Wizards Deconstruct, Suck Slightly Less

The Wizards finally began the rebuilding process, 2 years too late. Rebuilding is a stretch, because the term implies we actually 'built' something, so I will say 'deconstruct'.

First, I am happy that the Wizards finally moved Jamison and Butler; I have been in support of moving these guys for over a year. Sure we didn't get a lot in return other than salary cap space, still have the corpse of Gilbert Arenas on the roster, and are unlikely to get Lebron, D-Wade, or Bosh, but we had to move these 2 guys. This team wasn't going very far with Butler and Jamison, so we had to rebuild, and it is better to get the process started sooner rather than later. Another benefit of trading the veterans is that JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche, Nick Young and co. can get some serious playing time that will help them develop, and also help the Wizards better evaluate what we have in these young players. The third benefit is that the Wizards need as many ping pong balls in the lottery as possible, and Butler, Jamison, and Haywood were supposedly diminishing that number of ping pong balls, although they could have fooled me this year.

The fourth benefit is that, in addition to clearing cap space, Jamison and Butler could theoretically be traded for young players or draft picks that could jump-start the rebuilding process. We already have a solid core with Ricky Rubio and Dejuan Blair.............well scratch that, but we had to get more than just cap space/relief in return for these guys. The problem with the Wizards deals? We didn't get quite enough for these 2 guys. Tough Juice, in particular, is being paid a very reasonable salary of under $10 million with 2 years left, so should have some legitimate value despite his awful performance this season. It was nice to get rid of Deshawn Stevenson, but that was the price of including Haywood. The problem is that we got back a bunch of guys with expiring contracts, and not one guy who has a lot of upside. Josh Howard is a very good player, and according to Basketball Prospectus's WARP system, similar in value to Caron Butler if you remove Howard's down year last season, but is 29. Couldn't the Wizards have squeezed Rodrigue Beaubois out of the Mavs? If not, then why not find another willing partner - there had to be another interested team that would have at least offered a draft pick. The bright side is that Josh Howard's off-court personality will at least entertain me.

After that moderate fail, the Wiz turned around and made a pretty solid deal for Jamison. Unlike Tough Juice, Cybertawn had an unfriendly contract and seemingly only had 1 team interested in his services; going into the deadline, I was actually more concerned about the Wiz getting value back for Jamison than Butler. Not only did we not take back any long-term salary, but we picked up a late first round pick, and a 26 year old with some upside, Al Thornton. Basketball Prospectus does not see much hope for Thornton becoming a good player, but at least there's a chance.

Overall, I'm extremely happy that the Wiz finally pulled the trigger, but I slam my head into my desk thinking that we should have made these deals a year ago, when Jamison and Butler would have yielded better returns, and we likely would have held our draft picks and could be talking about the Rubio and Blair era. It seems that we got about as much as we could out of Jamison, and it is entirely possible that we also did the best we could for Tough Juice. Both guys gave us some great service, and were, by all accounts, stand up guys, so we should wish them well. As backwards as it sounds, I'll be rooting for the Cavs this Spring, so Cybertawn can win a ring.

(Image courtesy of cdn.bleacherreport.com)

The Wizards nearing the Quarter Pole: A Pattern I Don't Like

The Wiz season is following a depressing pattern. I projected the Wiz to win 45 games, that is until we outplayed a 50-win team from last year, on the road, in the season opener. 50 wins definitely looked like a distinct possibility. Eh, not so much..........we then won only 1 of our next 8, and that 1 win was over the Nets, who may end up as the worst team in history. Those 9 games were the ones where we were without Cybertawn.

The Cybertawn portion of the season commenced with a win over the Cavs in game #10, so all is good again right? As in the season opener, it turned out to just be a tease, because since that win, we have gone 4-5 and currently stand at 7-12. So what's the problem and what does the rest of the season hold?

Bullets Forever beat me to it with this nice article, but the problem is that the star players aren't performing. Jamison has been good, so has Haywood, Blatche, Miller, but Agent-0 and Tough Juice have not been good enough. Yeah, they've been good, but we need them to be All-Stars. As I wrote in my season preview, "As much as I'd like to talk about X-factors and other improvements, this team will only go as far as Agent Zero will take it." There have been a lot of positives this season, but the poor performance is on the shoulder of Gil and Caron, that's the end of the discussion as to what the problem is. How to fix it or why this problem exists is a different story.

I think the reason for the struggle is the new coach/system and that these guys have not played together for awhile (remember, Gil has missed almost 2 full seasons). Caron is clearly struggling to find his role in this offense; he understood his job as the #1 guy the past couple years, but is having trouble being as efficient and productive as a #2. Gil, meanwhile, seems to be lacking some of his aggressiveness. I understand that Flip Saunders wants him to be more of a pure PG, and Gil is making an effort to curtail his boyish personality, but I don't like it. A hobo in Chinatown once told me, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Who cares if he is a fun-loving guy with a big mouth? I don't know who told Gil that 'acting mature' would make him a more valuable player, but right now that advice is looking terrible. I want the blogging, aggressive, Hibachi-calling locker room prankster back, and the Wiz are probably thinking the same thing too.

Gil and Caron have never been great defenders, but it is actually on the offensive end where they are struggling. John Hollinger has us ranked 20th in defensive efficiency, and 24th in offensive efficiency. Although the 20th best defense is nothing to brag about, we are certainly improved on that end of the floor, and enough so that if we had the offensive efficiency of the healthy Hibachi years, we'd be looking at a dangerously good team. As a comparison, Atlanta is ranked 4th in offensive and 17th in defensive efficiency and have been one of the top-5 teams in the league thus far.

As for the bright spots other than the defense, let's start and end with Young Sushi. After writing him off early in the season, he was given a 2nd chance and has clearly thrust himself back into the rotation. The Wiz are 4-3 with him as a starter, although I will say that the good record probably has more to do with Jamison being back than Young Sushi in the starting lineup. The highlights of these 7 games include 3 20-point performances and, more importantly, great defensive performances. He's held Andre Iguadala to 2-10 from the field, D-Wade to 6-19, and Stephen Jackson to 4-12. The defense is particularly interesting because his metrics have indicated that Nick is an above-average defender, but the 'eyeball test' has said otherwise. Well, maybe our eyeballs are deceiving us; just because he doesn't have a mean streak and isn't pesky like Bruce Bowen does not mean he is not performing at a high level. Nick isn't a defensive stopper by any means, but is proving that the metrics are right.

Nick still needs to learn to pass a little more often, holding a 10:11 assist to turnover ratio in these 7 games, but Deshawn Stevenson should not leave the bench for anything other than garbage time at this point. I don't think Nick's a versatile defender, but against perimeter shooters and slashers, he can be effective enough to take some of Mike Miller's minutes. The interesting thing now is that with the Wiz needing offensive help more than defensive, Miller may actually be the better fit. Even if Nick does lose some minutes in the near future, he can still provide moments like this:

So where is this team headed? John Hollinger thinks we will be shedding salary at the trade deadline, but I'm not so sure. After the top-4 teams in the East, the 5th seed in the East is a mere 3.5 games ahead of us, standing at 11-9, and may never be that far ahead of us. That said, we will need to win at least 43 games to get that 5th seed, and we are already 2.5 games under .500. With 63 games left, that means we will need to win at least 36 of those (36-27) to be .500. Even though we look like a .500 team since Jamison's return, and certainly have room for improvement, going 36-27 the rest of the way is not realistic at this point. A more realistic 40-41 wins will likely get us into the playoffs, but just make us first-round cannon fodder for the Celtics, Magic, or Cavs. Ummmm, I'll just pretend I didn't do that math and replay the belt slap video a few times........

(Image courtesy of media.nowpublic.net/)

What I Learned From One Glorious Wizards Game

We have a long season ahead of us, but I am having trouble containing my woody after watching the Wiz beatup a 50-win team from last year, on the road no less! With the team undergoing so many changes from last season, there were a lot of questions going into this opener, but I think we already have a few answers. It is never too early to pass judgment, so I will go through my list of 10 burning questions and see where we already stand.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

Agent Zero is back, and close to fully healthy. The only reservation I have after one game is that he did this against a geriatric defender in Jason Kidd and a midget in JJ Barea. His burst looked pretty good, and more importantly, his passing and distribution looked great. Gil is clearly going to play at an all-star level, but how great he plays will determine how far we go.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

As stated, his distribution and passing were great, indicating that he has become a more true PG. Floor leadership will only be a small part of the battle though and the off-the-court leadership will be hard to determine for a while.

8) Can Flip Saunders get this team to play defense?

I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but the answer in game one was a resounding, "yes'. We held a team below 40% from the field that averaged over 46% last season. Maybe Dallas was a bit rusty, but so far so good here.


7) Can Caron Butler fit in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Still not sure on this one. Tough Juice had a 'quiet' 16-8 while shooting 6-17. I kept looking for the offense to run through him whenever Agent Zero was on the bench, but it seems that Flip is set on having his guards initiate. Despite the change in offense, if a few more shots had fallen for Caron, he would have been over his averages from a year ago of 20.8 ppg and 6.2 rpg.


6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?


Both had great games, with Miller extremely efficient and fitting in nicely with his teammates. Foye was a pleasant surprise, shooting 8-14 and finishing with 19 points. I wouldn't fire up the Foye bandwagon just yet though, as he had a hot shooting night and only managed 1 assist in 30 minutes despite doing a lot of ball handling. Yes, Foye was good, but I don't think he'll be this good in every game. Miller, however, can clearly be the glue guy that this team desperately needs.

5) Who will be the odd men out in Saunders' rotation?

Flip seems to already have his 8-man rotation set, with Arenas, Miller, Butler, Haywood, Blatche, Foye, Stevenson, and Oberto soaking up all but 3 minutes of PT. It is unclear what will happen when Jamison returns - will this be a 9-man rotation, or will Oberto sit? I like that Oberto brought some grit amongst our offensive talent, so would like to see him in the rotation when Jamison is back.

As assumed, Mike James, Javaris Crittendon, Dominic McGuire, and Javale McGee saw limited or no action. The big surprise here was DCLS friend Nick Young (aka Young Sushi), who did not leave the bench after averaging over 22 minutes a game last season. I expected Young Sushi to get 10-15 mins per game and split or even take the role being played by Deshawn Stevenson. I spoke with Nick on Sunday night and he didn't mention any health issues or problems going into Dallas, so this looks like Flip's decision. I was not impressed with Stevenson though, and would like to see Young Sushi get a shot given that he has some upside.


4) Will the Wizards make another big trade?

With Mike James' expiring contract and a collection of young talent riding the pine last night, it appears that the Wiz definitely have pieces of value they would be willing to deal. Maybe Grunfeld wants to hold onto some of the young guys, but last night should only give ammunition to any trade rumors.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

So far so good.......bang head on wood....


2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The only one given a chance last night was Blatche, and he was great. On athletic talent alone, he could average 16-7 with 30+ minutes (after an efficient 20-7 last night). I also thought he moved well off the ball, which, combined with his athleticism, will make for a lot of easy buckets. Once Jamison returns, his minutes will drop, but he should be playing ahead of Oberto.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I think I undershot this with a 45-win prediction. I heard Mark Cuban on 106.7 yesterday say that he thinks the Wiz can win 50 games this year. Well, after beating Cuban's 50-win team convincingly, I think he's right. The game at Atlanta on Friday night will be a big indicator about the race for the 4th spot in the East.

(Image courtesy of the AP via espn.com)

Ten Burning Questions for the Wizards in 2009-10

April 4th, 2007.

That was the date when Agent-0 injured his knee in a first-quarter collision with Gerald Wallace. With that knee went the Wizards chances of being anything more than 1st round cannon fodder for the elite teams in the Eastern Conference.

2 years, 6 months, 3 weeks, 2 days.

Ever since that fateful night, the Wizards have been stuck in mediocorty. You can do worse than a core of Tough Juice and Antwan Jamison, but they alone will never be enough to take a team further than the 1st round of the playoffs. If a team isn't gunning for a title or rebuilding, then what exactly is there to pique our interest? We needed Gil, and we still need him.

This is not just any season opener for the Wizards, this is a return to relevance. I would not say that I feel excitement as much as relief that Agent Zero, and the Wizards, are back.

With opening tipoff about 24 hours away in Dallas, here are the 10 burning questions for the Wizards this season.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

The answer is looking like "yes". By all accounts, the knee is back to what it was and the bigger issue is looking like rust and adapting to a new role. I hate to put a lot of stock in the preseason, and a knee injury for a guy whose game revolves around quickness is particularly concerning, but it looks like we still have a superstar on our hands. Maybe the better question now is whether Gil will be able to become a more valuable player and carry this team beyond the first round of the playoffs, which is something he could not do before the injuries. As much I'd like to talk about X-factors and other improvements, this team will only go as far as Agent Zero will take it.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

We may never learn the answer to this question. Stopping his blog and avoiding the media look like steps in the right direction, but what he does behind the scenes will be what matters. I would like to say that Gil should be himself while taking a leadership role, but look at the best leaders around the league: Lebron, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, and D-Wade, all of those guys have achieved a level of maturity that Agent Zero has not. Lebron looks like he was at the same point last year as Gil is this year. Lebron still has a playful side, but clearly made the decision to be the leader of that team, which comes with being the dominant player on a team.

8) Can Flip Saunders get this team to play defense?

This Wizards group will likely always be offense first, but tightening-up the defense could be the difference between another first-round playoff exit, and having some hope of going deep in the playoffs. Arenas, Jamison, and Butler are great offensive talents who have never been great defenders, so Saunders is fighting an uphill battle and surely realizes that this group is best suited to playing a fast-paced system. I realize that if Rip Hamilton became an okay defender in Detroit, then there is hope for everyone, but that was while surrounded by great defenders on a slow-paced team. The Wizards have one guy and one guy only who is a great NBA defender: Brendan Haywood. You want to know the difference between winning 19 games last year and 43 in 07-08? Brendan Haywood. He has quietly been one of the better defensive players in the NBA for awhile, and partly covered for the deficiencies of the big name players on this team. With Deshawn Stevenson losing playing time, Saunders' job will begin with Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the starting SG spot eventually be determined by Mike Miller, Randy Foye, or Young Sushi becoming a good defensive player.

7) Can Caron Butler fit-in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Gil is making every effort to be more of a pure PG by passing more often, which should help him integrate back into the team, but who knows what will happen once the regular season starts and the competitive juices get going. Would it shock anyone to see Gil go back to being a shoot-first guy once he feels confident in his knee? Meanwhile, Butler will have to take a slight step back to a co-starring role regardless of what Arenas does. Tough Juice was better when the offense ran through him, so his effectiveness may be diminished. The awesomeness of his nickname, however, remains intact.

6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?

(Image courtesy of reclinergm.com)

I posted about this when the trade happened, but clearly these two improve the Wizards. The question is how much do they improve the Wizards, and is that improvement worth the price we paid? The issue for me is that this trade moved the Wizards upside from 2nd round of the playoffs to.....the Eastern Conference finals? With the Big Three signed to big deals, rebuilding would have been difficult to achieve, but if you are going for a championship, swing for the fences, don't settle for hitting a double. Vince Carter was had for a similar/lesser package, and T-Mac would have been available for less. Do either of those guys make me excited? No, but at least the upside of the team with another all-star would have given us some kind of hope to win a championship. I just think this move wasn't enough.

5) Who will be the odd men out in Saunders' rotation?

The starting lineup will likely be Arenas, Miller, Butler, Jamison, and Haywood. After that, it gets very foggy. Saunders is known for using an 8-man rotation, but given the depth of this team, I would not put money on 8 being a magic number. The preseason didn't provide much in the way of clues, as the starters rotated every game. In the front-court, Blatche, McGee, and Oberto appear to be fighting for two spots. In the back-court, Foye, Young Sushi, and Deshawn Stevenson look to be fighting for two spots. Right now it looks like Blatche, Oberto, Foye, and Stevenson will all be in the rotation.

4) Will the Wizards make another big trade?

Let's see, lots of depth, established players likely to be underutilized in a short rotation, young players, one veteran with an expiring contract, obvious holes in the front court and at SG............this sounds like a team in need of a trade. Except, we just made one, so what gives? The big trade brought depth to our deepest position, which begs the question of whether this was the first of more than one trade. The team sorely lacks front-court grit and still lacks the upside to compete with the Celtics, Cavs, and Magic, so should be looking to make a move. If we could somehow package Foye, Miller, and something else into a star SG, then this trade would make a lot more sense. Grunfeld's history shows that he is great at turning around teams, but not great at getting them to make the final step to championship contender. I can assure everyone that I will be mercilessly pounding the refresh key on hoopshype rumors, hoping that a big move is coming.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

(Image courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

That picture is definitely worth 1,000 words, and with Jamison already out for 10 games or more, the answer already appears to be "no". The team is the deepest it has been in recent memory, but the four guys who have to stay healthy are Agent Zero, Tough Juice, Jamison, and Haywood. Everyone else is relatively replaceable, but those four need to stay on the floor, something they have never accomplished for a full season. If Jamison missing 10-15 games is the worst of our injuries, then we will be in for a great season.

2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The Wizards have spent the offseason adding veterans to compete immediately, but this has come at the expense of developing our young players. Some of the honus is on the players, but the biggest problem this year will be playing time. Fortunately for Javale McGee and Andray Blatche, almost all of the offseason additions were in the backcourt, so those two are guaranteed at least some playing time in the rotation. McGee, however, does not appear to be a favorite of Saunders, and may only be a bit player this season. Javaris Crittenton and Dominic McGuire are not in the rotation right now either. The one guy who has made a leap forward and claimed some playing time is DCLS friend and favorite, Young Sushi. Coming into the offseason, it looked like he had zero chance to beat-out either Foye or Stevenson to earn almost any PT. Well, Young Sushi became a different player this offseason and in addition to making us look smart and outgrowing his new nickname, has forced Saunders to include him in the rotation. In the meantime, regardless of how much they play, enjoy the personalities of Epic Vale and Young Sushi, who have together taken the mantle of best personality from Agent Zero.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I've said it already, but the ceiling for this team currently looks like the 2nd round of the playoffs. I think the Magic will win our division, which leaves us battling for the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. With the Cavs, Celtics, and Magic looking head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, getting the 5th seed or better is crucial if the Wiz are to have a chance of getting out of the 1st round. Chicago, Philly, and Atlanta will compete with us, but I think we can get a top-5 seed. Vegas has our over/under at 41.5 wins, and as the 8th most likely team to win the East, both of which indicate the Wiz are being underrated. I believe we will eclipse those projections with 45 wins earning us the 5th seed in the East, but getting beyond the 2nd round would likely require an injury to Lebron, Dwight Howard, or one of the key Celtics, while we stay healthy. This Wizard team may well be the best we've had in awhile, the problem is that the competition is also the best it's been.

Despite these competitive hurdles, the Wizards are back both literally and figuratively, and not a moment too soon.