games occurred, I will only take credit for 1 pick, which is the Skins over the Chargers, because I pick the Skins every week. Considering analysis is pretty pointless right now, I will just track the record of FO through their picks.

1. Green Bay +3.5 over ARIZONA: 1-0
   
2. Jacksonville +1 over CLEVELAND: 1-1
   
3. Baltimore -10.5 over OAKLAND: 1-2
   
4. New England +7 over HOUSTON: 1-2-1
   
5. Cincinnati +10 over NEW YORK JETS: TBD
   
6. New Orleans +8 over CAROLINA: 1-3-1
   
7. San Francisco -7 over ST. LOUIS: 2-3-1
   
8. Kansas City +11 over DENVER: 3-3-1
   
9. Philadelphia +3 over DALLAS: 3-4-1
   
10. SEATTLE +4.5 over Tennessee: 4-4-1
    
11. Chicago -3 over DETROIT: 5-4-1
    
12. Pittsburgh -3 over MIAMI: 6-4-1
    
13. Atlanta -2.5 over TAMPA BAY: 7-4-1
    
14. Indianapolis +8.5 over BUFFALO: 7-5-1
    
15. Washington +4 over SAN DIEGO: 8-5-1
    
16. New York Giants +8 over MINNESOTA: 8-6-1

Picks will continue through the playoffs; with FO finally over .500, maybe we should get a little excited.......

(Image courtesy of product.images.fansedge.com)

Week 17: Chargers 23, Redskins 20 - Knee Jerk Reactions

Quick recap of today's game, as the sooner we rid ourselves of this version of a professional football team the better:

• I've heard people say the Redskin DB's hands are made of stone, but that's a generous criticism. Fred Smoot and Justin Tryon had a bad case of Carlos Rogers Syndrome today, a disease which appears to be specific to the DC region. Go figure.
• Malcolm Kelly's 84 yard catch and run - which was pretty sweet, by the way - accounted for 23% of his career receiving yards (365). Welcome to the NFL, dude. I guess.
• Antwaan Randle El sighting on a punt?! Good Lord, a random kid in China must have exploded, too.
  
• Jason Campbell was his usual self. Pretty damn good, but not great, but not bad. Some big plays, some missed plays. Some pluses, some minuses. More or less it was much of the same. Take it or leave it. I'll just stop right now.
• So what if Jim Zorn can't coach? On this team, it's all about style, and he's got that in shades spades.
  

And thus concludes the shoddiest game recap of all time, a fitting way to end the worst Redskins season since 1994.

I guess I'll drink to that? Whatever.

Washington, DC: The Decade's Biggest Loser...Can the Caps Save Us?

About a year ago, our friends at MisterIrrelevant determined that D.C. was, in fact, America's worst professional sports city. The data was pulled mostly from the 2008 calender year but included the beginning portions of the 2007-2008 NHL and NBA seasons.

In a similar fashion, I evaluated America's four-sport cities over the past decade. I began this task with the awareness that my greatest fear - ten years of utterly hopeless fanaticism - might be confirmed. Yet, that feeling didn't overwhelm my curiosity enough to withdraw from the exercise. So on I went.

The results weren't depressing; they were demoralizing.

Notes to consider before reading on:

• Only the Washington/Montreal baseball franchise was included. Sorry, O's fans.
• There were nine NHL seasons this decade due to the 2004-2005 strike.
• For cities in which two teams exist within one sport (e.g. baseball in Chicago), performance was averaged for each particular year.
• The team with the best year among the 12 cities received a scored of 1. The team with the worst year among the 12 cities received a score of 12.
• Success was determined by playoff success first. Regular season records were used as tie-breakers.
• Rankings are only relative to the 12 cities being evaluated.
  

[Click tables to enlarge]

Overall

For those of you more graphically gifted, the image on the right should provide some insight. For those who aren't, I'll explain. That light blue area? That abnormally large protuberance from the wonderfully average red area? That represents the amount that D.C. sports have sucked over the last 10 years. Notice how it's hilariously close to being about 150% as large as the average, meaning our ineptitude has deemed us about half as bad as average this decade. My head is spinning, but not from the math.

And here's the breakdown by sport (analysis following):


Basketball 

  


Breakdown by Year

Hockey

Breakdown by Year

Football

Breakdown by Year

 








Baseball

Breakdown by Year

***

There it is. So next time you're at the water cooler chatting with that choch from Philly who frosts his tips and wears sunglasses at night, your biggest validation as a D.C. sports fan will be that you've rooted for only the 5th worst hockey team out of the 12 major sports cities over the last decade. Gross.

The implications of this are simple: this year's Capitals team is our only hope to salvage what little dignity we have left as D.C. sports fans this decade. With the Wizards middling well below mediocrity, the Redskins in more disarray than a bag of cockroaches, and the Nationals at least two years away from fielding a major league baseball team, more and more of the town's focus will be centered around the Caps' performance this year. And with that focus comes pressure.

General Manager George McPhee made a relatively large splash yesterday in trading Captain Cadaver and Juice for a speedy winger and $2 million in cap space. With the extra wiggle room, an even bigger move could be in the works.

Which may be exactly what this Caps team needs to reach the pinnacle of the sport; which might be this city's one saving grace in a decade beyond the realm of disappointment.

Wow: Caps trade Captain Clark

Not the sort of move you expect a team that's currently tops in the league to make, but here goes: Chris Clark's been dealt to the Columbus Blue Jackets, along with defenseman Milan Jurcina, in exchange for Jason Chimera.

[Allen Clark, via Off-Wing Opinion]

Obviously, Clark's had his struggles the past three seasons in Washington, but he wears the C on his chest, and that means something in the NHL. But if winning's the bottom line, this move is an upgrade. Chimera, 30, has size and grit and plays with an edge the likes of which we haven't seen in Washington since Matt Cooke's departure. We gave him props by calling him a "shit-stirrer" after he knocked Ovi out of the lineup with that upper-body injury a while back.

Jurcina? Well, he was a spare part, made even more redundant by Karl Alzner's ascent to full-time duty in D.C. He showed signs of playing a more physical game starting in last year's playoffs, but ultimately it was a numbers game and Jurcina -- despite having the hardest shot on the Washington roster -- just couldn't make himself indispensable.

Chimera's signed through 2011-12 at $1.875; Clark's cap figure stood at $2.5M through next season, while Jurcina will become an unrestricted free agent after earning $1.375 this season.

The big questions now are twofold: (1) What effect does trading the team captain have on a team that's been dominant of late, and (2) Who gets the C?

As fans, we aren't privy to the interactions that go on between players behind closed doors, but all indications are that Clark was well-liked by his teammates. How could you not like a guy that shattered his face and still gutted out the rest of his shift? That cadaver bone story never gets old.

As far as who gets the C, our money's on Brooks Laich.

In the meantime, farewell Clarkie and Juice.

Is Bruce Allen Just as Bad as Cerrato?

Amidst all the excitement that my lamb sacrifices have finally paid off and Vinny Cerrato was mercifully fired, I think we are forgetting that Bruce Allen may not exactly be the savior we envision. I realize that the likely scenario is that Mike Shanahan becomes head coach and the de facto GM, but Bruce Allen will certainly be prominently involved, so I did some research.

Allen started his career in Oakland in 1995, and was there through the 2003-2004 season. The team was 9-7 the season before he arrived, and here are the records of the team each season of his tenure there, with the Skins record for that year in parentheses:

1995: 8-8 (6-10)
1996: 7-9 (9-7)
1997: 4-12 (8-7-1)
1998: 8-8 (6-10)
1999: 8-8 (10-6, lost Divisional round)
2000: 12-4, lost AFC championship (8-8)
2001: 10-6, lost Divisional round "tuck rule game" (8-8)
2002: 11-5, lost Super Bowl, named NFL Executive of the Year (7-9)
2003: 4-12 (5-11)

Allen then moved to Tampa Bay in 2004, and was there through the 2007-2008 season. Before he arrived, the Bucs were 7-9.

2004: 5-11 (6-10)
2005: 11-5 lost wild card (10-6, lost Divisional round)
2006: 4-12 (5-11)
2007: 9-7 (9-7)
2008: 9-7 (8-8)

Did you notice the Skins records compared to Allen's teams? Almost identical, save for the not so minor Super Bowl loss and championship seasons. Both were consistently mediocre, and suffered a heartbreaking Divisional round loss. The difference is that Allen was at one point able to help his team continue moving forward, whereas the Skins peaked in 1999. Not coincidentally, this is also the year Vinny Cerrato was hired. Either way though, it is hard to say Allen is significantly better than what we've had.

There are other factors, so I went through his draft history (BGO also has a thread on this). I realize there are questions about how much input Allen has on each draft, and word is that he relies heavily on his scouts, but the drafts under him are his responsibility, and there is no way around that. With the Raiders, he was okay, but not great, grabbing about one starter per draft from 1995 through 1998, and then adding 2-3 from 1999-2003, except for a poor effort in 2001. Most importantly though, these drafts were a key part of building that dominant Raider team. Just looking at his drafts compared to those of the Skins, the amount of star players looks the same, but the big difference is the depth in these drafts. The problem with the Skins has long been a lack of depth on the roster, generally due to a lack of draft picks. Bruce Allen has not only consistently kept all of his picks, but has used the entire draft to fill his roster.

In Tampa, his results were not as good, and as of today, the work of Cerrato during the 2004-2008 drafts has been better, which is a big reason why the Bucs are in the position they are today.

In addition to weak draft classes in Tampa, the other difference between his tenures in Oakland and Tampa was that he had an elite QB in Oakland, and could not find one in Tampa. That elite QB was Rich Gannon, who seemingly came off of the scrap heap to have 4 phenomenal seasons for the Raiders. That is probably the greatest move in Allen's career, but his free agent signings have also been a mixed bag. His most notable mistake has been a propensity for Super Bowl MVPs who were mostly 1 game wonders. He signed both Larry Brown and Desmond Howard after their Super Bowl performances, and both were epic busts.

So what are we getting? No one can really say, as Allen may have changed with experience, and the people providing input to him will also change from his past jobs. The good news is that he was moderately successful for the entirety of his career, has drafted for depth, and built a Super Bowl team. The bad news? His record is almost identical to that of the Skins over the same period and the team he left behind in Tampa is a complete disaster. If you remember that Cerrato was successful in San Francisco, albeit in a different era in the NFL, looking at Allen's record almost, almost, makes you think Cerrato wasn't a complete disaster in DC.


The big difference between Cerrato and Allen though, is while Cerrato was never was able to move the Skins beyond mediocrity, Bruce Allen was able to push the Raiders to the brink of winning a Super Bowl. Allen built that Raider Super Bowl team through several years of solid drafting, and then by filling-in holes with some savvy free agent signings. Although he left the Tampa a landfill, we can at least cling to the thought that we have a guy who is at least capable of moving the Skins beyond this mediocre abyss.

(Images courtesy of media.idahostatesman.com and washingtonpost.com)