Second Line Center: Who Ya Got?

With Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov forsaking freedom and liberty and all things American, choosing instead to return to Mother Russia's cold, iron teat (hello Magnitogorsk!) the Capitals knew they had at least two glaring holes in their offense heading into the start of free agency. George McPhee took care of one of those needs by signing Mike Knuble to play right wing on the Ovechkin-Backstrom line, but a void (potentially a much bigger one) exists at the second-line center position.

Not the guy the Caps want to see playing second-line center

You don't need look any farther than the Pittsburgh Penguins to see how critical the center position is in today's NHL; Crosby, Malkin and Staal give them, without much argument, the league's top trio of centers.

The Caps, who looked to have an embarrassment of riches at center not long ago, currently have a young Swede and not a whole lot else. Fedorov's departure coupled with Michael Nylander's perpetually-circular suckitude means that there's no proven pivot on the roster that can consistently play both ends of the ice beyond Backstrom.

So what's Bruce Boudreau to do come opening night? To our mind, there are a few options; here's a list of the candidates:

The Favorites:

Brooks Laich

George McPhee believes No. 21 can be the team's full-time second line center, citing Laich's performance there during Fedorov's multiple stints on the injured list this season. While you know Laich's going to bring a balls-out effort every night, he's not the greatest puck-handler, and his passing abilities are nondescript. Even though he's officially listed as a center, he's made his mark on the wing. Unless Laich takes a jump next season (and at 26, it's not impossible), we'd rather see him stick to the wing.

Someone Else Who Isn't Currently on the Roster:

Sly Fox McPhee has been mighty coy of late when talking about planned roster moves. But with the team already pushing the limits of the salary cap, McPhee acknowledged that any new acquisitions will need to come via the trade market. While that might be code for "if we can convince Glen Sather or Bob Gainey to take Nylander," there could be other players on the move if it brought the right return. Shaone Morrissonn isn't likely to return to the team next season, though if he accepts his qualifying offer or loses out through arbitration, the Caps could trade him to a team looking for blue-line depth between now and the start of the regular season.

The Underdogs:

Keith Aucoin:

The little guy from Hershey made a decent showing during a couple of short stints in Washington last season (6 points in 12 games), but his age (will turn 31 in November) and size (5'9'', 187) work against him. Still, he's quick, he's a vet, and McPhee has implied that he's in the team's plans for 2009-10. Still, unlikely he's got the size for the full-time gig.

The Undesirables:

The Tin Man:

He's slow, looks completely out of place on an NHL playing surface, doesn't move very well and lacks heart. Considering him for the No. 2 spot would be utterly idiotic.

Michael Nylander:

Same as above, except this guy earns $5.5 million next season.

GMGM Playing Coy?

"With Washington creeping close to this season's $56.8 million salary cap as a result of Knuble's signing, McPhee said Knuble represented the team's biggest offseason move and that the Capitals were comfortable going into the season with Brooks Laich as the second-line center instead of trading for an established pivot."
--ESPN.com

What do you take from this? The exact opposite of what it means. GMGM plays his cards real close to the chest. An acquisition would not surprise me. In fact, based on this quote, I almost expect it.

Knuble in; Brashear out
Caps sign solid and consistent (20 goals in 7 straight seasons) RW Mike Knuble, an ideal replacement for Viktor Kozlov on the top line, for 2 years at $2.8 million per.

In other news, Donald Brashear leaves for the Big Apple. So long, Donald: it's been real, but it was time to move on.

Keep updated on top free agents here.

Monthly Forecast: June '09 [Revisited]

Let's see how we did, shall we?

• The Wizards will not trade the 5th overall pick. Incorrect
  

• Ernie Grunfeld and Flip Saunders will draft a point guard. Incorrect
  

• Ernie Grunfeld, Steve Van Gundy, and Ron Jeremy will all be indistinguishable. Correct!
  

• The Redskins will NOT pursue Brandon Marshall. Correct!
  

• The Caps WILL pursue Dany Heatley. Incorrect
  

• Matt Wieters will have raised his average to above .300. Incorrect
  

• Luke Scott will cool off in classic fashion and drop below .300. Correct!
  

• Manny Acta will be unemployed. Obvious. Incorrect
  

• Stephen Strasburg will remain unsigned. Correct!
  

• Nats fans will panic. Inconclusive
  

• Mike Green will deserve to win the Norris Trophy, but won't. Correct!
  

• Ovechkin will win the Hart (MVP), Pearson (Player's MVP), and Richard (Goal Scoring), and the world will be restored to order once again. Correct!

June: 6-5-1

Loser Red Sox Fans Leave Camden Yards in Shame After Historic O's Comeback: Birds 11, Sawx 10

That made my week.

Nick Markickass hit a go-ahead two-run double in the bottom of the 8th to cap the O's 9 run comeback Tuesday night, the largest since the franchise became the Baltimore Orioles. And it couldn't have come against a better team, literally, karmically and schadenfreude-ally.

The Sawx thought they had this in the bag and were all smug about it. In the bottom of the 5th 6th they jogged back to the dugout after two outs thinking it was their turn to bat, and had a teeheehahahahhaLOL good laugh about the blunder, but not so fast you arrogant fucks. A pair of five-run Orioles innings in the 7th and 8th did them in, and it felt great. That kind of abrupt explosion usually does for me.

And Wieters was a part of it this time. In an eerie repeat of a recent scenario against the Mets, he came to the plate with the bases loaded and the O's down 10-6. Tonight he came through with the RBI single instead of a GIDP to cut the Sawx lead to 3. Clutch.

The O's won't be contenders for awhile, so these are the kinds of wins we cherish in the meantime: 10-run comebacks with hordes of invading fans in the stands dying a little on the inside. And that's the beauty of baseball, isn't it? Watching the enemy die on the inside slowly and painfully during hour long 8th innings. It must have felt like forever for them. I don't know what that's like, because I root for a team that only gives up 6-run leads usually.

[Image via AP/Nick Wass]

Nationals Fleece Pirates In Trade
Acquire LF Nyjer Morgan and solid relief pitcher Sean Burnett in exchange for disappointing OF Milledge and crappy reliever Hanrahan. Impact level on my life remains low.

Putting the 2009 NBA Draft, and John Hollinger, in Perspective

Much has been said about the 2009 NBA Draft being one of the worst ever, but is there really any validity to that claim?

While I direct enormous amounts of animosity toward ESPN's John Hollinger in emails concerning his lack of respect for the Washington Wizards (we finished 5th that year, John, not 13th), he does have a pretty interesting formula for projecting NBA success based on college efficiency. Let's test its accuracy, shall we?

We used his pre-draft Projected Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) to rank the last eight NBA Drafts, dating back to 2002. Unfortunately, Hollinger's formula only applies to college players. Our sincerest apologies, 2003 and 2004 drafts.

Here is a spreadsheet containing those pre-draft Projected PER Rankings for Hollinger's top 12 college prospects from 2002-2009. We simply added the total PER numbers in each year, and ranked each draft year 1-8. For example, according to Hollinger's system, the strongest NBA Draft in this span was projected to be the 2007 draft (sum PER: 171.81). The second strongest draft was supposed to be this 2009 draft (sum PER: 168.23). The third strongest draft was supposed to be the 2005 draft (sum PER: 164.02), etc.

We then compared these Projected Rookie PER Rankings against their actual rookie season PER rankings to analyze the accuracy of Hollinger's projection system. Here is what we found:


This tells us a few things.

1) John Hollinger can suck it. The drafts with the two worst top-12 Projected PERs (2004 an 2008) turned out to have the best rookie seasons, while the draft with the most promise (2007) actually had the worst top-12. Hollinger, you're one arrogant bastard.

2) The 2003 and 2004 rookie classes actually ranked as two of the best, even without the statistical presence of Lebron James (2003) and Dwight Howard (2004). That's impressive.

3) Based on Hollinger's unintentionally-discovered-by-me-semi-inverse-formula, the 2009 Draft class, while ranking 2nd out of the last eight drafts in Hollinger's projections, may actually be, as people have been saying, one of the worst. Just follow the opposite of Hollinger's predictions and you too can be your own internet Nostradamus!

But who knows? Only time, and a championship for the Washington Wizards, minus any picks from this potentially awful draft, will tell.

Bite me, Hollinger.

[Image via ESPN.com]

O's Come to Terms with First Round Pick

Welcome, Hobgoblin, to the cavalry.

Friday Furburgers: If You Have the Means, I Recommend a Trip to the Virgin Islands

Red Rover and Mrs. Red Rover took a trip to the US Virgin Islands over the past week, and let me tell you, it is an...interesting place. Get this: you're allowed to drink alcohol while you drive. When our host picked us up at the ferry docks, he had a whiskey on the rocks in the cupholder, not a big. I didn't partake, mostly because I was deathly afraid of making a mistake while driving on the left side of the road. It's complicated enough at a five-way intersection while stone sober and on 12 hours of deep island sleep. Especially with crazy locals honking and speeding through stop signs up 45 degree inclines.

You can drive through a collection of dilapidated shanties, or what is known there as "town," and with your window open you'll most assuredly be offered "green," though I doubt it's the kind dumbass whitey tourists like myself are looking for, not that I'd be looking for something like that dear potential future employers.

The most noticeable difference, obviously, is the pace. It's sloooow. Waiters don't come to your table. They waddle. One restaurant we planned to go to for dinner had closed at like 2:37 PM. The owner's explanation the next day: "we didn't feel like working." And most tellingly, the wild roosters that roam the island don't even cock-a-doodle-doo until like 10 AM at the earliest. Basically, it's my kind of place.

Without further ado, and with no logical segue necessary, I present your Friday Furburgers. Links from the week, for the weekend:

Over the last 10 years, it's the Eagles who can claim the most consistent NFC East success. Which is the inverse of how our prestige rankings look over the whole Super Bowl era. Keep in mind, the Eagles Super Bowl trophy case is emptier than Paris Hilton's head.
ESPN's Decade Power Rankings

Cooley and Portis are the two funniest (or is it "most funny"?) NFL players in the last decade. And no love for Meast on the most feared category?
ESPN All-Decade

Business ideas that cannot fail, part 438: Jahidi White and Chris Whitney are thinking of starting an armored truck business in England. I'll take "WTF" for $2000, Alex.
DC Sports Bog's Twitter Page

McPhee took Philly to the cleaners on this '08 draft day deal. Keep this in mind going into the weekend.
The Hockey News: Looking Back at the '08 Draft Trades

Brian Orakpo is prettier than Mark Sanchez anyways.
The Redskins Blog

Local boy Oguchi Onyewu (Sherwood High School) dominates Spain's strikers in historic US upset over #1 ranked Spain on Thursday, earning a 9 rating on the game...
Soccer Insider

...and is suing a Belgian opponent for use of a racial slur. Shockingly, this is apparently rampant in Europe. THEY TOOK ERRR JAWWWBS!
ESPN Soccernet

The Wizards passed on the best rebounder in the last decade of college basketball, DeJuan Blair, in exchange for $2.5 million, which they will put towards some crappy $5 million per year veteran like Brian Skinner to fill the rebounding void instead. Genius!
HoopsAnalyst

Find out what your name would be if you were a Brazilian soccer player. Mine would be "Reincha." See if you can figure out my real name now, clever readers. First one to get it right gets their comment deleted!
BrazilName

Rambo keeps getting violenter and violenter with each passing sequel. And also, crappier and crappier.
Nextround.net

The Caps Draft Is In Good Hands With the "Vice President of Atmosphere"

Now that, amigos, is what I call a mullet.

Caps GM George McPhee, a.k.a. the former "VP of Atmosphere" of Blue Moon Mexican Cafe restaurants in New York City, a.k.a. DC's longest tenured GM, a.k.a. the man with the plan, a.k.a. The Undertaker, will be directing his 12th draft as the Caps head bossman tonight, 7 PM, and all day Saturday. While his drafting success has been mixed, he has overseen a streamlining and revamping of the organization's scouting system that is finally reaping dividends.

I could drone on and on about McPhee's GM skills, but it's Friday and I don't want to make Vinny Cerrato cry before the weekend even starts. Instead, I'll regale you with tales of McPhee's manliness that earned him the Undertaker moniker. And maybe a tidbit about his GM skills at the end:

• After a pre-season game in Chicago in 1999 in which the Blackhawks dressed goons and played dirty, McPhee took on the entire coaching staff and roster of the 'Hawks BY HIMSELF. Money quote, after receiving a month-long suspension and $20k fine: "I will never regret standing up for the organization or for what I think is right for the league."
• An undersized McPhee beat the shit out of current Tampa Bay Head Coach and convicted bookie Rich Tocchet with a busted hand. Glen Hanlon - back-up goalie at the time - was, um, fired up about it.
• The Tocchet-McPhee rematch is probably a draw. But the dude proves his fearlessness.
• McPhee takes on noted pugilist Bob Nystrom, who has at least a foot on him.
• Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't direct you towards this four part behind-the-scenes look at McPhee during the '06 entry draft (Backstrom, Varlamov, Neuvirth, Osala, Bouchard, Perrault came out of this one). Fascinating stuff. (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4) The highlight, from Part 3: "I just want to make it look like we're doing stuff. Did I ever tell you you look marvelous?"

Well, I feel comfortable with this guy picking our prospects, don't you?

What to expect: The Caps pick 24th tonight, and WaPo beat writer Tarik El-Bashir thinks McPhee is looking long and hard at speedy RW scoring prospect Landon Ferraro, son of former NHLer Ray. Which would be consistent with his recent taste for drafting NHL lineage (Seabrook, Bourque, Bouchard, Perrault, Gustafsson). You're not getting an NHLer right away with the 24th pick, but Mike Green was snagged 29th, Jeff Schultz 27th, and studly blue-chipper John Carlson was last year's 27th pick. A trade or two to acquire a 2nd-line center to replace Fedorov is possible.

What not to expect: McPhee trading the pick for washed up veterans and handing them massive contracts, and then watching as future NHL stars Victor Hedman or John Tavares fall to the 24th slot anyways. Grunfeld and Cerrato have that shit covered.

Amateur Player Rankings and Scouting Reports
Mock Draft 1
Mock Draft 2
Mock Draft 3

NHL Amateur Draft Round 1. 7 PM, Versus Network.