What I Learned From One Glorious Wizards Game

We have a long season ahead of us, but I am having trouble containing my woody after watching the Wiz beatup a 50-win team from last year, on the road no less! With the team undergoing so many changes from last season, there were a lot of questions going into this opener, but I think we already have a few answers. It is never too early to pass judgment, so I will go through my list of 10 burning questions and see where we already stand.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

Agent Zero is back, and close to fully healthy. The only reservation I have after one game is that he did this against a geriatric defender in Jason Kidd and a midget in JJ Barea. His burst looked pretty good, and more importantly, his passing and distribution looked great. Gil is clearly going to play at an all-star level, but how great he plays will determine how far we go.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

As stated, his distribution and passing were great, indicating that he has become a more true PG. Floor leadership will only be a small part of the battle though and the off-the-court leadership will be hard to determine for a while.

8) Can Flip Saunders get this team to play defense?

I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but the answer in game one was a resounding, "yes'. We held a team below 40% from the field that averaged over 46% last season. Maybe Dallas was a bit rusty, but so far so good here.


7) Can Caron Butler fit in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Still not sure on this one. Tough Juice had a 'quiet' 16-8 while shooting 6-17. I kept looking for the offense to run through him whenever Agent Zero was on the bench, but it seems that Flip is set on having his guards initiate. Despite the change in offense, if a few more shots had fallen for Caron, he would have been over his averages from a year ago of 20.8 ppg and 6.2 rpg.


6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?


Both had great games, with Miller extremely efficient and fitting in nicely with his teammates. Foye was a pleasant surprise, shooting 8-14 and finishing with 19 points. I wouldn't fire up the Foye bandwagon just yet though, as he had a hot shooting night and only managed 1 assist in 30 minutes despite doing a lot of ball handling. Yes, Foye was good, but I don't think he'll be this good in every game. Miller, however, can clearly be the glue guy that this team desperately needs.

5) Who will be the odd men out in Saunders' rotation?

Flip seems to already have his 8-man rotation set, with Arenas, Miller, Butler, Haywood, Blatche, Foye, Stevenson, and Oberto soaking up all but 3 minutes of PT. It is unclear what will happen when Jamison returns - will this be a 9-man rotation, or will Oberto sit? I like that Oberto brought some grit amongst our offensive talent, so would like to see him in the rotation when Jamison is back.

As assumed, Mike James, Javaris Crittendon, Dominic McGuire, and Javale McGee saw limited or no action. The big surprise here was DCLS friend Nick Young (aka Young Sushi), who did not leave the bench after averaging over 22 minutes a game last season. I expected Young Sushi to get 10-15 mins per game and split or even take the role being played by Deshawn Stevenson. I spoke with Nick on Sunday night and he didn't mention any health issues or problems going into Dallas, so this looks like Flip's decision. I was not impressed with Stevenson though, and would like to see Young Sushi get a shot given that he has some upside.


4) Will the Wizards make another big trade?

With Mike James' expiring contract and a collection of young talent riding the pine last night, it appears that the Wiz definitely have pieces of value they would be willing to deal. Maybe Grunfeld wants to hold onto some of the young guys, but last night should only give ammunition to any trade rumors.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

So far so good.......bang head on wood....


2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The only one given a chance last night was Blatche, and he was great. On athletic talent alone, he could average 16-7 with 30+ minutes (after an efficient 20-7 last night). I also thought he moved well off the ball, which, combined with his athleticism, will make for a lot of easy buckets. Once Jamison returns, his minutes will drop, but he should be playing ahead of Oberto.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I think I undershot this with a 45-win prediction. I heard Mark Cuban on 106.7 yesterday say that he thinks the Wiz can win 50 games this year. Well, after beating Cuban's 50-win team convincingly, I think he's right. The game at Atlanta on Friday night will be a big indicator about the race for the 4th spot in the East.

(Image courtesy of the AP via espn.com)

Ten Burning Questions for the Wizards in 2009-10

April 4th, 2007.

That was the date when Agent-0 injured his knee in a first-quarter collision with Gerald Wallace. With that knee went the Wizards chances of being anything more than 1st round cannon fodder for the elite teams in the Eastern Conference.

2 years, 6 months, 3 weeks, 2 days.

Ever since that fateful night, the Wizards have been stuck in mediocorty. You can do worse than a core of Tough Juice and Antwan Jamison, but they alone will never be enough to take a team further than the 1st round of the playoffs. If a team isn't gunning for a title or rebuilding, then what exactly is there to pique our interest? We needed Gil, and we still need him.

This is not just any season opener for the Wizards, this is a return to relevance. I would not say that I feel excitement as much as relief that Agent Zero, and the Wizards, are back.

With opening tipoff about 24 hours away in Dallas, here are the 10 burning questions for the Wizards this season.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

The answer is looking like "yes". By all accounts, the knee is back to what it was and the bigger issue is looking like rust and adapting to a new role. I hate to put a lot of stock in the preseason, and a knee injury for a guy whose game revolves around quickness is particularly concerning, but it looks like we still have a superstar on our hands. Maybe the better question now is whether Gil will be able to become a more valuable player and carry this team beyond the first round of the playoffs, which is something he could not do before the injuries. As much I'd like to talk about X-factors and other improvements, this team will only go as far as Agent Zero will take it.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

We may never learn the answer to this question. Stopping his blog and avoiding the media look like steps in the right direction, but what he does behind the scenes will be what matters. I would like to say that Gil should be himself while taking a leadership role, but look at the best leaders around the league: Lebron, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, and D-Wade, all of those guys have achieved a level of maturity that Agent Zero has not. Lebron looks like he was at the same point last year as Gil is this year. Lebron still has a playful side, but clearly made the decision to be the leader of that team, which comes with being the dominant player on a team.

8) Can Flip Saunders get this team to play defense?

This Wizards group will likely always be offense first, but tightening-up the defense could be the difference between another first-round playoff exit, and having some hope of going deep in the playoffs. Arenas, Jamison, and Butler are great offensive talents who have never been great defenders, so Saunders is fighting an uphill battle and surely realizes that this group is best suited to playing a fast-paced system. I realize that if Rip Hamilton became an okay defender in Detroit, then there is hope for everyone, but that was while surrounded by great defenders on a slow-paced team. The Wizards have one guy and one guy only who is a great NBA defender: Brendan Haywood. You want to know the difference between winning 19 games last year and 43 in 07-08? Brendan Haywood. He has quietly been one of the better defensive players in the NBA for awhile, and partly covered for the deficiencies of the big name players on this team. With Deshawn Stevenson losing playing time, Saunders' job will begin with Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the starting SG spot eventually be determined by Mike Miller, Randy Foye, or Young Sushi becoming a good defensive player.

7) Can Caron Butler fit-in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Gil is making every effort to be more of a pure PG by passing more often, which should help him integrate back into the team, but who knows what will happen once the regular season starts and the competitive juices get going. Would it shock anyone to see Gil go back to being a shoot-first guy once he feels confident in his knee? Meanwhile, Butler will have to take a slight step back to a co-starring role regardless of what Arenas does. Tough Juice was better when the offense ran through him, so his effectiveness may be diminished. The awesomeness of his nickname, however, remains intact.

6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?

(Image courtesy of reclinergm.com)

I posted about this when the trade happened, but clearly these two improve the Wizards. The question is how much do they improve the Wizards, and is that improvement worth the price we paid? The issue for me is that this trade moved the Wizards upside from 2nd round of the playoffs to.....the Eastern Conference finals? With the Big Three signed to big deals, rebuilding would have been difficult to achieve, but if you are going for a championship, swing for the fences, don't settle for hitting a double. Vince Carter was had for a similar/lesser package, and T-Mac would have been available for less. Do either of those guys make me excited? No, but at least the upside of the team with another all-star would have given us some kind of hope to win a championship. I just think this move wasn't enough.

5) Who will be the odd men out in Saunders' rotation?

The starting lineup will likely be Arenas, Miller, Butler, Jamison, and Haywood. After that, it gets very foggy. Saunders is known for using an 8-man rotation, but given the depth of this team, I would not put money on 8 being a magic number. The preseason didn't provide much in the way of clues, as the starters rotated every game. In the front-court, Blatche, McGee, and Oberto appear to be fighting for two spots. In the back-court, Foye, Young Sushi, and Deshawn Stevenson look to be fighting for two spots. Right now it looks like Blatche, Oberto, Foye, and Stevenson will all be in the rotation.

4) Will the Wizards make another big trade?

Let's see, lots of depth, established players likely to be underutilized in a short rotation, young players, one veteran with an expiring contract, obvious holes in the front court and at SG............this sounds like a team in need of a trade. Except, we just made one, so what gives? The big trade brought depth to our deepest position, which begs the question of whether this was the first of more than one trade. The team sorely lacks front-court grit and still lacks the upside to compete with the Celtics, Cavs, and Magic, so should be looking to make a move. If we could somehow package Foye, Miller, and something else into a star SG, then this trade would make a lot more sense. Grunfeld's history shows that he is great at turning around teams, but not great at getting them to make the final step to championship contender. I can assure everyone that I will be mercilessly pounding the refresh key on hoopshype rumors, hoping that a big move is coming.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

(Image courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

That picture is definitely worth 1,000 words, and with Jamison already out for 10 games or more, the answer already appears to be "no". The team is the deepest it has been in recent memory, but the four guys who have to stay healthy are Agent Zero, Tough Juice, Jamison, and Haywood. Everyone else is relatively replaceable, but those four need to stay on the floor, something they have never accomplished for a full season. If Jamison missing 10-15 games is the worst of our injuries, then we will be in for a great season.

2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The Wizards have spent the offseason adding veterans to compete immediately, but this has come at the expense of developing our young players. Some of the honus is on the players, but the biggest problem this year will be playing time. Fortunately for Javale McGee and Andray Blatche, almost all of the offseason additions were in the backcourt, so those two are guaranteed at least some playing time in the rotation. McGee, however, does not appear to be a favorite of Saunders, and may only be a bit player this season. Javaris Crittenton and Dominic McGuire are not in the rotation right now either. The one guy who has made a leap forward and claimed some playing time is DCLS friend and favorite, Young Sushi. Coming into the offseason, it looked like he had zero chance to beat-out either Foye or Stevenson to earn almost any PT. Well, Young Sushi became a different player this offseason and in addition to making us look smart and outgrowing his new nickname, has forced Saunders to include him in the rotation. In the meantime, regardless of how much they play, enjoy the personalities of Epic Vale and Young Sushi, who have together taken the mantle of best personality from Agent Zero.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I've said it already, but the ceiling for this team currently looks like the 2nd round of the playoffs. I think the Magic will win our division, which leaves us battling for the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. With the Cavs, Celtics, and Magic looking head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, getting the 5th seed or better is crucial if the Wiz are to have a chance of getting out of the 1st round. Chicago, Philly, and Atlanta will compete with us, but I think we can get a top-5 seed. Vegas has our over/under at 41.5 wins, and as the 8th most likely team to win the East, both of which indicate the Wiz are being underrated. I believe we will eclipse those projections with 45 wins earning us the 5th seed in the East, but getting beyond the 2nd round would likely require an injury to Lebron, Dwight Howard, or one of the key Celtics, while we stay healthy. This Wizard team may well be the best we've had in awhile, the problem is that the competition is also the best it's been.

Despite these competitive hurdles, the Wizards are back both literally and figuratively, and not a moment too soon.

Wizards Trade the #5 Pick for Mediocrity

I know I mentioned this trade as a possibility, but what the fuck?!? For those of you living in a cave, the Wiz traded the #5 overall pick and 3 garbage contracts for Mike Miller and Randy Foye, who both have 1 year remaining on their contract; in other words, the Wizards traded the #5 overall pick for 1 year of Mike Miller and Randy Foye (and some cap room in 2011). Why make a move so far before the draft? With Chad Ford now reporting that the dreamy one, Tyreke Evans, and Thabeet will all be gone by the #5 pick, our leverage was dropping by the minute, so Grunfeld may have been forced to pull the trigger before other teams lost interest.

Ernie might as well have pulled the trigger on the gun pointed at the Wiz fanbase. I can't link this post enough from Bullets Forever, it gives a great statistical analysis of the ideal backcourt mate for Agent-0 and finds Mike Miller as a great fit, as he is an almost ideal offensive compliment. Even so, a team whose 3 stars are all bad to horrible defenders decides to fill-in the role players around that core with more guys who can't play defense? Haven't we seen this movie before from the Phoenix Suns, except with a much better group of talent? Yes, the Wizards are a better team than they were yesterday, but not better enough to contend for anything more than the Eastern Conference finals if we catch a few breaks.

First and foremost, I think the Wizards should tear down and rebuild. Even though we have a lot of money tied-up in our 'big-3', I still like the idea of stockpiling young talent, either with the #5 pick, or trading for a young player already in the league who could develop. That said, given that Gil isn't going anywhere for awhile, we are almost forced to find someone who pairs well with him and try to make a run with our current group for 2 more years (until Jamison becomes Jamison's expiring contract).

The big problem is that we are far away from competing with the Cavs, Magic, and Celtics. Even if Arenas is back to his old self and everyone can stay healthy, we are still not as good as the top-3 in the East, let alone the the best in the West. In order to have any chance to compete, we needed to do something drastic; if we are not rebuilding, then swing for the fences with this trade. Mike Miller is a fine player, but does he really put us over the top? Foye is a nice backup to have, and gives us a backcourt with insane depth, but this team is still short on defense and too dependent on Agent-0 returning to form. That is why, I believe, a better course of action would have been to trade for, drum roll please.........T-Mac! That's right, he hogs the ball, his team improved after he was injured last year, and he looks like he is high all the time (nothing new to the Wiz after Rod Strickland), but he has everything to play for this year and gives us a legitimate all-star who can pickup Agent-0's slack. Maybe the team falls flat on its face with T-Mac, or even Jesus Shuttlesworth, but at least we have a higher ceiling than with Mike Miller and Randy Foye.

The Wiz are not done trading, as we have too many guards and too few big-men, so there will be another trade, possibly during the draft, and likely for a veteran big-man. Maybe Grunfeld will pull a rabbit out of his ass with some decent young guards and Mike James' contract as trade chips, but the upside on this team is just not high enough. For one mediocre season, we traded a potentially valuable young player who could be with this team for years.

How is that supposed to make me happy?

(Image via cbcsports.ca)