Reflections on the Caps: How Should We Feel Going Into the 2nd Half? - Part 3

With the 2nd half of the Washington Capitals season kicking off, I thought it would be a good time to get a little DCLS survey of thoughts on the team. The Caps entered the break as the #5 seed in the East, aligned for a first round playoff matchup against the Penguins - yikes. Here are the thoughts of DCLS contributor ResidentOslo.

For starters, GOD F***ING DAMNIT!!! I bother to watch these games a day delayed half way across the world and a little piece of me dies every time I do so. Is Backstrom carrying cinder-blocks in in his pants? Did Ovie get a penis enlargement procedure in the off-season that is now causing his wang to interfere with his stride and acceleration? I don't know, I'm not a doctor. But what I do know is that I'm sick and tired of grasping on to my fading optimism as it gets slowly beaten to death on an almost daily basis. I'm actively embracing the other end of the scale at this point: Despair here we come!

Power play looks to me like paralysis by analysis. Too many offensive guys on the ice at the same time all worrying about whether or not they are hogging the puck or shooting too much, or passing too much, or not shooting enough, etc. Put Ovie on the half-wall, put Green and Carlson on different PP lines, actually run two completely different lines, and just be more decisive and aggressive. This is a coaching failure of the highest magnitude since it is mental, BB has failed to instill the proper mentality in his players. BB does not define the culture and mentality through sheer force of will, as a good coach should, and instead should be delegated to a position concerning tactics, not leading or coaching a team. This extends further into the the overall play and mentality of the team which is best characterized as flaccid. If Laich doesn't think they're coasting then that is simply an indictment of the standards to which they are holding themselves to (Editors note: this refers to an interview this week Brooks Laich gave to WFAN in which he took offense to the idea that the Caps are coasting). No more excuses, you are mediocre and weak willed, accept it and deal with it.

The problems with this team is not something a mid-season trade will fix........let's not turn into the Skins here. BB, as much as I like him and appreciate the success he has been apart of the past 3 years, has got to go (although most likely won't). He is like the Charlie Weiss of hockey, great offensive mind but not head coach material. A good coach would've gotten Ovie to adjust his game now that D-men shut him down with ease and regularity. A good coach would've figured out how to get such a "talented" and "skilled" team to enter the zone more consistently without resorting to just dumping the puck in every time. It is uninspired.

All that being said, I still think we've got a good shot at getting to the cup if nothing else based on the defensive nature of the playoffs and the overall crapshoot that is small sample sizes. As bad as we are, we're still performing better than half the league. Good goalies and PK enough to take us through the playoffs? Luck eventually turning our way? Or maybe we're just the Jim Kelly Bills: destined to fail on the main stage. Time to take my schizophrenia meds.

(Image courtesy of sportsillustrated.cnn.com)

Reflections on the Caps: How Should We Feel Going Into the 2nd Half? - Part 2

With the 2nd half of the Washington Capitals season kicking off, I thought it would be a good time to get a little DCLS survey of thoughts on the team. The Caps entered the break as the #5 seed in the East, aligned for a first round playoff matchup against the Penguins - yikes. Here are the initial thoughts of DCLS Editor Red Rover.

Watching this year's Caps is like being in bizarro netherworld. Last year, I watched games with comfort. I knew no matter what the score or time remaining, the offensive machine would produce more more more goals. I reacted to goals against like an elephant would to a fly hovering over its arse - I barely noticed. Goals came cheap both ways. Just like Crosby's mom.

Now, I watch games with the stress of a thousand game 7s. Every goal is CRITICAL. I jump to my feet in eager anticipation at even the crappiest of 25-foot Eric Fehr wristers. This way of watching games is an awful, horrible shock to the system that shouldn't be happening. I was given no warning and no transition period. I understand now why they have methadone clinics; if there were an equivalent for recovering "spoiled fans of historically dominant offensive juggernaut"-addicts, Caps fans would overflow such a place.

The optimist in me says: this is good preparation for the playoffs! They play defense consistently and reliably! They are getting more reps in close games! They are in the playoff race instead of their own spoiled pressure-free bubble!

The realist in me watches and says: these guys don't give a baker's fuck. Offense - defense isn't a zero sum game. The lack of offense is from lack of effort. They're the NHL's procrastinators: they don't get motivated until the last minute, then the adrenaline rush kicks in and they try - but alas, too little too late. So many games are a microcosm of this mentality.

And when I think about this, it's hard not to conclude that this is a fatal flaw. Though the goals came easy last year, it was the same. The more I watch Ovechkin and Backstrom float around, make predictable moves, circle back (NYLANDER'S CURSE REMAINS), get called offsides, awkwardly fumble the puck on the power play, glide slowly through the neutral zone, stay to the perimeter in the attacking zone, whiff on one-timers and rebounds, the more I worry that these are the guys that I'm staking my emotional well-being in. CARE. CARE LIKE I DO YOU FUCKS. SKATE HARDER. PASS CRISPER. SHOOT WITH A PURPOSE. STOP GOING OFFSIDES FOR CHRIST'S SAKE!

And it all comes back to Boudreau. Was anyone surprised that NHL players think Boudreau is the easiest to play for? You can't fault his hockey smarts, his (recent) willingness to adjust, etc. But it's clear that on a night to night basis, these Caps are as uninspired as the dog days of the Fall 2007 Glen Hanlon Caps.

Are there personnel holes and injury bugs? Of course. Are there positive signs of improvement in key areas? Yes. But when Matt Hendricks and Jay Beagle provide the most consistent efforts on your team, you are fucked, plain and simple. That, more than anything else, is what scares me, and what must change. Unless things turn around in a few weeks, I don't see how you keep Boudreau behind that bench.

(Image courtesy of espn.go.com)

The State of the Capitals - A Discussion - Part 1

I was privy to a lengthy email chain last week that started with some basic mockery of the Islanders drawing 9,000 fans, which quickly moved onto remembering attending an Orioles-Tigers game on a rainy Wednesday night at Camden yards maybe 7 years ago when the Tigers were historically bad - the game went down as the lowest attended in Camden Yards history until last season, but the actual attendance due to the rain has to make it the lowest actual attendance. We sat in centerfield and when we yelled, the batter could definitely hear us. Oh memories..

Anyway, the email chain turned into a serious discussion about the state of the Caps, so I decided to turn everyone's thoughts into a blog post. This was a long email chain, so I am breaking this into two posts and haven't edited almost anything.

Polish Sausage: Who else likes this years team for the cup more than last (aside from the fact that Bruce continues to strand Ovie on the point during the PP...)?

Red Rover: I vascillate (Ed. Note: we use dictionary words in our spare time). On the one hand, we are not a very good team right now, like, at all. Not good on the power play, not good at possessing the puck, not outshooting the other team, our best players are not our best players right now, and there is a general feeling of flatness/malaise that feels like it's rotting this team from the inside out.

On the other hand, when I thought we were dominant last year, we crapped out in the playoffs, so it would appear that nothing in the regular season matters at all, and i mean nothing. Also we are now able to execute boring, ugly gameplans, where you can win without high-flying goal scoring, and we've seen a few games (Winter Classic, for example) where when you couple that boring defensive gameplan with 100% effort you can win 3-1 and look good, and that's what the playoffs are like and i don't see anything less than 100% effort happening come playoff time, but i've been wrong before about that. And we now have a shutdown D pairing that can also score (Carlson and Alzner) which is quite a luxury, plus if (knock on wood) Varly remains healthy, he's absolutely awesome. Then there's the hope that the law of averages damn will break come April and Ovi, Backstrom, Laich and Semin will all start scoring again in bunches, when it counts.

Then I watch a game again and I'm like goddamn, this team is not very good.

Bushwood Bushwacker: I had basically the same thought process the other night watching the Isles. I thought, "this team HAS to be better than the team we put on the ice last year - there is no way around it. there's no way the core did any worse than maintain, and all of the younger guys MUST have improved (plus obvious steps forward for Karlznerson, though you could say Carlson was really pretty nasty down the stretch last year, and this is just the continuation...) and we replaced Flash, Belanger, Theo and Corvo, with Hannan, Nuevlamoth 2.0, and Perrault/MJo. granted those guys minus the goalies have all been pretty meh, but all we really lost was Flash. and then i thought, well... this isn't the playoffs. maybe these guys have been burnt so badly by the overachieve-in-season/flop-postseason shitck that they just can't do it again. they are playing like an old, veteran NBA team, pacing themselves. Plus, there's the fact we did get pretty lucky last year looking at our shooting %. Maybe this is closer to the true talent of the team. But, I'm guessing not, since a lot of the missing production is Ovie/Back/Green, and those guys are sure as hell going to bounce back.

I have the feeling that as soon as the hockey world counts these guys out of the playoffs, and puts them outside of the circle of serious contenders, is when this team is going to play the best hockey they've played.........ever. Kind of a microcosm of that feeling is how often we come from behind and win games. For whatever reason, this team is a bunch of slackers who probably turned their theses (if they ever went to college...) in 30 seconds before the deadline.They just are built to perform best when they have the fire lit under their asses.
 

Gotta love being the underdog when you really shouldn't be, those teams are always dangerous.

I have hope.

 

RR: I do too, but the issue of course is WHEN that fire lights their asses. There will come a point when it's too late.
 

But like I said, the defensively oriented style is better built for a playoff series because it's more likely to lead to victories when they're not playing their best or when the other team is. The playoffs tighten everything and every team together in performance and ability; last year that meant the Caps' death knell because when their power play went bankrupt they had nothing else to lean on. So with this foundation in place now, we just await that give-a-shit spark to ignite (and the stars to pick it up, which we're all assuming is an inevitability).

 

*****

The 2nd half will posted soon...thought you might need some time to digest....

(Image courtesy of dcprosportsreport.com)

What HBO's 24/7 Showed About the Caps Problems

Seeing the Redskins simply play the team on Hard Knocks in a preseason game got me 'downright giddy,' so you can only attempt to understand my anticipation and excitement for the premier episode of the Caps on HBO's 24/7.

All along, I thought this would be an amazing show, putting Sidney Crosby's lameness and robotic nature as a pathetic contract to the fun-loving Ovechkin leading his high-flying Caps. Well, yeah........

With the Penguins in the midst of a 12-game winning streak, and the Caps puttering through a then 6-game losing streak, everything was upside-down. The Penguins were the loose and fun team, while the Caps personalities all came across as stale. HBO clearly focused their Caps footage on the sullen locker room, and I imagine this quiet was compounded by not many Caps speaking English as a first language.

What I took from this could be much bigger though. I know it is hard to judge a team in its worst times, but I think that sullen locker room I just mentioned is the problem. This team has struggled with inconsistency in effort and focus the past couple seasons, and one has to think that these issues can only be cured by improved leadership.

Bruce Boudreau is certainly a presence and did all he could to rally the guys, but there was an absence of vocal player leadership. This team is led by a bunch of Russians who clearly are not 100% comfortable speaking English, which I imagine is a significant hindrance to vocalizing encouragement. Even Backstrom came across as quiet, if not awkward, when skating with children in DC. Mike Green could, and maybe should, be the guy, but is also pretty quiet and not someone who can captain and NHL team. Jason Chimera kind of put some words out there at one point, but should have been a stronger presence, or gotten some support. Poti? Laich? Anyone?

Meanwhile, the Penguins were ahead 2-1 going into the 3rd period of what would be consecutive win number 12 and had a few guys yelling and getting the team amped, such as Tyler Kennedy; the passion they displayed would have led you to believe the Pens were losing. This is an extenuating circumstance for the Caps, and maybe they are just as boisterous when winning, and maybe being loud isn't the best method for every team, but 'a man is judged by how he responds to adversity,' and behind the scenes, the Caps did not respond to the challenge.

Other quick notes:

• Gabby could indeed have made Rex Ryan blush with his stream of f-bombs. Fantastic! DC Sports Bog counted 31 f-bombs by the Caps' coach.
• The highlight of the show for me was Ovechkin defending the cross-check that got Semin ejected because it opened a big cut on the opposing player's neck, 'Maybe he has sensitive skin.'
• I had no idea NHL refs actually would tell players to 'finish the fight.' 
• As I briefly mentioned above, Lars showed no personality. He may actually be a hockey robot.
  Boudreau's first closeup interview definitely showed a little ketchup or something left on his face.
• My 2nd favorite quote was the Penguins rookie after having his entire room moved into the hotel hallway, "We are going to find whoever did this, and probably do nothing about it."
• I wish the Caps had a team competition in which the loser had to grow a mustache for a month.
• The Penguins have lost both games since episode 1 ended, so episode 2 could be very different.
• On the other hand, the Caps lost #7 in a row tonight, so maybe not.

(Image courtesy of Japers Rink)

Caps/Habs: What We've Learned Through Three Games

Since we're at about the midway point of this series no matter how it turns out, let's see what we've learned so far, with the Caps leading 2-1.

Tomas Fleischmann is even more worthless in the playoffs than he is in the regular season.

We're gonna have to run through this one game by game:

-Game 1: 0 goals, 0 assists, 1 shot on goal, -1 rating in 16:21 of ice time, 2:59 of which came on the PP. Was set up on at least two occasions in front of the net, unable to bury backhands past Jaroslav Halak. Going 50% on 10 draws was the only positive for Fleischmann in this one.

-Game 2: 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 shot on goal, +1 rating in 15:18 of ice time, 3:09 of which came on the PP and 1:20 on the PK. This was by far Flash's most productive game of the series, which isn't saying much. He sprung Eric Fehr on a breakaway for the first goal of the game, essentially a layup pass after Montreal's turnover in the Caps' defensive zone. Otherwise, Flash was practically non-existent.

-Game 3: 0 goals, 0 assists, 2 shots on goal, even rating in 15:14 of ice time, 4:09 of which came on the severely struggling PP and 0:29 on the PK. Game 3 was easily Flash's worst of the series. He made three consecutive awful plays for the Caps: 1) an atrocious offensive zone penalty; 2) failure to shoot the puck from right outside the crease, instead missing the trailer pass to Semin, leading to a Montreal 2 on 1 the other way; 3) fanning on a shot from the point, leading to another odd man rush for Montreal.

While his playing time is ever so slowly decreasing, the fact that he's even seeing 15 minutes per game is perplexing. Especially when you consider that...

Eric Fehr has been an absolute monster in minimal ice time.

This one we actually learned in the regular season, as Fehr was once again in elite company in goals per 60 minutes of ice time. It's always nice when these stats are backed up in the playoffs, and that is exactly what Fehr has been doing. I can say confidently that he is the Caps' best forechecker. Two examples: 1) his goal in Game 3, where he banked a pass to himself off the left sideboards, laid it off for Brooks Laich, crashed the net, and buried the rebound; 2) Laich's goal in game 3, where Fehr deftly played the puck along the wall behind the net while absorbing contact, skated to the front of the cage, and screened Halak as Laich shot the puck into the back of the net. Players like these win you playoff games, and Fehr's aggressive and effective forechecking may be the best way to beat the trap. I never thought I'd say this, but the two Alex's could learn a thing or two from Eric Fehr.

The Montreal goaltending is easily beatable.

Jaroslav Halak: 1-2, 4.07, .887. A shaky glove hand. A shaky water bottle hand. Has allowed 9 goals in his last 50 minutes of play! Most likely will be benched in Game 4 for...

Carey Price: 0-0, 3.87, .913. These numbers come in limited ice time (31 minutes in Game 3) so take them with a grain of salt. His regular season numbers against the Caps might be more telling: 2-1-1, 3.39, .899.

There's no use in being quiet anymore: the sleeping giant hath awaken, and the pressure is all on Halak and Price to put it to bed.

The Power Play is struggling mightily but it does NOT need an overhaul.

The raw stats are ugly: 0 for 14, including a horrendous 0-7 clip in last night's Game 3. It almost seems as though Montreal is getting more scoring chances on our PP than we are, and a lot of that blame has to be pinned on pointmen Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green. When they are not getting shots off from the point, the power play is just not the same. Countless times in Game 3 Nicklas Backstrom had the puck near the right faceoff circle, looking for his pointmen to thread a pass to. But the pass was never there, and as much as we'd like Backstrom to shoot the puck in that situation every single time, he's just not going to do it. Bruce Boudreau seemed fed up with Alex Ovechkin's point play at various points in the game, electing instead to play Joe Corvo and move Ovie down low, a wise decision if you ask me. This will eliminate some of the turnovers and simplify the power play, as Corvo has no problems firing shot after shot from the point. I predict a breakout game for the power play unit in Game 4. And maybe, just maybe, some of Flash's power play minutes will be replaced by Eric Fehr.

Canadiens fans who booed the American National Anthem are a disgrace.

I wasn't at Game 1 or Game 2 at the Verizon Center, so I'm not 100% on this, but I doubt many people in the crowd were booing the Canadian National Anthem. Habs fans booing the Star Spangled Banner doesn't even make sense, anyway! It's not like the Caps are flooded with American players. In fact, there is only one fewer American player on the Habs (Gionta, Gomez, Gil) than on the Caps (Poti, Corvo, Carlson, Steckel), unless John Carlson counts as three players, which he might. Just truly classless by the Bell Centre fans.

Warning to the NHL: Semyon Varlamov has returned.

Absolutely phenomenal performance by Varlamov to stand on his head (especially in the first period) in front of a raucous Bell Centre crowd. The Caps seemed overwhelmed in the first period, almost reeling a bit, and Varlamov kept them in the game until Boyd Gordon was able to subdue the crowd and kill any momentum with his shorthanded goal.

Uh-oh, NHL?

One of my few bold predictions that came true, Varlamov started Game 3 and crushed it. He will start Game 4, and if the Caps win, he'll start Game 5. Sorry, Theo. You just don't match up well with the Canadians for whatever reason.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs is far and away the best postseason in all of sports.

But you knew that already, right? Right. Play this on repeat if you don't...or if you do.
 

Caps vs. Canadiens: Five Bold Predictions

Perhaps not all of these are bold predictions, but a lot of them are baseless! So I'll format them in bold just in case the distinction isn't clear.

1. The Caps PK unit will surprise you - in a good way.

Second best PP at 21.8% versus 25th ranked PK at 78.8%. Allowing 5 PP goals in 14 opportunities in head to head matchups with the Canadiens on the year. Mismatch, you say? On paper, yes. But something tells me the Caps PK unit will buckle down. It has to. Bruce Boudreau will make the adjustments necessary to thwart the Habs' power play, which will most likely be missing the services of former Cap and PP specialist Glen Metropolit for the entire series, out with a separated shoulder. Jose Theodore will be the Caps' best penalty killer, a little extra motivation not hurting his cause. Which brings me to my next point...

2. Semyon Varlamov will start at least one game.

Not because Theodore will struggle; rather, because Bruce Boudreau has stuck with a system all year, rotating his goalies in and out even during hot streaks, and that system led to 54 wins and a team record 121 points. If it ain't broke, why try to fix it? If I'm a betting man, Varlamov starts Game 3 in Montreal, the site of his NHL debut, a 2-1 Caps victory.

3. Eric Belanger will be a healthy scratch at some point.

He's currently slotted as the 3rd line center between Eric Fehr and Jason Chimera, a role he's well suited for. But Belanger never got into an offensive groove with the Caps, aside from his sweet goal in the last game of the season and a nice cross ice pass to Tomas Fleischman in OT against the Canes. Six points in 17 games while logging over 14 minutes of ice time is a massive underachievement for a guy like Belanger, even if the Caps offense does not necessarily need him to score. With Brendan Morrison likely on the bench for Game 1, Belanger is replaceable should he struggle.

4. The "other Alex" will be the most dominant player on the ice.

Alex Semin's career playoff numbers: 21 games played, 8 goals, 14 assists. The maddening inconsistencies we're accustomed to seeing from Sasha in the regular season usually dissipate in the postseason. As strange as it sounds, he almost seems to relish the physical play in the playoffs. It brings out the best in him because it focuses him. Alex Ovechkin will garner most of the attention, and rightfully so, but Alex Semin will quietly be the Caps best offensive player. Count on it.

5. John Carlson will play like a seasoned veteran.

He has been for quite some time. You'd suspect a rookie in his first playoff experience, especially one with only 22 NHL games to his credit, to make a few mistakes that you simply attribute to youth and nerves. Don't expect this from Carlson. He plays with maturity well beyond his years and is already one of the Caps' top four defensemen (if not higher), even if his minutes don't necessarily reflect this. Without any power play time, don't expect many points. What you should expect are crisp passes, solid defensive positioning, and physical play that make you scratch your head and say, "Why the hell is Tom Poti skating 6 more minutes per night than John Carlson?!" Oh, and maybe just one unbelievably clutch goal.





Bonus Prediction: Caps in 6.


Let's do this. Hanta yo.