Friday, October 23, 2009

Week 7 Picks: Do The Skins Have a Chance?

After failing to live up to the ludicrous line last week, Vegas has instilled the Skins as solid 7 point underdogs to the home. I think this line is the first sign of Vegas viewing the Skins as the abortion we are. I can't help but wonder how high this line could have gone had the Iggles taken care of business in Oakland and firmly instilled themselves as incapable of losing to this train wreck Redskin team. The Eagles are Football Outsiders' (FO) #2 ranked team, while the Skins are sitting ugly at #22.

So does Philly's poop-fest against Oakland mean the Skins have a chance? The Raiders won by controlling the Eagle offense and getting just enough offense. Anyone watching the game will tell you that Richard Seymour absolutely dominated that game, just unstoppable. Well, we do have the most dominant DT in the NFL, so we've got that going for us.........The Raider defense also confused the injury-riddled Iggle O-line by using a lot of exotic blitzes, in what mostly looked to me like a type of zone blitz scheme. I will post at greater length on this, but the Redskins defense is completely vanilla. I can't believe Greg Blache's job isn't under fire given the production he gets from this talent. The Raiders basically outcoached the Iggles last week, and I have never seen Blache do something approaching this.

On to the picks...............the Football Outsiders (FO) picking system continues its impressive performance of the past few weeks, going 9-5 in week 6 and finally reaching .500 for the season. FO is rolling now, and getting to the point where I trust their system more than my own picks. FO's 'locks of the week' are now 2-2 with no 'locks' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 11-15, and their 'stay away' picks are 32-28. FO noted that this is a terrible week for picking games.

The standings:
Sports Guy: 9-5 last week, 58-32 overall (64.4%)
DCLS: 5-9 last week, 46-44 overall (51.1%)
Random monkey throwing shit at a dartboard: 45-45 overall (50.0%)
Football Outsiders: 9-5 last week, 45-45 overall (50.0%)

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence, and I have bolded a team wherever I differ (home teams in CAPS).
  1. Chicago +1.5 over CINCINNATI - These are the 2 teams I am having the most trouble understanding. I am tempted to take the Bungles just so I can root for Ochocinco and not Cutler, but I'll swallow my pride and take the points.
  2. MIAMI +7 over New Orleans - The Saints are the #1 offense and #2 defense by FO's metrics, wow. Not sure how you can't roll with the hot hand here.
  3. WASHINGTON +7 over Philadelphia - Philly is only their #11 straight-up pick, so FO actually thinks the Skins have a shot at winning this. Excuse me while I pull my head out of my ass. My take is that the Skins played to the level of their competition last year, and think we don't get obliterated here, and maybe, just maybe, the football gods will stop peeing on me (and maybe, just maybe Eva Mendes will ask me on a date tomorrow).
  4. HOUSTON -3 over San Francisco - Houston is the 3rd team I can't quite understand, and the 49ers are an overachieving unit thanks to the awesomeness of Mike Singletary. Matt Schaub might sprain something by just looking at Singletary's manliness, but I'll take the talent and hope Singletary doesn't invoke Jesus against me.
  5. OAKLAND +7 over New York Jets - You see?!? Dirty Sanchez isn't such hot shit and the Skins did not screw up by not trading up for him. He is the 2nd worst QB in the league by the metrics thus far, ahead of only his counterpart this week, Jamarcus Russell. Last week was a product of a good game plan against a banged-up team. The Jets O-line should not have the same problems against Seymour and co.
  6. NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over Arizona - This is a seemingly an easy teaser pick even though the Giants D is secretly putting out like a drunk sorority girl. And just because everyone's getting some, does not mean you shouldn't too. And yes, this makes the Skins the guy who even the drunk sorority girl won't touch, so we're probably some combination of fat, ugly, creepy, and wasted.
  7. Indianapolis -14 over ST. LOUIS - Another obvious pick, which made me think, how many points would I have to get to take the Rams? I am gonna go with 25. I would start thinking about it at 21.
  8. KANSAS CITY +5.5 over San Diego - Let's not get crazy about the Chiefs. I saw nothing last week to indicate that they are good. Why does FO have this pick? While the Chiefs are their #25 ranked team, the Chargers are just 1 spot ahead, at #24. There is a bit of a gap between the 2, but nowhere near enough for 5.5 points. The Bolts are their 11th of 12 straight-up picks, meaning this game should be even. I was going to take the Bolts until I read this.
  9. Buffalo +6.5 over CAROLINA - I think this game wins the award for being the first worst game of the week not involving the Skins since week 1. Yay? The highlights from this game will even suck.
  10. Green Bay -7 over CLEVELAND - Another obvious teaser pick. I also enjoy rooting against Derek Anderson, he is like a wounded dog that needs the Michael Vick treatment to be put out of its misery. Except the wounded dog has 24 million reasons to live. Too soon my ass for both of those jokes.
  11. New England -15 over TAMPA BAY - Is the Pats O back? For FO to give 15 points means this is a bigger mismatch than Mike Williams against a Chinese buffet.
  12. Atlanta +4 over DALLAS - I love this pick, and am surprised FO has this so low. The Falcons are ranked slightly higher and getting points, so not sure what I'm missing here.
  13. PITTSBURGH -4 over Minnesota - So I get to take the Vikings, who I think are the better team, and get 4 points. Also not sure what I'm missing here.
To recap, this is an abnormally awful week for betting. You should believe that statement because FO said it and has a strong handle on picking games at this point. Most importantly, FO likes the Skins this week and even sees them with a chance to beat one of the best teams in the league. How can I write that and not sound sarcastic?
(Image courtesy of


  1. I'm with FO on Miami covering +7 at home against New Orleans. Not only that, I think they'll win the game outright. New Orleans is coming off a huge high, obliterating the Giants, and I think this is a classic trap/letdown game.

  2. like the pix

    good to find your site

    enjoyed your work on b/r

    added you to my roll and am a follower now

  3. skins covering...






  4. I tend to agree with anonymous. Every word.

  5. Chris Samuels just retired. Ugh.

  6. Just to top off the worst week in Redskins history

  7. We are so fucked.



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