The State of the Capitals - A Discussion - Part 1

I was privy to a lengthy email chain last week that started with some basic mockery of the Islanders drawing 9,000 fans, which quickly moved onto remembering attending an Orioles-Tigers game on a rainy Wednesday night at Camden yards maybe 7 years ago when the Tigers were historically bad - the game went down as the lowest attended in Camden Yards history until last season, but the actual attendance due to the rain has to make it the lowest actual attendance. We sat in centerfield and when we yelled, the batter could definitely hear us. Oh memories..

Anyway, the email chain turned into a serious discussion about the state of the Caps, so I decided to turn everyone's thoughts into a blog post. This was a long email chain, so I am breaking this into two posts and haven't edited almost anything.

Polish Sausage: Who else likes this years team for the cup more than last (aside from the fact that Bruce continues to strand Ovie on the point during the PP...)?

Red Rover: I vascillate (Ed. Note: we use dictionary words in our spare time). On the one hand, we are not a very good team right now, like, at all. Not good on the power play, not good at possessing the puck, not outshooting the other team, our best players are not our best players right now, and there is a general feeling of flatness/malaise that feels like it's rotting this team from the inside out.

On the other hand, when I thought we were dominant last year, we crapped out in the playoffs, so it would appear that nothing in the regular season matters at all, and i mean nothing. Also we are now able to execute boring, ugly gameplans, where you can win without high-flying goal scoring, and we've seen a few games (Winter Classic, for example) where when you couple that boring defensive gameplan with 100% effort you can win 3-1 and look good, and that's what the playoffs are like and i don't see anything less than 100% effort happening come playoff time, but i've been wrong before about that. And we now have a shutdown D pairing that can also score (Carlson and Alzner) which is quite a luxury, plus if (knock on wood) Varly remains healthy, he's absolutely awesome. Then there's the hope that the law of averages damn will break come April and Ovi, Backstrom, Laich and Semin will all start scoring again in bunches, when it counts.

Then I watch a game again and I'm like goddamn, this team is not very good.

Bushwood Bushwacker: I had basically the same thought process the other night watching the Isles. I thought, "this team HAS to be better than the team we put on the ice last year - there is no way around it. there's no way the core did any worse than maintain, and all of the younger guys MUST have improved (plus obvious steps forward for Karlznerson, though you could say Carlson was really pretty nasty down the stretch last year, and this is just the continuation...) and we replaced Flash, Belanger, Theo and Corvo, with Hannan, Nuevlamoth 2.0, and Perrault/MJo. granted those guys minus the goalies have all been pretty meh, but all we really lost was Flash. and then i thought, well... this isn't the playoffs. maybe these guys have been burnt so badly by the overachieve-in-season/flop-postseason shitck that they just can't do it again. they are playing like an old, veteran NBA team, pacing themselves. Plus, there's the fact we did get pretty lucky last year looking at our shooting %. Maybe this is closer to the true talent of the team. But, I'm guessing not, since a lot of the missing production is Ovie/Back/Green, and those guys are sure as hell going to bounce back.

I have the feeling that as soon as the hockey world counts these guys out of the playoffs, and puts them outside of the circle of serious contenders, is when this team is going to play the best hockey they've played.........ever. Kind of a microcosm of that feeling is how often we come from behind and win games. For whatever reason, this team is a bunch of slackers who probably turned their theses (if they ever went to college...) in 30 seconds before the deadline.They just are built to perform best when they have the fire lit under their asses.
 

Gotta love being the underdog when you really shouldn't be, those teams are always dangerous.

I have hope.

 

RR: I do too, but the issue of course is WHEN that fire lights their asses. There will come a point when it's too late.
 

But like I said, the defensively oriented style is better built for a playoff series because it's more likely to lead to victories when they're not playing their best or when the other team is. The playoffs tighten everything and every team together in performance and ability; last year that meant the Caps' death knell because when their power play went bankrupt they had nothing else to lean on. So with this foundation in place now, we just await that give-a-shit spark to ignite (and the stars to pick it up, which we're all assuming is an inevitability).

 

*****

The 2nd half will posted soon...thought you might need some time to digest....

(Image courtesy of dcprosportsreport.com)

Let Me Show You How Exciting John Wall Is

While you were waiting for the posting to pick back up, I was busy doing some work with the website Thuuz (pronounced like I am en-THOOZ-iastic about Nick Young's 'Thriller' hair) on excitement statistics - you're damn right I just used excitement and statistics in the same sentence.

The site has developed an algorithm to measure the excitement of a sporting event. The main idea they have now is to let you know if a game you have DVR'ed is worth watching (without telling you the score), and when the best time is to start watching. The algorithm takes into account factors such as the game's pace, novelty, and how close the score is. The output is supposed to be the excitement an unbiased individual would get from the game.

They approached me back in November, after I wrote about the Wizards-Pistons game in Detroit for Bullets Forever. The game registered a perfect 100 score in the Thuuz system and it turns out that these guys can do a lot with the algorithm and statistics. I got them to do a breakdown of each player's contribution to the game's excitement. They have done their best work with basketball, but measure the excitement of other sports as well.

For the table below, the only heading needing explanation is 'Impact.' This is a measure of the number of plays a player makes that contribute directly to the game's outcome - I believe this is something close to points, assists, rebounds, etc. The reasoning behind this measure is that the excitement rating would not highly rate a player on a good team, because a team that increases their lead is boring, not exciting, so a measure is needed for these types of players. I hope that makes sense. Without further adieu, the numbers for the Wiz-Pistons game:

		Washington vs. Detroit			11/21/2010
Player	Play Time	Impact	Excitement	Impact/Minute	Excitement/Minute
Arenas	42.80	43	35.32	1.00	0.83
Hinrich	39.40	25	-2.95	0.63	-0.07
Thornton	31.32	17	-3.94	0.54	-0.13
Blatche	43.88	37	-19.97	0.84	-0.46
McGee	42.27	39	-42.98	0.92	-1.02
Armstrong	10.63	4	-14.10	0.38	-1.33
Young	30.68	20	5.92	0.65	0.19
Booker	9.15	4	0.99	0.44	0.11
Martin	14.67	9	-9.43	0.61	-0.64

Not surprisingly, Gil was the Wizards most impactful and exciting player. The interesting thing about this game though, is that John Wall did not play. So what happens when you add JWow to the mix? Fortunately, the Wiz played another game just 2 days later that also was a 100 on the excitement scale, this time with the Future. Here are the numbers:

		Philadelphia vs. Washington			11/23/2010
Player	Play Time	Impact	Excitement	Impact/Minute	Excitement/Minute
Arenas	41.98	21	114.67	0.50	2.73
Hinrich	34.85	21	58.08	0.60	1.67
Thornton	8.17	0	6.28	0.00	0.77
Blatche	42.70	37	62.35	0.87	1.46
McGee	45.85	61	22.88	1.33	0.50
Armstrong	5.45	1	-8.99	0.18	-1.65
Wall	35.93	33	135.84	0.92	3.78
Martin	6.40	1	12.74	0.16	1.99
Young	31.75	27	74.61	0.85	2.35
Booker	11.87	9	7.30	0.76	0.62

Granted, it was a huuuge game for JWow, but look at his excitement rating! This is only 1 game, but the bottom line is that Wall was the most exciting player from any team in either game. This also gives a nice little comparison of how the team looks in terms of impact with Wall on and off the court.  I obviously sat on this data way too long, and any comparison with Gil Arenas is now moot with him off the team. If you are wondering why the Wizards have more total excitement in the 76ers game, it is because the rest of the excitement is accounted for by the opposition, so the Wizards drove the excitement in game #2.

Thuuz is starting to do a lot more with all of their data, so I just wanted to give you a taste of what they do as I begin to post their data more regularly. I have discussed with them what types of stats and metrics would be most interesting and useful, so let me know any and all ideas. The next step is for Thuuz to get larger sample sizes for individual players so we can truly track who is exciting over the course of a season........that way we'll have proof when John Wall becomes the league's most exciting player.

Mel Kiper Thinks The Offseason Dynasty Will Continue

I first of all should say that the break in blogging was because I was swamped by a lot of personal 'stuff', but am back and refreshed or something like that.........

I can't say I didn't see this coming, but Mel Kiper's first mock draft came out today and, well, I can't say I didn't warn you:

10. Washington Redskins
Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
A gifted athlete, Newton has good arm strength and size, has developing accuracy and continues to show that the more you ask him as a passer, the more he'll develop. This spot might be a bit high based on his current grade in the eyes of scouts, but Newton's skill-set is such that personnel people are going to become more enamored, if they already aren't. Newton has character questions that need to be answered, but the Redskins have a long-term need at this position and the prospect of developing Newton is a tantalizing one.

Pleaselordno.

I could give you the whole whole running QB thing being a bad idea, especially while our offensive line is a gaping hole of suck, but let's look at this more rationally and use some metrics. Football Outsiders has found a way to predict college quarterback performance in the pros with 2 simple stats: games started and completion percentage. I understand he put together the best individual season in recent memory, but for metrics, well he only started 1 full season. 66% completion  rate is great, but that figure is relative to others in the same school supposedly in a relatively similar system, and the immortal Chris Todd managed over 60% in 2009, so 66% is not that impressive. The overall metric indication on Cam Newton is: pleaselordno.

Soooo, what should the Skins do? Ryan Mallett actually has terrific metrics thanks to starting 2.5 years and would be a better QB pick. Even better though? Well, I have some bad news. I am a nut about the NFL draft, and Kiper's mock highlights the fact that there is a big dropoff after the first 9 players - and guess who picks #10!

Clearly, the Skins should trade back, take an o-lineman, Ryan Mallett, or just about anybody not named Cam Newton, even if we get to call him 'Killa Cam.' On the bright side, drafting the controversial Heisman trophy winner would continue the offseason dynasty that almost no team can take away from us.

(Image courtesty of mobilephoneunlimited.com)

Better Than The Capitals Power Play

This sound.



Yea, I'm completely fucking frustrated.

/Throws Ovechkin bobblehead against the wall which, coincidentally, is WHERE HE SHOULD BE ON EVERY SINGLE MAN ADVANTAGE.

Start Your Office Pools: When Will the Wizards Get Their First Road Win?

Oh and fifteen 

0-15

Zero for 15

29 games into the season, the Wizards are 7-22, holding worst record in the East, and 2nd-worst in the entire league ahead of only the 5-23 Kings (one of those 5 Kings wins was over the Wiz too). That is bad, but 0-15 on the road is a turd sandwich. For those of you curious, according to wikipedia, the worst road record ever also belongs to this franchise: the '53-'54 Baltimore Bullets went 0-20 on the road. What is it about changing that name back?

Eh, isn't 0-20 coming up soon?

This season has long been chalked up (down?) to rebuilding, so I say we should enjoy the futility while we can......with a pool! Pools are good for babies, March Madness, swimming, they never fail. The Wiz 'only' have 27 road games left, so get started!

Call me crazy, but I think the Wiz may actually win a road game soon, and I don't mean by the end of the season. We get the 76ers on January 5th, and have 2 of our 7 wins against them already, and then follow that game with a trip to Charlotte on the 8th, and then 8-24 Minnesota on the 13th. After that, our next good shot is February 13th against the Cavs, but that's the 2nd night of a back-to-back, so scratch that one. If we don't win one of the Philly, Charlotte, or T'Wolves games, then this could get very hairy very quickly.

Will we be favored in any of those games? Hell no! If anyone gets a pool going though, put me down for Philly.

(Image courtesy of commons.wikimedia.org)

Week 16: Redskins 20, Jaguars 17: Knee Jerk Reactions

The Redskin's season is almost mercifully over! Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the penultimate game of the season:

This seriously felt like a preseason game until the 4th quarter. The Skins were playing almost all backups, and the Jags were missing MJD and a few other guys. There just wasn't an intensity today, which is odd when you have so many guys playing for their future in the league.

I know this win hurts our draft position and thus may bad in the long term, but you can't help but think this group needed a W with all the drama going around.

• Sex Cannon's record as a starter in the state of Florida counting his college days has got to be something like 47-2.
• The gator chomp? Rex, seriously?
• Brandon Banks in the wildcat should be the focus of our offense next week. It would keep my interest and get the Banks Pro Bowl train back at full speed.
• Kevin Barnes at safety could merely be necessity, but also maybe a sign the teams doesn't think he will be a decent corner.
• The Jags look awful, how are they a potential division winner?
• Speaking of the opposition, maybe the Skins should take a page out of their book and spend our first 2 picks on o-linemen.
• Anthony Bryant may have played himself onto the roster for next season.
• Casey Rabach needs to go ASAP.
• Going for it on 4th and 1 from the 1 yard line with the game on the line is the right call. Not only is it statistically the right move, but we are 5-9, so who cares! 
• Joe Joseph? As in Joseph Joseph? Wow.
• The o-line was not awful today, but not great. Hicks and Dockery/Licht*&#$& all still need to be replaced.
• We are no 4-4 on the road, and 2-5 at home, hmmmm. Almost makes me feel guilty for never going to games...

(Image courtesy of 1800-sports.com)

Redskins - Jaguars Live Chat on TBD.com

If you are watching today's game alone, it will probably feel a little bit like drinking alone - but fear not! Come join the TBD.com live chat and drink, err chat, with fellow devoted fans. I will be there as a panelist along with a few other Redskins bloggers.

Check it out here: Redskins-Jaguars Live Chat

What the Caps and the Jersey Shore Have in Common

Tonight's episode of 24/7 was not as good as the first, save for one amazing fact about the Caps: the team celebrates every victory with a fist pumping rendition of DJ Pauly D's "It's Time to Beat Dat Beat." Yes, as in the Pauly D from MTV's Jersey Shore.

Awesome.

The Best Shot I Could Get from My TV of the Locker Room iPod

The Caps 8 game losing streak meant that we were not privy to this information before tonight, but again, awesome. Almost every member of the team gave a few fist pumps.

Other notes:

• Highly paid professionals getting excited about a new equipment delivery is amazing.
• Ovechkin walked into the training room with a towel on and nothing else.
• For a road trip Ovie appeared to fill his small suitcase with just 1 item, his Playstation.
• Combining all this Ovie information leads me to believe he just walks around the hotel naked on road trips.
• Sidney Crosby is really lame
• Hockey injuries in HD are the opposite of a highlight, but still very cool to see if you're into that sort of thing, creep.
• The f-bombs by the Caps are pretty gratuitous. I don't care about 'foul' language, but just pointing it out. It's not just Boudreau either, the other guys drop 'em everywhere, even Ovie in his broken English. I imagine the team cursing comes from the culture created by Boudreau. 
• Even though I don't care about cursing, the Caps, the language is part of a loose and not always disciplined atmosphere. I sure as hell don't think cursing has anything to do with the Caps winning the Cup, but the contrast between the Caps and Penguins team culture is remarkable.
• Mike Knuble did exactly what I thought this team needed in the 1st intermission of the Boston game - gave a rousing speech about the Caps picking it up. That game went from a 3-0 potential obliteration to a tight 3-2 loss and may have been the turning point in this slide.
• I think Mike Green wears slippers to and from work.
• I can't believe HBO skipped Ovie and Semin visiting One Lounge and showing them in a party environment.
• Penguins game tonight, let's beat dat beat!

Gilbert Arenas Tribute Day

I will write something more extensive about Gilbert Arenas, likely tomorrow. But am belated because I spent a lot of time working on the Gilbert Arenas Tribute Day for Bullets Forever, which has been all over the web. I had the pleasure of writing on his top 5 buzzer beaters, but all of the posts are must-read.

I won't say too much now, but despite my constant negativity towards his awful contract, I won't forget how he led a pathetic franchise back to some kind of relevance. Gil made me, and probably many of you, passionately care about the Wizards/Bullets for the first time.

(Image courtesy of dcprosportsreport.com)

Week 15: Cowboys 33, Redskins 30: Knee Jerk Reactions

 Football's regular season is almost over! Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the fourteenth game of the season:

I watched this one in a bar in Manhattan, so was semi-distracted by all the other happenings and will thus keep this short. I was pretty disinterested coming into the game, 'Kitna! Grossman! It's the Redskins and the Cowboys on Fox!!' and want us to keep losing for sake of high draft picks, but was getting fired up when the comeback got going.

Sums Up my Feelings About the Season

• Sex Cannon.
• Sitting in a Manhattan bar as the Eagles came back from 21 points in 8 minutes to beat the Giants was special. I delight in other fans having to share my misery.
• Sex Cannon's numbers were about as good as any McNabb game, but I think he was slightly worse. The biggest thing I noted was a tendency to hold onto the ball too long.
• In short, yes, I think McNabb would have been the better player today for the Redskins, but the difference between McNabb and Sex Cannon really doesn't seem to be much. Also, this was Sex Cannon's first game, and one has to think that he would improve with more games under his belt.
• I might set a record for typing Sex Cannon in 1 post.
• McNabb is still a captain today? Come on man! NFL captains are fluid, and I thought the starting QB is always a captain.
• Not all of those sacks were the O-line's fault. One notable one by Ware was Grossman hanging onto the ball too long and then not stepping up enough in the pocket.
• D******* Hall still sucks. Coverage and tackling are things he does not do well.  
• The Brandon Banks Pro Bowl train has come to a complete halt.
• The Tana drop was not as bad as it looked. He was off balance and couldn't really get his arms out for that one. That said, it was still a horrific drop.
• Does anybody still think the McNabb trade and/or extension were correct decisions? 
• I completely forgot about John Beck's mullet, which allowed me to 'fall in lover all over again.'
• The good thing about being numb? A tough loss to Dallas doesn't hurt.

(Image courtesy of DC Sports Bog and Mr. Irrelevant)