Confessions of a Half-Hearted Wizards Fan

So Gilbert Arenas has been suspended for the remainder of the 2009-2010 NBA season. Who cares?

I might have had a different response had this news dropped between the year 2005 and October 27, 2009 which was the last time I was hopeful about the Wizards as a playoff caliber team. Man did they look good that day. Teamwork, ball movement, defense, scoring depth, consistency and, most importantly, a dominant Alpha Dog: Agent Zero looked like he was back!

In the modern NBA, if you don't have that, you have nothing. I've painstakingly constructed this Rico Fantastic-style chart* of NBA squads over the last 20 years who have won it all without a top-5 player:

Team Season
Pistons 2003-2004

*Chart not scientific.

I thought Gilbert could be that top-5 guy the Wizards never had. Due to some freakish psychosis, Gil has always been at his best when he is pissed, which he's found reason to be throughout his career. He was knocking on that top-5 door before his injury; I was certain as of October that he would emerge from his latest bout of adversity ready to knock that door down for good. I took his media silence to mean quiet determination.

He seemed pissed at the world, didn't he? Am I alone on this? I was ready to witness (pardon the term) his final leap from shoot-first All-Star to transcendent team player: the guy who made everyone around him better, unafraid to put away the slow-bleeders with a 3-point dagger, game winning steal, or to sink those 4th quarter foul shots courtesy of the NBA's star-treatment system. If for no other reason than to show us wrong.

The days when hope reigned. *sigh*

That same freakish psychosis I hoped would mature him into the best instead manifested itself as immaturity that has made him, frankly, the worst. The worst teammate, the worst defensive player in the league, the worst franchise player in a league riddled with terrible ones, and now the worst contract. Instead of taking advantage of the deepest roster and best coach he has ever had, he let his weakest of his teammates bring out his dark side. Even before the guns it was clear this season that I'd be wrong. The gun incident confirmed it; this suspension is just another drop in the bucket.

Without that hope, I can't bring myself to care about the Wizards anymore. It's the nature of the NBA. Any other sport there is always hope for next year. Without LeBron or Kobe or Wade or Duncan there is none in basketball. With the Caps currently bludgeoning the league into submission, I've got enough to occupy my fan energy, anyways. I'm drooling like a Pavlovian dog at the latest Redskins off-season hire previous negativity notwithstanding. I'm busy. So someone wake me when the Wizards luck into the next NBA Superstar. Until then...yawn.

"Making History", Starring the Washington Capitals

I sure as hell hope I don't jinx the Caps with this post...

That being said, at a 3.81 goals per game rate through 52 games, this Caps offense is the best to grace the NHL in 14 years (and 13 seasons). The last team to light the lamp that often was the 1995-1996 version of the Pittsburgh Penguins at 4.4 goals per game.*

Anyway, aside from the '05-'06 Senators squad (3.80), no team since '95-96 has even come close to the Caps' offensive potency this season. Take a look:

The two mains things I take from this data tear me apart. Our Caps team is making history, but is that really a good thing? The last team to lead the league in goals during the regular season and win the Stanley Cup was the 1991-1992 Pittsburgh Penguins.

Yes, the above data ignores all things Defense/Goaltending/Ovechkin. But what it blatantly points out is that this year's Capitals are making (at least recent) history. While it's important to put regular season ouput in perspective of the larger goal, I also don't like to take great things for granted. We are truly watching something special.

And by the way, 7-0-0 since the Ovechkin-Downie turning point.

*Interestingly enough, both Colorado (3.98) and Detroit (3.96) averaged more goals per game in '95-'96 than this version of the Caps. Down year for goalies, huh?

Plotty: State of the Terps 5 Games Before Duke

Former DCLS writer "Plotty", self-proclaimed Jay Gibbons supporter and meatball sub enthusiast, checks in with us today on Maryland basketball.

“Ahhhh yes, the fun has officially started in College Park with a huge conference win against FSU. Can we just agree to skip to the part where the Terps are squarely on the bubble before losing at Virginia in the final game again? (Joey Flyntz)” –  D.C. Sports Bog Atlantic 11 Local Poll 1/11/2010

        
Given their penchant for inconsistency, you’d be forgiven for not paying the 2010 Terrapins iteration an early season hosanna. When the perennial also-ran Tribe of William and Mary blows you out at home, on the heels of three predictable non-conference losses, seizure-leg (h/t city of Atlanta, Georgia) is not just premature, it’s moronic until you put up a W against a team worth salt.

On the one hand, it’s completely foolhardy that the off-season alone would translate into wins in the early go-round; just ask Jordan Williams if squaring-up Nova’s Isiah Armwood in the freshman’s fifth collegiate game is a more difficult assignment than checking run-of-the-mill Connecticut prep-schoolers. It wasn’t inconceivable that Maryland would take early-season lumps; the question on the mind of fans, indeed many in the country, concerned whether these lumps would precipitate a predictable stretch of sub-par play, or had Vasquez-Hayes-Milbourne experienced three years of mediocrity too many.

For what it’s worth, four games into conference, Gary Williams & Co. have forged an identity befitting a legitimate ACC contender. No, not every outcome will be as lopsided as North Carolina State. And while every conference game is usually a battle, Clemson, UNC, and UVA should present even stiffer competition than NCST. With half the season under his belt, Jordan Williams is averaging an ACC second-best 7.9 RPG among freshman, and is the best fifth-option Gary could hope for as far as freshman bigs come; against one of the ACCs best in Tracy Smith, Williams played 27 high-intensity, physical rebounding, zero-turnover minutes, to go along with nine points and nine boards. And while the aforementioned senior trio has continued to impress, the key to success for a run at the Atlantic Coast crown lies in the continued progress of combo guards Sean Mosley, Cliff Tucker, and Adrian Bowie. While Greivis is the unquestioned pulse and first offensive option, Mosley may be the teams’ best stalwart defender, to say nothing of his shooting prowess. As the sixth-man in the rotation, the 6’6’’ Cliff Tucker has been spelling both Hayes and Vasquez and shooting lights-out of late, connecting on 4 of 6 field goals against the Wolfpack and showing tremendous basket-to-basket finesse. As a ball-handler/slasher, Bowie may not (and doesn’t need to) be in the immediate plans to contribute, but when he too has a zero turnover performance (and only two in the last four games), he’s a great weapon in Gary’s arsenal.

For the first time since the championship season, I am pleased with the Terps play just past the mid-season point. Pleased, and for the first time in forever hopeful that the teams best play is in front of them. #11 in the country? No. The Terps have five games in-between traveling to Durham, and performances like NCST against better ACC competitors should provide a better view what this team intends on playing for come March. Hopefully, not just entry into the Big Dance, but the title of the ACCs best.

-Plotty

Try to Block This Out

I have been trying to think happy thoughts about Agent Zero's contract, but have been hearing from several sources that it is extremely unlikely the Wiz can get out from the Arenas albatross. Hearsay, I say, but then I read this piece from ESPN's legal writer, Lester Munson. As he states,

"The constitutional provision specifically limits commissioner David Stern's powers over gun violations. He can suspend a player for a "definite or indefinite" period, and he can fine a player as much as $50,000. But that's it. That is the beginning and the end of any punishment for a gun violation. There is no provision for terminating the player's contract."

Cockandballs
(Image courtesy of washingtonpost.com)

Conference Championship Picks: Please Peyton

Out goes the Cowgirls and Norv Turner, now only Mark Sanchez and Brett Favre to go, and both of those guys are underdogs.

This Redskins offseason has already been a success, with the hiring of competent management and coaches, and all the NFC East rivals going down before the Conference Championship. Let's hope this hot streak carries through the draft.

On to the picks..........FO's 'locks of the week' are 11-15 with no 'locks' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 32-41, and their 'stay away' picks are 88-69. Please note that differences in total games picked is a result of us using slightly different spreads.

The standings (with pushes excluded):
Sports Guy: 3-1 last week 136-121 overall (52.9%)
FO: 1-3 last week, 131-125 overall (51.1%)
DCLS: 2-2 last week, 116-126 overall (47.9%)

As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence with home teams in CAPS.

1. New York Jets +8 over INDIANAPOLIS -Let's see, I want the Colts to win, realize Peyton over Sanchize is the biggest mismatch I can think of since the random dude at the bar in Jersey Shore over Snookie, but I think 8 points is just a bit too high. That said, I'm hoping for a lot of the above picture on Sunday. That said, Rex Ryan at media day would be phenomenal.
   
2. Minnesota +4 over NEW ORLEANS - FO has the Saints with a 51% chance of winning this game straight-up, so has these two teams virtually even. I still am not a Vikings believer, and although Reggie Bush had an out of body experience last game that he will not repeat, I still like the Saints to win. Yeah the Redksins played the Saints close and this fact pisses me off, but Favre going to the Super Bowl would be intolerable. On the bright side, Brad Childress at media day would be phenomenal.
   

If everything breaks our way, we will be Favre and Sanchez free, and definitively having the best offseason in recent Redskin memory.

Update (1/23): I can't take backing the Jets anymore, its making me slightly dizzy. I also can't stand backing a team I don't think can win, so I just switched my pick to the Peytons.

(Image courtesy of turnonthejets.com)

Caps @ Penguins, 7:30 ET

Caps vs. Penguins. Ovechkin vs. Crosby. Good vs. Evil. Man vs. Boy.

And if that doesn't do it for you what the hell will? here's some Bloody Penguin Baseball. Or just play the below video. On repeat, preferably.

Oh lordy do I miss hearing this music.

Worst Wizards Jerseys Ever

Welcome to the long-awaited 4th part in this painful series of worst jerseys for all of our beloved professional DC-area teams. The Redskin and Oriole lists were painful but maybe slightly therapeutic, while the Nats list was just pathetic.

With the Wizards season beyond the point of anger and bordering on disinterest, I think it is an appropriate time to reflect on the horrendous history of this franchise by ranking the worst Bullets/Wizards jerseys that a 'fan' can own today. Once again, here is the criteria for the list:
The jersey must be one that would make fellow fans either:

1. Angry
2. Disgusted
3. Think the guy wearing the jersey is an idiot

Please note that any jerseys that are funny bad are not included, and with the pathetic history of the Bullets/Wizards, there are a lot of jerseys that are more humorous than anger inducing. Without further ado, our bottom 10 in reverse order (least terrible to most terrible):

10) Michael Ruffin #51 - In addition to being a bad NBA player who probably should not have been in the league, all he reminds me of is this play against the Raptors.

9) Ben Wallace #30 - The talent that has passed through the Wizards/Bullets in the past 20 years is startling and infuriating; here is the first example of several on this list. In his years with the Wiz, he was a fan favorite as an energy guy, and was a rotation player with the potential to be more because he was so athletic and had great defenseive metrics. So why did we give him up? To acquire Ike freakingAustin! Not only that, but Big Ben was not the centerpiece of that deal by any means, so it is hard to believe the Wiz couldn't have held onto him while still acquiring Austin. Frustrating in1999, and infuriating now. He would be higher, but he was such a likable player when he was here.

8) Rasheed Wallace #30 - Amazing, we drafted him #4 overall, gave him 1 year at the ripe old age of 21, and then, in one of Wes Unseld's first moves as GM, traded him for Rod Strickland and Harvey Grant. Wes, we'll get back to you, so let's move on.....

7) Jerry Stackhouse #42 - He was a big name when we acquired him, but was really just an inefficient high volume scorer. More importantly we continue the trend here of trading a great young player, Rip Hamilton, to obtain an older overrated player. Thanks MJ.

6) Ike Austin #8 - And now the waste of space who cost us Big Ben Wallace and was somehow supposed to solve all of our problems at center. I have no idea what Wes Unseld saw in a guy who averaged under 10 ppg and 5 rpg while shooting about 40% from the field as a center! He would have still made this list if Ben Wallace hadn't been involved in the trade, but that just puts him over the top. I bet he is ridiculously fat now.

5) Juwan Howard #5 - Is this the first guy to definitely hold the title of worst contract in the NBA? Sure, he gave us some nice years, but his ridiculous beyond ridiculous contract courtesy of Wes Unseld was an albatross. Imagine if that money had been spent on C-Webb? My liver is squirming.....

4) Mitch Richmond #2 - Now the worst of Unseld's moves, trading C-Webb for a 33 yr old shooter. Trading young for old? check. Big for small? check. Multi-talented for pure scorer? check. Tremendous future potential for minimal if any current gains? check.

3) Michael Jordan #23 - Maybe we shouldn't have been sucked-in, but he brought so much false hope and as we now know, is a complete asshole. If you haven't read Michael Leahy's When Nothing Else Matters: Michael Jordan's Last Comeback, you should. The book shows Jordan's true side that we all saw during his HOF induction speech.

The one instance where this jersey is acceptable

2) Kwame Brown #5 - Labradford Smith and Tom Gugliotta jerseys are funny, Kwame's is not. Every time I get a glimmer of hope we will get the top pick and draft a franchise-changer, I feel feverish eyes thanks to memories/stories of Kwame crying in the locker room.

1) Gilbert Arenas #0 - I hope you aren't surprised. Where to begin? He isn't an all-star anymore, and will never be, dropped the fun personality, and is now the proud owner of the worst contract in the league.

Dishonorable Mention:
-Peter John Ramos #34
-Samaki Walker #52
-Courtney Alexander #4 - He should have been awesome after scoring 17 ppg as a 23 yr old, but was not.
-Jarvis Hayes #24 - I always hated him. Just a shooter who we wasted a pick and lot of minutes on. He missed making the top-10 by thismuch.

Gil is #1, hands-down, but what does everyone else think? Trust me, once you dig into the ugly memories, you will come out better, or at least not as pissed off about the current season.

(Images courtesy of washingtonpost.com and si.com)

Kiper Tabs Bradford as Skins QB of the Future...

...for now, at least.

From Mel Kiper's Mock Draft 1.0 (must be an ESPN Insider to read the full article):

4. Washington Redskins 

Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Mike Shanahan and the Redskins can get a quarterback here who might have been the top player taken had he opted to come out last year. The Redskins need to find their franchise quarterback, and when healthy, Bradford is an exceptionally accurate passer with an underrated arm. Shanahan also hit on his last QB selection when he drafted Jay Cutler in Denver.

How do I feel about this? Not great. Not quite sure what Kiper is getting at with that last sentence, either. Since when was Jay Cutler considered anything but a mediocre quarterback? Oh, that's right, last summer when Snyderrato nearly traded for the little douche.

If Shanahan/Allen really want to draft a QB, then I guess I'm okay with that. But please not with the 4th pick, and please not if Russell Okung - or the Offensive Lineman du jour - is available.

A better idea - trade LaRon Landry for a 5th round pick, then trade our 4th overall pick back for LaRon Landry! I jest...

Jeff Schultz Doesn't Need Your MVP-Caliber Goal Scoring to Feel Good About Himself

As we've all no doubt seen in the frenzy of recent profiles, tweets, blog posts, TV features and radio appearances, Jeff Schultz fever is (finally) spreading; more ink has been spilled over Jeff Schultz in recent weeks than has been spilled by the Jeff Schultz who spills ink for a living.

It's well-deserved, of course, for a player who, at age 23, has the second-highest plus/minus rating in the NHL, behind only his high-scoring teammate, Alex Ovechkin. It would be easy and perhaps logical to assume that the two statistics are related, that Schultz's +27 owes a great deal to Ovechkin's goal scoring exploits.

Wrong.

What if I told you that even-strength goals by Ovechkin account for only one-third of Schultz's plus/minus total?

What if I told you that even if all of Ovechkin's tallies were wiped from the scoresheets by some cosmic malfeasance, Schultz's plus/minus rating would still stand at +18?

What if I told you that a plus/minus rating of +18 would still place Schultz fifth among all defensemen, ahead of guys named Lidstrom and Pronger?

So while it would be easy to assume that Schultz's boat is being lifted by Ovechkin's high tide, it simply ain't true; Ovechkin has scored only nine even-strength goals with No. 55 on the ice.

Patient Capitals fans believed Schultz to be capable of this type of defensive prowess; his +13 at the end of 2008-09 hinted at it, at least. So what accounts for Schultz's dramatic statistical blossoming? Maturity and experience have to come in to play, for sure; the arrival of Bob Woods might certainly explain some of it, as well.

More likely, however, is that he's being paired with better teammates, specifically Mike Green and Tom Poti. Schultz's QualTeam has risen to .307 this season from .095 last season, placing him second among all blueliners except Green's "regular" partner, Shaone Morrisonn (.337).

With greater talent surrounding Schultz comes greater responsibility as well. Schultz's QualComp value has risen from -.006 in 2008-09 to .042 this season, which, among Caps blueliners with more than five games played, places him behind only Poti.

In short, Schultz is skating with more offensively-gifted teammates than ever before, while facing more offensively-gifted opponents. Put those two conditions into a calculator and the answer is +27, no matter who's scoring the goals.

Thanks to Behind the Net for the advanced statistics; for an explanation of QualTeam, QualComp and other stats, click here.

[Image via here]

Obligatory Make-Fun-of-the-Cowboys Post

For those who were wondering - yes, my buddy does have a Ween tattoo. Why the hell wouldn't he?!

And for the win (he was wearing this all game, brilliantly oblivious to that sad fact):