Friday, October 30, 2009

Week 8 Picks: Take a Redskin Vacation.

The Skins are mercifully off, and I honestly feel great about this. Not indifferent because I sadly still care, and not frustrated because I am missing something (I'm not), but calm and accepting that I do not have to build up my hope for another miserable Sunday afternoon. I have been in the acceptance phase of this season for a few weeks now, and I actually laughed out loud at the Skins 3 times on Monday night, most notably when Rabach snapped the ball off of his own leg. My biggest concern this weekend? That the actual good football will make me realize just how terrible it is to sit through a Skins game this year. You know what my solution is? Take a Redskin vacation. Don't let them screw up your gambling, fantasy team, emotions, or anything. This is a hard step for us, and the front-office issues detailed by the WaPo's Sally Jenkins isn't helping, but I am tuning it out. Lavar Arrington was talking about his addiction to soda on 106.7 today, and you know what? Although I was depressed listening to that idiocy, at least I didn't have to hear him beat a dead horse. Yes, the Skins suck and this season is a waste; done and done. I'll admit that I am curious how much candy Fat Albert will eat on Halloween, and what awesomeoness Chris Cooley will do on Saturday night, but you know what, ignorance is bliss my friends.

With the Skins off, my picks should improve, as they are 2-5 against the spread and have single-handedly dropped my % correct by 1.5%. That said, I will keep this brief to obey my rule of taking a vacation from the Skins, so on to the picks...............the Football Outsiders (FO) came back to earth after a few hot weeks, going 6-6 in week 7. I still trust their system more than my own picks, so am generally taking their picks and only differing where I feel strongly. FO's 'locks of the week' are now 2-2 with only 1 'lock' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 11-16, and their 'stay away' picks are 35-36.

The standings (with pushes excluded):
Sports Guy: 6-6 last week, 64-38 overall (62.7%)
DCLS: 7-5 last week, 53-49 overall (52.0%)
Random monkey throwing shit at a dartboard: 51-51 overall (50.0%)
Football Outsiders: 6-6 last week, 48-54 overall (47.1%)

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence, and I have bolded a team wherever I differ (home teams in CAPS).

  • Jacksonville +3 over TENNESSEE - So I get the better team and the points. FO has the Jags as their #8 straight-up pick, but I think their system is not fully comprehending that Vince Young is starting and is a train-wreck; he is a downgrade over Kerry Collins and I can't wait to see this suckfest. VY might have a Jamarcus Russell-esque day. Too soon for a VY suicide costume?

  • Cleveland +14 over CHICAGO - I am not at all impressed with Chicago, but can't take Cleveland seriously. Derek Anderson has been the 2nd worst QB in the league, ahead of only you-know-who, according to FO.

  • Oakland +17 over SAN DIEGO - This is so many points, but I am sticking my my never pick Jamarcus Russell theory, which I'm pretty sure has served me well thusfar. A Jamarcus Russell costume where you carry a football you inaccurately chuck all over the place is almost too easy.

  • PHILADELPHIA +1 over New York Giants - FO likes the Iggles straight-up, but their system consistently overrates the Eagles (they don't know why), so I'll take the the team I think is 2nd best in the NFC. Do you think Eli has a really dumb Halloween costume, like dracula or do you think he is part of a good group costume and gets way more credit than he should when his individual costume is really simple? See what I did there?

  • GREEN BAY -3 over Minnesota - Emotion is the bane of gambling, but hard to think that emotion won't have a big part in this game. FO rates the Packer D as the best in the league, and as a better team than the Vikings. I also think the extra emotion will be on the Packer side. I hope we get this game in DC, but am a little concerned all the half-Viking, half-Packer jerseys will make me nauseous. If you have a Brett Favre costume, it better be really clever, otherwise I'd just want to punch you in the face; maybe a geriatric Favre with walker and hunchback still trying to play?

  • BUFFALO +3.5 over Houston - FO has the Bills has a slight favorite straight-up, but I think Houston is a much better team, regardless of the FO rankings.

  • Seattle +10 over DALLAS - I think the Cowgirls shot their load a bit last week, and I still think Seattle could not totally suck. I think my hatred of Dallas is clouding me from having a good costume idea, but I know there is some potential here.

  • St. Louis +4 over DETROIT - Detroit has been the worst team in the league according to FO, but in what will be a sloppy game, who knows, so take the points.

  • INDIANAPOLIS -13 over San Francisco - Peyton and co. are just steamrolling everyone. My man crush, Mike Singletary, has the power of Jesus on his side, but I think that won't be enough. The 49ers are overachievers, but the talent disparity will be too great here.

  • BALTIMORE -3 over Denver - FO likes Baltimore straight-up here, and coming off the bye-week, at home, I'll stick with them. Should be a close game either way though, so those 3 points are enticing.

  • Miami +3.5 over NEW YORK JETS - I like this pick a lot. I am completely off of the Jets bandwagon, although FO has them as a slight straight-up favorite over the Dolphins.

  • Carolina +10 over ARIZONA - The Cards are picking it up, and Delhomme seems like the type of QB (read: shitty) that their D feasts upon. Some costume with Kurt Warner's deal with the devil or Jesus could work for me.

  • Atlanta +10 over NEW ORLEANS - A good team getting 10 points here is crazy, but the Saints have been that good. After last week, the slipped in the FO rankings to the #2 offense (behind the Colts), and the #5 defense, after being #1 and #2 previously. Has anybody else noticed the Matt Ryan shaving commercial (Gilette maybe?) where he walks out of the shower area shirtless, but in dress pants? Drives me crazy, who would do interviews like that? Are they implying Matty-Ice shaves his baby smooth chest?

  • Maybe after 7 weeks staring at a steaming pile of shit, Skins fans should take this weekend much like the players will, relaxing. Don't even watch other games, just relax and don't think about the Skins. You'll thank me for this idea later.

    (Image courtesy of


    1. Picks are listed in order of confidence by FO, so the first pick is the only one that is a 'lock', Jags +3 over Titans.

    2. dig the pix

      many are like mine

      good news is our Skins cant lose this week :)


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