Caps vs. Canadiens: Five Bold Predictions

Perhaps not all of these are bold predictions, but a lot of them are baseless! So I'll format them in bold just in case the distinction isn't clear.

1. The Caps PK unit will surprise you - in a good way.

Second best PP at 21.8% versus 25th ranked PK at 78.8%. Allowing 5 PP goals in 14 opportunities in head to head matchups with the Canadiens on the year. Mismatch, you say? On paper, yes. But something tells me the Caps PK unit will buckle down. It has to. Bruce Boudreau will make the adjustments necessary to thwart the Habs' power play, which will most likely be missing the services of former Cap and PP specialist Glen Metropolit for the entire series, out with a separated shoulder. Jose Theodore will be the Caps' best penalty killer, a little extra motivation not hurting his cause. Which brings me to my next point...

2. Semyon Varlamov will start at least one game.

Not because Theodore will struggle; rather, because Bruce Boudreau has stuck with a system all year, rotating his goalies in and out even during hot streaks, and that system led to 54 wins and a team record 121 points. If it ain't broke, why try to fix it? If I'm a betting man, Varlamov starts Game 3 in Montreal, the site of his NHL debut, a 2-1 Caps victory.

3. Eric Belanger will be a healthy scratch at some point.

He's currently slotted as the 3rd line center between Eric Fehr and Jason Chimera, a role he's well suited for. But Belanger never got into an offensive groove with the Caps, aside from his sweet goal in the last game of the season and a nice cross ice pass to Tomas Fleischman in OT against the Canes. Six points in 17 games while logging over 14 minutes of ice time is a massive underachievement for a guy like Belanger, even if the Caps offense does not necessarily need him to score. With Brendan Morrison likely on the bench for Game 1, Belanger is replaceable should he struggle.

4. The "other Alex" will be the most dominant player on the ice.

Alex Semin's career playoff numbers: 21 games played, 8 goals, 14 assists. The maddening inconsistencies we're accustomed to seeing from Sasha in the regular season usually dissipate in the postseason. As strange as it sounds, he almost seems to relish the physical play in the playoffs. It brings out the best in him because it focuses him. Alex Ovechkin will garner most of the attention, and rightfully so, but Alex Semin will quietly be the Caps best offensive player. Count on it.

5. John Carlson will play like a seasoned veteran.

He has been for quite some time. You'd suspect a rookie in his first playoff experience, especially one with only 22 NHL games to his credit, to make a few mistakes that you simply attribute to youth and nerves. Don't expect this from Carlson. He plays with maturity well beyond his years and is already one of the Caps' top four defensemen (if not higher), even if his minutes don't necessarily reflect this. Without any power play time, don't expect many points. What you should expect are crisp passes, solid defensive positioning, and physical play that make you scratch your head and say, "Why the hell is Tom Poti skating 6 more minutes per night than John Carlson?!" Oh, and maybe just one unbelievably clutch goal.





Bonus Prediction: Caps in 6.


Let's do this. Hanta yo.

John Carlson's OT Game Winner

To beat Canada, 6-5, in the World Junior Championship. This is one Caps prospect we are super excited about. USA, baby!

Culture of the Caps: Summer Development Camp

Easter Day 2003. Call it the tipping point. The cherry blossoms were in bloom. The news was confusing me and making me hungry for uranium cake. The DOW was at 35 trillion gazillion. The Caps were squandering a 2-0 series lead to a lower seeded team. I kissed a girl, and I liked it.

The tipping point in question here was, of course, the bitter 3OT loss to the Lightning that changed the course of Washington Capitals history forever. That Easter Massacre proved that the old ways of team building were fatally flawed and that the defeatist attitude that pervaded the team and its fanbase would have to be wiped clean. From the ashes of this ill-fated day would emerge the phoenix of Alexander Ovechkin and the new Capitals: a shrewdly built roster whose core talent was drafted and developed by Caps scouts and coaches. Leonsis and McPhee realized on that day that real champions are made from within.

Now, after five years of replenishing the prospect ranks, streamlining the scouting system, stabilizing minor league affiliations, building a state-of-the-art complex in Ballston and standardizing a hockey system from the NHL down to the ECHL, the Caps have created a cohesive organization top to bottom.

The inner-workings of the revamped Washington Capitals are on display during this week's Summer Rookie Development Camp when the organization's prospects get a taste of professional experience and begin their assimilation into Caps Culture. Boudreau on the camp:

Our whole thought process is to show these young players...what it's like to be in the NHL. How many meetings you go to every day, the video you see, the work ethic on the ice. And I think [last year] we accomplished all of that. So the guy's leaving here saying "You know what, I know what I gotta do to become a better player" and that's what we want them to do. And we also want them to say "You know what? What an organization. Look at the place we're playing in, look at the people who are watching." Get them hungry.

And they have good reason to be hungry: 9 Hershey Bears (AHL) made their NHL debuts with the Caps in '08-'09; seven current Caps were Calder Cup champion Bears before they made the big squad. Hope and promise are not empty words in the halls of Kettler Capitals Iceplex. You work hard, you get rewarded. The meritocracy applies to the coaching staff too: Boudreau and new assistant coach Bob Woods were promoted after championship seasons with the Bears, and Bears assistant Mark French is the new Hershey head coach.

As the prospects learn to play together, they also learn to like each other. Mike Green in a recent interview explained what makes these Caps different: "We have such a good group of guys. You get on a lot of teams and guys don’t care that much. Here, it’s a lot different. The guys are my family.” The cameraderie amongst familiar faces at Summer Rookie Camps is already evident after Day 1 on the ice. And free agents actually want to come to DC for less money now. "Hockey players enjoying their time and each other in DC" is the new "Jagr hates everyone and nobody gives a shit."

Most importantly, however, Caps Culture is about where the Caps are going and not where they have been. The likes of former Caps greats hang from the Kettler rafters, but otherwise the past and its spotty history has been left behind. Previous Caps squads have been good but not quiiiite good enough; gritty but unskilled; skilled but half-hearted; playoff flops. The team's rocky history has developed a cynical fan base bitter towards departed stars who couldn't get it done.

But that's over now. The organization is stocking itself with winners and getting it done in the minor leagues. Ovechkin is the world class player and leader around which the Caps have built a steady organization replete with hockey talent, with able coaches to mold it, and the infrastructure and ownership to support it. It's a positive place where nobody remembers Esa Fucking Tikannen and the future continues to look brighter by the day. It's on display this week at Kettler.

Camp Roster (not including free agent camp invites):

5 Star Prospects to watch:
D John Carlson ('08, 1st round pick)
C Anton Gustafsson ('08, 1st round pick)
D Dmitri Orlov ('09, 2nd round pick)

4 Star Prospects to watch:
G Braden Holtby ('08, 4th round pick)
RW Dmitri Kugryshev ('08, 2nd round pick)
LW Stefan Della Rovere ('08, 7th round pick)
C Mathieu Perrault ('06, 6th round pick)
LW Francois Bouchard ('06, 2nd round pick)

3 Star Prospects to watch:
G Dan Dunn ('07, 6th round pick)
D Josh Godfrey ('07, 2nd round pick)
D Joe Finley ('05, 1st round pick)
D Eric Mestery ('08, 2nd round pick)
D Patrick Wey ('09, 4th round pick)
C Jake Hauswirth (free agent signee)

Notable Absences:
D Karl Alzner, LW Oskar Osala, G Michael Neuvirth, G Semyon Varlamov are all too damned good at this point.
C Marcus Johansson ('09, 1st round pick) could not get out of a prior commitment to his Swedish team.
D Keith Seabrook ('04, 2nd round pick) hasn't been to a Caps camp yet. What's the deal Keith-y-poo?
D Sasha Pokulok ('05, 1st round pick) is officially a bust and will never wear a Caps sweater.
C Red Rover (undrafted free agent) has gained 15 pounds of solid beer gut and has lost a step, though he's now a monster in the corners like never before.

Finally:
A likely scene at some point this week:

Hey! Let's all get excited about the hockey stylings of John Carlson!

It’s foolish to get overly excited about a 19-year-old defenseman; almost as foolish as thinking MTV would ever film “The Real World” here getting all engorged over the idea of a flame-throwing right-hander single-handedly reversing the fortunes of your sputtering baseball franchise with his soon-to-be $10+ million arm.

But if you saw Tarik El-Bashir's report from Hershey in Monday’s WaPo, members of the Caps brass are fully tumescent about the play of John Carlson, who, along with the rest of the Bears, is one win away from hoisting Hershey’s second Calder Cup in four years (tonight, 7 PM).

[Carlson looks for fools to wreck. Image via The Patriot News]

The 6-foot-3, 210-pound Carlson impressed just about everybody in the organization at Kettler during camp last year. And while spending the year playing for erstwhile Capitals sensei Dale Hunter’s London Knights (Ontario Hockey League), Carlson was second among all OHL defensemen in points (16G, 60A in 59GP) convincing George McPhee to give the kid a three-year entry-level contract.

When the Knights tasted cruel, cruel OHL defeat at the hands of the Windsor Spitfires, Carlson joined the Bears during the Calder Cup playoffs. He’s appeared in 14 games for the Chocolate Towners, posting modest numbers (1G, 1A) but earning the trust of his teammates and, most importantly, coach Bob Woods.

“Look at how [Mike] Green shaped up. He went through the same process, through two Calder Cup runs, then made the step," Woods told Tarik.

Ah, the inevitable stroking of our expectations. When it comes to projecting NHL defensemen, for every Mike Green, there are at least two dozen guys like Nolan Yonkman, Jakub Cutta, J.F. Fortin and Ross Lupaschuk. Did you just taste a little throw-up too?

(An aside: the Caps organization has been pretty fucking bad when it comes to picking NHL-caliber blueliners: between picking Sergei Gonchar in 1992 and Jeff Schultz in 2004, the Caps drafted exactly two guys – Brendan Witt in ’93 and Steve Eminger in ’02 – that went on to play more than a full season in Washington. Shit is right.)

Luckily, the Caps already have a guy named Mike Green, so Carlson doesn’t need to become a Norris Trophy candidate right away. What he would bring to the Caps that isn’t already there is his hard, low point shot that actually hits the net more often than it misses (you may put your hand down now, Mr. Jurcina). Dude can also hit; check out his nice body-work in the opening seconds of these difficult-to-locate highlights from Hershey’s Game 3 victory over the Manitoba Moose. Carlson’s too fly for YouTube.

In addition to his offensive tendencies, Carlson plays with an edge, something the Caps desperately need. He racked up 65 PIMs in the OHL, and with a full season of pro-hockey conditioning under his belt, Carlson’s liable to add some muscle mass to his Tom Poti-sized frame. Hockey's Future noted Carlson’s good at one thing Bruce Boudreau likes in his guys: he plays well within a system. And, he’s “willing to do whatever it takes to win.” Bonus!

So, should you run out and take out a second mortgage to afford that customized John Carlson No. 74 Caps sweater? Maybe.

With the likely departure of Shaone Morrissonn this offseason, there’s an opening on the Washington blue-line that likely has Hot Karl Alzner’s name on it. Meanwhile, Milan Jurcina and Jeff Schultz, both restricted free agents, are virtual locks to re-sign here, which would leave Carlson, Jurcina and Schultz battling for the No. 6 slot, barring any off-season acquisitions by McPhee.

Jurcina had a strong postseason and Schultz is Boudreau's homeboy, so it would take a very, very heady performance by Carlson to unseat either of those guys on the Opening Night roster. No point in having Carls Jr. up here if he’s going to sit next to Michael Nylander in the press box.

So it will likely come down to injuries: much like Alzner was in 2008-09, Carlson would likely be the first defenseman recalled from Hershey when Tom Poti inevitably tweaks his fragile groin or John Erskine repeatedly bashes his cartoonish head into Riley Cote’s fists. Injuries happen, and it sure would be nice to have Carlson to recall instead of Bryan Helmer or Sean Collins.

Regardless of where Carlson starts 2009-10, he certainly has plenty within the organization excited about his upside. Splitting the season between Chocolate Town and Chocolate City wouldn’t be the worst thing for him, so long as he doesn’t get too comfortable up there hoisting Lord Calder’s The Calder Cup.