Friday, November 20, 2009

Week 11 Picks: Dallas Means More of the Same?

Dallas week, and not a minute too soon. I wish I could say that this game is close every year, but this is just not one of those years. I know we won last week, but let's not forget that we are 3-6, and our 3 wins are against the Rams, Bucs, and Broncos, all at home. So now we travel to play the #8 team by FO's metrics, who happened to lose a tough game last week. But the Cowgirls lost to same Denver team the Skins beat you say! Give me a break..........I'll keep my hopes down, although a win here puts the Skins back in the playoff picture.....just saying.....

On to the picks, FO's 'locks of the week' are now 3-6 with only 1 'lock' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 16-24, and their 'stay away' picks are 49-44. The top 3 picks this week are all considered locks. FO's creator, Aaron Schatz, posted an apology for their awful picks this year, stating that he will work to tweak the system and make it better for the last bit of the season.

The standings (with pushes excluded):
Sports Guy: 9-6 last week, 85-58 overall (59.4%)
Random monkey throwing shit at a dartboard: 71.5-71.5 overall (50.0%)
DCLS: 9-6 last week, 70-73 overall (49.0%)
Football Outsiders: 7-7 last week, 68-74 overall (47.9%)

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence, and I have bolded a team wherever I differ (home teams in CAPS).
  1. Cincinnati -10 over OAKLAND - Child please! The Bungles have arrived and should dominate, although Jamarcus Russell's absence could make for a slightly better Oakland offense.
  2. Tennessee +5 over HOUSTON - Do people still think Houston is better than the Titans right now?
  3. Miami +3 over CAROLINA - So I was wrong here and the pothead did just fine in place of Ronnie Brown.
  4. Philadelphia -3 over CHICAGO - The Bears stink, so I dont understand this line; I would take the Eagles -7.
  5. DETROIT -3.5 over Cleveland - This game is not worth discussing. FO has Detroit as their #3 straight-up pick, but please, do not bet on this game.
  6. Buffalo +9 over Jacksonville - The FO system has Buffalo straight-up, but actually has an editor's note that the straight-up is particularly odd.
  7. DENVER +3 over San Diego - Ummmm, 1 team lost to the Redskins last week and the other beat the Giants........
  8. BALTIMORE +1.5 over Indianapolis - Sports Guy also likes the Ravens, and FO has the Ravens straight-up, but what has anyone seen from the Nevermores that indicates they can beat the Colts?
  9. NEW ENGLAND -10.5 over New York Jets - The Pats should be particularly fired-up and the Jets will be their usual shitty selves.
  10. Pittsburgh -10 over KANSAS CITY - I'll take the good team over the bad one. The KC line should be under assault all day.
  11. Atlanta +6.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS - I have been getting burned by the Giants, but they have to bounce back eventually right?
  12. New Orleans -11 over TAMPA BAY - A couple weeks ago this line would have been 14+, and I am still on board with the Saints.
  13. Seattle +11 over MINNESOTA - Seattle will let you down!
  14. Washington +11 over DALLAS - Call me superstitious, but I'm sticking with whatever worked last week, which means I will pick against the Skins, have the exact same people over to watch the game, eat the exact same meal, punch a hole in the exact same wall, etc.
  15. GREEN BAY -7 over San Francisco - The Jesus-love of Singletary will not be enough against an actual good team.
  16. ST. LOUIS +9 over Arizona - Sports Guy and FO like the Rams, but I need about 13 points to start thinking about the Rams.
Once again, FO gives the Skins a decent chance of winning, with Dallas as only their #10 straight-up pick (baby steps, I know). I still know we stink, so my strategy is to do everything the same as last week and I strongly encourage you to do the same.
(Image courtesy of


  1. Not a good week for the underdogs, huh?

  2. we will open that new dump like we did with the old dump in Dallas = with a WIN

    Hail To The Redskins!


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