The Wizards' Black Santa

Chanukah may have come a few hours early when word leaked that the Wizards and Magic are still discussing a trade involving Gilbert Arenas, aka the (2nd) worst contract in the league.

The Magic are tied for the best record in the East at 13-4 and appear to be a title contender as currently constructed, without making.......wait, I'll stop. Orlando feels the need to add another playmaker and apparently are leaving no stone unturned if they are considering a guy coming off of 2 knee surgeries and with 4 years and over $80 million left on his contract. Gil put on nice show against the Magic last week in what could have been his audition.

 Black Santa (aka Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith)

Let's be clear, the Wizards are in last place in the Eastern Conference, starting a rebuilding process, and need to get rid of Agent Zero Six Shooter Gilbert Arenas. Gil is not part of the future, is not a great mentor and/or leader for the youngsters, and his massive contract is a huge handicap. The problem is finding someone to take this albatross off of our hands. Almost any trade that involves Gil leaving DC would be a good one, as there is no contract (other than Joe Johnson's) that I wouldn't take back for his. 'Locker room cancer' Vince Carter and his contract with 1 year remaining for Gil? - Where do I sign up!?!

The rumored deal involves Gil and Andray Blatche from the Wiz, and some combination of Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, and Daniel Orton from the Magic. VC and Lewis cannot be in the trade together, as the Wiz have almost no way of matching both of their bloated salaries. The Wiz could take one of those 2 in any deal involving Arenas. Both have similar salaries, with the main difference being that VC has 1 year left on his deal, and Lewis has 3.

VC for Gil is a no-brainer. VC could be the worst possible player to put on a young team, and I would consider just sending VC home for the season to keep him away from the youngsters and then creating a pool of coins in the summer with the 3 years of savings from Gil's contract.

Lewis for Gil is a closer match, but again, something the Wizards have to do as it cuts 1 year off of Gil's contract. I do hesitate here though, as Gil is the superior player and Lewis is aging quickly so may be impossible to move before his contract is up in 3 years, whereas Gil actually could play well enough that we could get rid of him in under 3 seasons.

Then there is the twist with the Magic wanting Andray Blatche. 7 Day Dray hasn't had a great season, not taking the step forward we'd hoped for, and saying his defense has been disinterested would be kind. That said, he is still only 24 and has a very reasonable contract that runs for 5 more years. He does not look like a long term answer for the Wizards, but he still has trade value. Not only that, but his value is about as low as it can be right now.

Orton would be a nice young guy to add in the deal (I also would like Ryan Anderson), but Blatche is more valuable. If the deal is Gil and Blatche for Lewis and Orton, then we are basically giving up Blatche for 1 less year of Gil's contract, and I think that is a steep price. VC and Orton for Gil and Blatche is a much tougher call, with the bottom line being whether the Wiz are willing to give up Blatche to cut 3 years off of Gil's contract.

I think the Wizards have to make the VC deal, as there may not be many other chances to get rid of Gil's contract. But I hope the Wiz can find a way to do this without including Andray. From the perspective of the Magic, the extra years on Gil's deal may not matter much, as their roster is relatively set for the next few years. They also have little use for Blatche. Grunfeld will need to do some smooth talking to make this happen, or Black Santa will have to feel particularly giving.

While I wait for Black Santa to make my holiday season, I will do the rest of my shopping in Allen Iverson's eBay shop. 

(Image courtesy of www.cbc.ca, salary info courtesy of ESPN's NBA Trade Machine)

Gritty Hoyas Make a Statement - Are they Title Contenders?

College basketball's season is decided in March, but that didn't stop Georgetown and Missouri from playing an incredible game with a Big Dance feeling tonight. Fast-paced, close, intense, and well-played.

 

Despite the rankings (#8 to #16) and Vegas line (Tigers by 1.5) favoring Mizzou , this seemed like a favorable matchup for the Hoyas. A well-coached disciplined team with heady ball handlers should be able to handle the Mizzou press, and I think the phrase, 'A well-coached disciplined team with heady ball handlers' is exactly how I'd describe this year's Hoyas.

Now Missouri's ranking may be a little misleading, as they haven't beaten any half-decent team so far: 3 of their 5 wins have been against teams named the Ospreys, Leathernecks, or Explorers. That said, this is still one of the best teams in the country, and as I learned tonight, one with an amazing home court advantage. This was technically a 'neutral court' that just so happened to be situated about and hour and a half from the Mizzou campus, but the fans made it clear who's side they were on. Not only were the16,000+ fans loud, but Mizzou's aggressive defensive style put the refs in a lot of tough positions, and during a home game a lot of those 50/50 calls will go Mizzou's way.

The Hoya start was reminiscent of the glory that was last year's Duke game. The Tiger press was hopeless and Gtown was knocking everything down en route to an 18 point lead. Mizzou got their act together, seized momentum, and chiseled the lead down to 7 by the half - which is about the time I started biting my nails. Mizzou seemed to carry momentum through the 2nd half, but only took their first lead more than midway through the 2nd half. The Hoyas seemed doomed at the point to a quality road loss, but managed the improbable with Chris Wright sinking a last second 3 to send the game to OT. 5 minutes more? Yes please. Jason Clark took it from there, sinking 3 triples in the extra period to make the last 2.5 minutes of overtime pretty comfortable.

I don't know that tonight taught me as much about the Hoyas as it reinforced several beliefs. The team was rudderless without Wright against the Mizzou D, which is why he played 45 minutes. Clark and Freeman put up the bigger numbers, but Wright was and has been the team MVP thusfar. You could almost predict the Mizzou runs because they happened as soon as Wright stepped off the court. It is times like this when I wish gameflows were available for NCAA games, as Wright's +/- has to be fantastic.

I also already knew that the bench is very weak. Fortunately, Mizzou plays a tiny lineup, so Gtown's preference for 3 guards, 1 very small forward, and a center was not a problem. Against a 'normal' team, Julian Vaughan, Nate Lubick, and Henry Sims could be roasted. And even though there are a lot of guards getting minutes for the Hoyas, there is a huuuge dropoff after the big 3. They all looked hesitant out there, and I am once again curious as to the +/- of the big 3. I wish I could say Starks and Lubick will suddenly 'get it', but I just don' think that's happening this year.

This team is 1 injury to any of the big 3 away from being pretty mediocre, but this was an awesome win. Standing up to a hostile crowd and top-10 team makes this one of the best wins in all of college basketball this season to date. The Hoyas cruised to the 18 point lead, but absolutely gutted this one out from there. Mizzou got away with a lot junk on defense, but the Hoyas didn't complain and got equally physical on their defensive side at the end of the game. Not only are there no teams in the Big East that particularly scare me, but there are no teams in the entire NCAA outside of Duke that appear definitely better than the Hoyas right now. 

If Wright, Freeman, and Clark can stay healthy and don't get worn-down from heavy minutes, this could be a season to remember in DC.

(Image courtesy of the AP, via washingtonpost.com)

Week 12: Vikings 17, Redskins 13: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football's regular season is heading down the home stretch! Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the eleventh game of the season:

 Not From Today, but Might as Well Be

Game and season. We need to go 5-0 and pray for a wild card spot. Our first drive was a thing of beauty, but everything else on offense was sad. Then, not being able to stop Toby Gerhardt on defense and give our offense one last shot was excruciating.

If the Packers pass the Bears for 1st place, and the Saints take the #1 Wild Card spot, we will need to pass that Giants, Bears, and Bucs to get a playoff berth. If things go well later this afternoon, we could still only be 2 games back, with 2 cracks against the Giants, and 1 against the Bucs. So start putting your energy into supporting whoever plays those teams.

• Interim coaches in their first game seem to always win right? Unless it's Terry Robiske and the Redskins...we are always the exception....
• I keep forgetting to plug this, but I have been doing a weekly livechat on www.TBD.com. A few Skins bloggers on there and not too crowded, so you can definitely get your voice heard.
• So much for gold pants.
• How does Joey Galloway go from being our '#2' receiver to getting cut? Shouldn't there be a backup role in-between? 
• I can't get over the Galloway thing. Just an awful signing, reinforced by poor production, and then the stubbornness of keeping him in the starting lineup. He has been the 2nd worst receiver in the league, with the only bright side that we targeted him slightly less than other receivers in his ballpark of awful. Just about anyone would have been better, and we completely missed the opportunity to develop a young player or two wit hthe playing time/role.
• Devin Thomas
• Brandon Banks is still great, but was apparently limping during the week. I'm assuming he's taking his pain meds and toughing it out. I wonder if we will see him anywhere close to 100% before the end of the season. 
• Banks is our only chance of scoring. 
• Jeremy Jarmon doesn't exist. 
• Our d-line sans Fat Albert cannot stop the run. If we cut him, we need to find some better guys up front this offseason. 
• Not sure what else to say about the defense. Not a great game from 'Los, but he was hampered by a hammy. The faced a conservative game plan and stopped a Peterson-less offense, meh.
• Silverback had a phenomenal game controlling Jared Allen, who is a monster. He's made his share of mistakes this season, but I think a pro-bowl caliber season is in store as soon as next year.
• Santana Moss was awful. I see he was battling an injury or two, but dropping passes is not okay.
• Cooley was awesome on that first drive and then...? Silence.

A Little Something to Cheer You Up - Found This Looking for a Game Shot

• I don't even know how to get excited for the Giants game next week.

(McNabb image courtesy of VikingsPost.com, cheerleader image courtesy of nfl.fanhouse.com)

The Redskins Aren't Mathematically Eliminated.....Yet

My Redskins optimism died quickly after that Titans game when I realized that we are 2 games back of a wildcard spot, and have to pass 3 teams for that last spot. Dead, and maybe not quite buried if we beat Minnesota this weekend. But maybe I was being too optimistic. Here's a quote from Redskins Insider's Brian Burke (as also mentioned by Mister Irrelevant):

"The NFC wildcard teams are probably going to need to win at least 10 games this season, so the Redskins would need to finish 5-1 to have a reasonable chance at the playoffs. Based on measures of team strength and forthcoming schedules, the numbers give the Redskins a 6 percent chance of making the postseason."

I panned this guy a couple weeks ago for giving statistics a bad name, but this is great stuff using statistics to make a rational point. We all have thought 9-7 would be enough to squeak into the playoffs since the preseason in a parity-driven league, but there is almost no way at least 2 of the 4 teams ahead of the Skins do not win 10 games. And, as you quickly realize, 10 wins means an improbable 5-1 finish.

A win over the Vikings this weekend would dramatically increase that 6%, and keep hope alive in DC, but it really is time to start looking at the offseason. This tortured sports city has a lot to be thankful for: Alex Ovechkin, Ted Leonsis, John Wall, Matt Wieters, and Stephen Strasburg to name a few, but a playoff-bound Redskins team is not one of of them.

(Image courtesy of www.zimbio.com)

Looking Ahead to Redskins Offseason Plans

I have realized that with 6 games to play, 2 games to makeup in the wild card race, and 3 teams to pass, the Skins playoff hopes are all but non-existant. So, on to the offseason!

I already made my thoughts clear on the McNabb contract, but this post is inspired by Shutdown Corner's Midseason 'No Pro' Team, which is basically the worst and/or most under-performing players in the league. No, McNabb was handily beaten out Brett Favre, but the entire interior of the Redskins line was named, ouch.

An Oldy, but Pretty Much Sums it Up

How can we gauge this? Well, the article was written by Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders, so metrics are involved. Long story short, the Skins are the worst team in the NFL at running up the middle. Not surprisingly, the team is also 31st in power running and 29th in runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage - both of which are plays that are linked to blocking up the middle. The good news is the coaching staff appears to realize this and has the team running up the middle on only 33% of run plays, significantly less than the league average of 50% (for all you Silverback lovers, most of those carries have gone around left end).

To summarize, the team has been getting dominated in the middle of the offensive line, and the coaches realize there is a problem.

My eyeballs tell me Casey Rabach has had a bad season and is likely no longer an NFL-caliber starting center. Artis Hicks and Derrick Dockery/Korey Lic(*&#$%@ have all also been culprits. As the article notes, Hicks has 6(!) false starts.

Looking ahead, our 2nd round pick has 'FUTURE CENTER' written all over it. A stud center is a pretty safe pick, as even if center proves difficult, you can always try them at guard. Dropping the cash on a 1st round interior lineman would be rough, as our pick will be in the middle of the first round, and those positions usually aren't drafted until the end of the 1st. This draft also looks to be a bit weak on the offensive line, so grabbing an interior lineman in the 1st round would likely be a huuuge reach. The good news though is that there are 3 quality center prospects . Back in August, Scouts Inc. had FSU's Rodney Hudson as the top interior lineman, and florida's Mike Pouncey not too far behind him. Stefan Wisniewski of Penn State is the 3rd guy who looks like he will be a reasonably high pick. Mid-1st would be aggressive for these guys, but our 2nd round pick would be a great spot to fill a position of need with a player who may be best available at that point.

Or maybe, that would be too logical.

(Image courtesy of www.wtopnews.com)

Week 11: Redskins 19, Titans 16: Knee Jerk Reactions

Football's regular season is past the halfway point! The hair pulling, TV-screaming, remote control throwing and furious cigarette smoking have aged me about 10 years in these 10 games. Before I let rationality cloud my judgment, here are my knee-jerk reactions from the tenth game of the season:

Huuuge win. That would have been a season-ender if we were 4-6 and 3 games out of the last wild card. 

• So, I was really excited about this win and staying in the playoff race, but with 6 games to go, we are 2 games out of the last wild card spot. There are 4 teams ahead of us, with only 2 spots available, so we have to leapfrog 3 of the Giants/Eagles, Bears, Saints, and Bucs.
• As if you didn't already know, but Brandon Banks! 1 tough clutch catch in 1 opportunity. Can we just give him Joey Galloway's job immediately? I mean right now, seriously. 
• I have been thinking of some other nickname ideas for Banks and like "The Wire," because he's electric and maybe thin and wiry or something.
• I want to like Graham Gano, but he is still straddling the line of acceptability. Missing a 51 yarder is no biggy, but being that far off is concerning. The 47 yarder into the wind is a little tougher to swallow, but okay in and of itself. He still hit from 40, 42, and 48, and was providing great distance on kickoffs.
• McNabb had time to throw. Weird. 
• McNabb's stats may sound impressive, but he was once again mediocre, even with tons of time.
• Reed Doughty is an absolute disaster in coverage. I know Kareem Moore makes 1-2 big mistakes a game, and today was no different, but he is a much better option than Doughty. I was watching Doughty specifically as much as I could, and it seemed as thought he almost never successfully covered anyone. I think is fine as a backup strong safety, but free safety is not where I want to see him.
• Yeah, Vince Young is efficient, and his passer rating will look great, but there is a lot to be said for the low volume output. 
• The Buchanon, Hall, Doughty, Moore secondary provided an opportunity on a platter for VY and the Titans to exploit. I thought that pathetic unit would cost us the game, but VY could not take advantage, and that speaks volumes about how good he is. You are kidding if you don't think any great QB doesn't shred that group.
• Randy Moss looked lazy running routes. Glad we didn't get that guy.
• D******* Hall was okay today, but how about you don't beat your chest after Randy Moss runs by you in the endzone and VY throws it about 10 yards over everyone's heads. That was not a good play. 
• Who is Rusty Smith?
• Seems like we played a lot more 2 TE sets today to get Fred 'Sleepy' Davis involved. Niiiiice.
• The gold pants are money.
• Coming into this game, the Skins's offense had been historically bad on 3rd down, which is usually a fluky stat that will regress to the mean. In layman's terms, the Skins have likely been unlucky not to perform better on offense. 8-16 today on 3rd down, so there ya go.
• My friend works for UStream and alerted me to the fact that Skins have their own channel. I have no idea what they show on here, I think pregame and postgame type stuff, but here you go: http://www.ustream.tv/redskins.

(Image courtesy of www.tsn.ca)

The Opposite of Michael Vick Against the Redskins

While on the subject of us being right, here's an early DCLS post on why the Skins should have chased Vick 1.5 yrs ago.

Originally posted May 27th, 2009

***

As if Snyder Needs Convincing: The Case for Vick on the 'Skins

Listen, I'm no Redskins apologist. I hate Dan Snyder with all but two fibers in my being (the two that realize that he's better than this guy). I hope Vinny Cerrato chokes on a danish, or better yet, is fired. FedEx is Hell on Earth. Also, I love puppies, and the worst harm I'd ever inflict on one would be to boot a really tiny loud one off a bridge.

But the Redskins had better dig their star-horny claws into Michael Vick and never let go. And not just because the jersey sales will correlate to an illogical 45% rise in FedEx concession prices. It will work for the Redskins on the field and if you remember, that's the point. Several reasons:

1.) The Redskins' Offense needs an ATHLETE. 'Skins fans lament the lack of a #1 receiver and it's hard to disagree. And some think JC17 isn't the answer behind center. But what's really lacking is a guy who can simply make tacklers miss. Vick's presence alone means the other team has to account for him, game plan for him, think about him before the game. If you've made D-Coordinators think that much harder, you've improved your offense that much...harder. What position exactly? We'll get to that....

Imagine the Opposite of This

2.) We've yet to see the Zorn Star work magic with a Shiny New Wand. In 2008, Zorn adjusted his westcoast pass-happy offense to suit his personnel, which is the mark of an intelligent coach. The result was a bland running based game, due to bland running based personnel. Enter insane athlete. Now, Zorn has studied the Wildcat diligently this offseason and admitted the 'Skins don't have the personnel to make it happen. Yet. Why? "Cleveland, with [Josh] Cribbs....probably did the best, but he's got a real acceleration." So we need someone with real acceleration, preferably with QB experience? Hmmm....

I'm not saying Vick should become the new 'Skins QB. Far from it; I think his unique skills are best utilized in various roles at various times. Sometimes that might mean some QB snaps. Mostly though, he needs plays designed for him specifically in some quasi-hybrid tailback role, a la 1920s football. There has never been an athlete like Vick in the NFL - why not make up a position that's never existed?

3.) Vick will be cheap. I know I know, the Redskins are salary cap wizards and yes, there might not be a cap after this year...but the 'Skins are still paying Mark Carrier like $4.3 million per and contract terms will be critical. Vick's market value is going to be around Bear Sterns' right about now - which for those of you who don't read the Wall Avenue Journal means Vick will be getting dick for salary, and for one or two years tops. Low risk (cap room wise)/high reward is the idea here.

4.) Vick will be motivated. There are just plain ruthless murderous sociopaths, and there are ruthless murderous sociopaths with 10-figure debt and the whole world watching their every move. True: you have to be collossally stupid to squander what Vick had circa 2006, and I wouldn't be surprised if he, Portis, Haynesworth and Smoot were caught financing an underground squirrel-fighting ring or something. But he has to have learned from this. Maybe not in that moral, soul-saving way...but in a superficial my-job-and-life-is-on-the-line way, which is good enough for me. Maybe he'll still have the urge to strangle a labradoodle at first sight - but I get the feeling he'll resist this time. He's in survival mode at this point.

5.) Despite pleas from fans, the 'Skins are determined to win now and delay a rebuild. To most logical fans, 14 years of consistent mediocrity with an aging roster is a sure sign that the talent has been maxed out. To Vinny Cerrato and Dan Snyder, it's a never-ending indication that the 'Skins are one player away from winning it all. I'm not saying Vick is that guy. I'm saying given the right circumstances, a healthy year on the offensive line, and basic progress from JC17, a well-utilized Vick could help put up enough points to make the offense respectable again. The 'Skins D and running game remain their strong points, and if healthy could do some postseason damage. It's getting there that's the issue. So as long as we're stuck with a front office and owner playing this game, Vick is worth a look.

6.) The offense needs hope. If there was one thing that defined the Redskins offense in the second half of 2008 - other than three-and-outs - it was the look and feeling of hopelessness. Early in the year the group was unstoppable, and they had the swag. As passes starting slipping through hands, Jansen opened the Sack Gates, and Portis' injuries caught up to him finally, they lost it. And what have they done since the disastrous 2008 finale? Precisely dick. Unless you believe in UFOs, you realize that Devin Thomas is a joke and Malcolm Kelly's knees are made of peanut brittle and there's no such thing as an NFL offense with two tight end weapons. The cavalry isn't coming from those three.

But inject Vick into a locker room with stable vets and leaders and it's an instant spark. Suddenly you have a guy turning heads in practice, adding that 'wow' factor, that extra ingredient that Randel El was supposed to provide but can't, since he is 5' 2" in real life and was never that good. Sometimes that's all it takes for a football team to make it over the hump.

Now Vinny, get on the phone with the Falcons and send next year's 1st, 3rd, and 5th into oblivion and make this happen. Even if Gooddell doesn't reinstate, what do we have to lose? They're just draft picks.

***

 So maybe we had the position thing wrong, and maybe Vick couldn't survive in the Redskin player development wasteland, but he was definitely worth a shot. And apologies to dog lovers, but considering their pasts, I have a harder time rooting for McNabb than I do the Vick resurrection story.

(Image courtesy of www.sportsfanlive.com)

I Told You So

You know the mark of a true baseball savant? Predicting the Cy Young Award winners in the preseason. Picking the Rockies to win the NL pennant was just my risk-taking side creeping out. You hear that ladies, I'm a risk taker.

Anyway our preseason predictions were nothing special, save for one special line from yours truly:

Cy Young Picks

Rico Fantastic - Felix Hernandez, SEA (AL); Clayton Kershaw, LAD (NL)
Red Rover - Brett Anderson, OAK (AL); Tim Lincecum, SF (NL)
Marion's Crackpipe - Felix Hernandez, SEA (AL); Roy Halladay, PHI (NL)
Iafrate's Baldspot - Jon Lester, BOS (AL); Roy Halladay, PHI (NL)

Victory is mine!

(Image courtesy of blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com)

Quietly.......The Caps are The Best Team in NHL......Again

Didn't it seem like the Caps started the season with a hangover from the thing I will not mention? That thing is hanging over this year's team and has somehow put a clock on a young team's window of opportunity.

Close games, not completely obliterating the league in historic fashion, have this underachieving team in 1st place.........in the entire NHL. That's right.

• We lead the league in points and are 2nd in goal differential.
• No surprise, first in goals per game at 3.63
• The powerplay that did actually start slow is now up to 7th in the league 
• The penalty kill that started fast is still 13th in the league

Forget Lebron, last year, we were witnesses. This year hasn't brought the same awesome spectacle....yet, but this team is picking up steam. Don't forget that the Caps didn't lost any key guys from last year, and the majority of the team is at the age when they are improving - the opposite of the Redskins.

The understated excitement for this team probably has a lot to do with the expectation that the Caps will have a high seed in the playoffs, and very little matters until the Spring when past demons could derail this regular season juggernaut. Let's worry about that then, in the meantime, enjoy the ride.

(Image courtesy of cbcsports.ca)

The Thinking Man's Take on the McNabb Contract

A loss like that almost makes you forget that the Skins made a franchise-altering decision by giving Donovan McNabb an extension. But really, this contract holds much greater importance for the franchise than Michael Vick looking like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl.

Unfortunately for us long suffering fans, this decision is an absolutely awful one, and a reflection that past mistakes are continuing. The idiocy behind this decision goes way deeper than money.

First, I want go back to this summer, when the Skins decided to drop Jason Campbell and trade for McNabb. The Skins stubborn refusal to rebuild seemed poised to change with a new GM and Coach, but as we all know, there is something in the water around Ashburn...and by something in the water I mean Dan Snyder's kool-aid.

The Skins were 4-12, low on draft picks and in obvious of an absolute teardown. Instead? The team decided to trade a 2nd and what I believe will be a 4th round pick for a 33 year-old quarterback who ranked as very mediocre last year. By Football Outsiders metrics, in 2009, McNabb ranked 20th on a per play basis and 16th in total production. By the less telling quarterback rating, McNabb ranked 12th last year. You can sell the leadership angle all you want, but 33 years old and mediocre with declining production is not a good idea. There is no rejuvenation machine.

Meanwhile, the Skins already had a mediocre guy in JC. A 28 year old who in 2009 was 25th on a per play basis, 20th in total production, and 15th in QB rating. Campbell's 2009 numbers are worse than McNabb's, but he was playing with one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. If you want to bring up McNabb's leadership, then you have to be open to the counter that Campbell might have more growth left in him than the average 28 year old QB, as someone whose literally had to learn a different offense for every of his football life since his freshman year at Auburn. I could go into some guestimating that Campbell and McNabb's respective performances last year were not very different, while Campbell was/is cheaper and younger.

Fortunately, Football Outsiders decided to tackle this very subject the day before the McNabb deal was signed. For those of you without Insider, FO uses 'similarity scores' to find comparable players, and Campbell's 2007-2009 stretch shows a lot of players, "on the verge of something great, or at least prepared for multiyear stretches with high levels of performance." Meanwhile, McNabb's 2007-2009 compares to a bunch of guys who, "were about to see serious downturns in starting time and overall production." These are not 100% predictive measures, but strong indicators. As FO states, "Is McNabb headed for a similar downturn? Prorated to a 16-game schedule, his 2010 stats certainly indicate it." Yeah, we noticed. But wait, there's more,

"The Redskins may have wished for the McNabb who came of age a decade ago, but again, it could be argued that they already had that player and let him go. When running similarity scores for McNabb's three-year period from 2002 through 2004 -- you know, the one that included three conference championships and ended in a Super Bowl -- the comparisons are even more interesting. Behind the Steve McNair of 2001, the second-closest comparison sticks out like a sore thumb: Jason Campbell, 2009."  

Wow. It would have been nice to bring this to our attention 8 months ago. You get the impression though that FO's article could have been planted on Snyder's desk this Spring and it wouldn't have made a smidgen of difference.

This is a prime example of the biggest problem with the Redskins in the Snyder era, and that is a refusal to rebuild with youth. It doesn't get more clear cut than the veteran McNabb blocking a younger Campbell. So Campbell may have been slightly worse, but to give up 2 high draft picks and take a 33 year old over a 28 year old is outrageous for a 4-12 team.

That is why this contract's atrocity goes beyond the money. Furthermore, the one thing the the Redskins have done well over the years is manage the salary cap. This team has never really been inhibited in the ability to sign someone to a contract, and continually throws money around. The problem with this team has never been the execution in signing these guys, but rather the plan in going after veterans at the expense of youth and rebuilding. The money the Skins gave McNabb is indeed outrageously high for a player of his caliber, but it doesn't matter.

What does matter is that we are committing to McNabb. I know the Skins have an out after this season, but you are kidding yourself if you think McNabb isn't going to be the starting Redskin QB for at least next season. As FO concludes,

"This situation may not affect the Redskins in the long term; McNabb is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2010 season is done, and he may take his talents elsewhere in the offseason. But if the Redskins actually do succeed in signing McNabb to a long-term deal, past and present trends indicate that it could be a dangerous risk ... and that Campbell may have been the smarter choice all along."

Even worse than being saddled with a bad QB when we had a better and cheaper option in-house, is what this deal shows about the franchise direction: the Redskins are again refusing to admit a mistake and rebuild. We never should have expected otherwise, as Jamie Mottram of MisterIrrelevant.com and Jack Kogod pointed out, 'The McNabb contract was the inevitable conclusion of the McNabb trade.' Admitting a mistake is difficult, especially in an organization with a high turnover rate, but the trade is a sunk cost and this floundering team should cut its losses.

Not only is the rebuild delayed (I know, any chance of a rebuild under Snyder, ever, is optimistic), but as long as McNabb is the QB of this team, we will not be good; the Monday night loss underscored the state of the franchise. What this contract really means is that the next few years will continue to be excruciating if we are not already numb.

(Campbell and McNabb image couresty of inewscatcher.com and McNabb image courtesy of bleacherreport.com)