Thursday, November 25, 2010

The Redskins Aren't Mathematically Eliminated.....Yet

My Redskins optimism died quickly after that Titans game when I realized that we are 2 games back of a wildcard spot, and have to pass 3 teams for that last spot. Dead, and maybe not quite buried if we beat Minnesota this weekend. But maybe I was being too optimistic. Here's a quote from Redskins Insider's Brian Burke (as also mentioned by Mister Irrelevant):

"The NFC wildcard teams are probably going to need to win at least 10 games this season, so the Redskins would need to finish 5-1 to have a reasonable chance at the playoffs. Based on measures of team strength and forthcoming schedules, the numbers give the Redskins a 6 percent chance of making the postseason."

I panned this guy a couple weeks ago for giving statistics a bad name, but this is great stuff using statistics to make a rational point. We all have thought 9-7 would be enough to squeak into the playoffs since the preseason in a parity-driven league, but there is almost no way at least 2 of the 4 teams ahead of the Skins do not win 10 games. And, as you quickly realize, 10 wins means an improbable 5-1 finish.

A win over the Vikings this weekend would dramatically increase that 6%, and keep hope alive in DC, but it really is time to start looking at the offseason. This tortured sports city has a lot to be thankful for: Alex Ovechkin, Ted Leonsis, John Wall, Matt Wieters, and Stephen Strasburg to name a few, but a playoff-bound Redskins team is not one of of them.

(Image courtesy of

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