Friday, October 9, 2009

Week 5 Picks, Is There Hope?

No, not the Skins, we are still hopeless despite the win last week. But I am seeing some signs of life in the Football Outsiders (FO) picking system, which went 9-5 last week to break their string of 3 weeks under .500. FO will still have to pick at about 58% the rest of the way to make it back to 55% of the season (the money making threshold), but that number doesn't seem as crazy for them to reach anymore. As I've said before, the FO system should improve as the season goes on, because it has more actual data upon which to base its picks.

The best part of the FO system maybe finally putting it together.........they LOVE the Skins this week! Okay, maybe LOVE is strong, probably more like go steady, but we are the #2 pick of the week against the spread, which I like to see. The reason I don't say LOVE, is that we are only the #8 straight-up pick, so FO basically sees this game as pretty even, with the Skins as slight favorites. Is it the Shermanator Lewis making a difference? Actually it's the Panthers, who FO has ranked as the worst team in the NFL thusfar. Hey, a wise man once told me, ass is ass, and a win is a win.

The standings:
Sports Guy: 5-9 last week, 39-23 overall (62.9%)
DCLS: 5-9 last week, 32-30 overall (51.6%)
Random monkey throwing shit at a dartboard: 31-31 overall (50.0%)
Football Outsiders: 9-5 last week, 28-34 overall (45.2%)

FO's 'locks of the week' are still 0-2, their 'reasonable' picks are 5-12 and their 'stay away' picks are 23-20, so their most assured picks have actually been their worst.......sounds about right for the Skins.As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence, and I have bolded a team wherever I differ (home teams in CAPS).
  1. Indianapolis -3.5 over TENNESSEE - This is FO's first 'lock of the week' in 3 weeks. I could see the Titans keeping this close, but you have to like Indy here.

  2. Washington +3.5 over CAROLINA - Shermanator!! Jake the Snake will be eating Fat Albert's blubber all day. I hedged my bet slightly here by purchasing, which will eventually have something cool on it, like another picture of the Shermanator.

  3. KANSAS CITY +9 over Dallas - Tony Homo, he of the lukewarm water in his veins, I will not pick your mediocore team until it shows me some consistency. By the way, if KC manages to fall to the pussy of Romo, then the Skins will have opened the season against 6 winless teams when we play the Chiefs next week, wow.

  4. Cleveland +6 over BUFFALO - This is painful, but probably not so painful because I will do everything in my power not to watch this game.

  5. MIAMI +1.5 over New York Jets - Sanchez is not for real, he is doing absolutely nothing behind a superb o-line. FO has him as the 3rd worst QB in the league so far, ahead of only Delhomme and Jamarcus Russell. The only place I want to be ahead of Jamarcus is at the buffet line, zing! Amazing how supposed experts can't get off his johnson, while Jason Campbell has been much better in a much tougher situation and everyone thinks we should bench him. Life isn't fair.

  6. Houston +5.5 over ARIZONA - The Cards have not been great, and Houston probably about the same, so I'll take the points. This is a big game for both teams, who both need to get going soon to have any shot at the playoffs. Where is Jesus for you now Kurt Warner?

  7. ST. LOUIS +10 over Minnesota - Rams? Really? Peterson got a woody when he saw this on the schedule.

  8. New England -3 over DENVER - Ok, we get it, the Broncos' D is good, but they are still not as good as their record indicates. The Pats on the other hand, they just beat one of the top-5 teams in the league. Moss vs. Bailey should be awesome.

  9. DETROIT +10.5 over Pittsburgh - The Steelers have not been impressive, but it's actually been there D that's been down, which I think is some kind of fluke. Matthew Stafford, meet James Harrison.

  10. Tampa Bay +15 over PHILADELPHIA - 15 points is a ton, but a team with a pass rush should make Josh Johnson look like the guy who is rated a 57 in Madden.

  11. Jacksonville pick 'em over SEATTLE - Hasselbeck or no Hasselbeck, I am off the neon green bandwagon..............for now.

  12. Oakland +14.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS - Giants are the #1 straight-up pick, although I can see Oakland's D keeping this somewhat close on the scoreboard, but then I couldn't get Jamarcus Russell under pressure! Jamarcus Russell under pressure! Jamarcus Russell under pressure! Jamarcus Russell under pressure! out of my head.

  13. Atlanta +2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO - I think Vegas saw my Singletary felating article last week, because I think Atlanta is the better team. FO actually has these teams ranked next to each other overall.

  14. Cincinnati +8.5 over BALTIMORE - So I may have been wrong about the Bungles being for real, I think I sprained an ankle jumping on and off that bandwagon. You have to like the Ravens to bounce-back at home and FO has the Ravens as their #4 straight-up pick, but I'll take the 8.5 points for a team with wins over the Steelers and Green Bay, and what should have been a win over Denver.

So for those of you who just skimmed to the end, the moral of the story is go out there and put some dough on the Skins.


  1. Never put money on the Skins, the Cardinal rule of gambling on the NFL. They're 0-4 against the spread this season.

    Always put money on the Colts and Giants, the other cardinal rule of gambling on the NFL. They're a combined 8-0 against the spread this season.

    And you wanna be my latex salesman, Marion.

  2. Since this was a non-caps post, I did, in fact, skim to the end and saw:

    "So for those of you who just skimmed to the end, the moral of the story is go out there and put some dough on the Skins."

    and laughed. I just put 20 on Carolina after reading that.

    Tough game against the fucking Rangers. That 4.75mil would really go a long way in shoring up our D.......................


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