Wizards Draft Hangover

I have been getting asked about my take on the NBA draft a lot today, and a lot of people seem to think I was trying to give myself some time digest the flurry of activity from last night before posting..........not true. I was busy celebrating a great day for the Wizards by having I lost count how many John Wall Shots. Usually when a man drinks something blue and is not at the beach, questions are asked; but if wanting to spend the rest of my life around John Wall is wrong, then I don't want to be right. For those of you particularly interested, the bar I was at had to use blueberry vodka, sour mix, sprite, and maybe something else to make the shots blue. They tasted like Kool-Aid.

Round 1 of I lost count how many

My general takes on draft prospects are on Bullets Forever, with the disclosure that I watched fewer college basketball prospects this year than I can remember, so don't have the usual cutting insights (phenomenal work from last year if I do say so, other than calling it the WDE).

As far as the Wizards, I have been hearing almost nothing but complaining, but we can't forget that what really matters in the big picture is that we got Wall. As Chad Ford pointed out in his chat with Sports Guy earlier this week, each draft has 5 stars and 5 starters, and everyone else is either out of the league or just a rotation player. I know there are plenty examples of late picks turning into gold, but generally speaking, the draft is about getting a star. Wall's development is infinitely more important to this franchise than those of all the other guys we drafted our could have drafted combined. And in conclusion, we got Wall!

That Wizards hat does look good on him...

At first, I hated the Kirk Hinrich trade, but now do not see it as a problem. To be clear, we acquired Hinrich, who will be paid $9 million this year and $8 million next year, the 17th pick, and $3 million cash money for a future 2nd-rounder. All these media people are throwing around that the Wizards paid $17 million for the 17th pick and Oklahoma City paid only $2 million, but this is not exactly the case. Firstly, OKC traded the 32nd pick for the 18th, in addition to taking on Daequan Cook. Although this draft looks short on star power, it is definitely a deep one, and with the NBA finances likely tightening, the 2nd pick of the 2nd round is an extremely valuable asset. The future 2nd rounder that the Wizards gave up is significantly less valuable. Then there is the fact that $17 MILLION sounds insane, but the Wizards have plenty of cap space this season that they do not need, so the $9 million this year should not even be considered by anyone other than Ted Leonsis, as he is the one paying that money out his own pocket. The issue is all about 2 years from now, when we will be paying Hinrich again and will want as much cap flexibility as possible. The question really is whether Hinrich's contract will prevent us from making any move we want in the summer of 2011. Yes, there is a salary cap, but we can exceed it by paying a luxury tax and Leonsis is clearly okay with taking financial hits to help the team. Even if there is a situation where Hinrich's deal pushes us into luxury tax territory, then you must consider the $3 million cash we received. That money with interest, can account for us going about $2 million over the cap. That may have been confusing, but for all intents and purposes, Hinrich is only really being paid $6 million in 2011, which is not considerably more than some random Joe Blow. This is not to mention the fact that Hinrich will be 'Hinrich's expiring contract in the summer of 2011. Just ask yourself, will Hinrich's contract be what is preventing us from making a move? The answer is clearly no, although I envy Leonsis for being filthy rich enough to pay that kind of contract.

Hinrich as a player I actually think could be a nice fit next to John Wall in the '2 guard offense'. The only part of this I don't like is that I would rather have a young guy with some upside as our 3rd guard. Hinrich will cut into Young Sushi's minutes, and may force to Wizards to not re-sign Shaun Livingston. I think the success of the deal may hinge on whether Livingston leaves and if so, how he performs. Overall though I think the deal is neither good or bad, but just okay.

The Kevin Seraphin pick at #17 is fine by me as well. I have honestly not seen him play 1 second of basketball, but have heard that he's raw and possibly comparable to Serge Ibaka. My concern is that Seraphin sounds like he moved up draft boards because of Ibaka's success, which is one of those irrational ideas that leads to bad draft decisions. Ibaka's development has little or no relation to that of Seraphin. That said, Mike Prada of Bullets Forever heard from sources that Seraphin is the 'real deal' and could be here as early as next season. I don't particularly mind him spending another year in Europe, as the Wizards have a large amount of minutes accounted for thanks to Gil, Wall, Andray Blatche, and Javale McGee. With 4 picks, I have no problem with one of them staying overseas for a year. That said, the Wizards need to know what they have, and we won't know until Seraphin starts playing in the NBA. Again though, I am perfectly fine with this pick and will trust the pros.

The Trevor Booker selection and trade are where I start to wonder what the hell Ernie Grunfeld and co. were doing. I have a small problem with the selection, and a major one with the trade. I have seen him play and he was the entire Clemson team last year, seriously, but lacks great athleticism and thus has little upside. He was productive though, and has a good shot as a rotation guy. I would have preferred Damion James, who is by most accounts the better prospect, and fills a need at SF. Jordan Crawford and Daniel Orton were also still on the board and considered better prospects. I think the Wizards are in a position where we can draft best talent available that is not a PG, but I am not gaga over any of these guys. Maybe Booker proves us wrong, which is why I don't have a huge issue, although I personally would have taken James or Crawford.

The trade is the baffling part. From everything us outsiders know, Booker would have been available at #30 or even #35; Chad Ford's final mock draft had him going #44! We could have kept our 2 picks and still gotten Booker and a better prospect than Hamady Ndiaye. Even if the Wizards knew something we don't, and Booker went before #30, then we could have had our choice of 2 of the following: Lance Stephenson, Tiny Gallon, Terrico White, Darrington Hobson, Jarvis Varnado, Devin Ebanks, Solomon Alabi, or Stanley Robinson (and Hassan Whiteside was available at #30). Even if Booker and Ndiaye turns out to be great, this deal may not be a good one.

As far as Ndiaye is concerned, I do not know much about him, even though I watch a ton of Big East basketball as a Georgetown fan. He was Chad Ford's #79 ranked prospect, but I don't see a lot of other guys who excite me other than Stanley Robinson.

This draft also caps what has been a rough year for Ernie: the awful draft pick trade of 2010 when we could have taken Rubio or Stephen Curry, trading away Jamison and Butler for little in return, and now apparently botching the #30 and #35 picks of the draft. Overall though, Grunfeld will look good because we lucked into John freaking Wall, and that's the way we should all come away from tonight. Sure, Leonsis' wallet is taking a hit, and we could have guys with a better potential to make our rotation and have trade value, but we got the Great Wall and that is why I had one glorious hangover today - one that might even inspire me to buy some blue vodka.

(John Wall image courtesy of foxnews.com)

What I Learned From One Glorious Wizards Game

We have a long season ahead of us, but I am having trouble containing my woody after watching the Wiz beatup a 50-win team from last year, on the road no less! With the team undergoing so many changes from last season, there were a lot of questions going into this opener, but I think we already have a few answers. It is never too early to pass judgment, so I will go through my list of 10 burning questions and see where we already stand.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

Agent Zero is back, and close to fully healthy. The only reservation I have after one game is that he did this against a geriatric defender in Jason Kidd and a midget in JJ Barea. His burst looked pretty good, and more importantly, his passing and distribution looked great. Gil is clearly going to play at an all-star level, but how great he plays will determine how far we go.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

As stated, his distribution and passing were great, indicating that he has become a more true PG. Floor leadership will only be a small part of the battle though and the off-the-court leadership will be hard to determine for a while.

8) Can Flip Saunders get this team to play defense?

I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but the answer in game one was a resounding, "yes'. We held a team below 40% from the field that averaged over 46% last season. Maybe Dallas was a bit rusty, but so far so good here.


7) Can Caron Butler fit in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Still not sure on this one. Tough Juice had a 'quiet' 16-8 while shooting 6-17. I kept looking for the offense to run through him whenever Agent Zero was on the bench, but it seems that Flip is set on having his guards initiate. Despite the change in offense, if a few more shots had fallen for Caron, he would have been over his averages from a year ago of 20.8 ppg and 6.2 rpg.


6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?


Both had great games, with Miller extremely efficient and fitting in nicely with his teammates. Foye was a pleasant surprise, shooting 8-14 and finishing with 19 points. I wouldn't fire up the Foye bandwagon just yet though, as he had a hot shooting night and only managed 1 assist in 30 minutes despite doing a lot of ball handling. Yes, Foye was good, but I don't think he'll be this good in every game. Miller, however, can clearly be the glue guy that this team desperately needs.

5) Who will be the odd men out in Saunders' rotation?

Flip seems to already have his 8-man rotation set, with Arenas, Miller, Butler, Haywood, Blatche, Foye, Stevenson, and Oberto soaking up all but 3 minutes of PT. It is unclear what will happen when Jamison returns - will this be a 9-man rotation, or will Oberto sit? I like that Oberto brought some grit amongst our offensive talent, so would like to see him in the rotation when Jamison is back.

As assumed, Mike James, Javaris Crittendon, Dominic McGuire, and Javale McGee saw limited or no action. The big surprise here was DCLS friend Nick Young (aka Young Sushi), who did not leave the bench after averaging over 22 minutes a game last season. I expected Young Sushi to get 10-15 mins per game and split or even take the role being played by Deshawn Stevenson. I spoke with Nick on Sunday night and he didn't mention any health issues or problems going into Dallas, so this looks like Flip's decision. I was not impressed with Stevenson though, and would like to see Young Sushi get a shot given that he has some upside.


4) Will the Wizards make another big trade?

With Mike James' expiring contract and a collection of young talent riding the pine last night, it appears that the Wiz definitely have pieces of value they would be willing to deal. Maybe Grunfeld wants to hold onto some of the young guys, but last night should only give ammunition to any trade rumors.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

So far so good.......bang head on wood....


2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The only one given a chance last night was Blatche, and he was great. On athletic talent alone, he could average 16-7 with 30+ minutes (after an efficient 20-7 last night). I also thought he moved well off the ball, which, combined with his athleticism, will make for a lot of easy buckets. Once Jamison returns, his minutes will drop, but he should be playing ahead of Oberto.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I think I undershot this with a 45-win prediction. I heard Mark Cuban on 106.7 yesterday say that he thinks the Wiz can win 50 games this year. Well, after beating Cuban's 50-win team convincingly, I think he's right. The game at Atlanta on Friday night will be a big indicator about the race for the 4th spot in the East.

(Image courtesy of the AP via espn.com)

Ten Burning Questions for the Wizards in 2009-10

April 4th, 2007.

That was the date when Agent-0 injured his knee in a first-quarter collision with Gerald Wallace. With that knee went the Wizards chances of being anything more than 1st round cannon fodder for the elite teams in the Eastern Conference.

2 years, 6 months, 3 weeks, 2 days.

Ever since that fateful night, the Wizards have been stuck in mediocorty. You can do worse than a core of Tough Juice and Antwan Jamison, but they alone will never be enough to take a team further than the 1st round of the playoffs. If a team isn't gunning for a title or rebuilding, then what exactly is there to pique our interest? We needed Gil, and we still need him.

This is not just any season opener for the Wizards, this is a return to relevance. I would not say that I feel excitement as much as relief that Agent Zero, and the Wizards, are back.

With opening tipoff about 24 hours away in Dallas, here are the 10 burning questions for the Wizards this season.

10) Will Gilbert Arenas return to his All-Star form?

The answer is looking like "yes". By all accounts, the knee is back to what it was and the bigger issue is looking like rust and adapting to a new role. I hate to put a lot of stock in the preseason, and a knee injury for a guy whose game revolves around quickness is particularly concerning, but it looks like we still have a superstar on our hands. Maybe the better question now is whether Gil will be able to become a more valuable player and carry this team beyond the first round of the playoffs, which is something he could not do before the injuries. As much I'd like to talk about X-factors and other improvements, this team will only go as far as Agent Zero will take it.

9) Can Gilbert Arenas change his ways and be a leader in more than name?

We may never learn the answer to this question. Stopping his blog and avoiding the media look like steps in the right direction, but what he does behind the scenes will be what matters. I would like to say that Gil should be himself while taking a leadership role, but look at the best leaders around the league: Lebron, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, and D-Wade, all of those guys have achieved a level of maturity that Agent Zero has not. Lebron looks like he was at the same point last year as Gil is this year. Lebron still has a playful side, but clearly made the decision to be the leader of that team, which comes with being the dominant player on a team.

8) Can Flip Saunders get this team to play defense?

This Wizards group will likely always be offense first, but tightening-up the defense could be the difference between another first-round playoff exit, and having some hope of going deep in the playoffs. Arenas, Jamison, and Butler are great offensive talents who have never been great defenders, so Saunders is fighting an uphill battle and surely realizes that this group is best suited to playing a fast-paced system. I realize that if Rip Hamilton became an okay defender in Detroit, then there is hope for everyone, but that was while surrounded by great defenders on a slow-paced team. The Wizards have one guy and one guy only who is a great NBA defender: Brendan Haywood. You want to know the difference between winning 19 games last year and 43 in 07-08? Brendan Haywood. He has quietly been one of the better defensive players in the NBA for awhile, and partly covered for the deficiencies of the big name players on this team. With Deshawn Stevenson losing playing time, Saunders' job will begin with Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the starting SG spot eventually be determined by Mike Miller, Randy Foye, or Young Sushi becoming a good defensive player.

7) Can Caron Butler fit-in with Arenas after being the alpha-dog for 2 years?

Gil is making every effort to be more of a pure PG by passing more often, which should help him integrate back into the team, but who knows what will happen once the regular season starts and the competitive juices get going. Would it shock anyone to see Gil go back to being a shoot-first guy once he feels confident in his knee? Meanwhile, Butler will have to take a slight step back to a co-starring role regardless of what Arenas does. Tough Juice was better when the offense ran through him, so his effectiveness may be diminished. The awesomeness of his nickname, however, remains intact.

6) Are Mike Miller and Randy Foye what the Wizards really need?

(Image courtesy of reclinergm.com)

I posted about this when the trade happened, but clearly these two improve the Wizards. The question is how much do they improve the Wizards, and is that improvement worth the price we paid? The issue for me is that this trade moved the Wizards upside from 2nd round of the playoffs to.....the Eastern Conference finals? With the Big Three signed to big deals, rebuilding would have been difficult to achieve, but if you are going for a championship, swing for the fences, don't settle for hitting a double. Vince Carter was had for a similar/lesser package, and T-Mac would have been available for less. Do either of those guys make me excited? No, but at least the upside of the team with another all-star would have given us some kind of hope to win a championship. I just think this move wasn't enough.

5) Who will be the odd men out in Saunders' rotation?

The starting lineup will likely be Arenas, Miller, Butler, Jamison, and Haywood. After that, it gets very foggy. Saunders is known for using an 8-man rotation, but given the depth of this team, I would not put money on 8 being a magic number. The preseason didn't provide much in the way of clues, as the starters rotated every game. In the front-court, Blatche, McGee, and Oberto appear to be fighting for two spots. In the back-court, Foye, Young Sushi, and Deshawn Stevenson look to be fighting for two spots. Right now it looks like Blatche, Oberto, Foye, and Stevenson will all be in the rotation.

4) Will the Wizards make another big trade?

Let's see, lots of depth, established players likely to be underutilized in a short rotation, young players, one veteran with an expiring contract, obvious holes in the front court and at SG............this sounds like a team in need of a trade. Except, we just made one, so what gives? The big trade brought depth to our deepest position, which begs the question of whether this was the first of more than one trade. The team sorely lacks front-court grit and still lacks the upside to compete with the Celtics, Cavs, and Magic, so should be looking to make a move. If we could somehow package Foye, Miller, and something else into a star SG, then this trade would make a lot more sense. Grunfeld's history shows that he is great at turning around teams, but not great at getting them to make the final step to championship contender. I can assure everyone that I will be mercilessly pounding the refresh key on hoopshype rumors, hoping that a big move is coming.

3) Can the team stay injury-free this season?

(Image courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

That picture is definitely worth 1,000 words, and with Jamison already out for 10 games or more, the answer already appears to be "no". The team is the deepest it has been in recent memory, but the four guys who have to stay healthy are Agent Zero, Tough Juice, Jamison, and Haywood. Everyone else is relatively replaceable, but those four need to stay on the floor, something they have never accomplished for a full season. If Jamison missing 10-15 games is the worst of our injuries, then we will be in for a great season.

2) Will any of the team's young players step-up?

The Wizards have spent the offseason adding veterans to compete immediately, but this has come at the expense of developing our young players. Some of the honus is on the players, but the biggest problem this year will be playing time. Fortunately for Javale McGee and Andray Blatche, almost all of the offseason additions were in the backcourt, so those two are guaranteed at least some playing time in the rotation. McGee, however, does not appear to be a favorite of Saunders, and may only be a bit player this season. Javaris Crittenton and Dominic McGuire are not in the rotation right now either. The one guy who has made a leap forward and claimed some playing time is DCLS friend and favorite, Young Sushi. Coming into the offseason, it looked like he had zero chance to beat-out either Foye or Stevenson to earn almost any PT. Well, Young Sushi became a different player this offseason and in addition to making us look smart and outgrowing his new nickname, has forced Saunders to include him in the rotation. In the meantime, regardless of how much they play, enjoy the personalities of Epic Vale and Young Sushi, who have together taken the mantle of best personality from Agent Zero.

1) What is the ceiling for this team?

I've said it already, but the ceiling for this team currently looks like the 2nd round of the playoffs. I think the Magic will win our division, which leaves us battling for the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. With the Cavs, Celtics, and Magic looking head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, getting the 5th seed or better is crucial if the Wiz are to have a chance of getting out of the 1st round. Chicago, Philly, and Atlanta will compete with us, but I think we can get a top-5 seed. Vegas has our over/under at 41.5 wins, and as the 8th most likely team to win the East, both of which indicate the Wiz are being underrated. I believe we will eclipse those projections with 45 wins earning us the 5th seed in the East, but getting beyond the 2nd round would likely require an injury to Lebron, Dwight Howard, or one of the key Celtics, while we stay healthy. This Wizard team may well be the best we've had in awhile, the problem is that the competition is also the best it's been.

Despite these competitive hurdles, the Wizards are back both literally and figuratively, and not a moment too soon.

The Caps Draft Is In Good Hands With the "Vice President of Atmosphere"

Now that, amigos, is what I call a mullet.

Caps GM George McPhee, a.k.a. the former "VP of Atmosphere" of Blue Moon Mexican Cafe restaurants in New York City, a.k.a. DC's longest tenured GM, a.k.a. the man with the plan, a.k.a. The Undertaker, will be directing his 12th draft as the Caps head bossman tonight, 7 PM, and all day Saturday. While his drafting success has been mixed, he has overseen a streamlining and revamping of the organization's scouting system that is finally reaping dividends.

I could drone on and on about McPhee's GM skills, but it's Friday and I don't want to make Vinny Cerrato cry before the weekend even starts. Instead, I'll regale you with tales of McPhee's manliness that earned him the Undertaker moniker. And maybe a tidbit about his GM skills at the end:

• After a pre-season game in Chicago in 1999 in which the Blackhawks dressed goons and played dirty, McPhee took on the entire coaching staff and roster of the 'Hawks BY HIMSELF. Money quote, after receiving a month-long suspension and $20k fine: "I will never regret standing up for the organization or for what I think is right for the league."
• An undersized McPhee beat the shit out of current Tampa Bay Head Coach and convicted bookie Rich Tocchet with a busted hand. Glen Hanlon - back-up goalie at the time - was, um, fired up about it.
• The Tocchet-McPhee rematch is probably a draw. But the dude proves his fearlessness.
• McPhee takes on noted pugilist Bob Nystrom, who has at least a foot on him.
• Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't direct you towards this four part behind-the-scenes look at McPhee during the '06 entry draft (Backstrom, Varlamov, Neuvirth, Osala, Bouchard, Perrault came out of this one). Fascinating stuff. (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4) The highlight, from Part 3: "I just want to make it look like we're doing stuff. Did I ever tell you you look marvelous?"

Well, I feel comfortable with this guy picking our prospects, don't you?

What to expect: The Caps pick 24th tonight, and WaPo beat writer Tarik El-Bashir thinks McPhee is looking long and hard at speedy RW scoring prospect Landon Ferraro, son of former NHLer Ray. Which would be consistent with his recent taste for drafting NHL lineage (Seabrook, Bourque, Bouchard, Perrault, Gustafsson). You're not getting an NHLer right away with the 24th pick, but Mike Green was snagged 29th, Jeff Schultz 27th, and studly blue-chipper John Carlson was last year's 27th pick. A trade or two to acquire a 2nd-line center to replace Fedorov is possible.

What not to expect: McPhee trading the pick for washed up veterans and handing them massive contracts, and then watching as future NHL stars Victor Hedman or John Tavares fall to the 24th slot anyways. Grunfeld and Cerrato have that shit covered.

Amateur Player Rankings and Scouting Reports
Mock Draft 1
Mock Draft 2
Mock Draft 3

NHL Amateur Draft Round 1. 7 PM, Versus Network.

NBA Draft Review

We could have had Rubio................

I would like to give a big middle finger to Grunfeld for that stupid trade, Agent-0 for having a fat contract that is preventing a rebuild, and Agent-0 again for refusing to shift to SG for the good of the team. I would then like to give a 2nd middle finger to Grunfeld for creating a giant hole at the rugged-PF-rebounder spot, then passing on Dejuan Blair in the 2nd round for "cash considerations". The Spurs ended up grabbing Blair, and which is why they are the best drafting team of the last 15 or so years; this is not always rocket science.

The Wiz could have walked away from this night with Ricky Rubio and Dejuan Blair if we had stayed pat. Thanks to the general league stupidity, we could have had 2 of our 5 future starters and been well on our way to a good rebuilding effort, unbelievable. Hey, at least we didn't draft 4 point guards. My mood was also slightly brightened by my sister's observation that Rubio looked like "the guy from the new 90210"; as you can see in the pictures above, she is absolutely right. This makes me feel slightly better about not drafting Rubio.

The worst draft ever (WDE) lived down to expectations, with a relatively predictable top-15 from Chad Ford's latest reports, no big trades, and no ridiculous suits. Hasheem Thabeet ran away with the worst suit award for that silver number that made him look like a wet hippopotamus, in addition to his $2 million yellow diamond earings.

I thought the night could be saved by the draft's most entertaining prospect, Brandon Jennings, aka Young Money. This only led to me getting even angrier when I discovered that Young Money backed out of attending the draft when he was not guaranteed a lottery spot, which meant I would miss both his suit and interview. I actually yelled for joy when he was picked #10, then angrily cursed-out Fran Fraschila when I realized Young Money wasn't at MSG. Oh, but my man didn't totally dissapoint, making a grand entrance 4 picks later, totally upstaging the current selection thanks to David Stern's intro, and blowing a kiss to the draft audience. Given that Young Money got to MSG within about 10 minutes of being selected, he clearly had the suit on and ready should a lottery team have selected him, and planned on making that grand entrance, what a guy. That said, the suit was lame, which was probably because he wasn't sure he was going to be at the draft, and his interview was also short and underwhelming.

As if all of that wasn't enough, Dejuan "Hot Stuff" Summers slipped into the 2nd round, where he is not guaranteed an NBA contract. What an idiot, he passed on being a 2nd round pick last year, then left GTown after an okay season because of the WDE, thinking that this was his best shot at getting a guaranteed 1st round deal, and then falls to the 2nd round anyway. The worst-case for him after playing another year in college was the 2nd round, and he would have had a chance to boost his stock and play for what should have been a top-10 Hoya team. I hate my life almost as much as Summers hates his right now.

I was also wrong about Jordan Hill's profile reading "Must improve: Offensive game". Although I still think his offense sucks, I now think the profile should read "Must improve: Ability to speak english". His interview with Mark Jones was the highlight of the night, no question.

Maybe things will get better, as there should be some trades in the next few days, possibly including the Wiz dealing for a veteran big man. In the meantime, I am going to pour some boiling water down my throat.

(Photos via imdb.com and njnysports.blogspot.com)

You Can't Screwup the Draft if you Don't Have a Pick, Right?

Despite this being the worst draft ever, this is an exciting night for all NBA fans. In addition to the ritual screwups of half the league, there could be some major trades taking place. Even though the Wiz have made their big move, I have managed to achieve my usual excitment for the draft by somewhat talking myself into the likes of Stephen Curry and Jonny Flynn (not you Jordan Hill), in addition to my usual giddiness for the comedy of these young guys finally hitting the jackpot while being criticized over the PA system. The points of interest:

• Pick #2, where Memphis should draft the 2nd best player in the draft in Ricky Rubio, but have the not-so-minor problem of Rubio not wanting to play in Memphis, which has created a scenario this franchise has already experienced with Steve Francis. They have no shortage of suitors, but the dreamy one has limited his workouts to the point that even potential suitors are weary. This has now created a potential mini-slide for the dreamy one. Right now, either OKC or the Wolves (trading up) look like the dreamy one's most likely landing spots.


• There is little consensus on player rankings outside of the top-3. The general dearth of talent has created a lot of uncertainty in the trade trade market as more teams than usual may hope that someone they like will fall, or more teams than usual may trade-up because they just don't know who anyone else will take. My feeling is that most teams have settled on a larger-than-normal group of players they like, so will stand-pat unless there is a major fall from a player, such as the dreamy one or the overrated one (Jordan Hill).


• The Wiz still hold the #32 pick, which was once projected by Chad Ford to be Patty Mills, but given our depth in the backcourt, is now more likely to be a European guy we can stash or a college big man; my vote is for Danny Green or Nick Calathes. Grunfeld may also make a move for a veteran big man using this pick, so the Wiz war room will have to stay sober.

Relative to apparent draft position, here are my not-so-humble opinions.

Players I like:

• Eric Maynor (If he creeps into the lottery, the sleeper tag does not apply, but as a mid-late 1st rounder I think he could be a good one)
• Ty Lawson (He will play in the NBA, not an all-star, but an NBA starter)
• Brandon Jennings (I thought he was the #1 prospect in his class at the McDonald's game a year ago)
• Dejuan Blair (Paul Millsap 2.0?)
• Patty Mills (great 2nd round pick)
• Danny Green (another 2nd round guy I like because I think he is pretty safe to stick in the NBA)
• Nick Calathes (as a 2nd rounder who could be stashed in Europe for a year)

Players I don't like:

• Jordan Hill (I can hear it now, "Needs to work on: Offensive game.")
• DeMar DeRozan (all potential, not enough substance)
• Jrue Holiday (See above)
• BJ Mullens (See last 2)
• Chase Budinger (A homeless man's Rip Hamilton is generous)
• Sam Young (Old and not enough upside for a 1st rounder)

My opinions match-up pretty well with John Hollinger's draft rater, which has a pretty good track record.

Links:
Mock Drafts

• Draft Express
• Real GM
• NBADraft.net
• ESPN
• CBS Sports

Rumors

• Wizards Insider
• ESPN (need insider)
• Hoops Hype
• Inside Hoops
• Pro Sports Daily
• Hoops World
• Yahoo
• Fox Sports

(Image courtesy of NBAMate.com)

Wizards Trade the #5 Pick for Mediocrity

I know I mentioned this trade as a possibility, but what the fuck?!? For those of you living in a cave, the Wiz traded the #5 overall pick and 3 garbage contracts for Mike Miller and Randy Foye, who both have 1 year remaining on their contract; in other words, the Wizards traded the #5 overall pick for 1 year of Mike Miller and Randy Foye (and some cap room in 2011). Why make a move so far before the draft? With Chad Ford now reporting that the dreamy one, Tyreke Evans, and Thabeet will all be gone by the #5 pick, our leverage was dropping by the minute, so Grunfeld may have been forced to pull the trigger before other teams lost interest.

Ernie might as well have pulled the trigger on the gun pointed at the Wiz fanbase. I can't link this post enough from Bullets Forever, it gives a great statistical analysis of the ideal backcourt mate for Agent-0 and finds Mike Miller as a great fit, as he is an almost ideal offensive compliment. Even so, a team whose 3 stars are all bad to horrible defenders decides to fill-in the role players around that core with more guys who can't play defense? Haven't we seen this movie before from the Phoenix Suns, except with a much better group of talent? Yes, the Wizards are a better team than they were yesterday, but not better enough to contend for anything more than the Eastern Conference finals if we catch a few breaks.

First and foremost, I think the Wizards should tear down and rebuild. Even though we have a lot of money tied-up in our 'big-3', I still like the idea of stockpiling young talent, either with the #5 pick, or trading for a young player already in the league who could develop. That said, given that Gil isn't going anywhere for awhile, we are almost forced to find someone who pairs well with him and try to make a run with our current group for 2 more years (until Jamison becomes Jamison's expiring contract).

The big problem is that we are far away from competing with the Cavs, Magic, and Celtics. Even if Arenas is back to his old self and everyone can stay healthy, we are still not as good as the top-3 in the East, let alone the the best in the West. In order to have any chance to compete, we needed to do something drastic; if we are not rebuilding, then swing for the fences with this trade. Mike Miller is a fine player, but does he really put us over the top? Foye is a nice backup to have, and gives us a backcourt with insane depth, but this team is still short on defense and too dependent on Agent-0 returning to form. That is why, I believe, a better course of action would have been to trade for, drum roll please.........T-Mac! That's right, he hogs the ball, his team improved after he was injured last year, and he looks like he is high all the time (nothing new to the Wiz after Rod Strickland), but he has everything to play for this year and gives us a legitimate all-star who can pickup Agent-0's slack. Maybe the team falls flat on its face with T-Mac, or even Jesus Shuttlesworth, but at least we have a higher ceiling than with Mike Miller and Randy Foye.

The Wiz are not done trading, as we have too many guards and too few big-men, so there will be another trade, possibly during the draft, and likely for a veteran big-man. Maybe Grunfeld will pull a rabbit out of his ass with some decent young guards and Mike James' contract as trade chips, but the upside on this team is just not high enough. For one mediocre season, we traded a potentially valuable young player who could be with this team for years.

How is that supposed to make me happy?

(Image via cbcsports.ca)

The Wizards Want All Your Finest Meats and Cheeses

With the NBA draft fast approaching and the rumors flying, I thought I'd post a quick update on the avalanche of rumors concerning the Wizards' pick. My general draft preview will be up Thursday morning, but thought this would tide you over.

As you may have heard, the #5 pick is getting more action than Shawn Kemp in a whorehouse. This leaves the Wiz in a great spot, as the uncertainty in the top-4 is creating more value for #5 pick. Although I endorsed trading Jamison and rebuilding, it appears that Jamison is off the block, so any trade will consist primarily of the #5 pick and some collection of Mike James', the poet's, and Darius Songaila's contracts. The latest rumors (from Chad Ford of ESPN unless otherwise noted):

• Knicks have offered Wilson Chandler and probably their #8 pick. I like that we would get a young player here, but there would have to be more money offered on the Knicks side for us to include our bad contracts. The Knicks have plenty of bad contracts, and offered Larry Hughes, but that possibility is unlikely given that Wiz are trying to shed salary beyond next year. That said, I wouldn't rule him out given that he has succesfully shared a backcourt with Arenas in the past. If Chandler and Hughes both come aboard, I think this would set a record for most tattoos received in 1 deal.
  

• There have been talks with the Suns about Amare Stoudamire. That pu-pu platter the Wiz are tossing into every other deal would not be enough to land Amare. Jamison could come into play here, and a 3-way deal may be the best way to get this done. I have no problem not getting a 1st-round pick back in this deal.


• Blazers have made Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, Jerryd Bayless, and Nicolas Batum available. Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez are also likely to be on the block. Bayless is the best talent, but he's just another scoring SG, which is not what we want. Blake is a nice backup PG and local boy, and Outlaw and Batum are talented players, but not what we need and definitely not what Grunfeld will want for next year.


• Wolves have offered Mike Miller. Bullets Forever has a great piece on the ideal guy for the Wizards to acquire, and sure enough, Mike Miller is very high on the list. The ideal guy for this team is a SG who can play defense and shoot 3's, similar to Trevor Ariza, Michael Pietrus, or Bruce Bowen circa 2002. Miller can definitely shoot, but his defense is not what we need.


• Rockets have offered T-Mac and Carl Landry. I actually am intrigued by this one. Landry is a good young role-player, and T-Mac will have a chip on his shoulder next year. The big problem is that T-Mac's contract is about $20 million, so Songaila, the poet, and Mike James is not enough in contract terms, and a young player would likely have to move to Houston. Other issues are that Landry will want a sizeable deal when his rookie contract is over, and the fact that T-Mac and Agent-0 could have serious sharing problems.


• Nets have offered Vince Carter. You can hear a pin drop whenever Rod Thorn throws that one out over the phone; how generous of them.


• Bucks have offered Richard Jefferson. He plays the same position as Caron, so this is not happening.


• Mavs are still interested. Jason Terry is not a good fit, so maybe a 3-way trade would be in play here.
  

None of these offers is a homerun for us, which is why I think a 3-way deal is very likely. A 3-way!

Maybe the 5th pick can get even more action.

(Image courtesy of ChrisCreamer.com)

The Un-Magical Reality of the Wizards' Situation

These are heady days for the Wizards. It's hard to envision a team not named the Cavaliers, Magic, Celtics or even Heat winning the Eastern Conference in the next 10 years. And bless their high-scoring little hearts, the Wiz-kids wouldn't know defense if it was gifted to them in a gold-encrusted diamond chain. Worse, the basketball gods robbed them yet again at the draft lottery during a year in which I'd qualify as a first-rounder. And I'm so white I get sunburns through T-shirts. It's true.

But the Wiz have made their bed with Agent Zero and his max contract, so the only strategy available to GM Ernie Grunfeld is to build around Arenas. Abe Pollin wants to win now and ain't gettin' any healthier, and every year of a "youth movement" is a wasted one at this point. None of the guys available at #5 will contribute to a championship team any time soon, so Grunfeld is looking to package the pick and get an All-Star caliber vet in return. But can it be done? Here are the scenarios that could play out as we see it:

1) Keep the pick. Jonny Flynn, James Harden, Jordan Hill, Stephen Curry are some of the names floating around for the Wiz, and we endorsed Flynn before the trade rumors started. This fifth pick business is making me upset so let's just move on.

2) Trade up for Ricky Rubio. The only non-Blake Griffin in the draft who looks like a potential all-star might be available as Memphis is actively shopping their #2 pick. The dude is nice, and most importantly pretty. I think a package of the #5 pick, Etan Thomas' expiring contract and maybe Javaris Crittendon/Nick Young could get this deal done, and a deal has been discussed with OKC in case he falls to #3. Rubio can play right away and provides a core building piece if the Wiz blow up the Arenas roster. The immediate problem is that Rubio's agent doesn't want him playing with Agent-Zero; reason #347 why Arenas' contract is killing us. There is also a sliiiight chance he falls into our laps at #5. I can only dream of Rubio's dreaminess....

3) Trade the pick for a veteran. The "go for it now" option that Grunfeld is strongly pursuing. The 5th pick alone won't get much, so thrown in The Poet's expiring deal and Jamison and you've got something. Gil is immovable (insert ruined knee joke here), and Tough Juice is untouchable. The ideal fit is a rugged SG who can shoot 3's, (Trevor Ariza?), but moving Jamison leaves the PF position open in addition to both guard positions.

Some of the rumors: Ginobli (like the Spurs are really going to get taken by the Wiz), Amare Stoudamire, Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Ray Allen. Other possibilities: Tony Parker, Elton Brand (no thanks), David Lee, Josh Smith, and Chris Bosh. Added bonus: moving down in the draft and taking my sleeper, PG Eric Maynor of VCU. Ty Lawson would be nice here too.

4) Trade the pick and/or Jamison for expiring contracts, add a free agent next year. The only player/contract that could be dealt to save money is Jamison, but he has value and we could keep the #5 pick this way. If Grunfeld went for Cuttino Mobley (heart condition), Tracy McGrady (a China doll), or Ben Wallace (a corpse), they'd have room in 2010 to go after LeBron. Kidding. But what about a guy like Joe Johnson? If we're willing to throw the pick in a deal, we can probably get someone who can contribute in '09 (Ray Allen or Bosh for example).

***

As fans of the Wizards, (the Hawks are better? really?) we've learned to accept mere playoff appearances as excitement. And short of Tanya Harding-ing LeBron, Garnett, Wade and Howard in a coordinated multi-point strike, that might be the most we can expect.

But we can hope for more. In the opinion of DC Landing Strip, unless we can get a legitimate all-star (sit down Jason Terry) such as Amare Stoudamire or Manu Ginobli or even Rubio, then it's time to shed salary in '09 and wait for a prime free agent in 2010 to help Arenas, Butler and Haywood. The operative word here is wait; it doesn't look like the Wizards want to do that and I can't blame them. If they want immediate help though, I'm available on a ten-day any time, and I once beat my JCC camp counselor in 1 on 1 knockout.

[Image via The Box]

Wizards Draft Preview Part II: Evaluating the Prospects

In Part I of our Wizards draft preview we arrived at three conclusions:

1) The NBA Draft Lottery is an unnecessary, superficial, awkward event;

2) Gilbert Arenas is not what one would call a "classic" point guard;

3) Ernie Grunfeld better damn well draft one of them "classic" point guards.

In Part II we will evaluate potential Wizards draft picks, assuming three things:

1) The pick isn't traded;

2) Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio, and Hasheem Thabeet are unavailable by the 5th pick;

3) The Wizards will draft a Point Guard, Shooting Guard, or Power Forward.

Assumption 2 is based on most Big Boards and Mock Drafts, while assumption 3 is based on a combination of logic, a DCLS poll, and team needs. While we at DCLS believe a drafting a point guard would be in the team's best interests, Ernie may not. So we will account for that accordingly in our evaluation.

Below is a list of potential Wizards' picks along with their measurements and notable '08-'09 statistics. Each player's "Rank" is an average of five Big Boards, picked arbitrarily by yours truly: ESPN, nbadraft.net, Draft Express, CBS Sports, and RealGM. Players are ranked highest to lowest:

There are two ways a GM can approach a draft pick: take the best player available, or take the best player available in consideration of team needs.

According to the above rankings, only Harden and Hill would be "steals" at the fifth pick. With their college accomplishments, athleticism, and outstanding upside, I wouldn't grimace at the idea of either player joining the Wizards. Hill would immediately become former Wildcat Gilbert Arenas' best friend, and could provide valuable energy off the bench until Antawn Jamison transforms into "Antawn Jamison's Expiring Contract". Harden, while lacking ideal size for a two guard, is a great leader and has the ability to share ball-handling responsibilities with a fellow guard. Defensively, he is decent, although he has limited lock-down ability.

Were Ernie to venture down the path of "team needs" when making a final decision, there are several point guards he may consider. I'm going to eliminate Brandon Jennings from discussion because I lack the knowledge to evaluate him, and I (perhaps falsely) believe someone who forgoes a full-ride at Big-Time U to get limited playing time in Europe has character issues. My preference in regards to the point guards above?

1. Flynn
2. Evans
3. Maynor
4. Curry
5. Lawson

Evans has ideal size and can play either guard position. Maynor hasn't consistently faced the same level of competition as the others, but he is a "money player". Curry's 3-point ability is desirable, but he is new to the point guard position. I honestly have no problem with Lawson, but there's a good chance he will around when Washington is called at pick 32.

As for the guy I ranked first: for anyone who watched the Big East tournament, specifically that UConn-Syracuse marathon, I implore you to go back in time and not fall in love with Jonny Flynn. It's impossible. It can't be done. And I know it's usually silly to evaluate a player based on his performance in one game. But when you are desperately seeking a way to improve your team, aside from talent you look for winners and you look for heart. And if there is anything that embodies those two characteristics more than someone's performance in a 6-overtime elimination game against the #1 ranked team in the country, please let me know.

He's small, and he reminds me of Chris Paul, both in size and playing style. Those who say he's too small for the NBA need look no farther than guys like Paul, Aaron Brooks, and Nate Robinson. Remember, it's not the size of the dog in the fight...it's the size of the fight in the dog.

In Chad Ford's profile of Flynn, the point guard had this to say about the prospect of playing in New York. Conveniently replacing New York with Washington, you get this:

"You have to have heart to succeed in [Washington]. I've got a big one."

We could use that on the Wizards, don't you think?

[Title Image via Syracuse.com]

Wizards Draft Preview Part I: Draft a PG

Over a week has passed since the catastrophe known as the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery. You know, the NBA pre-draft event known for awkward dialogue between team representatives and broadcasters that is given way too much television coverage and even has an hour-long pregame show (!) that probably attracts more viewers than an actual NBA playoff game where powerful overpaid NBA executives get together to pick out three ping pong balls with four-digit combinations corresponding to one of 14 teams participating all with raging semi-boners for guys like Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio? Yeah, that lottery.

Or, as you may more vividly remember it, the night where "Wizards Tank Job 2008-2009" was effectively made moot with the worst-case scenario 5th overall selection. Excuse me while I remove the tacks from my eyeballs.

Nevertheless, we must move on. And truth be told, the 5th pick ain't so bad. But before we dissect all the potential picks, we must identify the Wizards most pressing needs. This team has plenty of holes with and without all parts healthy. The big three of Arenas, Butler, and Jamison are all locks to start next year assuming they are healthy and wearing the Blue, Black, Gold, and White! (Seriously? Bring back the Bullets, or shoot me now.)

I'm no fan of Michael Wilbon, but he brought up a good point in his article following the lottery last week:

"Okay, I get it. Arenas, which I've been saying for some time now, shouldn't be the starting point guard. It's one thing for me to say it; it's another thing for Magic Johnson to say it. If Magic says the Wizards should have a pure, set-up-his-teammates point guard to run the offense, I'm listening. "

For the first time in my life I couldn't agree more with Michael Wilbon (and Magic Johnson, I guess). Gilbert Arenas is a combo guard. Yes, he is great with the ball in his hands, and he will undoubtedly "Hibachi!" in crunch time. But drafting a classic pass-first point guard and playing Arenas off the ball can be effective for two reasons:

1. The most obvious reason, a pass-first point guard will create open shots for his teammates. Arenas, Jamison, Butler, Young, and Songaila (ugh) can all hit open jumpers consistently.

2. Arenas will be fresh at the defensive end, at the end of games, and at the end of the season. Not to say that he won't run off the ball; but without the responsibility of running the offense, Arenas can conserve some energy and concentration on an area that he has excelled at over the years (fitness) and an area of concern throughout his career (defense).

Defense and 3-point shooting must not be overlooked as vital team qualities. Cleveland finished 1st in scoring defense during the regular season and 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage. Orlando finished 6th in scoring defense and 7th in 3-point shooting. The fact that both are in the conference finals is no coincidence. This season's Wizards? 24th and 29th, respectively.

While they have needs elsewhere, specifically up front, drafting a point guard should help the team defensively and lead to a significant improvement in 3-point shooting. It will also stabilize the future of the backcourt and should immediately return the team to the playoffs, which according to my sources is the only way to avoid the emotional brutality of the NBA Draft Lottery. So, yea, I guess I could fox with that.

But Ernie will probably fox it up.