Redskin 2010 Season Truths

Believe it or not, the NFL season is less than 3 days away. With the help of Football Outsiders Almanac 2010, it is high time to tell you exactly what is going to happen our Skin this season.

My initial thought was that suck, won 4 games last year, and haven't improved much. Our defense has been our strength for several seasons, and as excited as I am about a new defensive coordinator, our personnel are better suited for a 4-3, and think the D might be slightly worse this year. Sure, we got McNabb, but he is only marginally better than Campbell, and we haven't upgraded anywhere else on offense. I think Kyle Shanahan helps too, but only see a modest upgrade here. Balancing the D and O together, I see a team that might be slightly improved, but not much different from last year. If we won 4 games last year, 2 more wins seems about right, when accounting for the upgrade on Jim Zorn.

That was until I read FO's tasty tidbit:

"The Redskins should reach the playoffs this year: They are better than they were last season, and they weren’t as bad last season as their record suggests. They fell well below their Estimated Win total of 7.3 in 2009, underperforming because of Zorn’s dreadful coaching and some special teams lapses. Zorn’s ineffectuality as a leader and strategist was evident in early season losses to the woeful Lions (the Redskins were 2-of-10 on third downs, committed 97 yards in penalties, and allowed three straight drives for a combined 41 Lions offensive plays) and Chiefs (eight three-andout drives against an opponent that couldn’t score a touchdown). If Shaun Suisham could kick straight, the Redskins would have beaten the Cowboys in Week 11, and a special-teams fumble provided the margin of victory for the Saints in Week 13. The switch from Zorn-Campbell to Shanahan-McNabb will get the Redskins to snap back to that seven-win level and then buy them an extra win or two. A schedule full of Rams, Buccaneers, and Lions gives them another boost...The Redskins will have an offense close to league average and a solid 3-4 defense that has the right personnel for the system...Barring a Week 1 McNabb injury, the Redskins are a safe bet to compete for a wild card, if not win their division.

Holy crap! That's right, with a semi-competent coach and normal luck, we would have won 7 games last year. FO agrees with me that this team will be about 2 games better, but is using a much higher baseline. Running through the schedule though, I still having trouble finding 9 wins. Let's say we beat the Rams, Bucs, Lions, Bears, and Jags, and go 2-4 in the division given that Dallas is a superior team, and the Giants and Eagles are no pushovers. Then let's assume we lose to the Colts, Packers, and Vikings (although Viking injuries might push them into the W column). That gives us a 7-7 record with games against the Texans and Titans not counted. Maybe the Skins beat the Texans at FedEx and lose at Tennessee to go 8-8. We still need to find 1 more win, and that is if we don't slip up against any of the supposedly inferior teams. Maybe we go 3-3 in the division, or can sneak out a game in Tennessee or against the Vikings, but 9 wins is a stretch for me. That said, in the metrics and I trust, and with McNabb ready for week 1, this team can legitimately talk about playoffs.

Contenders for the NFC East crown - just when I thought I was out, they pull me right back in! Don't look now, but it's Dallas week!

(Image courtesy of harryhogfootball.com)

Redskins on Hard Knocks - D******* Hall is No Cromartie

I watch Hard Knocks anyway, but with the Jets playing the Skins on this week's episode, I was downright giddy. For those who haven't been watching, you should be. Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromartie have been can't miss, most notably this now infamous Cromartie scene describing all of his children. If you've seen it, watch again:

Antonio Cromartie And His Kids - watch more funny videos

There wasn't much Redskin talk before the game in the Jets camp except that they seem to think they are the most talented team in the league and all that ra ra stuff. Nick Mangold did get on Fat Albert after one of the first plays of the game:
Mangold: "You're looking spry out there with all that conditioning."
Fat Albert: They're trying to kill me right now."

Okay, maybe we shouldn't be on Hard Knocks next year..... However, there was a gem dropped by Rex Ryan on D******* Hall. At the end of LaDainian Tomlinson's huge 1st quarter run (which I replayed several times and believe the biggest culprit to be Laron Landry), D******* Hall finishes an Andre Carter tackle at the 50 yard line. That much was already seared in my brain, but what I didn't notice on Friday was when getting up, Hall gets a little feisty and starts going after Jet WR Jerrico Cotchery, right near Rex Ryan. The Jets massive coach then drops this:

"Hey, tackle him at the line of scrimmage, you can't tackle him 50 yards down the field. Hey, you ain't here to tackle nobody, what are you talking about? That's why my brother got rid of your ass."

Splendid! Ryan is referring to his brother Rob Ryan, the former D-Coordinator in Oakland. Hall did get a little redemption by picking off a Dirty Sanchez pass later, but he will never get redemption for being cut 8 games into his $70 million contract by the Raiders!........oh wait, we gave him 6 years and $55 million? Crap.

Quotes courtesy of my DVR box

The New John Wall Dance

I've seen this video of John Wall spontaneously dancing at the NBA rookie photo shoot on a couple other other blogs, but not with the importance of the episode truly appreciated:

I've watched the video several times in the most creepy way possible, and I think John Wall might just have a new dance. That thing he does with the hand behind the head, a la Deion Sanders, with the other hand waving in front of his face, a la Deshawn Stevenson, just might be the new John Wall Dance.

He already has his own shoe, shot, and dance, but just when it seemed John Wall had it all, he done did it again with those fresh moves. My friend's girlfriend also said he's a good dancer, so he's that going for himself too.....

John Wall: Uniting DC Sports

For those of you who missed the 42-17 demolition of the hapless Bills in the Skins season opener, there was 1 beautiful moment in the game, that just got me excited for the season...........................the Wizards season (Sports Bog beat me to this).

After Fred Davis caught a a 2nd quarter TD pass from Sexy Rexy, he proceeded to do his usual endzone dance:

I said to all my friends watching, "How awesome would it be if he'd done the John Wall dance instead?" My friends all laughed hysterically at my tremendous question, but little did we know that this was not such a crazy idea. For when rookie WR Brandon Banks took a punt 77 yards to a land that will be entered frequently (the Bills' endzone), he may have won the job as our punt returner, in addition to my heart:

John Wall was in the house for this, and as the Sports Bog points out, and John Wall tweeted, Banks and Wall are boys from growing up in Raleigh.

The other best part of the game was Doc Walker referring to Rex Grossman as "Sexy Rexy" on more than 1 occasion. I can't find video, but trust me, it happened, and if his producers have a stick up their ass, we may not get to witness that glory again.

Let's just hope these aren't the best Skins highlights of the year.

Wale - The Black & Gold, Complete With D.C. Shoutouts Aplenty

Can you spot 'em? I'm going on record saying this song is dope.

What Fat Albert Felt Like Today

The most hated athlete in DC (stop smiling Agent Zero) has failed at everything this offseason (other than picking up a fat $21 million bonus check). First, he tried to get traded and failed, then lost the respect of his teammates, and now, in his first day in training camp, failed his conditioning test. The details are murky, but it sounds like Shanahan was out to get him a little bit. According to Jason Reid, not-as-Fat Albert showed off his offseason weight loss and "killed it" in the first portion, but then look a bathroom break and then Shanahan made him do 1 more sprint, and Fat Albert failed. By bathroom break, I am pretty sure that means Fat Albert ran straight to the throne and puked.

Most reports say he had to run 3-300 yard sprints, but Reid's report refers to 3 'phases' and states that Fat Albert left for the bathroom midway through the 2nd phase, which makes the test sound like more than just 3 identical sprints. Does this mean Fat Albert ran 1 good '300', then was doing well on the 2nd but had to stop and puke, so Shanahan made him run a 3rd? If so, Shanahan sounds like a generous man offering him the opportunity for a 3rd sprint. The other reports seem to indicate that Fat Albert ran 2 great '300s', then immediately puked, and Shanahan somehow made up a ridiculous reason after the fact to make Fat Albert run a 3rd that was not part of the original test. So many questions! Only a few guys on the field know what really went down, but I did dig find this exclusive footage of Fat Albert's experience:

The bright side, in addition to the existence of that video, is that Fat Albert is in better shape than last year, and will soon pass the test and be back practicing as usual. Who knows when he will get back into the starting defense, but baby steps everyone......

D.J. King Will Break His Hand While Breaking Your Face

The newest Capital, D.J. King, is no small cookie. At 6'2" and 221 pounds he's around Alex Ovechkin's size, but instead of scoring highlight-reel goals and pissing off jealous Pittsburgh scrubs and getting with stone cold foxes on boats in Europe, he lets his fists do the talking. Gotta applaud him for that.

He even broke his hand beating the snot out of Krys Barch last season. Dedication to your craft. Toughness in the heat of battle. Bad-freaking-ass.



While I'll miss the somewhat unrealistic hope for a guy like Stefan Della Rovere to become a leader and pest on the Capitals in the near future, he was never gonna be the guy to lay down the law at the NHL level this year when need be. King can be that guy.

I was skeptical at first, but what the hell - he's already off to a good start in my book.

When told what Pittsburgh's Max Talbot had to say about Alex Ovechkin yesterday, King shot back, "Wow. I guess that's not going to be happening too much longer, I guess."

Having your teammate's - and captain's - back AND pissing off fans of a hated rival within hours of joining the team? Sign me up.

DCLS is Always Right - Especially about Strasburg

About a month ago I posted on Stephen Strasburg's current trade value after 4 games in the big leagues. For sake of simplicity, I decided to not factor in team need or player contract, but Fangraphs has used their fancy stats and gone ahead and created a great trade value column taking into account player contract. So what changed from my very-arbitrary list? Not much.

The top-4, in order, are Evan Longoria, Jason Heyward, Strasburg, Hanley Ramirez. Well, whaddya know? Exactly the same as I had them. This is actually not surprising when you consider the fact that younger players are more valuable than older players (aside from Pujols, no one was over 26 on my list of players to consider), and also that young players generally have better contracts than older players in baseball. Therefore, adding contract in the the equation should not change my list very much.

The better question may be how has Strasburg's performance over the past month changed his ranking on my list. As Fangraphs states,

"This may be as high as any pitcher will ever rank on this list. Strasburg has been nothing short of sensational so far in the big leagues, posting a ridiculous 2.11 xFIP in his first eight starts. His stuff is better than anyone in baseball, and it’s hard to see hitters figuring him out as long as he keeps throwing this hard. Oh, and the Nationals control his rights through 2016. He won’t make any serious money for another three years, so for now, the Nationals get one of the game’s best pitchers at about 5 percent of his market value. But, as with any pitcher, the risks are significant. The superlatives could all disappear with one pitch, as it has for so many phenoms before him. Pitcher attrition would keep other teams from giving up the kitchen sink to get Strasburg, but as good as he is, the refrigerator is probably on the table."

I think it is safe to say at this point that only thing holding back Strasburg from being the #1 guy are the injury concerns that go with being a pitcher . There is no issue with him facing good lineups or the league facing him a 2nd time, he might already be the best pitcher in baseball, and isn't about to dropoff anytime soon. Revisiting my list, with or without contracts, I can only come up with the same list as that from Fangraphs, so have only moved Strasburg up one spot past Hanley Ramirez; I still have to rank Longoria and Heyward ahead of Pitching Jesus.

(Image courtesy of examiner.com)

John Wall: Will You Marry Me?

I'll try not to get too carried away, but John Wall is off and running after carrying the Wizards to a 4-0 record in summer league (he sat for the 5th game that we lost) and being named the Most Outstanding Player in the Vegas Summer League Tournament. Wall got it done statistically, with his 23.5 ppg and 7.8 apg leading the league, in the W column with a perfect record, and most importantly in the leadership and maturity category. While a lot of you might be excited that he won an ESPY for best male collegiate athlete (despite not even being the best in his own sport......sorry, Evan Turner was better), you may not know that Wall skipped the ESPYs to practice. In Wall's words,

"Basically I don't want to miss practice or anything like that, feel like I'm bigger than anybody," Wall said Wednesday afternoon. "The ESPYs were a great chance, I would love to be there, but there's more time down the future to get there. Right now I'm a rookie, so I need to be with my teammates, trying to get better every chance that I can. If I would have left, then they maybe would have looked where I was or I asked where I was. It wouldn't have been the right place and the right situation. So I told the ESPN people thanks for the nominations, and thank God, but I had this and this is more important. This is my job. That comes secondary to what I'm trying to do."

Wall clearly knows his role as a leader and his #1 priority is becoming the most valuable player he can be. I am not sure man-crush goes far enough to describe how I feel about this. Marry my sister? Marry me? I mean seriously, it's summer league practice! What 19-year old passes up parties, beautiful women, and fun for a morning summer league practice?!? The last face of Reebok clearly would have made the ESPYs.

Seriously! Not a game, we talkin' about practice. Maybe you can blame the scheduling, but Wall's maturity was echoed throughout the games; he just isn't wired the same way as other guys. As Bullets Forever noticed, in the 2nd game of the summer league, Wall scolded Javale McGee after a nice fadeaway jump hook because the Veil of Cashmere didn't throw down a dunk on Wall's initial lob, and later gave Young Sushi no love for hitting dumb 3-pointer. You would think that 3 years in the league would give McGee and Young Sushi a huge maturity edge over the 19-year old, but Wall is the one who 'gets it'. He is already the best player in the Vegas Summer League, but knows he has a lot to learn, recognizing that he expects more from himself. Not only does he continue to emphasize a need to improve and learn in every interview, but he is showing a high basketball IQ, and strong leadership qualities.

I know, he had a lot of turnovers, a 4-19 game, and Marco Bellinelli torched summer league, but Wall is going to be great. I never had concerns about his upside, but seeing and hearing how he is wired is something special. Kobe and MJ have a competitive drive and view towards basketball that is different from other players and that is why they are both so great. I am not sure that Wall has the competitive at all costs mentality of those two, but he clearly is wired in a way that makes him more likely to reach his potential than almost any other player in the NBA. I knew we had something special on our hands when we won the lottery, but didn't realize how special.

(Image courtesy of 3.bp.blogspot.com)

Charles Barkley Joins Redskins Nation

Legitimate fanship or just Charles being Charles? Who cares; anything to piss off Eagles fans.



(H/T Hogs Haven)