Friday, October 16, 2009

Week 6 Picks: Why Does Vegas Think the Skins Don't Suck?

After weeks of awful play, false hope, failed expectations, anger, and depression, I thought the world had finally accepted the fact that the Skins suck. I wasn't even all that angry last week, just accepting that this team isn't going anywhere. Well, some awful fan I feel like, because Vegas is still riding the Skins bandwagon. Yeah, the Chiefs also stink, but we are favored by 6.5 points!?! We are averaging 14.6 points a game, and that is even after 3 of our 5 games have come against the worst defenses in football. Amazing, just amazing. That line is the most absurd I've seen this season for any game. Not only have we sucked, but we are now more banged up than we have been in any other game, so the Redskins team going into this weekend's game will be our weakest thusfar. I understand that Vegas sets the line to even out betting, and is not a reflection of what they think the final score will be. Are there armies of Skins fans who think the Skins are winning this game comfortably? Maybe this is some plot by the NFL to get people to watch the game, by making a stupid line so that everyone will bet KC and then watch this pillow fight.

On to the picks...............the Football Outsiders (FO) picking system continues its turnaround, going 8-6 last week and creeping towards .500 for the season. As I've said before, the FO system should improve as the season goes on, because it has more actual data upon which to base its picks, and this statement looks better and better. I swear, a spreadsheet of their picking is coming at some point. FO's 'locks of the week' are now 2-2 with no 'locks' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 8-13, and their 'stay away' picks are 25-24.

The standings:
Sports Guy: 10-4 last week, 49-27 overall (64.5%)
DCLS: 9-5 last week, 41-35 overall (53.9%)
Random monkey throwing shit at a dartboard: 38-38 overall (50.0%)
Football Outsiders: 8-6 last week, 36-40 overall (47.4%)

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence, and I have bolded a team wherever I differ (home teams in CAPS).
  1. OAKLAND +14.5 over Philadelphia - Lost in last week's shellacking at the hands of the Giants was Jamarcus Russell not having an embarassingly bad game. He is sooooo bad, I can't take it. If there was ever a need for a fan to snipe someone, this is it.....this would never happen if Al Davis was still alive.......

  2. Chicago +3.5 over ATLANTA - I am not sold on Chicago, but these teams are pretty even and I'll take the points. I think I just want to hate Cutler, and not just because he was kind of almost a Redskin; he just looks like a douchebag.

  3. Cleveland +14 over PITTSBURGH - Derek Anderson won, but he was 2-17! That wasn't even against a good team. Anderson had 1 INT (and probably would have had more if he could throw it anywhere near his intended receiver), which means he completed only 1 more pass to his own team than the opposition. Does he have embarrassing photos of Mangini somewhere? I know the Steelers haven't been great, but how can you pick the Browns? And now without Braylon Edwards! FO has this as their #3 straight-up pick.

  4. NEW ORLEANS -3 over New York Giants - Oooh weee! These have to be the best 2 teams so far, and this will likely be the best matchup of the entire regular season. You wanna know the kicker? This is a 1pm game, which is the same time I will be watching the Skins and Chiefs take giant dumps on FedEx Field. FO actually has the Saints as their #4 straight-up pick.

  5. SEATTLE -3 over Arizona - The Hawks are 2-0 with Hasselbeck playing the whole game, and have not given up a point in either of those games. Maybe they are the team that FO predicted would be the class of their division.

  6. Buffalo +10 over NEW YORK JETS - As much as I hate picking Senor Sanchez, the Bills are horrible. 6-3 to a QB who was 2-17?!?

  7. Kansas City +6.5 over WASHINGTON - If I ever wanted to pick against the Skins, this would be the time. We are the 11th of 14 straight-up picks by FO, meaning they view this game as just about even. This should be another one of those games the NFL blacks out to hmaintain its overall quality for fans.

  8. Tennessee +9.5 over NEW ENGLAND - I kind of want the Titans to suck, because I predicted that they would be significantly worse without Fat Albert. But now that the Skins D isn't quite carrying us to the Super Bowl, I am not sure what I think. Fat Albert is the real deal, and the Titans dropoff supports that, but why can't the Skins make a similar leap defensively? Maybe Jesus hates DC, in which case we should look into obtaining Kurt Warner next year.......

  9. GREEN BAY -14 over Detroit - Not surprising that this is FO's #1 straight-up pick this week. The Packer o-line isn't a problem when it doesn't have to face a pass rush.

  10. TAMPA BAY +3 over Carolina - I think Carolina can back to not being absolutely awful. FO sees this game as almost dead-even, taking Tampa as its worst straight-up pick this week.

  11. Houston +4.5 over CINCINNATI - FO metrics actually point to the Bungles being worse than their record, and has these teams as pretty even. All I know is other than a dud in Cleveland, Cincy is a fluky bounce from being 5-0 with wins over 4 good teams.

  12. Baltimore +3 over MINNESOTA - Great game, but AD will get nothing, and that is bad news for the Vikes.

  13. JACKSONVILLE -10 over St. Louis - So much for FO thinking the Rams were a prime candidate for a bounce-back season. I am still not sold on the Jags, but I know the Rams lost to the Redskins, which puts them in select company.

  14. Denver +4 over SAN DIEGO - I am off the Charger bandwagon, think I'll chalk it up to LDT and Jamal Williams being hurt. Great matchup of a defensive force against a great passing offense.

To recap, it looks like going with the FO picks is a smart move and a lot of idiots in this world think the Skins are significantly better than the Chiefs.

(Image courtesy of


  1. If the line is so outrageous WHY IN GOD'S NAME ARE YOU PICKING THE SKINS?!

    Again, let's recap what the season has taught us: the Giants are 5-0 against he spread, the Colts are 5-0 against the spread, and the Skins are 0-5 against the spread.

    Since the Colts have a bye, just take the Giants (-3) and Chiefs (+6.5) and have yourself a day.

  2. The Skins are actually 2-3 against the spread, having lost to the Giants by 7 when getting 7.5 pts, and to the Panthers by 3 when getting 3.5 pts. This also means the Giants are 4-1 at best against the spread.

    In case you haven't noticed, I pick the Skins every week on principle.


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