The Thinking Man's Take on the McNabb Contract

A loss like that almost makes you forget that the Skins made a franchise-altering decision by giving Donovan McNabb an extension. But really, this contract holds much greater importance for the franchise than Michael Vick looking like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl.

Unfortunately for us long suffering fans, this decision is an absolutely awful one, and a reflection that past mistakes are continuing. The idiocy behind this decision goes way deeper than money.

First, I want go back to this summer, when the Skins decided to drop Jason Campbell and trade for McNabb. The Skins stubborn refusal to rebuild seemed poised to change with a new GM and Coach, but as we all know, there is something in the water around Ashburn...and by something in the water I mean Dan Snyder's kool-aid.

The Skins were 4-12, low on draft picks and in obvious of an absolute teardown. Instead? The team decided to trade a 2nd and what I believe will be a 4th round pick for a 33 year-old quarterback who ranked as very mediocre last year. By Football Outsiders metrics, in 2009, McNabb ranked 20th on a per play basis and 16th in total production. By the less telling quarterback rating, McNabb ranked 12th last year. You can sell the leadership angle all you want, but 33 years old and mediocre with declining production is not a good idea. There is no rejuvenation machine.

Meanwhile, the Skins already had a mediocre guy in JC. A 28 year old who in 2009 was 25th on a per play basis, 20th in total production, and 15th in QB rating. Campbell's 2009 numbers are worse than McNabb's, but he was playing with one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. If you want to bring up McNabb's leadership, then you have to be open to the counter that Campbell might have more growth left in him than the average 28 year old QB, as someone whose literally had to learn a different offense for every of his football life since his freshman year at Auburn. I could go into some guestimating that Campbell and McNabb's respective performances last year were not very different, while Campbell was/is cheaper and younger.

Fortunately, Football Outsiders decided to tackle this very subject the day before the McNabb deal was signed. For those of you without Insider, FO uses 'similarity scores' to find comparable players, and Campbell's 2007-2009 stretch shows a lot of players, "on the verge of something great, or at least prepared for multiyear stretches with high levels of performance." Meanwhile, McNabb's 2007-2009 compares to a bunch of guys who, "were about to see serious downturns in starting time and overall production." These are not 100% predictive measures, but strong indicators. As FO states, "Is McNabb headed for a similar downturn? Prorated to a 16-game schedule, his 2010 stats certainly indicate it." Yeah, we noticed. But wait, there's more,

"The Redskins may have wished for the McNabb who came of age a decade ago, but again, it could be argued that they already had that player and let him go. When running similarity scores for McNabb's three-year period from 2002 through 2004 -- you know, the one that included three conference championships and ended in a Super Bowl -- the comparisons are even more interesting. Behind the Steve McNair of 2001, the second-closest comparison sticks out like a sore thumb: Jason Campbell, 2009."  

Wow. It would have been nice to bring this to our attention 8 months ago. You get the impression though that FO's article could have been planted on Snyder's desk this Spring and it wouldn't have made a smidgen of difference.

This is a prime example of the biggest problem with the Redskins in the Snyder era, and that is a refusal to rebuild with youth. It doesn't get more clear cut than the veteran McNabb blocking a younger Campbell. So Campbell may have been slightly worse, but to give up 2 high draft picks and take a 33 year old over a 28 year old is outrageous for a 4-12 team.

That is why this contract's atrocity goes beyond the money. Furthermore, the one thing the the Redskins have done well over the years is manage the salary cap. This team has never really been inhibited in the ability to sign someone to a contract, and continually throws money around. The problem with this team has never been the execution in signing these guys, but rather the plan in going after veterans at the expense of youth and rebuilding. The money the Skins gave McNabb is indeed outrageously high for a player of his caliber, but it doesn't matter.

What does matter is that we are committing to McNabb. I know the Skins have an out after this season, but you are kidding yourself if you think McNabb isn't going to be the starting Redskin QB for at least next season. As FO concludes,

"This situation may not affect the Redskins in the long term; McNabb is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2010 season is done, and he may take his talents elsewhere in the offseason. But if the Redskins actually do succeed in signing McNabb to a long-term deal, past and present trends indicate that it could be a dangerous risk ... and that Campbell may have been the smarter choice all along."

Even worse than being saddled with a bad QB when we had a better and cheaper option in-house, is what this deal shows about the franchise direction: the Redskins are again refusing to admit a mistake and rebuild. We never should have expected otherwise, as Jamie Mottram of MisterIrrelevant.com and Jack Kogod pointed out, 'The McNabb contract was the inevitable conclusion of the McNabb trade.' Admitting a mistake is difficult, especially in an organization with a high turnover rate, but the trade is a sunk cost and this floundering team should cut its losses.

Not only is the rebuild delayed (I know, any chance of a rebuild under Snyder, ever, is optimistic), but as long as McNabb is the QB of this team, we will not be good; the Monday night loss underscored the state of the franchise. What this contract really means is that the next few years will continue to be excruciating if we are not already numb.

(Campbell and McNabb image couresty of inewscatcher.com and McNabb image courtesy of bleacherreport.com)

Hoyas Clear a Hurdle - Wait Who?

College basketball anyone?

In the shadows of this McNabb character and the doomed Redskin season, the Georgetown Hoyas have gotten off to an important start. 2-0 is nothing to scream about, especially when one of the wins is over Tulane, but the Hoyas went on the road in game #1 and beat a frisky Old Dominion team.

ODU's nickname is the Monarchs, the same as a former WNBA team, so maybe can creep up on people thanks to that (and yes, I was unaware the Monarchs franchise no longer exists until I found that link, cross my heart). But they have been a solid squad for a few years, and were an 11-seed in last year's NCAAs. These same manly Monarchs have been a thorn in the Hoyas side, beating them in 2 of their last 3 meetings, including last year to snap an 8-game Hoyas win streak to start the season, and 2 games after Gtown beat almost-champion Butler.

The manly Monarchs may be down a little this year, but going there on the road and winning is no joke. Sure, an early loss isn't a huge deal, but the Hoyas have a tough out-of-conference schedule this year, where we travel to #14 Missouri, #20 Temple, and #19 Memphis all by December 23rd. There is no Duke on the schedule, but that is a gauntlet. Opening with a loss to ODU could have set a really bad tone and put this team in an irreversible spin.

Given that I completely skipped a preview, here is all you need to know. The Hoyas return everyone except Greg Monroe. Yes, he was the team's best player and a lottery pick, but Austin Freeman, Chris Wright, and Jason Clark are back, and the team might be ever so slightly deeper thanks to some maturing players and the addition of freshman Nate Lubick. Local product Markel Starks and Moses Ayegba (who as a raw semi-unknown African big man sounds like he's the guy from the Air Up There) combine to form the rest of the recruiting class, but neither will see major minutes this year. Preseason awards are beyond stupid, but Freeman is the Big East Preseason Player of the year, and Wright is preseason 2nd team All-Big East. More importantly, the Hoyas are picked to finish 4th in the conference behind #5 Pitt, #6 Villanova, and #10 Syracuse.

So what do I predict for the Hoyas this year? The team is still thin, with no scoring coming from outside the Wright, Freeman, Clark trio, so an injury to any of them would be devastating. I think the #20 ranking sounds about right, which would be a #5 seed in the NCAAs. Just quickly looking at the rankings, I see a few teams ahead of the Hoyas who I don't think are as good as the AP, ESPN, and US Today say they are, but I also am not totally buying Gtown's stock yet. I think they'll be 20-8 overall going into the Big East tournament, which is almost identical to last year's 20-9 record, and get a 5th seed in the tourney. Ho hum.

The bigger picture is that Wright, Freeman, and Julian Vaughn are all seniors, so next year's team looks awful, with Clark the only surefire good player. Unless Lubick makes a sudden dramatic improvement, this program will take a major step backward, as the recruiting class is not highly ranked while St. John's, 'Cuse, Louisville, and Rutgers (?) all have top-20 classes right now.

JT3's work the past couple seasons has left a little something to be desired, so a step backward could be a major problem. He will get plenty of slack, but this program can't go into a multi-year swoon. I think the Hoyas' performance this season could have a far-reaching impact on JT3 and the team's immediate next few season; an underachieving season just can't happen.

(Image courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

Week 10: Eagles 59, Redskins 28: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football's regular season is past the halfway point! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking have aged me about 9 years in these 9 games. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the ninth game of the season:
 

Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh......

The McNabb contract made me the opposite of speechless, and that game was beyond words.

 I wish I blacked out today. I will post more extensively on the horror that is the McNabb contract, but combining that 'thing' with the loss that puts us a longshot for the playoffs is a lot for one fan in one day. I know it was defensive issues that doomed this team tonight, but re-signing McNabb is basically committing to more of the same.

•  Hey we held them under 600 yards. We can build on this!
• Through 3 quarters, Philly averaged 10.2 yards per play.
• What happened to the idea that good coaches thrive after a bye week?
• I couldn't wait to hear Matt Millen's take on the McNabb contract. I was giddy.
• 4-5 is one thing, another is that the Eagles and Giants are looking pretty good, and we likely will have to catch at least one of them to get in the playoffs.
• McNabb through 3 quarters, 75.2 qb rating. Nothing is changing. For 3 more years.
• Jerome Harrison was practically given away by Cleveland and is probably better than any RB on our roster.
• Is it beating a dead horse bringing up the Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly vs. DeSean Jackson point, right? 
• I came up with a positive though for not drafting DeSean Jackson.Stay with me......we didn't draft him because we had Santana Moss, and didn't want 2 players with identical skill sets. Well, we likely wouldn't have given Brandon Banks a shot if Jackson was on the roster, and Banks is just about all that brings me Redskin joy these days. No counter-arguments please.
• I don't recall seeing FedEx that empty for a regular season game at any point.
• I guess the bright side is that the Eagles may be much better than most realize, they were Football Outsiders' #2 team coming into this week. They will be #1 for next week.
• The Skins were FO's #22 team. We will drop.
• To reiterate, the story is not just the Skins sucking, but the Eagles joining the Giants as too good for the Skins to past. We aren't making the playoffs.
• I guess Orakpo could've gotten hurt, so it could have been a worse day.
• Hey, Todd McShay's 1st mock draft is out! Offseason champions! Where's Herm Edwards?!? We can build on this!

(Image courtesy of www.sportsnewscaster.com)

Why Statistics Get a Bad Name, and D******* Hall Has a Good One

Don't get me wrong, I am a huge fan of WaPo's Redskins Insider as the best news source on the Skins, and am excited about the idea of having a 'statistician' post on the blog about once a week, but an idea is just that. The stat guy's name is Brian Burke (not that Brian Burke) and although he has his own site and I generally appreciate the blog is moving in a good direction by using stats, Burke's post from today is asinine.

He picks the Skins defensive players 'helping the team the most.' He uses a stat called "+WPA", which is basically a measure of how much a playmaker a guy is. To Burke's credit, he notes on his site that, "...there are the "gamblers," players who shoot gaps when they should be reading the play or cornerbacks who jump pass routes when they should stay in position. Certainly, +WPA would be biased in favor of these types of players." Fine, except his post today literally says, "Time to look at the MVPs on defense."

So he has Vonnie Holiday as the MVP of the DL (his mere presence on the team is a whole 'nother post), LFB as the MVP of the linebackers, Dirty 30 as the top safety in the entire NFL.....okay, nothing crazy there.....and then this tidbit:

"And that brings us to DeAngelo Hall, whose first eight games of the season defy words. With 9 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 2 tackles for losses, and 6 interceptions -- not to mention a fumble recovery returned for touchdown -- Hall has totaled 2.00 +WPA. Needless to say, he leads the league. The closest other cornerback is Charles Woodson of the Packers with 1.31 +WPA. Woodson is closer to the 22nd-ranked cornerback than he is to Hall. That's how amazing Hall's 2010 has been so far."

I feel like I just got punched in the brain. Hall has never been nearly as good as his reputation, and metrics should be used for the good of pointing out such a misconception. Yes, the guy is a playmaker, and it is very likely he has been the top 'playmaking' CB in the NFL - he even won that Chicago game for us with 4 INTs. But to say his season has been amazing is just absurd. In fact, he has been really bad, and grossly outplayed by Carlos Rogers. Hall does not shadow each team's #1, and is not across from an elite CB, yet there is a reason teams continually throw at him.......he's not good. I have heard over radio, but am having trouble finding online, that Football Outsiders game charters have Hall as possibly theee worst CB in the NFL so far this year. I found confirmation that he has been the most thrown at player in the league so far, and I also heard that he has the lowest success rate in stopping throws against him

 The Usual Work of D******* Hall

To recap, teams are targeting Hall often and with great success.

You know why Nnamdi Asomugha never gets 6 INTs through 8 games? Because he is so good (and partly the Raiders stupid for only playing him on one side of the field) that he was only thrown at 28 times last season. 28 times! To match Hall's raw numbers, and using 14 targets in 8 games, Asomugha would have had to intercept almost 1/2 of the passes thrown his way, and breakup the rest. Hall's season does not defy words, he just stinks at his job while being a tremendous ballhawk, and thus equates out to be a 'boom or bust' player. Not only are these types of players less valuable than those who are consistent (Rogers), but Hall is having waaay too many 'busts' this year despite the high number of highlights

But Hall can't be that bad you say? Burke makes the point in his +WPA explanation that, "...if their gambles were really hurting a team, I doubt they'd be given much slack and playing time by their coaches." Burke needs to become better acquainted with the Redskins franchise under Dan Snyder; we don't just give them playing time, we give them fat contracts.

(Image courtesy of footballhunger.com)

John Wall Wishes he Had What Lester Hudson Has

6 games, 1 almost triple-double, and one kind of almost quadruple-double. I think it's safe to say John Wall is adapting to the NBA pretty well.

For those of you who aren't watching Wall, he is must-see TV. The Gamechanger couldn't be more appropriate. He has had his downs, but he has also been the dominant player in 2 of his 6 games, which not-coincidentally are also the only 2 wins the Wizards have so far.

But tonight was special. Wall was everywhere, just a constant pest on defense while controlling everything on offense. His final line: 19 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds, 6 steals, and 1 turnover. Yes, that is a triple-double, and 4 steals away from a quadruple-double. Trust me, those 4 steals seemed very obtainable the way Wall was playing, but even so, I thought he'd have to be as close as almost anyone has ever come to a quadruple-double.

I did some research and there have been 4 quadruple-doubles in NBA history, and one as recently as 1994. I am surprised there have been that many and even more surprised that 8 guys have come within 1 assist, rebound, or steal of the feat. Larry Bird is one of those 8, and in that performance sat out the 4th quarter!, wow. Hakeem Olajuwon is 1 assist away from having performed the feat twice. Good lord. So maybe John Wall's night wasn't that special.

I did a little more digging and there has only been 1 quadruple-double ever recorded in Men's Div. 1 NCAA basketball. No, not Pistol Pete, Shaq, Oscar Robinson, etc......Lester freaking Hudson. Yes, the same Lester Hudson who occupies the end of the lowly Wizards bench.Of all people...

Lester Preparing for His Role in the NBA

So much for Wall's night being historic other than being the 3rd youngest player to record a triple-double, and 6th fastest player to do it in terms of games played. More importantly though, Wall was electric and clearly looked capable of being the superstar the Wiz need. There will be more triple-doubles and wins to come, and at the rate Wall dishes assists and collects steals, a quadruple-double at some point isn't such a crazy possibility.

(Wall image courtesy of washingtonpost.com, Hudson image courtesy of celticsblog.com)

Cleveland Jocks Lebron

I am a huuuge fan of the original Nike one, but here is a redux courtesy of the scorned sports wasteland:

Had some trouble getting the video to fit our fancy formatting, but it never gets old seeing someone else hate LBJ after us Wizards fans were first on the bandwagon.

Brandon Banks Gets No Love, and Then Gets Hurt

When my favorite Redskin Brandon Banks put on the greatest return performances I have ever seen against the Detroit Lions last week, including a kickoff return TD, it appeared a mere formality that he would be named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week. And then, there was silence....

I didn't think much of it, but for a mediocre team and an awesome player, a normally crappy award actually could give us fans some excitement. Not a peep though from Redskins Insider or anywhere, so I did about 8 seconds of research and discovered that Green Bay Packers punter Tim Masthay was actually the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week....what!?!

I did about 5 minutes more research on who votes on this award, and haven't found anything. Masthay put 5 of his 8 punts inside the 20, and the Jets had 0 punt return yards against him, but come on, a 41.5 yard net average indicates that he wasn't kicking superhuman distances. Does anyone know who picks these awards? Is it one guy, or is it a committee of idiots? Going through the play-by-play, here are the big plays from the Gamebreaker:

• 46 yard KO return to Detroit territory
• 24 yard punt return to Detroit territory
• 95 yard KO return TD nullified by penalty
• 35 yard punt return to Detroit territory
• 96 yard KO return TD

Even excluding the TD that never was, those are 4 huuuge plays and way bigger than 5 punts inside the 20. Plus, the dude's a punter...

Alas, my boy Banks will not get to avenge this wrongdoing next week as word is out that he somehow sustained an injury and had minor knee surgery this week. Great, grand, wonderful. The good news is he may only miss 1 game. The bad news is Redskin games will get even more boring as there goes the Redskin 'offense'.

In other news, the Caps are on a 4 game win streak and now have the best record in the Eastern Conference.

(Image courtesy of DC Sports Bog)

Week 8: Lions 37, Redskins 25: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football's regular season is at the halfway point! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking are in full swing. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the eighth game of the season:

This one was depressing all the way through, the only exciting parts were the kick and punt returns by either team. This one is also costly in a season where we will need to scratch and claw our way to 9-7.

• Brandon Banks put on the best return show I have ever watched. They should name the NFC special teams player of the week award after him. I don't think anyone would mind, although maybe someone like Morten Anderson would be furious.
• Brandon Banks not doing the John Wall dance on the TD that was called back was a crushing blow for me, but watching the wee man squeak a 'dunk' over the goalpost was a solid consolation prize. Then of course my man came through with the John Wall on the TD that counted. 
• In the competition for my favorite Redskin there is Brandon Banks, and then there is everyone else.
• What do you think the score would have been if Banks and Stefan Logan had average days? 3-0?
• Brandon Banks is going to have a costly fumble at some point.
• Joey Galloway provides absolutely nothing. I still can't believe Devin Thomas in the exact same role couldn't replicate that production.http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=301031013
• D******* Hall earned my praise last week, but had what can almost be called a typical game for him. Sure he got on Sportscenter with the endzone interception, but Football Outsiders game tracking (heard this and can't find the numbers now) as the CB with the most passes completed against, and the lowest success rate of stopping passes thrown at him. Basically teams are throwing at Hall more often and with more success than any other CB in the league.
• I am dead serious when I ask why not try him at WR?
• Keiland Williams...not bad
• The O-line looked awful. Rabach is finished, but we also need to get at least 1 young good guard in the offseason. Torain getting 10 yards on 9 carries is all you need to know.
• For all of you who want Sexy Rexy to play, and yes, there are many of these people now....well, be careful what you wish for. McNabb's greatest strength this year, in my opinion, has been that he avoids fumbling the ball away despite facing plenty of pressure.
• I hate McNabb, but benching him during what is now a standard mediocre performance to put on the ice cold Sexy Rexy for the crucial drive is nuts.
• My favorite graphic of the day was Fox showing McNabb's game-by-game QB ratings and saying he's been up and down.......ehhhh a 75 rating is not 'up'.
• With today being what is now a normal day for D-Mac, and although I've heard Grossman looks great in practice, let's not forget Sexy Rexy's career QB rating is under 70.
• Jason Campbell had another good game for a Raiders team that now has the same record as the Skins.
• Fat Albert looked like an older Ndama%^&(* Suh.
• 37 points to the Lions?!?

(Image courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

The Team Formerly Known as the Senators in the World Series

The World Series starts tomorrow, and all I care is that New York and Philly are out, so who to root for? Well, to drop a little knowledge on you, the Texas Rangers were once the Washington Senators. For those of you too lazy to click the link, the Senators existed from 1891-1899, took a 1 year hiatus, and then were back in DC from 1901-1960, before moving to Dallas and becoming the Texas Rangers. A new Senators franchise then came to DC in 1961, and lasted until 1971 before moving to Minnesota to become the Twins. So what does this all mean? Well, the Kirby Pucket Twins won a world series, but for the team that was a running joke, maybe some kind of weird curse is being lifted.....or maybe DC really is the worst sports city.

I wish I got to make jokes about Josh Hamilton falling off the wagon during a postgame champagne celebration (yes, I know they used ginger ale) and Ron Washington dying to get a 'sniff' every time the game gets tense (or boring). What does this mean for your rooting interest? I have no idea.

Week 7: Redskins 17, Bears 14: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football season is almost at the halfway point! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking are in full swing. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the seventh game of the season:

Lucky anybody? In a game that will be remembered for turnovers, the Redskins fumbled 6 times and only lost 1 of them. Not to mention McNabb's 2nd pick-6 that was called back only for McNabb's miscue of letting the play clock run out, and Jay Cutler's goal line fumble looked like a game-winning (losing?) TD to me. I watched this one in an NYC bar so didn't get to full appreciate(?) this one, so will keep this relatively brief.

• I should probably give credit to D******* Hall and I will, he had an incredible game showing the playmaker he is; I seriously considered typing his first name. 
• I will stop there though, because one must remember that truly elite cornerbacks almost never even have the chance for 4 INTs because they are thrown at so infrequently. For example, Nnamdi Asomugha was targeted on average about 1.5 times per game last year by Football Outsiders stat tracking, whereas Hall is getting targeted constantly playing across from Carlos Rogers.
• Hall is also the 12th highest paid player in the league this season, ahead of Asomugha and Darrelle Revis. 
• Those INTs do make up for a lot of completions, and I believe vault him into the NFL lead for INTs this season.
• Hall was tied for Cutler's 2nd leading receiver, behind only Johnny Knox's 6 catches.
• Hall isn't great at covering, but clearly has amazing hands......can he play WR?

• McNabb was bad again, meanwhile Jason Campbell quarterbacked the Raiders to 59(!) points.
• Sure glad we didn't trade the house for Cutler before last season.
• We are a New York Giants loss in Dallas away from being in 1st place again. 
• Rak is currently tied for 3rd in the league in sacks, and on pace for 16 this season. I kid you not when I say I expected more than that coming into the season.
• Tana and Cooley keep chugging along, each having a great season while no one else steps up.
• Remember the time against the Colts when Fat Albert didn't play and we were one play away from winning the game? At least 3 great plays today and a reminder why the Skins were the #1 1-yard-to-go defense last year.

 Flying Fat Albert to 'Stop' Cutler

• We have already matched last year's win total, but given how much this team has mortgaged for this season, we want and need a lot more.
• In what may be the most parity driven season in NFL history, where the pathetic Bills can almost beat the preseason Super Bowl favorite Ravens, the Skins just might have a chance.
  

(Hall image courtesy of www.suntimes.com, Haynesworth image courtesy of DC Sports Bog)